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ILL

Illinois 10 at Wisconsin 27

WIS
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:49 · (02:57) #91 S.West punt 56 yards to the ILL00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Pregame prior−14.2Home team on offense+1.5Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:45: (05:49) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 12 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:45, 1ST DOWN #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +10.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:14: (00:19) #90 N.Vakos field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy), clock 00:14 — WIS win probability +2.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:40: (09:44) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 84 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:40, 1ST DOWN #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy) — WIS win probability +15.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:23: (01:26) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 01:23 — ILL win probability +5.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. SACK · Q4 9:12: (09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ILL18 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.) — WIS win probability +8.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:51ILL 4th & 21 at WIS 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:49ILL 4th & 6 at WIS 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−4.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:53WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 29, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:49WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:50ILL 4th & 24 at ILL 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−4.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:14WIS 4th & 5 at ILL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:35WIS 4th & 16 at WIS 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−3.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:50ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:12ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:53WIS 4th & 16 at WIS 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−4.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:23ILL 4th & 6 at WIS 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−11.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:20WIS 4th & 17 at WIS 46, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 4.3 ptsWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%−4.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:12ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 28, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:47ILL 4th & 5 at WIS 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:23WIS 4th & 3 at ILL 15, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:30ILL 4th & 25 at ILL 44, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 5:45ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:40WIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:5874% → 71%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL27, for 2 yards to the ILL27 (#2 R.Hallman)Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
26.3%
PENALTY WIS Offside (#31 J.Suggs) 5 yards from ILL27 to ILL32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
26.3%
(14:15) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL33 (#17 D.Peterson)Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
26.7%
(13:37) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL40, for 8 yards to the ILL41 (#5 D.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
26.9%
(13:09) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #88 D.Stoffel caught at ILL49, for 24 yards to the WIS35 (#5 D.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
26.9%
(12:31) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 1 yard gain to the WIS34 (#44 C.Catalano; #59 A.Witt)Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
27.1%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #85 T.Arkin thrown to WIS24. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass intercepted by #29 M.Jung at WIS24, End Of Play)Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 9
OPP 34
-12
28.2%
(11:48) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer sacked for loss of 12 yards to the WIS46 (#17 D.Peterson), fumble by #9 L.Altmyer recovered by ILL #75 B.Henderson at WIS46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 21
OPP 46
0
29.3%
(10:54) #40 K.Crimmins punt 46 yards to the WIS00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 9:0230% → 39%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
29.7%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kekahuna rush right for 6 yards gain to the WIS26 fumbled by #2 T.Kekahuna at WIS26 forced by #7 M.Bailey recovered by WIS #11 T.Ashcraft at WIS26, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-7
29.8%
(10:19) Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 7 yards to the WIS19 (#36 T.Durojaiye)Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+11
30.4%
(09:43) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short left to #13 E.Hilton Jr. caught at WIS24, for 11 yards to the WIS30 (#45 M.Hood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
30.9%
(09:02) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush left for 8 yards gain to the WIS38 (#10 M.Scott)Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-2
32.2%
(08:24) Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 2 yards to the WIS36 (#17 G.Jacas)Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
32.1%
(07:46) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS40 (#48 C.Smith; #5 T.Cox Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
33.0%
(07:09) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS43 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
33.7%
(06:41) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short left to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at WIS47, for 6 yards to the WIS49 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
33.9%
(06:03) #34 J.Acker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL49 (#39 K.Odeluga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
35.0%
(05:25) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short left to #86 L.Mason caught at ILL37, for 17 yards to the ILL32 (#10 M.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
35.7%
(04:46) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL28 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+6
36.3%
(04:13) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short left to #86 L.Mason caught at ILL23, for 6 yards to the ILL22 (#5 T.Cox Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
36.9%
(03:29) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL20 (#39 K.Odeluga)Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+12
37.7%
(02:49) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 12 yards gain to the ILL08 (#0 M.Resetich), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
38.0%
(02:09) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL06 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.; #39 K.Odeluga)Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.7%
(01:26) Shotgun #8 V.Anthony II rush right for 6 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:21 #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:2663% → 59%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
37.1%
(01:21) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 13 yards gain to the ILL38 (#8 M.Posa), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
37.0%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete deep middle to #13 H.Clement thrown to WIS40Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
37.1%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL38 (#92 C.Walker)Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
38.5%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #13 H.Clement caught at WIS47, for 15 yards to the WIS47 (#2 R.Hallman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
36.6%
(14:42) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at WIS41, for 10 yards to the WIS37 (#5 D.Hill), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
37.1%
(14:03) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 14 yards gain to the WIS23 (#59 A.Witt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
36.5%
(13:24) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush right for 3 yards gain to the WIS20 (#9 A.Brown)Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
37.0%
(12:41) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at WIS26, for 3 yards to the WIS17 (#1 G.Latimer)Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
38.4%
(12:03) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #14 C.Rusk caught at WIS13, for 0 yards to the WIS17 PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (#14 C.Rusk) 15 yards from WIS17 to WIS32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+13
40.5%
(11:35) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #14 C.Rusk caught at WIS30, for 13 yards to the WIS19 (#1 G.Latimer)Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
40.7%
(10:53) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 37 yards NO GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 10:49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4842% → 43%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
42.2%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS22 (#36 T.Durojaiye)Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
42.3%
(10:27) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS26, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
42.7%
(09:48) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS29 (#28 D.Rosiek)Similar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+28
42.7%
(09:02) #91 S.West punt 54 yards to the ILL17 #80 H.Beatty return 28 yards to the ILL45 (#46 N.Levy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:5758% → 68%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
42.2%
(08:46) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL46 (#17 D.Peterson)Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+24
43.7%
(08:14) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete deep right to #17 C.Dixon caught at WIS30, for 24 yards to the WIS30, out of bounds at WIS30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
41.6%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Valentine thrown to WIS30 broken up by #17 D.PetersonSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
41.7%
(07:40) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 9 yards gain to the WIS21 (#29 M.Jung; #99 P.Petersen)Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
43.1%
(06:57) #23 J.Anderson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WIS20 (#68 B.Barten), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
42.3%
(06:17) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #14 C.Rusk caught at WIS19, for 8 yards to the WIS12 (#9 A.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
31.8%
(05:49) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 12 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:45, 1ST DOWN #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:5138% → 40%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
38.4%
(05:44) Shotgun #34 J.Acker rush right for 10 yards gain to the WIS35 (#9 L.Lowery Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
39.0%
(05:08) Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 1 yard to the WIS34 (#10 M.Scott)Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
39.2%
(04:27) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short right to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at WIS31, for 8 yards to the WIS42 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
40.8%
(03:42) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS44 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
40.2%
(02:57) #91 S.West punt 56 yards to the ILL00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · -3 yds · 1:5564% → 60%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
36.4%
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 2 yards gain to the ILL22 (#22 M.Reiger; #8 M.Posa)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
37.0%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at ILL30, for 9 yards to the ILL31 (#5 D.Hill), 1ST DOWN. #80 H.Beatty injured on the playSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
36.1%
(02:00) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL36 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
35.2%
(01:40) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #21 A.Laughery thrown to ILL36 broken up by #68 B.BartenSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+10
36.5%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #13 H.Clement caught at WIS47, for 19 yards to the WIS45 (#29 M.Jung) PENALTY ILL Holding (#74 J.Davis) 10 yards from ILL36 to ILL26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 15
OWN 26
-9
38.9%
(01:05) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ILL17 (#22 M.Reiger)Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 24
OWN 17
0
39.8%
(01:00) #40 K.Crimmins punt 30 yards to the ILL47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:3244% → 46%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
44.1%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short left to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at ILL40, for 12 yards to the ILL35, out of bounds at ILL35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
45.3%
(00:46) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short right to #13 E.Hilton Jr. caught at ILL33, for 5 yards to the ILL30 (#5 T.Cox Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
45.4%
(00:27) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short right to #13 E.Hilton Jr. thrown to ILL25 QB hurried by #17 G.JacasSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
43.9%
(00:23) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short middle to #13 E.Hilton Jr. thrown to ILL25Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
46.4%
(00:19) #90 N.Vakos field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy), clock 00:14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.8%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL25 (#31 J.Suggs)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:1546% → 45%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
45.7%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush right for 2 yards gain to the WIS35 (#3 A.Bryant)Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
47.4%
(14:15) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS37 (#17 G.Jacas; #10 M.Scott)Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-10
47.8%
(13:39) Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 10 yards to the WIS27 (#17 G.Jacas), fumble by #5 C.Smith recovered by WIS #5 C.Smith at WIS27, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
45.4%
(12:46) #91 S.West punt 48 yards to the ILL25 fair catch by #80 H.Beatty at ILL25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4053% → 52%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.9%
(12:35) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #13 H.Clement thrown to ILL35 QB hurried by #15 S.CheeksSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.2%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL26 (#31 J.Suggs; #17 D.Peterson)Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
48.7%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ILL37 (#9 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.6%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #13 H.Clement thrown to ILL40 broken up by #8 M.PosaSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
47.3%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+6
48.1%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #3 K.Feagin caught at ILL41, for 6 yards to the ILL44 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
48.3%
(09:54) #40 K.Crimmins punt 40 yards to the WIS16 fair catch by #3 T.Henry at WIS16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD
2 plays · 84 yds · 0:0450% → 66%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
50.4%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete short right to #34 J.Acker thrown to WIS19 QB hurried by #90 J.Thompson Jr.Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+84
65.6%
(09:44) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 84 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:40, 1ST DOWN #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1934% → 31%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
65.7%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ILL18 (#17 D.Peterson)Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+10
67.0%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #5 C.Valentine caught at ILL15, for 10 yards to the ILL28 (#29 M.Jung), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
68.0%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Bowick thrown to ILL45 QB hurried by #17 D.PetersonSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
69.1%
(08:21) #40 K.Crimmins punt 42 yards to the WIS30 #3 T.Henry return 1 yard to the WIS31 (#20 T.Strain)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:1668% → 69%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
68.1%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS35 (#17 G.Jacas)Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
69.1%
(07:38) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS37 (#17 G.Jacas)Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
70.2%
(07:11) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 5 yards gain (5) to the WIS42 (#10 M.Scott) PENALTY WIS Holding declined WIS Face Mask (#11 T.Ashcraft) 15 yards from WIS42 to WIS27Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-2
69.4%
(06:10) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards loss to the WIS25 (#26 I.Kante; #17 G.Jacas)Similar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
68.6%
(05:53) #91 S.West punt 48 yards to the ILL27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:2531% → 34%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
69.5%
(05:52) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush right for 2 yards gain to the ILL29 (#5 D.Hill)Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+11
70.1%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #0 J.Bowick caught at ILL39, for 11 yards to the ILL40, out of bounds at ILL40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
69.1%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL43 (#95 B.Lane Jr.)Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+36
70.0%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete deep right to #17 C.Dixon caught at WIS21, for 36 yards to the WIS21 (#2 R.Hallman), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
66.8%
(04:14) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 8 yards gain to the WIS13, out of bounds at WIS13Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
67.4%
(03:33) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS09 (#68 B.Barten; #22 M.Reiger), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
68.1%
(02:50) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at WIS11, for 3 yards to the WIS06 (#92 C.Walker)Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
68.8%
(02:09) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 0 yards to the WIS06 (#5 D.Hill), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
71.7%
(01:28) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Bowick thrown to WIS00Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
66.0%
(01:26) #24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 01:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 3:5775% → 78%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.8%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 D.Crowdus rush left for 12 yards gain to the WIS37 (#5 T.Cox Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
76.5%
(00:48) #5 C.Smith pass complete short right to #34 J.Acker caught at WIS42, for 6 yards to the WIS43, out of bounds at WIS43Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
78.3%
(00:21) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS45 (#41 J.Kreutz; #7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
78.4%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short right to #6 D.Dupree caught at WIS47, for 8 yards to the ILL47 (#7 M.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.4%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete deep right to #86 L.Mason thrown to ILL20 broken up by #10 M.Scott QB hurried by #16 T.HeckelSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
80.2%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL43 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-1
80.5%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short right to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at ILL45, for 1 yard loss to the ILL44 (#16 T.Heckel)Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+10
79.3%
(13:00) punt 30 yards to the ILL14Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+10
79.3%
(13:00) #91 S.West punt 43 yards to the ILL01, out of bounds at ILL01 PENALTY WIS Illegal Bat (#46 N.Levy) 10 yards from ILL44 to WIS46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 17
OWN 46
-3
78.2%
#91 S.West punt 37 yards to the ILL17 #80 H.Beatty return for loss of 3 yards to the ILL17 fumbled by #80 H.Beatty at ILL17 recovered by ILL #80 H.Beatty at ILL14, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:3925% → 21%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
75.0%
K. Crimmins punt for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 13
OWN 14
+6
75.9%
(12:05) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ILL20 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+7
76.2%
(11:45) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at ILL27, for 7 yards to the ILL27, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.5%
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #14 C.Rusk thrown to ILL30 QB hurried by #8 M.PosaSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
76.4%
(11:31) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush right for 5 yards gain to the ILL32 (#5 D.Hill; #68 B.Barten)Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-4
76.7%
(10:58) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer sacked for loss of 4 yards to the ILL28 (#17 D.Peterson)Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 9
OWN 28
-14
79.5%
(10:15) Illinois rush middle for 14 yards loss to the ILL14 (#34 C.Jarvis), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5085% → 95%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
85.2%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL10 (#99 C.Neal)Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
85.7%
PENALTY WIS False Start (#71 R.Mahlman) 5 yards from ILL10 to ILL15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-3
94.5%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ILL18 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+14
94.6%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short middle to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at ILL20, for 14 yards to the ILL04 (#16 T.Heckel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.9%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush right for 4 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:16 #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:169% → 8%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
91.4%
(08:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #80 H.Beatty caught at ILL34, for 10 yards to the ILL35, out of bounds at ILL35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
90.8%
(07:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #0 J.Bowick caught at ILL48, for 13 yards to the ILL48 (#5 D.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
90.5%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at WIS47, for 5 yards to the WIS47 (#19 T.Heiberger)Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
91.0%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #80 H.Beatty thrown to WIS45Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
91.4%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short middle to #80 H.Beatty thrown to WIS36Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 5
OPP 47
-7
91.8%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ILL46 (#0 C.Alliegro), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:1996% → 98%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
95.7%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL43 (#36 T.Durojaiye; #7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-4
96.2%
(06:06) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards loss to the ILL47 fumbled by #6 D.Dupree at ILL47 forced by #36 T.Durojaiye recovered by WIS #6 D.Dupree at ILL47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+25
96.2%
(05:25) Shotgun #2 T.Kekahuna rush left for 25 yards gain to the ILL22 (#10 M.Scott), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
96.7%
(04:48) Shotgun #3 T.Henry rush left for 2 yards gain to the ILL20 (#10 M.Scott)Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
97.3%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL16 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+1
97.4%
(04:33) No Huddle #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL15 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
98.2%
(04:27) #90 N.Vakos field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy), clock 04:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.2%
PENALTY WIS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#7 T.Fearbry) 15 yards from ILL25 to ILL40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
99.2%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #3 K.Feagin caught at ILL35, for 19 yards to the WIS41 fumbled by #3 K.Feagin at WIS41 forced by #1 G.Latimer recovered by ILL #17 C.Dixon at WIS41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.1%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #2 A.Hollins thrown to WIS37 broken up by #17 D.PetersonSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
99.1%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #80 H.Beatty thrown to WIS31 QB hurried by #15 S.CheeksSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+15
99.1%
PENALTY ILL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#58 M.Priestly) 15 yards from WIS41 to ILL44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 25
OWN 44
0
99.3%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #14 C.Rusk thrown to ILL45 QB hurried by #17 D.Peterson and #22 M.ReigerSimilar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 25
OWN 44
+12
99.3%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #14 C.Rusk caught at ILL48, for 12 yards to the WIS44 (#1 G.Latimer) PENALTY ILL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct declined, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:0499% → 99%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
98.6%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS47 (#41 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
98.7%
(02:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ILL47 (#39 K.Odeluga)Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
98.9%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL44 (#26 I.Kante), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
99.0%
(01:29) Kneel down by #5 C.Smith at ILL46 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-1
99.0%
(00:56) Kneel down by #5 C.Smith at ILL47 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-1
99.0%
(00:22) Kneel down by #5 C.Smith at ILL48 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:40
(09:44) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 84 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:40, 1ST DOWN #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)
+15.2
TD · Q2 5:45
(05:49) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 12 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:45, 1ST DOWN #24 D.Olano kick attempt good (H: #40 K.Crimmins, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)
-10.5
SACK · Q4 9:12
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ILL18 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com