ORST
Oregon State 23 at App State 27
APP2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey play
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ORST · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q1 14:55
Dominic De Freitas kickoff for 60 yds , David Wells Jr. return for 20 yds to the ORST 25
50.8%
0.0
Q1 14:48
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the ORST 29
47.9%
-2.9
Q1 14:11
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 32
47.3%
-0.6
Q1 13:30
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz Reddicks
47.3%
0.0
Q1 13:15
AJ Winsor punt for 60 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 6 yds to the APP 14
47.3%
0.0
APP · Drive 2FG · 11 plays · 55 yds
Q1 12:53
JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 13 yds to the APP 27 for a 1ST down
51.1%
+3.8
Q1 12:35
Rashod Dubinion run for 9 yds to the APP 36
51.1%
0.0
Q1 12:04
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST down
51.3%
+0.3
Q1 11:36
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Izayah Cummings
52.0%
+0.7
Q1 11:29
Jaquari Lewis run for 2 yds to the APP 42
52.0%
0.0
Q1 10:50
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 26 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST down
51.7%
-0.3
Q1 10:23
JJ Kohl pass complete to Kanen Hamlett for 3 yds to the ORST 35
53.6%
+1.8
Q1 9:44
JJ Kohl pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 4 yds to the ORST 39
53.6%
0.0
Q1 9:04
JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 8 yds to the ORST 31
53.4%
-0.1
Q1 8:21
Dominic De Freitas 49 yd FG GOOD
58.1%
+4.7
Q1 8:21
Timeout App State, clock 08:21
52.2%
-5.9
APP · Drive 3TD · 6 plays · 18 yds
Q1 8:13
Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds , David Wells Jr. return for 18 yds to the ORST 18 David Wells Jr. fumbled, recovered by APP Ronnie Porter
56.1%
+3.8
Q1 7:58
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the ORST 11
57.8%
+1.7
Q1 7:34
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman
57.8%
0.0
Q1 7:24
JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 5 yds to the ORST 6 for a 1ST down
57.6%
-0.2
Q1 6:49
JJ Kohl run for 6 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
71.4%
+13.8
Q1 6:49
Timeout App State, clock 06:49
53.9%
-17.5
ORST · Drive 4PUNT · 7 plays · 12 yds
Q1 6:49
Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
72.3%
+18.4
Q1 6:40
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 8 yds to the ORST 33
68.1%
-4.2
Q1 6:10
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST down
68.6%
+0.5
Q1 5:32
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Anthony Hankerson
68.6%
0.0
Q1 5:25
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Eddie Freauff
68.6%
0.0
Q1 5:20
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz Reddicks
68.6%
0.0
Q1 5:04
AJ Winsor punt for 52 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 14 yds to the APP 25
68.6%
0.0
APP · Drive 5TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q1 5:04
Timeout App State, clock 05:04
72.0%
+3.4
Q1 4:59
(05:02) Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass incomplete short right to Dozier,Davion thrown to App32 QB hurried by Collins,Thomas PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Foster,Dexter) 2 yards from App25 to App27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
72.0%
0.0
Q1 4:38
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 68 yds to the ORST 5 for a 1ST down
72.0%
0.0
Q1 4:09
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ORST 2
72.6%
+0.6
Q1 3:38
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
83.2%
+10.6
ORST · Drive 6MISSED FG · 15 plays · 64 yds
Q1 3:36
Cash McVay kickoff for 59 yds
83.1%
-0.2
Q1 3:29
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 27
79.9%
-3.2
Q1 2:46
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 16 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST down
79.9%
0.0
Q1 2:07
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 46
81.8%
+1.9
Q1 1:23
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zack Card for 10 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
81.6%
-0.1
Q1 0:53
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 5 yds to the APP 39
80.5%
-1.1
Q1 0:00
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the APP 35
82.4%
+1.9
Q2 14:53
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the APP 29 for a 1ST down
82.3%
-0.1
Q2 14:15
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 11 yds to the APP 18 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
82.3%
0.0
Q2 13:56
(14:01) Shotgun Hankerson,Anthony rush left for 1 yard loss to the App19 (Fleming,Cam; Cooper,DeNigel) PENALTY OSU Holding (Strand,Jacob) 10 yards from App18 to App28. NO PLAY.
82.3%
0.0
Q2 13:30
Timeout App State, clock 13:30
82.3%
0.0
Q2 13:22
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 16 yds to the APP 12
82.3%
0.0
Q2 12:56
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the APP 10
82.3%
0.0
Q2 12:15
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 11
82.3%
0.0
Q2 11:39
Caleb Ojeda 28 yd FG MISSED
82.4%
+0.1
APP · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q2 11:39
Timeout App State, clock 11:39
84.2%
+1.8
Q2 11:34
Jaquari Lewis run for 2 yds to the APP 22
84.2%
0.0
Q2 11:03
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Izayah Cummings
83.7%
-0.5
Q2 10:51
JJ Kohl run for 4 yds to the APP 26
84.6%
+0.9
Q2 10:16
Ian Ratliff punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 33
84.4%
-0.2
ORST · Drive 8TD · 4 plays · 67 yds
Q2 10:16
Timeout App State, clock 10:16
82.3%
-2.2
Q2 10:04
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 37 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST down
83.4%
+1.1
Q2 9:32
David Wells Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
66.5%
-16.9
Q2 9:32
Timeout App State, clock 09:32
85.6%
+19.1
APP · Drive 9PUNT · 9 plays · 25 yds
Q2 9:24
Max Walker kickoff for 63 yds , Khamani Alexander return for 22 yds to the APP 24
70.3%
-15.3
Q2 9:23
PENALTY App Delay Of Game (Kohl,J.J.) 5 yards from App24 to App19. NO PLAY.
72.2%
+1.9
Q2 9:15
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden Barnes
72.2%
0.0
Q2 9:00
JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 35 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST down
72.2%
0.0
Q2 8:19
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman
72.6%
+0.5
Q2 8:19
PENALTY App False Start (Flowers,Will) 5 yards from OSU46 to App49. NO PLAY.
72.6%
0.0
Q2 8:14
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Alex Sanchez
73.5%
+0.9
Q2 8:07
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden Barnes
73.3%
-0.2
Q2 7:58
Ian Ratliff punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 7
72.8%
-0.5
ORST · Drive 10TD · 8 plays · 93 yds
Q2 7:49
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 9
73.2%
+0.4
Q2 7:09
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 16 yds to the ORST 25 for a 1ST down
73.2%
0.0
Q2 6:32
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent Walker
73.2%
0.0
Q2 6:21
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 19 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST down
73.2%
0.0
Q2 5:31
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 22 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST down
72.4%
-0.7
Q2 5:06
Anthony Hankerson run for 23 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Emory Floyd) to the APP 6 for a 1ST down
70.8%
-1.6
Q2 4:42
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the APP 3
71.0%
+0.2
Q2 4:10
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
53.7%
-17.2
APP · Drive 11MISSED FG · 16 plays · 54 yds
Q2 4:03
Max Walker kickoff for 62 yds , Khamani Alexander return for 20 yds to the APP 23
56.8%
+3.0
Q2 3:56
Jaquari Lewis run for 2 yds to the APP 25
58.8%
+2.0
Q2 3:21
JJ Kohl pass complete to David Larkins for 11 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST down
58.8%
0.0
Q2 3:00
Jaquari Lewis run for 17 yds to the ORST 47 for a 1ST down
59.3%
+0.5
Q2 2:20
JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 2 yds to the ORST 45
60.1%
+0.8
Q2 2:00
Timeout App State, clock 02:00
60.0%
-0.1
Q2 1:53
Jaquari Lewis run for 11 yds to the ORST 34 for a 1ST down
60.0%
0.0
Q2 1:29
Jaquari Lewis run for 6 yds to the ORST 28
60.4%
+0.4
Q2 1:00
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the ORST 23 for a 1ST down
60.4%
0.0
Q2 1:00
Timeout App State, clock 01:00
60.4%
0.0
Q2 0:48
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Kanen Hamlett
60.4%
0.0
Q2 0:43
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Kanen Hamlett
60.4%
0.0
Q2 0:43
Timeout App State, clock 00:43
73.6%
+13.3
Q2 0:36
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Davion Dozier
73.6%
0.0
Q2 0:36
Timeout App State, clock 00:36
67.7%
-6.0
Q2 0:30
Dominic De Freitas 41 yd FG MISSED
67.7%
0.0
ORST · Drive 12END OF HALF · 2 plays · 5 yds
Q2 0:23
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz Reddicks
46.5%
-21.1
Q2 0:00
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 5 yds to the ORST 28
47.4%
+0.8
APP · Drive 13TD · 17 plays · 76 yds
Q3 14:54
Max Walker kickoff for 65 yds , Khamani Alexander return for 24 yds to the APP 24
54.5%
+7.1
Q3 14:45
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 28
59.0%
+4.5
Q3 14:09
JJ Kohl sacked by Zakaih Saez for a loss of 13 yards to the APP 15
59.0%
0.0
Q3 13:33
Rashod Dubinion run for 18 yds to the APP 33
59.0%
0.0
Q3 12:56
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST down
58.5%
-0.6
Q3 12:18
Jaquari Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 34
59.1%
+0.6
Q3 11:46
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman
59.1%
0.0
Q3 11:32
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 18 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST down
59.1%
0.0
Q3 10:58
Jaquari Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 49
60.4%
+1.3
Q3 10:23
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaquari Lewis
60.4%
0.0
Q3 10:17
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass incomplete short right to Stroman,Dalton thrown to OSU35 PENALTY OSU Holding (Glasper,Trey) 10 yards from OSU49 to OSU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
60.2%
-0.2
Q3 10:11
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the ORST 35
63.2%
+3.0
Q3 9:38
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the ORST 28 for a 1ST down
63.5%
+0.3
Q3 9:06
Jaquari Lewis run for no gain to the ORST 28
63.5%
0.0
Q3 8:58
Timeout App State, clock 08:58
63.7%
+0.2
Q3 8:41
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 28 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
78.1%
+14.4
Q3 8:41
Timeout App State, clock 08:41
55.4%
-22.6
ORST · Drive 14TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q3 8:41
Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
77.8%
+22.4
Q3 8:24
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 12 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST down
76.3%
-1.6
Q3 7:59
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 4 yds to the ORST 41
76.3%
0.0
Q3 7:30
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 17 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST down
76.3%
0.0
Q3 6:58
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 10 yds to the APP 32 for a 1ST down
75.4%
-0.9
Q3 6:20
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 5 yds to the APP 27
74.8%
-0.5
Q3 5:35
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 12 yds to the APP 15 for a 1ST down
74.8%
0.0
Q3 5:03
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
54.0%
-20.8
Q3 5:03
Timeout App State, clock 05:03
78.7%
+24.7
APP · Drive 15FG · 10 plays · 49 yds
Q3 4:56
Max Walker kickoff for 64 yds , Khamani Alexander return for 23 yds to the APP 24
57.0%
-21.7
Q3 4:48
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 28
61.9%
+4.9
Q3 4:11
Rashod Dubinion run for 29 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST down
61.9%
-0.1
Q3 3:30
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ORST 43
63.5%
+1.6
Q3 2:54
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Davion Dozier
64.1%
+0.6
Q3 2:39
JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 11 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST down
63.8%
-0.2
Q3 2:07
Jaquari Lewis run for 4 yds to the ORST 28
64.1%
+0.2
Q3 1:27
JJ Kohl run for 1 yd to the ORST 27
64.1%
0.0
Q3 0:56
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Rashod Dubinion
63.8%
-0.2
Q3 0:50
Dominic De Freitas 45 yd FG GOOD
72.3%
+8.5
ORST · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q3 0:50
Cash McVay kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.5%
-0.8
Q3 0:44
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.
62.9%
-8.6
Q3 0:00
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 7 yds to the ORST 32
62.9%
0.0
Q4 14:55
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz Reddicks
62.9%
0.0
Q4 14:44
AJ Winsor punt for 43 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 10 yds to the APP 35
62.9%
0.0
APP · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · -1 yds
Q4 14:44
Timeout App State, clock 14:44
72.9%
+10.0
Q4 14:37
JJ Kohl sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 34
72.9%
0.0
Q4 14:02
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the APP 34
72.9%
0.0
Q4 13:31
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Jaden Barnes
72.9%
0.0
Q4 13:25
Ian Ratliff punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 25
72.4%
-0.5
ORST · Drive 18INT · 10 plays · 69 yds
Q4 13:25
Timeout App State, clock 13:25
64.1%
-8.3
Q4 13:14
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 23 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST down
65.3%
+1.2
Q4 12:43
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Zack Card
64.1%
-1.2
Q4 12:36
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 10 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST down
64.1%
0.0
Q4 12:06
(12:09) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete short left to Reddicks,Taz thrown to App40 PENALTY App Targeting (Burks,DJ) 15 yards from App42 to App27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
65.1%
+1.0
Q4 11:58
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the APP 22
64.5%
-0.7
Q4 11:19
(11:24) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete short left to Milbourn,Gabe thrown to App03, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY App Pass Interference (Hasz,Dylan) 15 yards from App22 to App07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
64.5%
0.0
Q4 11:13
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the APP 6
64.5%
0.0
Q4 10:36
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Gabe Milbourn
65.0%
+0.5
Q4 10:29
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted, touchback. Colton Phares return for no gain
65.0%
0.0
APP · Drive 19PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q4 10:23
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the APP 22
77.9%
+12.9
Q4 9:51
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the APP 23
78.2%
+0.3
Q4 9:05
JJ Kohl run for 6 yds to the APP 29
78.1%
-0.1
Q4 8:39
Ian Ratliff punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 35
77.6%
-0.5
ORST · Drive 20DOWNS · 17 plays · 62 yds
Q4 8:39
Timeout App State, clock 08:39
69.9%
-7.7
Q4 8:33
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.
69.9%
0.0
Q4 8:26
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for no gain to the ORST 35
69.9%
0.0
Q4 7:39
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 20 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
69.9%
0.0
Q4 7:13
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 7 yds to the APP 38
68.7%
-1.2
Q4 6:26
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 14 yds to the APP 24 for a 1ST down
68.4%
-0.3
Q4 6:01
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the APP 20
67.8%
-0.6
Q4 5:16
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 5 yds to the APP 15
69.6%
+1.9
Q4 4:40
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the APP 14 for a 1ST down
68.2%
-1.5
Q4 3:52
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zack Card for 7 yds to the APP 7
68.9%
+0.7
Q4 3:19
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the APP 3 for a 1ST down
70.5%
+1.7
Q4 2:31
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the APP 1
72.8%
+2.3
Q4 2:24
Timeout App State, clock 02:24
74.7%
+1.9
Q4 2:01
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the APP 1
74.5%
-0.2
Q4 2:00
Timeout App State, clock 02:00
74.5%
0.0
Q4 1:56
Timeout App State, clock 01:56
75.0%
+0.5
Q4 1:49
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 3
75.0%
0.0
APP · Drive 21SF · 3 plays · -6 yds
Q4 1:45
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the APP 3
86.1%
+11.1
Q4 1:44
Timeout App State, clock 01:44
91.3%
+5.1
Q4 1:40
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds for a SAFETY Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by APP JJ Kohl for a SAFETY
87.6%
-3.7
ORST · Drive 22INT · 15 plays · 19 yds
Q4 1:33
Cash McVay kickoff for 60 yds , David Wells Jr. return for 23 yds to the ORST 43
87.6%
0.0
Q4 1:28
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 8 yds to the APP 49
72.2%
-15.5
Q4 1:23
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.
70.5%
-1.7
Q4 1:23
PENALTY OSU False Start (Wells,Van) 5 yards from App49 to OSU46. NO PLAY.
70.5%
0.0
Q4 1:15
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zack Card for 16 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST down
72.0%
+1.5
Q4 1:00
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 10 yds to the APP 28 for a 1ST down
73.9%
+2.0
Q4 1:00
Timeout App State, clock 01:00
64.6%
-9.3
Q4 0:39
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the APP 29
65.1%
+0.5
Q4 0:35
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Cornell Hatcher Jr.
65.1%
0.0
Q4 0:30
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz Reddicks
65.1%
0.0
Q4 0:30
(00:34) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete short right to Reddicks,Taz thrown to App26, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY App Pass Interference (Mc-Cantos,Elijah) 4 yards from App29 to App25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
65.1%
0.0
Q4 0:24
Maalik Murphy sacked by Rondo Porter for a loss of 13 yards to the APP 38
65.8%
+0.7
Q4 0:24
Timeout App State, clock 00:24
65.9%
+0.1
Q4 0:19
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Zyeir Gamble return for 9 yds to the APP 39
65.9%
0.0
Q4 0:19
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Zyeir Gamble return for 9 yds to the APP 39
65.9%
0.0
APP · Drive 23END OF GAME · 1 play · -4 yds
Q4 0:00
JJ Kohl run for a loss of 4 yards to the APP 35
89.5%
+23.6
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:03
Timeout App State, clock 05:03
+24.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
JJ Kohl run for a loss of 4 yards to the APP 35
+23.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:41
Timeout App State, clock 08:41
-22.6