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HOU

Houston 27 at Oregon State 24

ORST
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 26, 2025 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:10 · Liam Dougherty punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORST 30 , Trent Walker returns for 8 yds to the ORST 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 36Pregame prior−27.9Home team on offense+1.6Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:12: Jake Reichle 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick) — ORST win probability +2.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:43: Marquis Crosby 5 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick) — ORST win probability +6.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:47: Ethan Sanchez 25 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +2.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:31: Caleb Ojeda 31 Yd Field Goal — ORST win probability +7.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:34: Cornell Hatcher Jr. 18 Yd Run (Cameron Smith Kick) — ORST win probability +9.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:09ORST 4th & 12 at HOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:55ORST 4th & 10 at HOU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10HOU 4th & 17 at HOU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:47HOU 4th & 7 at ORST 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−6.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:05HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:59ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:18HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:31ORST 4th & 7 at HOU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−11.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:46HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:37HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:17HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 25, down 15
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:18ORST 4th & 5 at HOU 43, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:28HOU 4th & 4 at ORST 43, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:40ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 30, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:54ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:02HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 49, down 15
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:12ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:43ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:34ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:5619% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Anthony HankersonSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the ORST 33Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
19.2%
Jake Reichle run for 2 yds to the ORST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
19.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Marquis Crosby for 6 yds to the ORST 41Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+14
19.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 14 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
20.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-5
20.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 47 Anthony Hankerson fumbled, recovered by ORST Maalik MurphySimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
20.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent WalkerSimilar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
20.6%
Maalik Murphy punt for 33 ydsSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
20.7%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the HOU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:5519% → 19%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Anthony HankersonSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
19.2%
Jake Reichle run for 2 yds to the ORST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1579% → 78%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
20.7%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the HOU 18Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
20.9%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Amare ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-5
21.1%
Conner Weigman sacked by Jacob Schuster for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 13Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 11
OWN 13
+8
21.5%
Liam Dougherty punt for 40 yds , Trent Walker returns for 8 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
21.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5422% → 22%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
21.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr., broken up by Zelmar VedderSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
21.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the HOU 45Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
21.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Anthony Hankerson Oregon State Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (Yards) to the HOU 45Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
21.7%
AJ Winsor punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
22.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 6 yds to the HOU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2723% → 25%
Q1 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
22.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 6 yds to the HOU 1Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.6%
Jake Reichle 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:5776% → 73%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
23.9%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
24.2%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the HOU 36Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+8
24.7%
Dean Connors run for 8 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
24.9%
Conner Weigman run for no gain to the HOU 44 Houston Penalty, Offensive holding (Luke McGary) to the HOU 34Similar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
25.6%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stacy SneedSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 20
OWN 34
-2
25.7%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 22
OWN 32
+5
26.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 5 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 17
OWN 37
+8
27.0%
Liam Dougherty punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORST 30 , Trent Walker returns for 8 yds to the ORST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 6:2027% → 40%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
26.7%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
27.4%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the ORST 39Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
28.0%
Maalik Murphy run for 2 yds to the ORST 41 Maalik Murphy fumbled, recovered by ORST Cornell Hatcher Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
29.2%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the ORST 45Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
29.7%
Gabarri Johnson run for 4 yds to the ORST 49Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
29.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+30
31.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 30 yds to the HOU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
31.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+10
32.6%
Maalik Murphy run for 10 yds to the HOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the HOU 5Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.1%
Marquis Crosby 5 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
21 plays · 85 yds · 7:4762% → 56%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
37.7%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the HOU 20Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
38.5%
Amare Thomas run for 3 yds to the HOU 23Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+15
38.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 15 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
38.7%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
38.9%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the HOU 43Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
40.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
41.1%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+11
40.7%
DJ Butler run for 11 yds to the ORST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
41.4%
DJ Butler run for 4 yds to the ORST 19Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
42.5%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Luke McGarySimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+17
43.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 17 yds to the ORST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
43.4%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the ORST 2 Oregon State Penalty, substitution infraction (Yards) to the ORST 1Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
43.7%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the ORST 1 Houston Penalty, false start (Blake Thompson) to the ORST 6Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
44.3%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the ORST 5Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
44.9%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol, broken up by Aiden Sullivan for a 1ST down Oregon State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Aiden Sullivan) to the ORST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
45.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for no gain Houston Penalty, false start (Traville Frederick Jr.) to the ORST 7Similar
Q2 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
45.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stephon Johnson, broken up by Trey GlasperSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
45.1%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol Houston Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (Yards) to the ORST 7Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
46.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
44.0%
Ethan Sanchez 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4959% → 55%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
41.3%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 20Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-3
42.4%
Conner Weigman sacked by Jacob Schuster for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 17Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+3
44.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 3 yds to the HOU 20Similar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
45.3%
Liam Dougherty punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5544% → 47%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
43.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
43.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 31Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+5
43.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 5 yds to the ORST 36Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
47.2%
AJ Winsor punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3553% → 49%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Mekhi Mews for no gain to the HOU 20Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
47.6%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the HOU 20 Houston Penalty, Offensive holding (Demetrius Hunter) to the HOU 10Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
48.4%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+6
49.8%
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the HOU 16Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+3
51.2%
Liam Dougherty punt for 48 yds , Trent Walker returns for 3 yds to the ORST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:3952% → 64%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
51.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 22 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
54.3%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+14
56.1%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 14 yds to the HOU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
57.0%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the HOU 15Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+2
57.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 2 yds to the HOU 13Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
57.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr., broken up by Latrell McCutchin Sr.Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
64.3%
Caleb Ojeda 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4642% → 38%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.6%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Amare ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
58.2%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
59.3%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Amare Thomas, broken up by Conrad HusseySimilar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
61.6%
Liam Dougherty punt , Trent Walker returns for no gain to the HOU 40 Houston Penalty, Defensive holding (Shamar Meikle) to the HOU 40Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
61.8%
Liam Dougherty punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:5465% → 91%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
64.9%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the ORST 29Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
67.0%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the ORST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
66.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 5 yds to the ORST 36Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+8
70.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
72.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the ORST 48Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
75.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
75.3%
Houston Penalty, off-side (Jalen Garner) to the HOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
78.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the HOU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
78.0%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the HOU 36Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
77.9%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
80.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Gabe Milbourn for 10 yds to the HOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
80.6%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the HOU 18Similar
Q4 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
81.5%
Oregon State Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the HOU 8Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
91.4%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. 18 Yd Run (Cameron Smith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1111% → 9%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
89.1%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
89.4%
DJ Butler run for 2 yds to the HOU 19Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+6
90.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+34
90.8%
Liam Dougherty punt for 39 yds Houston Penalty, illegal shift (Koby Young) to the ORST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:5594% → 95%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
93.6%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the ORST 45 Cornell Hatcher Jr. fumbled, recovered by ORSTSimilar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
93.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
94.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
94.7%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
94.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Bryce CaufieldSimilar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
94.5%
Maalik Murphy punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:167% → 7%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
93.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 13 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
93.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 14 yds to the ORST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
93.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stacy Sneed for no gain to the HOU 49 Houston Penalty, Offensive holding (Alvin Ebosele) to the HOU 41Similar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+3
94.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 3 yds to the HOU 44Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 17
OWN 44
0
94.2%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Amare ThomasSimilar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 17
OWN 44
+13
94.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 13 yds to the ORST 43Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+16
94.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 16 yds to the ORST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
93.1%
Stephon Johnson 27 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1996% → 96%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.9%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the ORST 27Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
96.4%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent Walker, broken up by Wrook BrownSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
96.2%
AJ Winsor punt for 44 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 10 yds to the HOU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 0:504% → 4%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
96.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 8 yds to the HOU 44Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+6
95.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
50
0
96.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
50
+50
96.2%
Tanner Koziol 50 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4297% → 98%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
97.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 9 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
97.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
97.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 32Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
98.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+3
97.9%
AJ Winsor punt for 44 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 3 yds to the HOU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:433% → 3%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
97.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 18 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
97.0%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
97.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Stephon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
97.1%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Harvey Broussard IIISimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
97.3%
Liam Dougherty punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:5198% → 99%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
98.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 13Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
98.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the ORST 19Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
98.2%
Jake Reichle run for 3 yds to the ORST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
98.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 18 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
98.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 7 yds Maalik Murphy fumbled, recovered by ORSTSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
98.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Bryce CaufieldSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
98.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent Walker, broken up by Eddie Walls IIISimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+20
98.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 20 yds to the HOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+46
98.5%
Cameron Smith 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 92%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
96.8%
M.Murphy pass complete. Catch made by C.Hatcher for 1 yards. Tackled by HOU at HOU 24.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
96.8%
M.Murphy pass complete. Catch made by T.Reddicks for 8 yards. Tackled by HOU at HOU 16.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
93.7%
G.Johnson rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by HOU at HOU 16.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
92.4%
C.Hatcher rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by HOU at HOU 16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:003% → 3%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
97.2%
D.Connors rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by ORST at ORST 22.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
97.2%
D.Connors rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by ORST at ORST 21.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+12
97.3%
C.Weigman pass complete. Catch made by D.Connors for 12 yards. Tackled by ORST at ORST 9.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
97.2%
D.Connors rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by ORST at ORST 4.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.2%
C.Weigman kneels at the ORST 6.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
97.3%
E.Sanchez 24 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-J.Garza, Holder-J.Sock.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-97.3
TD · Q4 12:34
Cornell Hatcher Jr. 18 Yd Run (Cameron Smith Kick)
+9.9
FG · Q3 5:31
Caleb Ojeda 31 Yd Field Goal
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com