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Northwestern 13 at Illinois 20

ILL
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:34 · (01:43) #40 K.Crimmins punt 44 yards to the NW00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+0.6Home team on offense+25.0Garbage-time factor+15.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.4Score differential+3.5Time remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:50: (05:55) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at ILL00, for 13 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:50, 1ST DOWN #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine) — NU win probability +7.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:30: (00:34) #3 K.Feagin rush right for 1 yard gain to the NW00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:30 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +10.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:23: (07:27) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 07:23 — ILL win probability +6.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:46: (07:48) #82 J.Olsen field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine), clock 07:46 — NU win probability +13.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:12: (05:18) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 3 yards loss to the NW20 (#1 C.Bastone) — ILL win probability +16.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 9:34ILL 4th & 5 at NU 17, tied
    Close callWent for it · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35NU 4th & 1 at ILL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−0.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:28NU 4th & 3 at ILL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:16NU 4th & 7 at ILL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:07ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 47, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:25NU 4th & 7 at NU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:23ILL 4th & 12 at NU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:18NU 4th & 17 at NU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:49ILL 4th & 9 at NU 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:17NU 4th & 1 at ILL 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−2.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−16.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:46NU 4th & 8 at ILL 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−13.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:12ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:00ILL 4th & 1 at NU 8, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%−6.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−20.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:34ILL 4th & 6 at NU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:36NU 4th & 10 at ILL 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−2.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 5:50NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:30ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 65 yds · 5:1672% → 72%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
72.3%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ILL28 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #9 B.Turner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
72.2%
(14:20) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #85 T.Arkin caught at ILL30, for 5 yards to the ILL33 (#13 J.Fussell), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
72.2%
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL37 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+6
72.1%
(13:08) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 6 yards gain to the ILL43 (#4 A.Saka; #37 M.Uihlein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
72.1%
(12:27) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at NW25, for 35 yards to the NW22 (#13 J.Fussell; #33 B.Brus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
72.2%
(11:42) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NW21 (#18 G.Wallace)Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+4
72.1%
(11:00) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NW17 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #9 B.Turner)Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
71.9%
(10:20) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 0 yards to the NW17 (#33 B.Brus; #47 M.Kilbane)Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 5
OPP 17
0
71.7%
(09:36) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Dixon thrown to NW07 broken up by #13 J.Fussell, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 9:0829% → 33%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
71.3%
(09:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush right for 6 yards gain to the NW23 (#6 J.Clarke; #10 M.Scott)Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+5
70.9%
(08:54) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NW28 (#28 D.Rosiek), 1ST DOWN. #6 J.Himon II injured on the playSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
70.9%
(08:24) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short middle to #86 L.Albright caught at NW33, for 17 yards to the NW45 (#10 M.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
70.2%
(07:43) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush right for 0 yards to the NW45 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
70.2%
(07:06) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush right for 9 yards gain to the ILL46 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.; #6 J.Clarke)Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
69.7%
(06:24) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL46 (#99 C.Neal)Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+11
70.0%
(05:41) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 11 yards gain to the ILL35 (#10 M.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
69.0%
(05:00) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #41 R.Preckel caught at ILL35, for 4 yards to the ILL31 (#28 D.Rosiek)Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-1
68.7%
(04:19) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #17 G.Wilde caught at ILL35, for 1 yard loss to the ILL32 (#16 T.Heckel; #28 D.Rosiek)Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+4
69.0%
(03:32) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL28 (#45 M.Hood; #5 T.Cox Jr.)Similar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+5
68.9%
(02:40) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #84 H.Welcing caught at ILL24, for 5 yards to the ILL23 (#41 J.Kreutz; #45 M.Hood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
67.5%
(01:57) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to ILL00 broken up by #6 J.ClarkeSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
67.6%
(01:51) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 5 yards gain to the ILL18 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-2
67.6%
(01:08) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush right for 2 yards loss to the ILL20 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
67.5%
(00:16) #82 J.Olsen field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine), clock 00:16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:4267% → 72%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
67.4%
(00:09) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL22 (#15 B.Flakes)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+9
67.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ILL31 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
67.3%
(14:22) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at ILL36, for 9 yards to the ILL40 (#18 G.Wallace)Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+21
68.3%
(13:43) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete deep right to #13 H.Clement caught at NW39, for 21 yards to the NW39 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
68.5%
(13:00) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NW34 (#18 G.Wallace; #95 N.Story)Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+28
72.4%
(12:17) #80 H.Beatty pass complete short left to #85 T.Arkin caught at NW15, for 28 yards to the NW06 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
72.4%
(11:27) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 6 yards gain to the NW00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3129% → 40%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.6%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush right for 9 yards gain to the NW34 (#5 T.Cox Jr.; #90 J.Thompson Jr.) PENALTY ILL Holding (#99 C.Neal) 10 yards from NW34 to NW44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
69.2%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #17 G.Wilde caught at ILL44, for 12 yards to the ILL44, out of bounds at ILL44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
68.7%
(10:15) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL39 (#6 J.Clarke; #36 T.Durojaiye)Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
68.1%
(09:33) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to ILL30 PENALTY ILL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ILL39 to ILL34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
67.6%
(09:31) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at ILL21, for 13 yards to the ILL21 (#6 J.Clarke), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
67.3%
(08:53) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #17 G.Wilde caught at ILL23, for 4 yards to the ILL17 (#6 J.Clarke; #7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+1
67.5%
(08:12) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL16 (#7 M.Bailey; #17 G.Jacas)Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+5
68.2%
(07:33) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at ILL11, for 5 yards to the ILL11 (#16 T.Heckel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
67.2%
(06:49) Shotgun #2 R.Boe pass incomplete short left to #17 G.Wilde thrown to ILL00 QB hurried by #3 A.Bryant PENALTY NW Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#72 C.Tiernan) 5 yards from ILL11 to ILL16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
67.4%
(06:45) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #80 H.Eligon II thrown to ILL03Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+3
67.9%
(06:38) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL13 (#44 A.McCullom; #3 A.Bryant)Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+13
60.5%
(05:55) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at ILL00, for 13 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:50, 1ST DOWN #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:3063% → 62%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
62.7%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete deep middle to #17 C.Dixon thrown to NW30Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
62.3%
(05:36) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL31 (#47 M.Kilbane; #44 C.Campbell)Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+9
61.7%
(04:55) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL40, for 9 yards to the ILL40 (#7 O.Adeyi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
64.2%
(04:19) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL42 (#1 C.Bastone; #33 B.Brus)Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
64.0%
(03:37) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 6 yards gain to the ILL48 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-1
63.2%
(02:54) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 1 yard loss to the ILL47 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
61.7%
(02:11) #40 K.Crimmins punt 53 yards to the NW00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:2141% → 40%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
59.4%
(02:06) #41 R.Preckel rush right for 5 yards gain to the NW25 (#28 D.Rosiek). #28 D.Rosiek injured on the playSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
59.6%
(01:59) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 6 yards gain to the NW31 (#4 D.Brown; #41 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.7%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #41 R.Preckel thrown to NW26Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
60.0%
(01:44) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass intercepted by #5 T.Cox Jr. at NW48 broken up by #41 J.Kreutz, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:5665% → 74%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
64.7%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at NW43, for 5 yards to the NW43 (#9 B.Turner)Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+15
64.8%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #5 C.Valentine thrown to NW45 PENALTY NW Roughing The Passer (#15 B.Flakes) 15 yards from NW43 to NW28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
66.2%
(01:14) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 17 yards gain to the NW11 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
66.1%
(00:40) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 10 yards gain to the NW01 (#44 C.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.3%
(00:34) #3 K.Feagin rush right for 1 yard gain to the NW00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:30 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.7%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 7 yards gain to the NW32 (#41 J.Kreutz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2830% → 28%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 5 yards gain to the NW30 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.)Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
69.5%
(14:22) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 2 yards loss to the NW28 (#45 M.Hood; #17 G.Jacas)Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
71.0%
(13:40) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #80 H.Eligon II thrown to NW35 broken up by #6 J.Clarke QB hurried by #17 G.JacasSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
71.8%
(13:34) #11 L.Akers punt 42 yards to the ILL30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 5:5471% → 79%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
70.9%
(13:24) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 20 yards gain to the ILL50 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
50
+6
72.8%
(12:43) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 6 yards gain to the NW44 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
72.9%
(12:04) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NW39 (#15 B.Flakes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
72.9%
(11:25) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #21 A.Laughery caught at NW38, for 4 yards to the NW35 (#33 B.Brus), out of bounds PENALTY ILL Holding (#58 M.Priestly) 10 yards from NW39 to NW49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+4
74.0%
(10:56) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NW45 (#47 M.Kilbane)Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+18
74.0%
(10:14) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at NW27, for 18 yards to the NW27 (#7 O.Adeyi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-25
76.2%
(09:28) #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 25 yards loss to the ILL48 fumbled by #9 L.Altmyer at NW44 forced by #33 B.Brus, out of bounds at ILL48Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 35
OWN 48
+7
73.4%
(08:51) #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at NW46, for 7 yards to the NW45 (#9 B.Turner)Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 28
OPP 45
+16
73.0%
(08:16) #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #3 K.Feagin caught at NW38, for 16 yards to the NW29 (#9 B.Turner; #6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+47
79.2%
(07:27) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 07:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5824% → 21%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
76.4%
(07:22) No Huddle #8 P.Stone sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NW18 (#17 G.Jacas)Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
76.9%
(06:41) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #80 H.Eligon II thrown to NW31 broken up by #7 M.BaileySimilar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
77.9%
(06:34) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #41 R.Preckel thrown to NW30 broken up by #39 K.Odeluga QB hurried by #17 G.JacasSimilar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+3
78.6%
(06:20) #11 L.Akers punt 42 yards to the ILL40 #80 H.Beatty return 3 yards to the ILL43 (#49 L.Reardon)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:2382% → 80%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
81.9%
(06:17) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NW49 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #9 B.Turner)Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
82.5%
(05:34) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NW43 (#37 M.Uihlein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
82.5%
(04:53) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush right for 5 yards gain to the NW38 (#13 J.Fussell), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
82.6%
(04:14) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NW37 (#94 M.Jackson)Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
82.0%
(03:24) PENALTY ILL Delay Of Game 5 yards from NW37 to NW42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
81.7%
(03:02) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Dixon thrown to NW35 QB hurried by #9 B.TurnerSimilar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
79.8%
(02:57) #40 K.Crimmins punt 42 yards to the NW00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13FUMBLE
14 plays · 70 yds · 7:2423% → 20%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
77.4%
(02:46) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 5 yards gain to the NW25 (#4 D.Brown; #26 I.Kante)Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
76.7%
(02:11) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at NW33, for 8 yards to the NW33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
78.1%
(01:32) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 4 yards gain to the NW37 (#92 G.Hunt; #45 M.Hood)Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+14
77.3%
(00:51) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep left to #17 G.Wilde thrown to ILL35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (#5 T.Cox Jr.) 14 yards from NW37 to ILL49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
75.6%
(00:44) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 3 yards gain to the ILL46 (#3 A.Bryant; #26 I.Kante)Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
75.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at ILL38, for 8 yards to the ILL38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
75.8%
(14:19) Shotgun #8 P.Stone sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ILL45 (#17 G.Jacas). The previous play is under automatic review - "Sack". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (14:19) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass intercepted by #16 T.Heckel at ILL36 broken up by #17 G.Jacas QB hurried by #17 G.Jacas, End Of Play)Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+8
79.9%
(13:47) Shotgun #8 P.Stone rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ILL37 fumbled by #8 P.Stone at ILL39 forced by #45 M.Hood recovered by NW #86 L.Albright at ILL37, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+18
78.9%
(12:53) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at ILL20, for 18 yards to the ILL19 (#10 M.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
76.6%
(12:11) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL17 (#43 J.Barna; #99 C.Neal)Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+4
76.7%
(11:32) Shotgun #2 R.Boe rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL13 (#99 C.Neal)Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+3
78.7%
(10:45) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #80 H.Eligon II caught at ILL10, for 3 yards to the ILL10 (#5 T.Cox Jr.)Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
80.2%
(10:17) Shotgun #8 P.Stone rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL10 fumbled by #8 P.Stone at ILL10 recovered by ILL #9 L.Lowery Jr. at ILL10, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:3687% → 86%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
86.5%
(10:15) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 1 yard gain to the ILL11 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
86.5%
(09:35) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #80 H.Beatty thrown to ILL18 broken up by #9 B.TurnerSimilar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+4
85.8%
(09:32) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ILL05 (#33 B.Brus), fumble by #9 L.Altmyer recovered by NW #4 A.Saka at ILL05 #4 A.Saka return 4 yards to the ILL01 (#80 H.Beatty)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15FG
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1823% → 32%
Q4 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
76.6%
(09:09) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 3 yards loss to the ILL04 (#28 D.Rosiek)Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
76.6%
(08:39) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #84 H.Welcing caught at ILL03, for 1 yard to the ILL03 (#5 T.Cox Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
79.2%
(07:52) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short middle to #17 G.Wilde thrown to ILL00 broken up by #10 M.ScottSimilar
Q4 7:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
81.0%
PENALTY NW Delay Of Game 5 yards from ILL03 to ILL08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
68.0%
(07:48) #82 J.Olsen field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine), clock 07:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2277% → 78%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.9%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL28 (#47 M.Kilbane; #33 B.Brus)Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
79.2%
(07:02) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 4 yards gain to the ILL32 (#37 M.Uihlein), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
78.9%
(06:22) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #13 H.Clement thrown to ILL40Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
77.7%
(06:17) #40 K.Crimmins punt 42 yards to the NW26 fair catch by #17 G.Wilde at NW26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1529% → 29%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
70.8%
(06:11) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 5 yards gain to the NW31 (#7 M.Bailey), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+5
71.0%
(05:34) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #84 H.Welcing caught at NW35, for 5 yards to the NW36 (#28 D.Rosiek), 1ST DOWN. ILL is challenging the ruling on the field - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-33
71.1%
(05:29) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass intercepted by #10 M.Scott at ILL50 #10 M.Scott return 33 yards to the NW17 (#41 R.Preckel)Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
71.1%
(04:56) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NW37 (#99 C.Neal)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1287% → 93%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
87.0%
(05:18) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 3 yards loss to the NW20 (#1 C.Bastone)Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+11
87.6%
(04:27) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #21 A.Laughery caught at NW17, for 11 yards to the NW09 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
87.4%
(03:45) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NW08 (#9 B.Turner; #37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+27
93.3%
(03:00) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 03:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19INT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:5214% → 11%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
86.5%
(02:59) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short middle to #84 H.Welcing caught at NW39, for 4 yards to the NW39 (#45 M.Hood)Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
85.3%
(02:36) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep right to #80 H.Eligon II thrown to ILL36 broken up by #6 J.ClarkeSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
86.3%
(02:30) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at NW45, for 8 yards to the NW47 (#28 D.Rosiek; #16 T.Heckel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
85.8%
(02:07) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #41 R.Preckel thrown to NW50 PENALTY NW Holding (#75 M.Lewis) 10 yards from NW47 to NW37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 20
OWN 37
0
88.7%
(02:02) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass intercepted by #10 M.Scott at NW48, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:1796% → 95%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
96.0%
(01:57) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NW45 (#15 B.Flakes; #6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-2
96.0%
(01:51) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 2 yards loss to the NW47 (#1 C.Bastone; #47 M.Kilbane)Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+3
96.0%
(01:46) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NW44 (#33 B.Brus; #37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
95.3%
(01:43) #40 K.Crimmins punt 44 yards to the NW00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:5410% → 10%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.2%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #87 C.Grove thrown to NW25Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
90.5%
(01:29) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to NW35 broken up by #10 M.ScottSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+20
91.1%
(01:23) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at NW37, for 20 yards to the NW40 (#5 T.Cox Jr.; #0 M.Resetich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
88.8%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at ILL44, for 16 yards to the ILL44 (#5 T.Cox Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
87.3%
(01:02) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to ILL33Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
88.3%
(00:52) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to ILL35 broken up by #26 I.KanteSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
89.0%
(00:47) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short middle to #87 C.Grove thrown to ILL30Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
89.9%
(00:42) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep left to #84 H.Welcing thrown to ILL20, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
97.0%
(00:36) Kneel down by #9 L.Altmyer at ILL42 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:12
(05:18) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 3 yards loss to the NW20 (#1 C.Bastone)
+16
FG · Q4 7:46
(07:48) #82 J.Olsen field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine), clock 07:46
-13
TD · Q2 0:30
(00:34) #3 K.Feagin rush right for 1 yard gain to the NW00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:30 #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com