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CAL

California 34 at Oregon State 15

ORST
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:14 · Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the ORST 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−29.0Garbage-time factor−11.9Score differential−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5Pregame prior+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:23: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 19 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — CAL win probability +1.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:56: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 32 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — CAL win probability +3.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 9:29: Caleb Ojeda 53 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +1.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:02: Brandon High Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — CAL win probability +7.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:16: Maalik Murphy run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CAL win probability +2.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:22ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:04ORST 4th & 4 at CAL 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:18CAL 4th & 3 at ORST 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:25CAL 4th & 21 at CAL 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−2.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:29ORST 4th & 11 at CAL 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:52CAL 4th & 15 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:34ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:09CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00CAL 4th & 2 at ORST 30, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:18ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:12CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.5%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:08CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:16ORST 4th & 3 at CAL 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−4.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−18.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:10CAL 4th & 2 at ORST 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−4.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:18ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 16, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:14CAL 4th & 1 at ORST 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−2.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−8.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:20CAL 4th & 5 at ORST 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:23CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:56CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:3147% → 48%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
52.9%
Brandon High Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
53.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for 5 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
53.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for no gain to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+5
53.2%
PENALTY OREGONST substitution infraction 5 yards to the CAL41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.Similar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+35
53.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 35 yds to the ORST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
52.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Brandon High Jr. for 5 yds to the ORST 19Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
52.8%
Brandon High Jr. run for no gain to the ORST 19Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
51.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 19 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0152% → 51%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the ORST 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ORST Maalik MurphySimilar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
51.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
51.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+57
51.4%
AJ Winsor punt for 47 yds California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Sanford) to the CAL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3DOWNS TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:2648% → 53%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+26
51.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Landon Morris for 26 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
51.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 7 yds to the ORST 44Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
50.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the ORST 42Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
50.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
50.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 8 yds to the ORST 32Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+32
47.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 32 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:4049% → 47%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
48.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 31 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
48.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-3
48.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 45Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+7
47.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 7 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
47.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:4655% → 57%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
45.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 7 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+10
44.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 10 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
44.2%
Brandon High Jr. run for 3 yds to the ORST 42Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
43.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 4 yds to the ORST 38Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
43.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
43.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:1545% → 44%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
45.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 36Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-2
43.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 34Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+10
43.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 10 yds to the ORST 44Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+25
43.7%
AJ Winsor punt for 51 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 25 yds to the CAL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3552% → 51%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
48.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 13 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
47.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
47.1%
PENALTY CAL holding (Miller, Braden) 10 yards to the CAL33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 20
OWN 33
-5
48.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by CAL Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 25
OWN 28
+4
48.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 4 yds to the CAL 32 California Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Mason Mini) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 21
OWN 32
+3
48.6%
Brook Honore Jr. punt for 39 yds , Trent Walker returns for 3 yds to the ORST 35 Oregon State Penalty, Illegal Block (Eddie Freauff) to the ORST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:5148% → 47%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
48.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 14 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
48.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 30 yds to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
50.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-4
50.8%
David Wells Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
48.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+53
46.8%
Caleb Ojeda 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:2154% → 56%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
46.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 8 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+6
45.3%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
43.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+20
44.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jeffrey Johnson for 20 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
42.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the ORST 45Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
41.9%
California Penalty, False Start (Braden Miller) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 15
50
0
42.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 15
50
0
43.4%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mark HamperSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 15
50
0
44.4%
Brook Honore Jr. punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1144% → 42%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
44.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the ORST 17Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+4
44.4%
Gabarri Johnson run for 4 yds to the ORST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
44.1%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 4 yds to the ORST 25Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+1
44.5%
Gabarri Johnson run for 1 yd to the ORST 26Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
43.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Anthony HankersonSimilar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
42.4%
AJ Winsor punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1758% → 60%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
41.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 36Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
40.7%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 4 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
38.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
40.3%
Brook Honore Jr. punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:1841% → 44%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
41.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 9 yds to the ORST 36Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-1
43.3%
Salahadin Allah run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 35Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
41.6%
Salahadin Allah run for 3 yds to the ORST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
41.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 10 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
43.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
44.3%
California Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
44.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 5 yds Bryce Caufield fumbled, forced by Brent Austin, recovered by CAL Ryan McCullochSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:3162% → 64%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
37.8%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 25 yds to the ORST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kyion GrayesSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
35.6%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 9 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
35.1%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+49
35.9%
Abram Murray 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3041% → 38%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
40.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 24Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
40.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-6
39.1%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Jayden Wayne for a loss of 6 yards to the ORST 18Similar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 15
OWN 18
+24
38.0%
AJ Winsor punt for 46 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 24 yds to the ORST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:3665% → 66%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
35.4%
Brandon High Jr. run for 2 yds to the ORST 38Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+35
35.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mark Hamper for 35 yds to the ORST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
34.8%
Devin Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 4Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Landon Morris for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 7:0639% → 43%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
38.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
38.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 6 yds to the ORST 22Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+11
37.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 11 yds to the ORST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
38.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 7 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
41.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
40.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 4 yds to the ORST 49Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
41.3%
Murphy, Maalik pass incomplete to Durant, Malachi, PENALTY CAL holding off-setting, PENALTY OREGONST Illegal Shift off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+19
41.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Zachary Card for 19 yds to the CAL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+29
43.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 29 yds to the CAL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
43.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 6Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
43.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the CAL 3Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
42.0%
California Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Hezekiah Masses) to the CAL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:5869% → 71%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
31.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-2
29.2%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 36Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
30.5%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 5 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
30.2%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
28.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by CAL Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleSimilar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+5
28.9%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 5 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
28.0%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kyion GrayesSimilar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
29.5%
Brook Honore Jr. punt for 53 yds, downed at the ORST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:5431% → 30%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
31.4%
Maalik Murphy run for 2 yds to the ORST 3Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
31.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the ORST 7Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+6
29.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 6 yds to the ORST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
30.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 6 yds to the ORST 19Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+4
30.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 4 yds to the ORST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-41
30.1%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Hezekiah Masses return for 41 yds to the ORST 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.2%
Brandon High Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:3230% → 30%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
29.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 16 yds to the ORST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
31.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the ORST 39Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+11
31.2%
Maalik Murphy run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
50
+9
34.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 9 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
32.9%
Maalik Murphy run for 5 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+28
33.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Salahadin Allah for 20 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Roughing Passer (TJ Bush Jr.) to the CAL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
35.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Trent WalkerSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
34.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Bryce CaufieldSimilar
Q4 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
32.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Trent Walker for 5 yds to the CAL 3Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.6%
Maalik Murphy run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:5480% → 84%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
20.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for 22 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
17.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for 1 yd to the CAL 48Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
16.0%
Brandon High Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 7
50
0
15.2%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jordan KingSimilar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 7
50
+5
17.5%
Oregon State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Harlem Howard) to the ORST 45Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
15.9%
Michael Kern punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trent Walker at the ORST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4622% → 18%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
21.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 4 yds to the ORST 16Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
20.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to David Wells Jr.Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
19.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Taz ReddicksSimilar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+24
18.4%
AJ Winsor punt for 42 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 24 yds to the ORST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23FG
14 plays · 29 yds · 4:5289% → 95%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
11.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
10.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the ORST 27Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
10.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the ORST 25Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+4
12.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the ORST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
9.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the ORST 18Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
7.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the ORST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
5.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the ORST 9Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
4.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the ORST 8Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
4.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the ORST 5Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
4.8%
Chase Meyer 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
9.2%
Cornell Hatcher Jr. run for 10 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-9.2
TD · Q4 12:02
Brandon High Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q1 7:56
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 32 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
-3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com