2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreORST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:21 · Dominic De Freitas 49 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingDefense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:32: David Wells Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +11.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:32: Timeout App State, clock 09:32 — APP win probability +9.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q2 4:10: Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +9.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Defense has -4 timeouts left).
- TD · Q3 8:41: JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 28 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +11.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:03: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK) — ORST win probability +17.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 13:15ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snapGo for it42.9%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.0%average punt
- Q1 8:21APP 4th & 9 at ORST 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snapGo for it57.3%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call57.3%54% to makePunt57.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:04ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snapGo for it38.5%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.9%average punt
- Q2 11:39ORST 4th & 3 at APP 11, down 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snapGo for it26.3%50% to convertField goalTheir call25.2%−1.187% to makePunt17.1%−9.2average punt
- Q2 10:16APP 4th & 4 at APP 26, up 17Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snapGo for it77.4%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:58APP 4th & 15 at APP 49, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snapGo for it65.5%−1.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.1%average punt
- Q2 0:30APP 4th & 10 at ORST 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snapGo for it60.0%−1.628% to convertField goalTheir call61.6%70% to makePunt56.6%−5.0average punt
- Q3 12:56APP 4th & 1 at APP 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt61.2%−1.7average punt
- Q3 0:50APP 4th & 5 at ORST 27, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snapGo for it65.1%41% to convertField goalTheir call65.1%−0.162% to makePunt54.9%−10.3average punt
- Q4 14:44ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snapGo for it29.4%−0.652% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.0%average punt
- Q4 13:25APP 4th & 11 at APP 34, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snapGo for it73.9%−2.926% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.8%average punt
- Q4 8:39APP 4th & 1 at APP 29, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 82.6% before the snapGo for it84.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%−3.2average punt
- Q4 1:49ORST 4th & 1 at APP 1, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.2%59% to convertField goal13.0%−19.294% to makePunt4.3%−27.8average punt
- Q4 0:30ORST 4th & 1 at APP 29, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.7%71% to convertField goal12.4%−14.258% to makePunt9.3%−17.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 6:49APP Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.8%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:38APP Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.5%97% to makeGo for two66.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:32ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.6%97% to makeGo for two31.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:10ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.9%97% to makeGo for two38.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:41APP Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.2%97% to makeGo for two77.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:03ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.4%97% to makeGo for two34.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartORSTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3349% → 49%
Q1 13:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
51.2%
AJ Winsor punt for 60 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 6 yds to the APP 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FG11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3251% → 53%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
51.2%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 13 yds to the APP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+26
51.6%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 26 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+4
52.2%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 4 yds to the ORST 39Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+8
52.0%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 8 yds to the ORST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3TD6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0954% → 56%
Q1 7:24
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
53.4%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 5 yds to the ORST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3645% → 43%
APPDrive 5TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2163% → 70%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.0%
(05:02) Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass incomplete short right to Dozier,Davion thrown to App32 QB hurried by Collins,Thomas PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Foster,Dexter) 2 yards from App25 to App27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+68
63.5%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 68 yds to the ORST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6MISSED FG15 plays · 64 yds · 6:5036% → 30%
Q1 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
64.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 16 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
64.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zack Card for 10 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
64.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 5 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
66.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 11 yds to the APP 18 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
66.8%
(14:01) Shotgun Hankerson,Anthony rush left for 1 yard loss to the App19 (Fleming,Cam; Cooper,DeNigel) PENALTY OSU Holding (Strand,Jacob) 10 yards from App18 to App28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+16
69.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 16 yds to the APP 12Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-1
69.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1881% → 82%
Q2 10:16
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
81.7%
Ian Ratliff punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD4 plays · 67 yds · 0:3226% → 37%
APPDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 1:2573% → 73%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
72.6%
PENALTY App Delay Of Game (Kohl,J.J.) 5 yards from App24 to App19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+35
72.7%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 35 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
74.6%
PENALTY App False Start (Flowers,Will) 5 yards from OSU46 to App49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
73.2%
Ian Ratliff punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD8 plays · 93 yds · 3:3933% → 43%
Q2 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+16
67.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 16 yds to the ORST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
69.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 19 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
68.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 22 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
67.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 23 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Emory Floyd) to the APP 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11MISSED FG16 plays · 54 yds · 3:2660% → 50%
ORSTDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2345% → 44%
APPDrive 13TD17 plays · 76 yds · 6:0460% → 77%
Q3 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-13
60.4%
JJ Kohl sacked by Zakaih Saez for a loss of 13 yards to the APP 15Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+18
58.9%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 18 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+10
61.5%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass incomplete short right to Stroman,Dalton thrown to OSU35 PENALTY OSU Holding (Glasper,Trey) 10 yards from OSU49 to OSU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
76.9%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 28 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2126% → 47%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 12 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
73.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 4 yds to the ORST 41Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+17
73.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 17 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
71.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 5 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+12
71.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 12 yds to the APP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
53.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15FG10 plays · 49 yds · 3:5861% → 73%
Q3 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+11
64.1%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 11 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0034% → 32%
APPDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1272% → 68%
Q4 13:25
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
68.4%
Ian Ratliff punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18INT10 plays · 69 yds · 2:4533% → 37%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
67.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 23 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
65.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 10 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
63.5%
(12:09) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete short left to Reddicks,Taz thrown to App40 PENALTY App Targeting (Burks,DJ) 15 yards from App42 to App27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+15
60.2%
(11:24) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete short left to Milbourn,Gabe thrown to App03, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY App Pass Interference (Hasz,Dylan) 15 yards from App22 to App07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
62.8%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted, touchback. Colton Phares return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4475% → 75%
Q4 8:39
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
75.4%
Ian Ratliff punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20DOWNS17 plays · 62 yds · 6:4429% → 25%
Q4 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+20
73.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 20 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
66.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 7 yds to the APP 38Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+14
66.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 14 yds to the APP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
66.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 5 yds to the APP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21SF3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0595% → 86%
ORSTDrive 22INT15 plays · 19 yds · 1:0928% → 47%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
72.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 8 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-5
70.6%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Wells,Van) 5 yards from App49 to OSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+16
73.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zack Card for 16 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
68.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 10 yds to the APP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
64.2%
(00:34) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete short right to Reddicks,Taz thrown to App26, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY App Pass Interference (Mc-Cantos,Elijah) 4 yards from App29 to App25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-13
55.8%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Rondo Porter for a loss of 13 yards to the APP 38Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 23
OPP 38
-9
53.5%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Zyeir Gamble return for 9 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 23
OPP 38
-9
53.5%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Zyeir Gamble return for 9 yds to the APP 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:03
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
-17.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.8
TD · Q3 8:41
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 28 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
+11.3