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MSU

Michigan State 17 at Iowa 20

IOWA
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:58: (09:04) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to #13 C.McCray caught at IOWA02, for 45 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:58, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) PENALTY #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) PENALTY IOWA Roughing Holder (#49 E.Hurkett) #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) PENALTY IOWA Roughing Holder (#49 E.Hurkett) 15 yards from IOWA00 to MSU50 — MSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:13: (01:13) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at IOWA00, for 5 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:13 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) — MSU win probability +17.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:27: (11:27) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 11:27 — IOWA win probability +8.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:29: (01:29) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #5 J.Gill caught at MSU00, for 13 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:29, 1ST DOWN #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell) — IOWA win probability +40.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:02: (00:02) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 00:00 — IOWA win probability +45.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 11
  1. Q1 13:26IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:58MSU 4th & 5 at IOWA 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:26MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:38MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:12MSU 4th & 8 at IOWA 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:13IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:54MSU 4th & 9 at IOWA 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:09IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:06MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 49, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:56MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:48IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:27IOWA 4th & 7 at MSU 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−10.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:01MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:20IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−5.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:22MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:45IOWA 4th & 11 at MSU 33, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−3.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:37MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:41MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:38IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:58MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:13MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:29IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−2.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:2887% → 86%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.5%
(14:54) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #28 K.Moulton thrown to IOWA30 QB hurried by #9 J.ThompsonSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.4%
(14:52) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 16 yards gain to the IOWA41 (#14 M.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
86.4%
(14:22) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA43 (#10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
86.2%
(13:46) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Gill thrown to MSU43Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+5
86.2%
PENALTY IOWA Delay Of Game 5 yards from IOWA43 to IOWA38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
86.1%
(13:42) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Gill thrown to IOWA50Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
86.0%
(13:35) #9 R.Dakin punt 29 yards to the MSU33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2114% → 15%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
86.0%
(13:26) #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU36 (#49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+14
85.8%
(12:52) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #81 M.Masunas caught at MSU38, for 14 yards to the MSU50 (#43 K.Sharar), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
50
+3
85.6%
(12:21) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
85.4%
(11:44) #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA45 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
85.2%
(11:10) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #6 N.Marsh thrown to IOWA40 broken up by #91 J.PaceSimilar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
85.3%
(11:08) #96 R.Eckley punt 44 yards to the IOWA01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:2385% → 84%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
85.3%
(10:58) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the IOWA08 (#43 M.Spencer)Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+12
85.1%
(10:23) #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 12 yards gain to the IOWA20 (#2 A.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
85.0%
(09:45) #4 J.Patterson rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA22 (#9 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
84.6%
(09:09) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 4 yards gain to the IOWA26 (#88 R.Buckley)Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-4
84.3%
(08:20) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 4 yards to the IOWA22 (#88 R.Buckley)Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
83.8%
(07:38) #9 R.Dakin punt 44 yards to the MSU34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0316% → 16%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
84.0%
A. Milivojevic pass to N. Marsh for 9 yds, A. Milivojevic fumbled, forced by K. Entringer, recovered by N. Marsh, N. Marsh returnedSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-11
83.5%
(06:43) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 11 yards to the MSU32 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-1
83.9%
(06:23) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #6 N.Marsh caught at MSU31, for 1 yard loss to the MSU31 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 13
OWN 31
+45
83.8%
(05:40) #96 R.Eckley punt 58 yards to the IOWA11 #21 K.Wetjen return 45 yards to the MSU44 (#96 R.Eckley), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4617% → 14%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
83.2%
(04:27) #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU13 (#41 J.Harrell)Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+1
83.0%
(04:13) #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU14 (#4 K.Entringer)Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 2
OWN 14
0
83.1%
(03:55) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU18Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+62
85.7%
(03:53) #96 R.Eckley punt 48 yards to the IOWA38 #21 K.Wetjen return 62 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:38 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:5615% → 16%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
85.2%
(03:27) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #81 M.Masunas caught at MSU26, for 13 yards to the MSU26, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.1%
(02:58) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver thrown to MSU33Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
85.1%
(02:56) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU32 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+8
84.8%
(02:14) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU37, for 8 yards to the MSU40 (#1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
84.4%
(01:40) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #1 O.Kelly caught at MSU37, for 6 yards to the MSU46 (#8 D.Lee), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+13
84.0%
(01:05) #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU48, for 13 yards to the IOWA41 (#12 J.Rexroth), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
83.8%
(00:22) #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA38 (#4 K.Entringer; #43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-1
83.7%
(14:57) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 1 yard loss to the IOWA39 (#49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
83.7%
(14:25) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to IOWA02Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
84.3%
(14:12) #11 A.Milivojevic punt 25 yards to the IOWA14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
85.5%
Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass intercepted by #43 M.Spencer at MSU06, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 4:5385% → 84%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
84.6%
(14:11) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IOWA20 (#43 M.Spencer)Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
84.6%
(13:29) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA25 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
(12:46) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 0 yards to the IOWA25 (#16 G.Kelly)Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.4%
(12:06) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush left for 15 yards gain to the IOWA40 (#43 M.Spencer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
85.0%
(11:23) #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the IOWA39 (#5 J.Hall; #23 D.Snow)Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
84.6%
(10:43) #4 J.Patterson rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA42 (#10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-1
84.3%
(09:56) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 1 yard to the IOWA41 (#99 Q.Dunnigan)Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
83.5%
(09:16) #9 R.Dakin punt 46 yards to the MSU13 fair catch by #1 O.Kelly at MSU13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FG
15 plays · 78 yds · 6:1216% → 22%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
83.9%
(09:12) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU17 (#4 K.Entringer)Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+10
83.8%
(08:32) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MSU27 (#41 J.Harrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
83.8%
(07:58) #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep left to #1 O.Kelly thrown to IOWA30 broken up by #6 Z.Lutmer, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY IOWA Roughing The Passer (#90 B.Allen) 15 yards from MSU27 to MSU42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
83.3%
(07:50) #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush left for 3 yards loss to the MSU39 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+11
83.7%
(07:19) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU42, for 11 yards to the MSU50 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 2
50
+3
82.6%
(06:43) Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#43 K.Sharar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
82.2%
(05:59) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #12 J.Velling caught at IOWA42, for 12 yards to the IOWA35 (#4 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY IOWA Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
81.4%
(05:35) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #7 B.Tullis caught at IOWA32, for 7 yards to the IOWA28 (#4 K.Entringer), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+3
81.0%
(04:52) Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA25 (#95 A.Graves), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
80.8%
(04:14) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep right to #81 M.Masunas caught at IOWA05, for 20 yards to the IOWA05, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.2%
(03:49) #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #6 N.Marsh thrown to IOWA00 QB hurried by #91 J.PaceSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
80.2%
(03:44) #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush left for 4 yards loss to the IOWA09 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
81.3%
(03:02) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #1 O.Kelly thrown to IOWA00 QB hurried by #49 E.HurkettSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
77.8%
(02:54) #29 M.Connington field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills), clock 02:54Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 1:3380% → 80%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
79.8%
(02:47) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IOWA28 (#10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
79.9%
(02:16) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #28 K.Moulton caught at IOWA25, for 5 yards to the IOWA33 (#93 J.Satchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
80.2%
(02:00) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA38 (#91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+9
81.2%
(01:39) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #28 K.Moulton caught at IOWA39, for 9 yards to the IOWA47 (#10 W.Matthews), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
81.6%
(01:31) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #5 J.Gill caught at IOWA48, for 3 yards to the IOWA50 (#14 M.Bell), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 7
50
0
81.7%
(01:29) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #15 R.Vander Zee thrown to MSU43 QB hurried by #99 Q.DunniganSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 7
50
-1
80.8%
(01:21) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #5 J.Gill caught at IOWA49, for 1 yard loss to the IOWA49 (#14 M.Bell)Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
79.5%
(01:12) #9 R.Dakin punt 41 yards to the MSU10 fair catch by #1 O.Kelly at MSU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:5620% → 20%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
80.1%
(01:09) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 N.Marsh caught at MSU14, for 6 yards to the MSU16 (#3 J.Watson)Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+5
80.2%
(01:01) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU20, for 5 yards to the MSU21 (#43 K.Sharar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
79.9%
(00:50) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep right to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU42, for 21 yards to the MSU42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.5%
(00:43) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #1 O.Kelly thrown to IOWA45 QB hurried by #48 M.LlewellynSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
78.9%
(00:40) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #12 J.Velling thrown to IOWA48 broken up by #48 M.Llewellyn QB hurried by #48 M.LlewellynSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+7
79.4%
(00:35) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU48, for 7 yards to the MSU49 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
80.4%
(00:10) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass intercepted by #6 Z.Lutmer at MSU43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12MISSED FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
81.6%
(00:04) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #5 J.Gill caught at MSU35, for 8 yards to the MSU35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+53
81.9%
#18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 53 yards NO GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5221% → 22%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush left for 4 yards gain to the MSU29 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
78.0%
(14:24) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 N.Marsh caught at MSU34, for 4 yards to the MSU33 (#4 K.Entringer; #41 J.Harrell), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
77.8%
(13:44) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU30, for 1 yard to the MSU34 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
78.4%
(13:02) #11 A.Milivojevic punt 49 yards to the IOWA17, out of bounds at IOWA17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3678% → 79%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
78.3%
(12:53) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA22 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+1
77.9%
(12:12) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA23 (#16 G.Kelly)Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+7
76.7%
(11:36) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush left for 7 yards gain to the IOWA30 (#10 W.Matthews), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
79.9%
(10:57) #26 X.Williams rush middle for 0 yards to the IOWA30 (#88 R.Buckley)Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
79.4%
(10:22) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short left to #28 K.Moulton thrown to IOWA30 broken up by #5 J.HallSimilar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+8
78.5%
(10:18) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 8 yards gain to the IOWA38 fumbled by #11 M.Gronowski at IOWA30 forced by #99 Q.Dunnigan recovered by MSU #5 J.Hall at IOWA38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:1225% → 39%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.5%
(10:10) Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush right for 0 yards to the IOWA38 (#1 X.Nwankpa) PENALTY MSU Holding (#51 M.Gulbin) 10 yards from IOWA38 to IOWA48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+3
76.9%
(09:44) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA45 (#4 K.Entringer)Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+45
61.3%
(09:04) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to #13 C.McCray caught at IOWA02, for 45 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:58, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) PENALTY #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) PENALTY IOWA Roughing Holder (#49 E.Hurkett) #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) PENALTY IOWA Roughing Holder (#49 E.Hurkett) 15 yards from IOWA00 to MSU50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0265% → 62%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.9%
(08:58) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA27 (#99 Q.Dunnigan)Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
64.6%
(08:20) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 4 yards gain to the IOWA31 (#99 Q.Dunnigan)Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
63.2%
(07:40) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA33 (#10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
62.1%
(06:57) #9 R.Dakin punt 47 yards to the MSU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:2839% → 68%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.0%
(06:47) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush right for 7 yards gain to the MSU27 (#3 J.Watson)Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
59.2%
(06:06) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU27 (#90 B.Allen)Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
60.0%
(05:34) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU32 (#1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
57.5%
(05:01) #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU36, for 14 yards to the MSU46 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
55.0%
(04:22) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU43, for 2 yards loss to the MSU44 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+11
56.0%
(03:45) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU48, for 11 yards to the IOWA45 (#1 X.Nwankpa), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
53.1%
PENALTY IOWA Delay Of Game 5 yards from IOWA45 to IOWA40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
52.9%
(02:46) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #1 O.Kelly thrown to IOWA27Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+35
52.8%
(02:44) Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush right for 35 yards gain to the IOWA05 (#4 K.Entringer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
50.2%
(01:59) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right thrown to IOWA00 QB hurried by #43 K.ShararSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
50.1%
(01:56) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 0 yards to the IOWA05 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
32.2%
(01:13) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at IOWA00, for 5 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:13 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:3335% → 40%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.6%
(01:09) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA28, for 6 yards to the IOWA31 (#14 M.Bell)Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
35.1%
(00:34) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IOWA37 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
34.1%
(15:00) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at MSU47, for 17 yards to the MSU46 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
35.6%
(14:17) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU44 (#88 R.Buckley)Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+33
34.2%
(13:32) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep right to #2 S.Phillips caught at MSU20, for 33 yards to the MSU11 (#30 A.Grose), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
36.0%
(12:57) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU08 (#10 W.Matthews; #13 I.Smith)Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
35.2%
(12:14) #28 K.Moulton rush left for 0 yards to the MSU08 (#23 D.Snow)Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
31.0%
(11:34) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short middle to #15 R.Vander Zee thrown to MSU00Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
39.7%
(11:27) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 11:27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1268% → 71%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.1%
(11:26) #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #44 J.Coyne caught at MSU25, for 6 yards to the MSU31 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
29.8%
(10:49) Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU33 (#48 M.Llewellyn)Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
27.9%
(10:12) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right thrown to MSU40 QB hurried by #43 K.ShararSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
29.1%
(10:06) #96 R.Eckley punt 42 yards to the IOWA25 fair catch by #21 K.Wetjen at IOWA25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2734% → 29%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
33.7%
(09:59) Shotgun #8 T.Washington Jr. rush right for 8 yards loss to the IOWA17 (#10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+4
32.6%
(09:22) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA21 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
30.2%
(08:38) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Gill thrown to IOWA36Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
28.6%
(08:31) #9 R.Dakin punt 53 yards to the MSU26 #1 O.Kelly return 6 yards to the MSU32 (#12 J.Rexroth)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5075% → 75%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
25.0%
(08:20) #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU35 (#26 K.Kolarik; #41 J.Harrell)Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
24.0%
(07:38) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #7 B.Tullis thrown to MSU30Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
24.8%
(07:34) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #19 C.Taplin thrown to MSU42 QB hurried by #90 B.AllenSimilar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
25.3%
(07:26) #96 R.Eckley punt 11 yards to the MSU46, out of bounds at MSU46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:2736% → 23%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
36.3%
(07:21) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush left for 9 yards gain to the MSU37 (#30 A.Grose)Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
34.1%
(06:43) #28 K.Moulton rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU32 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
34.7%
(06:00) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU32 (#5 J.Hall; #10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
32.7%
(05:18) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU30 (#88 R.Buckley)Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-3
30.3%
(04:34) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MSU33 (#14 M.Bell)Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 11
OPP 33
0
23.3%
(03:50) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete deep middle to #81 D.Vonnahme thrown to MSU02, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5586% → 87%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
14.0%
(03:43) #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU34 (#48 M.Llewellyn)Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-6
12.8%
(03:03) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MSU28 (#49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
13.7%
(02:58) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #7 B.Tullis thrown to MSU33 QB hurried by #48 M.LlewellynSimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+40
12.7%
(02:50) #96 R.Eckley punt 54 yards to the IOWA18 #21 K.Wetjen return 40 yards to the MSU42 (#41 D.Santiago), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:0427% → 68%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.6%
(02:37) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme thrown to MSU23Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
26.1%
(02:33) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush right for 16 yards gain to the MSU26 (#2 A.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
29.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 12 yards gain to the MSU14 (#9 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
27.2%
(01:48) #21 K.Wetjen rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU13 (#2 A.West)Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
67.6%
(01:29) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #5 J.Gill caught at MSU00, for 13 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:29, 1ST DOWN #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:4250% → 53%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
50.4%
(01:28) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU36, for 12 yards to the MSU37 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
47.9%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU36, for 8 yards to the MSU45 (#6 Z.Lutmer), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
43.4%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU45 (#91 J.Pace)Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
43.7%
(00:51) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #13 C.McCray thrown to MSU50 QB hurried by #4 K.EntringerSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
47.5%
(00:43) #11 A.Milivojevic punt 34 yards to the IOWA21, out of bounds at IOWA21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:3257% → 96%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
56.7%
(00:41) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA40, for 19 yards to the IOWA40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
60.8%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA45, for 6 yards to the IOWA46 (#30 A.Grose)Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+29
62.3%
(00:26) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep right to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at MSU28, for 29 yards to the MSU25 (#30 A.Grose), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
66.7%
(00:14) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU26 (#99 Q.Dunnigan)Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+44
95.7%
(00:02) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:02
(00:02) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 00:00
+45.1
TD · Q4 1:29
(01:29) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #5 J.Gill caught at MSU00, for 13 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:29, 1ST DOWN #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)
+40.4
TD · Q3 1:13
(01:13) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at IOWA00, for 5 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:13 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills)
-17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com