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USC

USC 27 at Oregon 42

ORE
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:42 · (12:44) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 29 yards to the USC16 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+20.5Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: (14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Lemon pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at ORE00, for 24 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper) — USC win probability +4.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:58: (10:11) #80 S.Johnson punt 49 yards to the ORE15 #4 M.Benson return 85 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:58 #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso) — ORE win probability +6.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:13: Kenyon Sadiq 28 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick) — USC win probability +3.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:32: Lake McRee 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — USC win probability +9.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:30: Noah Whittington 9 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick) — ORE win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 6:03USC 4th & 8 at USC 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:42ORE 4th & 11 at USC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:58USC 4th & 6 at USC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  4. Q3 12:08ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 45, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.6%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:36USC 4th & 10 at ORE 45, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%−0.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:28USC 4th & 2 at ORE 18, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:09USC 4th & 16 at USC 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:34ORE 4th & 21 at ORE 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−3.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:48USC 4th & 3 at USC 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:24USC 4th & 10 at ORE 26, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:11ORE 4th & 5 at USC 45, up 15
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:54USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:31ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:52USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:58ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:32USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:30ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0022% → 25%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #6 M.Lemon thrown to USC27 QB hurried by #52 A.WashingtonSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.1%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC27, for 4 yards to the USC29 (#54 J.Mixon; #22 J.Canady)Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+27
77.9%
(14:13) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep left to #8 J.Lane caught at ORE46, for 27 yards to the ORE44, out of bounds at ORE44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
77.7%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #30 K.Miller caught at USC48, for 1 yard loss to the ORE45 (#10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+4
77.5%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ORE41 (#44 T.Tuioti; #22 J.Canady)Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
77.4%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #30 K.Miller thrown to ORE25 PENALTY ORE Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ORE41 to ORE36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+6
77.3%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ORE30 (#28 B.Boettcher; #9 B.Purchase), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
77.2%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Lane thrown to ORE22 broken up by #1 B.AlexanderSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+16
77.1%
(12:09) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at ORE14, for 16 yards to the ORE14 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
76.9%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 4 yards gain to the ORE10 (#10 M.Uiagalelei; #26 D.Jackson)Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
76.5%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE08 (#1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
75.1%
(09:58) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at ORE10, for 8 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:54, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:3776% → 77%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
75.5%
(09:51) #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE38 (#1 K.Crawford; #9 K.Silver)Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+24
75.4%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #4 M.Benson caught at ORE47, for 24 yards to the USC38 (#24 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
75.3%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #4 M.Benson caught at USC41, for 3 yards to the USC35 (#23 D.Stephens II; #24 C.Pierce)Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+20
75.3%
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #11 J.McClellan caught at USC31, for 20 yards to the USC15 (#23 D.Stephens II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
76.9%
(07:34) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #23 D.Hill Jr caught at USC21, for 4 yards to the USC11 (#24 C.Pierce)Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
76.8%
(07:08) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush left for 11 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:5024% → 24%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.9%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at USC36, for 11 yards to the USC36 (#31 D.Thieneman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.7%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #85 W.Lyons thrown to USC43 broken up by #9 B.PurchaseSimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
75.7%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 2 yards gain to the USC38 (#44 T.Tuioti; #28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
75.5%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Lane thrown to USC36Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
76.0%
(06:06) #80 S.Johnson punt 44 yards to the ORE18 fair catch by #4 M.Benson at ORE18 PENALTY USC Kick Catch Interference (#16 T.Hines) 15 yards from ORE18 to ORE33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:2376% → 79%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
75.8%
(06:01) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush left for 7 yards gain to the ORE40 (#28 K.Urlacher)Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
76.1%
(05:15) #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short middle to #6 N.Whittington thrown to ORE45Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+15
75.8%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #9 J.Johnson caught at ORE42, for 15 yards to the USC45 (#28 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
76.2%
(04:37) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Benson thrown to USC40Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
76.2%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #18 K.Sadiq caught at USC33, for 14 yards to the USC31 (#28 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
76.3%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC28 (#23 D.Stephens II; #4 J.Stewart)Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+9
76.1%
(03:22) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USC19 (#31 J.Walker; #24 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
76.1%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #14 J.Lowe thrown to USC11Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
76.1%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USC10 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
75.6%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC08 (#6 A.Lucas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
79.0%
(01:32) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #18 K.Sadiq caught at USC00, for 8 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:31 #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2922% → 29%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.7%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Lemon rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC26 (#4 B.Finney)Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+40
77.7%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at ORE39, for 40 yards to the ORE34 (#5 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#16 T.Hines) 15 yards from ORE34 to ORE49Similar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
76.5%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE48 (#54 J.Mixon; #10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
76.6%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep left to #8 J.Lane thrown to ORE25 PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (#4 B.Finney) 15 yards from ORE48 to ORE33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
75.9%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at ORE28, for 9 yards to the ORE24 (#0 D.Austin; #31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+24
71.2%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Lemon pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at ORE00, for 24 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:0574% → 73%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.0%
(14:51) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #6 N.Whittington caught at ORE25, for 8 yards to the ORE33 (#31 J.Walker), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+23
74.5%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete deep right to #11 J.McClellan caught at USC45, for 23 yards to the USC44 (#24 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
75.2%
PENALTY ORE Illegal Snap (#70 C.Pickard) 5 yards from USC44 to USC49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+4
74.3%
(13:25) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #6 N.Whittington caught at USC48, for 4 yards to the USC45 (#18 E.Gentry)Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
74.7%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Benson thrown to USC40Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
73.8%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #11 J.McClellan thrown to USC31Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
73.0%
(12:44) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 29 yards to the USC16 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT TD
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3828% → 22%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
72.4%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #6 M.Lemon thrown to USC45Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-1
72.6%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC12, for 1 yard loss to the USC15 (#31 D.Thieneman; #7 I.Obidegwu)Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+17
72.9%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at USC32, for 17 yards to the USC32 (#4 B.Finney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
71.5%
(11:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC35 (#28 B.Boettcher; #44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
71.1%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC36 (#54 J.Mixon; #28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
71.3%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #6 M.Lemon thrown to ORE38 broken up by #22 J.Canady QB hurried by #10 M.UiagaleleiSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+85
78.1%
(10:11) #80 S.Johnson punt 49 yards to the ORE15 #4 M.Benson return 85 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:58 #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8INT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5822% → 17%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.7%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep middle to #6 M.Lemon thrown to ORE35Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.8%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 5 yards gain to the USC30 (#26 D.Jackson; #22 J.Canady)Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
77.7%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #16 T.Hines caught at USC42, for 16 yards to the USC46 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
76.3%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #16 T.Hines caught at USC45, for 6 yards to the ORE48 (#22 J.Canady; #31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-9
81.2%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Southern California rush middle for 9 yards loss to the USC43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+1
82.9%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass intercepted by #7 I.Obidegwu at ORE30 QB hurried by #10 M.Uiagalelei #7 I.Obidegwu return for loss of 1 yard to the ORE29, End Of Play PENALTY USC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#8 J.Lane) 15 yards from ORE29 to ORE44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:4695% → 95%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.8%
(14:57) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush right for 6 yards gain to the ORE31 (#31 J.Walker; #23 D.Stephens II), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
94.9%
(14:32) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #18 K.Sadiq thrown to ORE31 broken up by #25 M.WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
94.8%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Whittington thrown to ORE25 PENALTY USC Offside (#6 A.Lucas) 5 yards from ORE31 to ORE36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
95.1%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #23 D.Hill Jr caught at ORE31, for 5 yards to the ORE41 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
95.3%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE44 (#97 J.Abasiri; #18 E.Gentry)Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+10
95.2%
(13:18) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at ORE43, for 10 yards to the USC46 (#24 C.Pierce) PENALTY ORE Holding (#11 J.McClellan) 10 yards from USC46 to ORE44Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
95.4%
(12:51) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE45 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
95.4%
(12:08) Shotgun #83 R.Saleapaga rush middle for 0 yards to the ORE45 (#8 D.Thompkins; #31 J.Walker), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:276% → 6%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.2%
(12:05) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the ORE45 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
94.4%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #6 M.Lemon thrown to ORE42Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
94.6%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #87 L.McRee thrown to ORE35 QB hurried by #1 B.Alexander and #9 B.PurchaseSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
94.2%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass intercepted by #22 J.Canady at ORE36, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:0496% → 96%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
95.6%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at ORE38, for 5 yards to the ORE41 (#28 K.Urlacher)Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
95.9%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ORE46 (#23 D.Stephens II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
96.0%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass intercepted by #28 K.Urlacher at USC48 #28 K.Urlacher return 14 yards to the ORE38 (#76 I.World) PENALTY USC Holding (#1 K.Crawford) 10 yards from ORE42 to USC48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:085% → 4%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
95.1%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 2 yards gain to the USC50 (#1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
50
+9
95.2%
(09:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC50, for 9 yards to the ORE41 (#10 M.Uiagalelei; #31 D.Thieneman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
95.3%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Lane thrown to ORE22 PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (#4 B.Finney) 15 yards from ORE41 to ORE26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
94.8%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush right for 6 yards gain to the ORE20 (#7 I.Obidegwu), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+1
95.2%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at ORE22, for 1 yard to the ORE19 (#54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+1
95.6%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 1 yard gain to the ORE18 (#28 B.Boettcher; #10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+7
95.7%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ORE11, out of bounds at ORE11, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
95.5%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush right for 3 yards gain to the ORE08 (#28 B.Boettcher; #21 A.Flowers)Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
95.6%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ORE04 (#7 I.Obidegwu; #26 D.Jackson)Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
96.1%
Makai Lemon 4 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2597% → 94%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
96.9%
(05:45) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush right for 13 yards gain to the ORE38 (#24 C.Pierce; #25 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.9%
(05:12) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ORE43 (#23 D.Stephens II; #88 F.Boucard)Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+10
97.0%
(04:42) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #11 J.McClellan caught at ORE39, for 10 yards to the USC47 (#23 D.Stephens II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
97.0%
(04:12) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 11 yards gain to the USC36 (#24 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
97.1%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC32 (#18 E.Gentry; #23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+4
97.3%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC28 (#4 J.Stewart; #10 B.Shelby)Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+28
93.6%
Kenyon Sadiq 28 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:449% → 8%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
90.6%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #87 L.McRee caught at USC30, for 13 yards to the USC31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
90.2%
(01:21) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC34 (#52 A.Washington; #28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
90.0%
(01:01) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #6 M.Lemon thrown to USC42Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-9
90.8%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava sacked for loss of 9 yards to the USC25 (#10 M.Uiagalelei), fumble by #14 J.Maiava recovered by USC #74 J.Tauanuu at USC25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
92.2%
(00:12) #80 S.Johnson punt 42 yards to the ORE33 fair catch by #4 M.Benson at ORE33 PENALTY ORE Running Into The Kicker declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3294% → 94%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
94.1%
(00:06) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ORE38 (#28 K.Urlacher; #6 A.Lucas)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-4
94.5%
(14:57) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush left for 4 yards loss to the ORE34 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-12
94.2%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush middle for 12 yards loss to the ORE22 fumbled by #5 D.Moore at ORE25 recovered by ORE #5 D.Moore at ORE22 (#8 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 21
OWN 22
+4
93.5%
(13:35) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 40 yards to the USC38 #6 M.Lemon return 4 yards to the USC42 (#83 R.Saleapaga)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:589% → 19%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
91.3%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep left to #6 M.Lemon thrown to ORE22 PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (#22 J.Canady) 15 yards from USC42 to ORE43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
91.1%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep left to #8 J.Lane thrown to ORE12 PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (#7 I.Obidegwu) 15 yards from ORE43 to ORE28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
89.9%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE26 (#31 D.Thieneman; #44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+14
90.1%
(12:33) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #30 K.Miller caught at ORE33, for 14 yards to the ORE12 (#28 B.Boettcher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
90.3%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE09 (#52 A.Washington; #99 T.Green)Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
81.3%
Lake McRee 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:4888% → 97%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
87.7%
(11:24) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #9 J.Johnson caught at ORE19, for 11 yards to the ORE32 (#23 D.Stephens II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
88.8%
(10:46) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush right for 6 yards gain to the ORE38 (#25 M.Williams; #1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
89.9%
(10:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Whittington thrown to ORE40 QB hurried by #10 B.ShelbySimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+10
89.3%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #4 M.Benson caught at ORE48, for 10 yards to the ORE48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
90.4%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE50 (#8 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 8
50
+7
90.6%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #18 K.Sadiq caught at ORE48, for 7 yards to the USC43 (#28 K.Urlacher), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
91.1%
(08:15) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC41 (#1 K.Crawford; #4 J.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
91.8%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC39 (#31 J.Walker; #18 E.Gentry)Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+7
92.2%
(07:04) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 7 yards gain to the USC32 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+8
92.3%
(06:09) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #9 J.Johnson caught at USC28, for 8 yards to the USC24 (#28 K.Urlacher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
94.0%
(05:36) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete deep left to #4 M.Benson thrown to USC04, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USC Pass Interference (#17 D.Nicholson) 15 yards from USC24 to USC09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.4%
Noah Whittington 9 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 49 yds · 2:584% → 3%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.1%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at USC29, for 5 yards to the USC30 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
96.0%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #30 K.Miller caught at USC26, for 3 yards loss to the USC27 (#28 B.Boettcher; #52 A.Washington)Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+5
97.0%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC32 (#10 M.Uiagalelei; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+32
97.0%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep left to #8 J.Lane caught at ORE40, for 32 yards to the ORE36 (#5 T.Johnson; #21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
96.7%
(03:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #16 T.Hines caught at ORE38, for 4 yards to the ORE32 (#32 N.Wyatt)Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+6
95.6%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #85 W.Lyons caught at ORE32, for 6 yards to the ORE26 (#31 D.Thieneman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
95.7%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep middle to #8 J.Lane thrown to ORE00Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
96.0%
(02:32) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #0 Z.Williams thrown to ORE14Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
96.3%
(02:28) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #6 M.Lemon thrown to ORE28Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 10
OPP 26
0
97.3%
(02:24) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #6 M.Lemon thrown to ORE15 broken up by #52 A.Washington, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:0798% → 99%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
98.2%
(02:19) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE27 (#23 D.Stephens II; #10 B.Shelby)Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+23
98.5%
(02:13) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush left for 8 yards gain to the ORE35 (#24 C.Pierce), out of bounds PENALTY USC Personal Foul (#23 D.Stephens II) 15 yards from ORE35 to ORE50, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
50
+1
98.8%
(01:57) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC49 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
98.8%
(01:53) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush left for 0 yards to the USC49 (#17 D.Nicholson; #97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+4
98.8%
(01:04) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC45 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
99.3%
(00:14) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 45 yards to the USC00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.2%
(00:08) Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 0 yards to the USC20 (#52 A.Washington; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:32
Lake McRee 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-9
TD · Q2 9:58
(10:11) #80 S.Johnson punt 49 yards to the ORE15 #4 M.Benson return 85 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:58 #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)
+6.8
TD · Q2 14:52
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Lemon pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at ORE00, for 24 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com