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MD

Maryland 6 at Illinois 24

ILL
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:12 · (10:17) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #9 D.Fleming thrown to ILL00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Pregame prior+7.6Home team on offense+21.1Score differential+8.7Garbage-time factor+6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Hudson Clement 22 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick) — ILL win probability +2.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 6:12: (06:12) #36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #96 E.Gough), clock 06:12 — MD win probability +2.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 1:38: Kaden Feagin 3 Yd Run (David Olano Kick) — ILL win probability +7.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:48: (00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at ILL17, for 9 yards to the ILL19 (#1 D.Wingate; #27 L.Roland) — ILL win probability +5.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:55: Hudson Clement 23 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick) — ILL win probability +4.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 9:15MD 4th & 7 at ILL 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:30ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:05MD 4th & 1 at ILL 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:05MD 4th & 13 at MD 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:56ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 27, up 4
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:23MD 4th & 3 at MD 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:58ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:12MD 4th & 5 at ILL 25, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:54ILL 4th & 1 at MD 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−1.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:00MD 4th & 6 at ILL 41, down 8
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:13MD 4th & 5 at MD 40, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:31ILL 4th & 1 at MD 1, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:12MD 4th & 3 at ILL 3, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−3.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:19ILL 4th & 11 at MD 15, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:28MD 4th & 4 at MD 31, down 18
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:00ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:38ILL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:55ILL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:3313% → 15%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington rush right for 2 yards gain to the UMD27 (#10 M.Scott)Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
87.2%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #0 D.Williams caught at UMD29, for 7 yards to the UMD34 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
87.0%
(13:58) #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #1 J.Farooq caught at UMD36, for 3 yards to the UMD37 (#5 T.Cox Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
86.8%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #1 J.Farooq caught at UMD42, for 6 yards to the UMD43 (#16 T.Heckel)Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
86.7%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #5 O.Smith Jr. caught at UMD40, for 6 yards to the UMD49 (#16 T.Heckel; #28 D.Rosiek), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
86.5%
(12:28) Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush middle for 16 yards gain to the ILL35 (#5 T.Cox Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
86.2%
(11:51) Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush right for 5 yards gain to the ILL30 (#45 M.Hood)Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+5
85.9%
(11:12) #2 N.Ray rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL25 (#7 M.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
85.6%
(10:32) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #4 S.Knotts caught at ILL20, for 12 yards to the ILL13 (#28 D.Rosiek), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
85.4%
(09:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL10 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
85.3%
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #89 A.Szymanski thrown to ILL05 broken up by #28 D.RosiekSimilar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
85.3%
(09:20) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #4 S.Knotts thrown to ILL00 broken up by #5 T.Cox Jr.Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+29
85.4%
(09:15) #36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #96 E.Gough), clock 09:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3385% → 84%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.3%
(09:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at ILL23, for 1 yard to the ILL26 (#13 L.Scruggs)Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
85.0%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 4 yards gain to the ILL30 (#32 C.Smith). #14 J.Glasker injured on the playSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
84.7%
(07:54) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete deep right to #13 H.Clement thrown to UMD48 broken up by #22 J.Huskey. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:54) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete deep right to #13 H.Clement caught at UMD48, for 25 yards to the UMD45 (#22 J.Huskey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
84.4%
(07:30) #40 K.Crimmins punt 44 yards to the UMD26 fair catch by #1 J.Farooq at UMD26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:1916% → 17%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
84.5%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Ray rush middle for 0 yards to the UMD26 (#99 C.Neal)Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+16
84.3%
(06:47) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #5 O.Smith Jr. caught at UMD42, for 16 yards to the UMD42 (#6 J.Clarke), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.6%
(06:06) Shotgun #2 N.Ray rush right for 0 yards to the UMD42 (#28 D.Rosiek; #7 M.Bailey). #90 J.Thompson Jr. injured on the playSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
83.5%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #1 J.Farooq caught at UMD46, for 8 yards to the UMD50 (#45 M.Hood)Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 2
50
+1
83.1%
(04:58) Shotgun #2 N.Ray rush right for 1 yard gain to the ILL49 (#6 J.Clarke)Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
82.9%
(04:11) Shotgun #2 N.Ray rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL49 (#5 T.Cox Jr.), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:5483% → 85%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
83.4%
(04:05) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 5 yards gain to the UMD46 (#40 N.Taylor)Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
83.3%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UMD42 (#1 D.Wingate; #46 D.Fontus)Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+7
82.8%
(02:41) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at UMD40, for 7 yards to the UMD35 (#13 L.Scruggs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
83.0%
(02:07) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UMD36 (#57 B.Jenkins)Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+6
82.3%
(01:28) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #14 C.Rusk caught at UMD30, for 6 yards to the UMD30 (#22 J.Huskey)Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+8
82.0%
(00:43) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 8 yards gain to the UMD22 (#13 L.Scruggs; #9 Z.Mathis), 1ST DOWN. #1 D.Wingate injured on the playSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
84.6%
Hudson Clement 22 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 1:5617% → 17%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.3%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #1 J.Farooq caught at UMD23, for 5 yards to the UMD30 (#7 M.Bailey; #96 E.Coenen)Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
83.0%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete deep left to #4 S.Knotts thrown to ILL27 PENALTY ILL Offside (#4 D.Brown) 5 yards from UMD30 to UMD35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.0%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #84 K.Webb thrown to UMD50Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
83.1%
(14:52) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #1 J.Farooq caught at UMD40, for 13 yards to the UMD48 (#41 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
82.0%
(14:08) #7 M.Washington sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UMD45 (#17 G.Jacas, #52 P.Farrell)Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
82.5%
(13:23) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Farooq thrown to UMD47 broken up by #6 J.ClarkeSimilar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
82.7%
(13:20) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete deep left to #84 K.Webb thrown to ILL32Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
83.1%
(13:05) #34 B.McFerson punt 55 yards to the ILL00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0583% → 82%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.1%
(13:03) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete deep left to #0 J.Bowick thrown to ILL40Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
83.0%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ILL27 (#13 L.Scruggs)Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
82.7%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #85 T.Arkin thrown to ILL32 broken up by #33 M.Delhomme. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #85 T.Arkin caught at ILL32, for 5 yards to the ILL32 (#33 M.Delhomme), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
82.1%
(11:56) #40 K.Crimmins punt 38 yards to the UMD35 fair catch by #1 J.Farooq at UMD35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3317% → 18%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.7%
PENALTY UMD False Start (#66 A.Bah) 5 yards from UMD35 to UMD30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+9
83.0%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #5 O.Smith Jr. caught at UMD30, for 9 yards to the UMD39 (#5 T.Cox Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
81.9%
(11:16) Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMD42 (#10 M.Scott)Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
81.8%
(10:33) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #4 S.Knotts thrown to UMD45 broken up by #44 A.McCullomSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
82.5%
(10:29) #34 B.McFerson punt 47 yards to the ILL11 fair catch by #80 H.Beatty at ILL11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:1983% → 82%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
83.0%
(10:23) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL12 (#10 C.Rice)Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+14
82.9%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ILL26 (#32 C.Smith; #6 D.Joyner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
82.9%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to ILL30Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
82.7%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 3 yards gain to the ILL29 (#33 M.Delhomme)Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-11
82.4%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer sacked for loss of 11 yards to the ILL18 (#9 Z.Mathis)Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
82.0%
(07:58) #40 K.Crimmins punt 28 yards to the ILL46 fair catch by #5 O.Smith Jr. at ILL46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4018% → 20%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
82.5%
(07:52) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #84 K.Webb caught at ILL38, for 16 yards to the ILL30 (#7 M.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
81.7%
(07:31) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Williams thrown to ILL30 broken up by #28 D.Rosiek QB hurried by #96 E.CoenenSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
81.7%
(07:29) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #0 D.Williams caught at ILL35, for 1 yard loss to the ILL31 (#5 T.Cox Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+6
82.7%
(06:58) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #9 D.Fleming caught at ILL25, for 6 yards to the ILL25 (#9 L.Lowery Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
80.0%
(06:12) #36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #96 E.Gough), clock 06:12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:2382% → 89%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.0%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL26 (#23 K.Flowers)Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
81.7%
PENALTY UMD Delay Of Game (#40 N.Taylor) 5 yards from ILL26 to ILL31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
82.3%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 3 yards gain to the ILL34 (#23 K.Flowers)Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
82.1%
(04:42) #5 C.Valentine rush left for 7 yards gain to the ILL41 (#13 L.Scruggs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
82.4%
(04:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ILL48 (#31 M.Harris)Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
82.7%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short left to #5 C.Valentine thrown to UMD45Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+27
82.5%
(03:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete deep middle to #13 H.Clement caught at UMD29, for 27 yards to the UMD25 (#13 L.Scruggs), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UMD Offside declinedSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.4%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 0 yards to the UMD25 (#50 E.Moore Jr.)Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
83.0%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UMD17 (#32 C.Smith)Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
82.6%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UMD16 (#22 J.Huskey; #98 E.Thomas)Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+4
80.2%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at UMD17, for 4 yards to the UMD12 (#22 J.Huskey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
82.0%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UMD05 (#32 C.Smith)Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+2
82.0%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMD03 (#32 C.Smith)Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
88.7%
Kaden Feagin 3 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:3415% → 15%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.4%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Williams thrown to UMD30Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.5%
(01:33) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #84 K.Webb caught at UMD40, for 15 yards to the UMD40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
84.7%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #4 S.Knotts caught at ILL45, for 15 yards to the ILL45 (#16 T.Heckel), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
83.2%
(01:20) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete deep middle to #5 O.Smith Jr. thrown to ILL12Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
83.8%
(01:14) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #0 D.Williams caught at ILL42, for 4 yards to the ILL41 (#6 J.Clarke), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
83.4%
(01:09) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Williams thrown to ILL40 broken up by #44 A.McCullomSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
84.7%
(01:04) #34 B.McFerson punt 31 yards to the ILL10 fair catch by #80 H.Beatty at ILL10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12INT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:3790% → 91%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
89.8%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at ILL17, for 9 yards to the ILL19 (#1 D.Wingate; #27 L.Roland)Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+9
89.8%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #14 C.Rusk caught at ILL28, for 9 yards to the ILL28 (#1 D.Wingate), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
89.6%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #3 K.Feagin caught at ILL25, for 15 yards to the ILL43 (#1 D.Wingate), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
91.5%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Feagin thrown to ILL40 QB hurried by #9 Z.MathisSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
90.8%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush right for 11 yards gain to the UMD46 (#13 L.Scruggs) PENALTY ILL Holding (#75 B.Henderson) 10 yards from ILL43 to ILL33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 20
OWN 33
0
90.6%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass intercepted by #22 J.Huskey at UMD48, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0914% → 15%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
85.7%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #5 O.Smith Jr. thrown to ILL33 broken up by #16 T.Heckel PENALTY ILL Offside (#17 G.Jacas) 5 yards from UMD48 to ILL47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 5
OPP 47
0
84.6%
(00:04) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #5 O.Smith Jr. thrown to ILL30Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
84.9%
(00:00) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass intercepted by #10 M.Scott at ILL00, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:5286% → 92%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
86.4%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ILL44 (#13 L.Scruggs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
87.4%
(14:11) #5 C.Valentine rush right for 8 yards gain to the UMD48 (#13 L.Scruggs), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
87.5%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UMD44 (#1 D.Wingate; #10 C.Rice), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
87.4%
(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at UMD45, for 7 yards to the UMD37 (#1 D.Wingate), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
87.3%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UMD32 (#22 J.Huskey), 1ST DOWN. #98 E.Thomas injured on the playSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
87.5%
(11:43) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UMD23 (#23 K.Flowers)Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+23
92.3%
Hudson Clement 23 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:319% → 9%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.7%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington rush right for 1 yard gain to the UMD26 (#17 G.Jacas)Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
90.9%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #0 D.Williams caught at UMD31, for 9 yards to the UMD35 (#28 D.Rosiek), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.4%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short middle to #84 K.Webb thrown to UMD37 broken up by #99 C.NealSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
90.6%
(09:58) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #0 D.Williams caught at UMD35, for 5 yards to the UMD40 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
90.5%
(09:20) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #9 D.Fleming thrown to UMD44 broken up by #52 P.FarrellSimilar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
90.8%
(09:18) #34 B.McFerson punt 27 yards to the ILL33, out of bounds at ILL33 PENALTY UMD Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ILL33 to ILL38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 7:3693% → 95%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.4%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Feagin thrown to ILL40 QB hurried by #32 C.SmithSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
93.3%
(09:07) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush left for 1 yard gain to the ILL39 (#27 L.Roland)Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+13
93.2%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #0 J.Bowick caught at ILL48, for 13 yards to the UMD48 (#22 J.Huskey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
93.6%
K. Feagin run for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
93.8%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UMD40 (#13 L.Scruggs)Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+10
93.9%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush right for 10 yards gain to the UMD30 (#23 K.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
94.0%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMD27 (#46 D.Fontus)Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
94.1%
PENALTY UMD Offside (#57 B.Jenkins) 5 yards from UMD27 to UMD22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
94.3%
(05:39) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush right for 3 yards gain to the UMD19 (#32 C.Smith; #40 N.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.3%
(04:55) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 0 yards to the UMD19 (#23 K.Flowers)Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+18
95.6%
(04:14) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #1 M.Sanders II caught at UMD21, for 18 yards to the UMD01 (#13 L.Scruggs), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
95.7%
(03:45) #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UMD02 (#40 N.Taylor; #98 E.Thomas)Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.8%
(02:59) #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at UMD01, for 1 yard to the UMD01 (#14 J.Glasker; #22 J.Huskey)Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.8%
(02:12) #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 0 yards to the UMD01 (#31 M.Harris)Similar
Q3 1:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.4%
(01:36) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #80 H.Beatty thrown to UMD00 QB hurried by #32 C.Smith, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17DOWNS
20 plays · 95 yds · 6:145% → 5%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
94.6%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #5 O.Smith Jr. thrown to UMD20Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+10
94.6%
(01:24) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #0 D.Williams caught at UMD00, for 10 yards to the UMD12 (#6 J.Clarke; #43 J.Barna), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
94.4%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMD15 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+10
94.5%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #0 D.Williams caught at UMD18, for 10 yards to the UMD25 (#28 D.Rosiek), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
94.5%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #4 S.Knotts caught at UMD44, for 19 yards to the UMD44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
94.2%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington rush left for 6 yards gain to the UMD50 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 4
50
0
94.1%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #84 K.Webb thrown to ILL40 broken up by #6 J.ClarkeSimilar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 4
50
+5
94.3%
PENALTY UMD False Start (#61 M.Hershey) 5 yards from UMD50 to UMD45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+16
94.4%
(14:29) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #4 S.Knotts caught at ILL39, for 16 yards to the ILL39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
94.2%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #0 D.Williams caught at ILL37, for 6 yards to the ILL33 (#28 D.Rosiek)Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+17
93.4%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #84 K.Webb caught at ILL17, for 17 yards to the ILL16 (#10 M.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
93.6%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ILL08 (#16 T.Heckel)Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
93.6%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #84 K.Webb thrown to ILL00Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+5
94.2%
(12:22) Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL03 (#10 M.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
94.1%
(11:47) Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ILL04 (#3 A.Bryant)Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.2%
(11:05) #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #89 A.Szymanski thrown to ILL00Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
94.7%
(10:59) Shotgun #0 D.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL03 (#10 M.Scott)Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
94.8%
(10:17) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #9 D.Fleming thrown to ILL00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18FG
13 plays · 82 yds · 5:4997% → 99%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
96.8%
(10:11) #9 L.Altmyer pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Feagin thrown to ILL04 broken up by #29 S.StewartSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+27
96.8%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 27 yards gain to the ILL30 (#27 L.Roland), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UMD Personal Foul (#27 L.Roland) 15 yards from ILL30 to ILL45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
97.2%
(09:34) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL48 (#32 C.Smith)Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
97.2%
(08:53) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UMD46 (#22 J.Huskey)Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+20
97.4%
(08:07) No Huddle #23 J.Anderson rush left for 20 yards gain to the UMD26 (#13 L.Scruggs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
97.6%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UMD19 (#6 D.Joyner; #29 S.Stewart)Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
97.9%
(06:26) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush left for 5 yards gain to the UMD14 (#50 E.Moore Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
98.1%
(05:44) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 4 yards loss to the UMD18 (#40 N.Taylor; #23 K.Flowers)Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+3
98.0%
(04:58) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush middle for 18 yards gain (3) to the UMD00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:52 PENALTY ILL Holding (#5 C.Valentine) 10 yards from UMD15 to UMD25Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 21
OPP 25
0
98.0%
(04:51) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 0 yards to the UMD25 (#32 C.Smith)Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+10
98.1%
(04:43) Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #0 J.Bowick caught at UMD25, for 10 yards to the UMD15 (#23 K.Flowers). #58 M.Priestly injured on the playSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
98.9%
David Olano 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #5 O.Smith Jr. caught at UMD23, for 6 yards to the UMD31 (#7 M.Bailey), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.3%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #9 D.Fleming thrown to UMD35Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.3%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #9 D.Fleming thrown to UMD43 QB hurried by #36 T.Durojaiye PENALTY UMD Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.4%
(03:43) #34 B.McFerson punt 58 yards to the ILL11 #80 H.Beatty return 15 yards to the ILL26 (#89 A.Szymanski)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:4799% → 99%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
99.0%
(03:27) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush right for 8 yards gain to the ILL34 (#6 D.Joyner)Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+7
99.1%
(02:42) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ILL41 (#32 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL46 (#12 J.Shipps; #29 S.Stewart)Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
99.2%
(01:51) Shotgun #3 K.Feagin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UMD48 (#32 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
99.3%
(01:11) Kneel down by #9 L.Altmyer at UMD49 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-1
99.3%
(00:34) Kneel down by #9 L.Altmyer at UMD50 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:38
Kaden Feagin 3 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
+7.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:48
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short right to #80 H.Beatty caught at ILL17, for 9 yards to the ILL19 (#1 D.Wingate; #27 L.Roland)
+5.2
TD · Q3 10:55
Hudson Clement 23 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com