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IOWA

Iowa 21 at USC 26

USC
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:26 · (11:34) #9 R.Dakin punt 43 yards to the USC26 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior+3.8Home team on offense+6.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:12: (14:17) #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:12 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell) — IOWA win probability +6.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:15: (09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:15 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #0 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper) — USC win probability +10.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:24: (03:30) Shotgun #15 R.Vander Zee pass complete short right to #11 M.Gronowski caught at USC00, for 5 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:24 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell) — IOWA win probability +11.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:33: (03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at IOWA00, for 12 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:33, 1ST DOWN #14 J.Maiava pass attempt failed — USC win probability +22.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:36: (13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:36 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #0 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper) — USC win probability +19.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:26IOWA 4th & 1 at USC 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09USC 4th & 8 at USC 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:05IOWA 4th & 7 at USC 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:59USC 4th & 1 at USC 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:39USC 4th & 13 at IOWA 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:11USC 4th & 7 at IOWA 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−8.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:47IOWA 4th & 3 at midfield, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:26IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 31, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:33USC 4th & 8 at USC 45, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−2.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:59IOWA 4th & 6 at USC 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−3.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−10.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:26IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:12IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:15USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:24IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:33USC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    54.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:36USC Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:2030% → 32%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
69.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA39, for 14 yards to the IOWA45 (#31 J.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
69.5%
(14:21) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #21 K.Wetjen thrown to IOWA41Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+44
69.5%
(14:19) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep right to #5 J.Gill caught at USC32, for 44 yards to the USC11 (#7 K.Ramsey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
69.2%
(13:32) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USC05 (#97 J.Abasiri; #22 B.Conley)Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
69.0%
(12:56) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #48 Z.Ortwerth caught at USC08, for 3 yards to the USC02 (#7 K.Ramsey)Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
68.9%
(12:13) #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 0 yards to the USC02 (#18 E.Gentry; #23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
67.9%
(11:32) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #7 D.Howard caught at USC00, for 2 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:26, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USC Offside declined #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1168% → 67%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.1%
(11:26) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC28 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
67.9%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC27, for 1 yard loss to the USC27 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
67.4%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #8 J.Lane thrown to USC39Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
67.2%
(10:15) #0 S.Johnson punt 19 yards to the USC46, out of bounds at USC46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5533% → 33%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.9%
(10:09) #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete deep left to #21 K.Wetjen thrown to USC03 broken up by #7 K.RamseySimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
66.8%
(10:00) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 3 yards gain to the USC43 (#6 A.Lucas)Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
66.6%
(09:17) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Gill thrown to USC35Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
66.6%
(09:13) #9 R.Dakin punt 30 yards to the USC13 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:5967% → 65%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
66.7%
(09:05) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at USC10, for 5 yards to the USC18 (#6 Z.Lutmer), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+6
66.5%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 6 yards gain to the USC24 (#41 J.Harrell; #43 K.Sharar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
66.3%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #8 J.Lane caught at USC30, for 8 yards to the USC32 (#2 T.Hall), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+4
66.4%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC30, for 4 yards to the USC36 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
65.9%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava sacked for loss of 7 yards to the USC29 (#95 A.Graves)Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+5
65.3%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #16 T.Hines caught at USC31, for 5 yards to the USC34 (#6 Z.Lutmer), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+11
64.8%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC45, for 11 yards to the USC45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
65.2%
(05:03) No Huddle #30 K.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the USC45 (#43 K.Sharar), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:4136% → 47%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
63.6%
(04:59) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 4 yards gain to the USC41 (#8 D.Thompkins; #9 K.Silver). #9 K.Silver injured on the playSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+8
63.1%
(04:19) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 8 yards gain to the USC33 (#24 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
62.6%
(03:35) #4 J.Patterson rush right for 4 yards gain to the USC29 (#19 B.Fitzgerald; #24 C.Pierce)Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+1
62.0%
(02:52) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #21 K.Wetjen caught at USC31, for 1 yard to the USC28 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+15
61.8%
(02:17) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete deep left to #2 S.Phillips thrown to USC06 broken up by #17 D.Nicholson PENALTY USC Pass Interference (#17 D.Nicholson) 15 yards from USC28 to USC13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
61.5%
(02:12) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC09 (#23 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
60.8%
(01:26) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #28 K.Moulton caught at USC08, for 1 yard to the USC08 (#17 D.Nicholson)Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
60.6%
(00:37) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USC02 (#19 B.Fitzgerald; #17 D.Nicholson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.8%
(15:00) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC01 (#6 A.Lucas; #24 C.Pierce)Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.3%
(14:17) #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:12 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5156% → 62%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.5%
(14:12) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 3 yards gain to the USC28 (#1 X.Nwankpa). #77 A.Noa injured on the playSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
54.9%
(13:50) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #16 T.Hines thrown to USC40Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
54.4%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #8 J.Lane thrown to USC41 PENALTY IOWA Holding (#8 D.Lee) 10 yards from USC28 to USC38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
55.5%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 8 yards gain to the USC46 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
55.4%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC47 (#95 A.Graves; #43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+20
54.6%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush left for 20 yards gain to the IOWA33 (#8 D.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
53.9%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #6 M.Lemon thrown to IOWA26 broken up by #43 K.ShararSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
53.7%
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 6 yards gain to the IOWA27 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+9
52.6%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #85 W.Lyons caught at IOWA30, for 9 yards to the IOWA18 (#2 T.Hall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
52.8%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #8 J.Lane caught at IOWA04, for 14 yards to the IOWA04 (#2 T.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
51.7%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #85 W.Lyons caught at IOWA02, for 3 yards to the IOWA01 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.7%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:15 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #0 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3842% → 61%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.7%
(09:15) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush left for 1 yard gain to the IOWA26 (#31 J.Walker)Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
57.5%
(08:40) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA30 (#18 E.Gentry)Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+32
55.5%
(07:56) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA34, for 32 yards to the USC38 (#23 D.Stephens II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
53.1%
(07:09) PENALTY IOWA False Start (#67 G.Dunker) 5 yards from USC38 to USC43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+16
53.0%
(06:45) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 16 yards gain to the USC27 (#28 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
51.8%
(06:02) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 11 yards gain to the USC16 (#31 J.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
51.5%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC13 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+5
50.9%
(05:01) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC08 (#28 K.Urlacher)Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
50.8%
(04:16) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush right for 3 yards gain to the USC05 (#28 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.4%
(03:30) Shotgun #15 R.Vander Zee pass complete short right to #11 M.Gronowski caught at USC00, for 5 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:24 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:3642% → 44%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.8%
(03:24) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #87 L.McRee caught at USC33, for 8 yards to the USC33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+17
42.3%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 17 yards gain to the USC50 (#44 K.Merrieweather), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
50
+2
42.7%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA48 (#44 K.Merrieweather)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+28
40.8%
(02:00) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #6 M.Lemon caught at IOWA20, for 28 yards to the IOWA20 (#1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
41.3%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at IOWA18, for 2 yards to the IOWA18 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
40.8%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #87 L.McRee thrown to IOWA06 broken up by #4 K.EntringerSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+5
39.8%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at IOWA04, for 14 yards to the IOWA04 (#8 D.Lee), out of bounds PENALTY USC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#67 K.O'Connor) 5 yards from IOWA18 to IOWA23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
39.3%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #30 K.Miller thrown to IOWA20Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
43.5%
(00:44) #48 R.Sayeri field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #0 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper), clock 00:39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9END OF HALF
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:1859% → 59%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
41.5%
(00:32) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA26, for 10 yards to the IOWA37 (#24 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
40.8%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#28 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
39.7%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA50 (#18 E.Gentry), out of bounds PENALTY IOWA Holding (#67 G.Dunker) 10 yards from IOWA47 to IOWA37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+10
41.2%
(00:07) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#23 D.Stephens II; #24 C.Pierce)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3943% → 45%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
42.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 9 yards gain to the USC28 (#12 J.Rexroth; #43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+12
43.4%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at USC40, for 12 yards to the USC40, out of bounds at USC40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
43.3%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #6 M.Lemon caught at IOWA36, for 24 yards to the IOWA36 (#4 K.Entringer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
44.4%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 24 yards gain (6) to the IOWA12 (#1 X.Nwankpa) PENALTY USC Holding (#8 D.Thompkins) 10 yards from IOWA30 to IOWA40Similar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 14
OPP 40
+26
42.9%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep left to #6 M.Lemon caught at IOWA20, for 26 yards to the IOWA14 (#1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
44.6%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA11 (#49 E.Hurkett), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
44.1%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #87 L.McRee thrown to IOWA11 broken up by #12 J.RexrothSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
42.3%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Lane thrown to IOWA00 broken up by #8 D.LeeSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
44.9%
(11:15) #48 R.Sayeri field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #0 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper), clock 11:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:1959% → 62%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.5%
(11:11) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 4 yards gain to the IOWA29 (#31 J.Walker)Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
40.2%
(10:35) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #21 K.Wetjen caught at IOWA27, for 14 yards to the IOWA43 (#24 C.Pierce), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
38.4%
(10:00) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA48 (#23 D.Stephens II; #6 A.Lucas)Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
37.1%
(09:19) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA50 (#97 J.Abasiri; #28 K.Urlacher)Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 3
50
0
36.7%
(08:33) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 0 yards to the IOWA50 (#23 D.Stephens II; #8 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 3
50
0
37.6%
(07:57) #9 R.Dakin punt 32 yards to the USC18 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 4:0440% → 62%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
39.9%
(07:47) Shotgun #6 M.Lemon rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC19 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+35
39.2%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #6 M.Lemon caught at IOWA46, for 35 yards to the IOWA46 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
43.3%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 8 yards gain to the IOWA38 fumbled by #30 K.Miller at IOWA38 forced by #1 X.Nwankpa recovered by USC #6 M.Lemon at IOWA38 (#44 K.Merrieweather)Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
43.2%
(05:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 0 yards to the IOWA38 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+9
40.3%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the IOWA29 (#4 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
41.8%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #87 L.McRee thrown to IOWA10 broken up by #36 J.MontgomerySimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
41.6%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA26 (#2 T.Hall)Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+14
39.3%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #8 J.Lane caught at IOWA16, for 14 yards to the IOWA12 (#43 K.Sharar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
61.5%
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at IOWA00, for 12 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:33, 1ST DOWN #14 J.Maiava pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3048% → 51%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
52.0%
(03:33) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 13 yards gain to the IOWA38 (#23 D.Stephens II; #17 D.Nicholson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
49.5%
(02:50) #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short middle to #21 K.Wetjen thrown to USC45Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
49.7%
(02:44) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IOWA44 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-4
48.8%
(02:00) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass intercepted by #4 J.Stewart at IOWA44 broken up by #25 M.Williams #4 J.Stewart return 4 yards to the IOWA40 (#67 G.Dunker). The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0760% → 78%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
59.5%
(01:51) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush left for 1 yard gain to the IOWA39 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+10
59.3%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at IOWA31, for 10 yards to the IOWA29 (#8 D.Lee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
61.4%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #16 T.Hines thrown to IOWA00 PENALTY IOWA Pass Interference (#2 T.Hall) 15 yards from IOWA29 to IOWA14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
61.3%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #87 L.McRee caught at IOWA10, for 7 yards to the IOWA07 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
61.2%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA05 (#95 A.Graves)Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
58.7%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #87 L.McRee caught at IOWA01, for 4 yards to the IOWA01 (#43 K.Sharar), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.2%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:36 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #0 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5630% → 28%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
69.7%
(13:29) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 0 yards to the IOWA28 (#6 A.Lucas)Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
70.5%
(12:46) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA26, for 3 yards to the IOWA31 (#17 D.Nicholson; #18 E.Gentry), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
71.0%
(12:02) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #15 R.Vander Zee thrown to IOWA35 QB hurried by #88 F.BoucardSimilar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
72.4%
(11:34) #9 R.Dakin punt 43 yards to the USC26 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4578% → 78%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
77.6%
(11:26) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 2 yards gain to the USC28 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
77.7%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep middle to #8 J.Lane thrown to IOWA30 broken up by #4 K.EntringerSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+15
76.1%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #8 J.Lane thrown to IOWA45 PENALTY IOWA Pass Interference (#3 J.Watson) 15 yards from USC28 to USC43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
79.7%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC46 (#4 K.Entringer)Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-6
80.2%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava sacked for loss of 6 yards to the USC40 (#49 E.Hurkett), fumble by #14 J.Maiava, out of bounds at USC40Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+5
77.0%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC45, for 5 yards to the USC45 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
78.2%
(08:40) #0 S.Johnson punt 45 yards to the IOWA10 fair catch by #21 K.Wetjen at IOWA10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 61 yds · 6:3429% → 26%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
70.9%
(08:33) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #21 K.Wetjen caught at IOWA14, for 4 yards to the IOWA14, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
72.9%
(07:57) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 3 yards to the IOWA11 (#6 A.Lucas), fumble by #11 M.Gronowski recovered by USC #97 J.Abasiri at IOWA11, End Of Play PENALTY USC Holding offsetting IOWA Holding offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+4
72.9%
(07:36) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA18 (#31 J.Walker)Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+4
76.0%
(06:53) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at IOWA19, for 4 yards to the IOWA22 (#17 D.Nicholson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
74.9%
(06:16) Shotgun #21 K.Wetjen rush left for 21 yards gain to the IOWA43 (#31 J.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
71.6%
(05:34) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 5 yards gain to the IOWA48 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+19
70.2%
(04:54) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 19 yards gain to the USC33 (#17 D.Nicholson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
67.2%
(04:15) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush right for 0 yards to the USC33 (#6 A.Lucas)Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
68.8%
(03:35) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush right for 1 yard gain to the USC32 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+3
71.6%
(02:48) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush right for 3 yards gain to the USC29 (#6 A.Lucas)Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 6
OPP 29
0
74.1%
(02:04) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete deep left to #21 K.Wetjen thrown to USC08 broken up by #28 K.Urlacher, TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18END OF GAME
10 plays · 28 yds · 6:4889% → 96%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
88.8%
G. Roy run for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
92.9%
(01:59) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC31 (#4 K.Entringer)Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
92.9%
(01:55) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC39, for 9 yards to the USC40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY IOWA Offside declinedSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
94.0%
(01:42) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC43 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
94.3%
(01:36) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC45 (#4 K.Entringer) PENALTY IOWA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from USC45 to IOWA40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
95.0%
(00:58) Kneel down by USC at IOWA41 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-2
95.6%
(00:27) Kneel down by USC at IOWA43 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:33
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at IOWA00, for 12 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:33, 1ST DOWN #14 J.Maiava pass attempt failed
+22.2
TD · Q4 13:36
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:36 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #0 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)
+19.4
TD · Q2 3:24
(03:30) Shotgun #15 R.Vander Zee pass complete short right to #11 M.Gronowski caught at USC00, for 5 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:24 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com