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MICH

Michigan 24 at Northwestern 22

NU
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Wrigley Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:17 · (09:29) #11 L.Akers punt 41 yards to the U-M31 #0 S.Morgan return 5 yards to the U-M36 fumbled by #0 S.Morgan at U-M36 forced by #49 L.Reardon recovered by NU #49 L.Reardon at U-M36, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior−13.6Home team on offense−10.0Score differential−4.4Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:29: (10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 9 yards gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:29 #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr) — MICH win probability +15.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:41: (00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:41 #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr) — MICH win probability +11.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:00: (13:00) Shotgun #8 P.Stone rush middle for 1 yard gain to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:00 #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #49 L.Reardon) — NU win probability +18.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 12:05: (12:07) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush right for 6 yards gain to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:05 #8 P.Stone pass attempt failed — NU win probability +34.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Dominic Zvada 31 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +87.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:28MICH 4th & 12 at NU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:08NU 4th & 1 at NU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:56NU 4th & 10 at NU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:08NU 4th & 8 at NU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:12MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:22NU 4th & 16 at MICH 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:00NU 4th & 8 at MICH 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−6.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02MICH 4th & 5 at NU 42, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.9%−1.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:42NU 4th & 10 at NU 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:17NU 4th & 7 at NU 28, down 8
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:09NU 4th & 9 at MICH 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−8.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:28NU 4th & 5 at NU 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:20MICH 4th & 1 at NU 24, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%−1.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−19.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:10NU 4th & 18 at NU 18, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−14.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:11MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:29MICH Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:41MICH Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:00NU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:05NU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    58.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 5:1879% → 77%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.6%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #23 J.Marshall caught at U-M30, for 8 yards to the U-M33 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
20.8%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the U-M36 (#33 B.Brus; #6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
21.1%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 5 yards to the U-M31 (#91 A.Hubbard)Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+10
21.3%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #4 A.Marsh caught at U-M36, for 10 yards to the U-M41 (#13 J.Fussell; #33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+13
21.6%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #1 D.McCulley caught at U-M45, for 13 yards to the NU46 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+32
21.7%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at NU32, for 32 yards to the NU14 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
21.9%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NU11 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-6
22.1%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 6 yards to the NU17 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+1
22.7%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 17 yards gain (1) to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:11 PENALTY U-M Holding (#54 A.Sprague) 10 yards from NU16 to NU26Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 22
OPP 27
+10
22.9%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #17 M.Klein caught at NU21, for 10 yards to the NU16 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+34
23.3%
(09:28) #96 D.Zvada field goal attempt from 34 yards NO GOOD (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr), clock 09:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 5:2223% → 26%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
23.4%
(09:21) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush left for 4 yards gain to the NU24 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
23.6%
(08:47) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU26 (#8 D.Moore)Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
23.8%
PENALTY U-M Offside (#1 J.Barham) 5 yards from NU26 to NU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
24.1%
(07:50) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU33 (#95 T.Pierce; #30 J.Rolder)Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
24.5%
(07:07) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU34 (#1 J.Barham; #44 D.Payne)Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+6
24.6%
(06:33) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at NU34, for 6 yards to the NU40 (#6 B.Hillman)Similar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+1
25.5%
(05:15) Shotgun #20 C.Farrell rush right for 1 yard gain to the NU41 (#39 J.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.2%
(04:48) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #19 D.Wagner thrown to U-M40Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
26.0%
(04:46) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #5 C.Komolafe thrown to NU40 broken up by #17 E.EttaSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
25.8%
(04:35) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep left to #17 G.Wilde thrown to U-M23. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (04:35) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete deep left to #17 G.Wilde caught at U-M23, for 36 yards to the U-M23, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
25.6%
(04:05) #11 L.Akers punt 50 yards to the U-M09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
14 plays · 91 yds · 5:3274% → 77%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
26.3%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at U-M20, for 12 yards to the U-M21 (#37 M.Uihlein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
26.4%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush left for 0 yards to the U-M21 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
26.5%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at U-M16, for 7 yards to the U-M28 (#18 G.Wallace)Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+4
26.9%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #83 Z.Marshall caught at U-M29, for 4 yards to the U-M32 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
26.8%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at U-M30, for 11 yards to the U-M43 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
26.4%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.McCulley thrown to NU31Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
26.7%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 15 yards gain to the NU42 (#2 F.Davis II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
26.4%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NU38 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
26.4%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 0 yards to the NU38 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #13 J.Fussell)Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+32
27.0%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete deep right to #4 A.Marsh caught at NU09, for 32 yards to the NU06 (#2 F.Davis II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
26.9%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 5 yards gain to the NU01 (#4 A.Saka; #1 C.Bastone)Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.7%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:11 #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5724% → 24%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.4%
(13:05) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #17 G.Wilde thrown to NU34 broken up by #10 Z.BerrySimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.4%
(12:59) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush right for 2 yards gain to the NU27 (#95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
24.1%
(12:16) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to U-M50 QB hurried by #15 E.HausmannSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
24.0%
(12:08) #11 L.Akers punt 50 yards to the U-M23 fair catch by #0 S.Morgan at U-M23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4676% → 75%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
24.5%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 6 yards to the U-M17 (#1 C.Bastone)Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 16
OWN 17
0
24.7%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short middle to #17 M.Klein thrown to U-M31Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 16
OWN 17
0
25.1%
(11:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep left to #1 D.McCulley thrown to U-M40Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 16
OWN 17
+7
25.5%
(11:20) #90 H.Hollenbeck punt 44 yards to the NU39 #19 D.Wagner return 7 yards to the NU46 (#29 C.Taylor; #83 Z.Marshall)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 5:4026% → 28%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
26.1%
(11:07) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the U-M47 (#9 C.Brandt)Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
26.9%
(10:30) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 0 yards to the U-M47 (#17 E.Etta; #26 R.Benny)Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
26.5%
PENALTY U-M Offside (#17 E.Etta) 5 yards from U-M47 to U-M42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
26.9%
(09:33) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #6 J.Himon II caught at U-M37, for 6 yards to the U-M36 (#4 T.Guy), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
27.0%
(09:13) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush right for 5 yards gain to the U-M31 (#18 T.Bowles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
28.2%
(08:33) Shotgun #19 D.Wagner rush left for 9 yards gain to the U-M22 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+17
27.7%
(07:44) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #84 H.Welcing caught at U-M08, for 17 yards to the U-M05 (#7 T.Metcalf), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
27.9%
(07:05) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 2 yards loss to the U-M07 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+15
28.1%
(06:29) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short middle to #80 H.Eligon II caught at U-M00, for 7 yards to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:21 PENALTY NU Pass Interference (#84 H.Welcing) 15 yards from U-M07 to U-M22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+6
27.6%
(06:13) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at U-M24, for 6 yards to the U-M16 (#25 M.Curtis)Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
24.9%
(05:28) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #84 H.Welcing thrown to U-M11 broken up by #1 J.BarhamSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
28.3%
(05:22) #82 J.Olsen field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine), clock 05:22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7FUMBLE
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5672% → 75%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.3%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the U-M30 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
27.9%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #1 D.McCulley caught at U-M36, for 7 yards to the U-M37 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
27.9%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 6 yards gain to the U-M43 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
27.5%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #4 A.Marsh thrown to U-M43 QB hurried by #33 B.BrusSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+8
27.0%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #88 D.Tonielli caught at NU49, for 8 yards to the NU49 (#13 J.Fussell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
25.4%
(02:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 12 yards gain to the NU37 (#2 F.Davis II; #37 M.Uihlein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
25.3%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Marsh rush right for 10 yards loss to the NU47 fumbled by #4 A.Marsh at NU45 forced by #4 A.Saka recovered by NU #33 B.Brus at NU47 #33 B.Brus return 6 yards to the U-M47 (#53 J.Guarnera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:5930% → 34%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
30.0%
(02:06) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the U-M44 (#95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
30.1%
(01:50) Shotgun #19 D.Wagner rush right for 0 yards to the U-M44 (#7 T.Metcalf)Similar
Q2 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
35.4%
(01:16) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short middle to #19 D.Wagner thrown to U-M00 QB hurried by #8 D.Moore PENALTY U-M Illegal Substitution 4 yards from U-M08 to U-M04. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+36
33.5%
(01:33) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short middle to #84 H.Welcing caught at U-M26, for 36 yards to the U-M08 (#20 J.Hill; #25 M.Curtis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
35.5%
(01:11) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #84 H.Welcing thrown to U-M00 broken up by #1 J.BarhamSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
35.5%
(01:06) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the U-M03 (#25 M.Curtis)Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.5%
(01:03) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short middle to #17 G.Wilde thrown to U-M00 broken up by #26 R.BennySimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
34.0%
(01:03) PENALTY NU False Start (#73 D.McGuire) 5 yards from U-M03 to U-M08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
34.1%
(01:00) #82 J.Olsen field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine), clock 01:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:5268% → 69%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
31.7%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at U-M42, for 17 yards to the U-M42 (#13 J.Fussell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
29.7%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at NU47, for 11 yards to the NU47 (#13 J.Fussell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
28.7%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at NU44, for 3 yards to the NU44, out of bounds at NU44Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
28.7%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #4 A.Marsh thrown to NU33 broken up by #13 J.FussellSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+2
29.6%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU42 (#95 N.Story; #47 M.Kilbane)Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+60
30.7%
(00:02) #96 D.Zvada field goal attempt from 60 yards NO GOOD (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1035% → 34%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
34.6%
(14:58) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at NU39, for 19 yards to the NU44 (#7 T.Metcalf), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
37.5%
(14:33) PENALTY NU False Start (#17 G.Wilde) 5 yards from NU44 to NU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
35.7%
(14:04) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #84 H.Welcing thrown to NU50 broken up by #8 D.MooreSimilar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+1
35.6%
(14:00) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU40 (#26 R.Benny)Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+4
34.7%
(13:19) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short middle to #84 H.Welcing caught at NU40, for 4 yards to the NU44 (#18 T.Bowles; #25 M.Curtis)Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
34.1%
(12:46) #11 L.Akers punt 41 yards to the U-M15 fair catch by #0 S.Morgan at U-M15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:0966% → 81%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
33.9%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.McCulley thrown to U-M30 broken up by #6 R.FitzgeraldSimilar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
34.3%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the U-M18 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+8
35.9%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 8 yards gain to the U-M26 (#33 B.Brus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+65
34.8%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 65 yards gain to the NU09 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
19.3%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 9 yards gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:29 #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0223% → 21%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.7%
(10:24) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NU28 (#0 T.Williams; #25 M.Curtis)Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
23.1%
(09:41) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep left to #17 G.Wilde thrown to U-M42Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
21.9%
(09:37) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short middle to #80 H.Eligon II thrown to NU47 broken up by #10 Z.Berry QB hurried by #1 J.BarhamSimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
21.3%
(09:29) #11 L.Akers punt 41 yards to the U-M31 #0 S.Morgan return 5 yards to the U-M36 fumbled by #0 S.Morgan at U-M36 forced by #49 L.Reardon recovered by NU #49 L.Reardon at U-M36, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5826% → 31%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
26.1%
(09:10) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush left for 1 yard gain to the U-M35 (#6 B.Hillman)Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+17
27.3%
(08:30) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush left for 17 yards gain to the U-M18 (#30 J.Rolder), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
27.1%
(07:58) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the U-M16 (#95 T.Pierce; #26 R.Benny)Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
27.2%
PENALTY NU False Start (#72 C.Tiernan) 5 yards from U-M16 to U-M21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+4
26.7%
(07:00) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush left for 4 yards gain to the U-M17 (#8 D.Moore)Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
25.8%
(06:14) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #83 B.Van Buren thrown to U-M15 QB hurried by #17 E.EttaSimilar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
30.9%
(06:11) #82 J.Olsen field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine), clock 06:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:1472% → 89%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
27.7%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 6 yards gain to the U-M26 (#94 M.Jackson; #33 B.Brus)Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+13
27.1%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #4 A.Marsh caught at U-M36, for 13 yards to the U-M39 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
25.6%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 5 yards gain to the U-M44 (#94 M.Jackson)Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+13
25.1%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #1 D.McCulley caught at U-M46, for 13 yards to the NU43 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
24.6%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush left for 1 yard loss to the NU44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+26
24.8%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #1 D.McCulley caught at NU30, for 26 yards to the NU18 (#13 J.Fussell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
23.4%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU17 (#13 J.Fussell; #33 B.Brus)Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+15
22.3%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #88 D.Tonielli thrown to NU00 broken up by #13 J.Fussell PENALTY NU Pass Interference (#13 J.Fussell) 15 yards from NU17 to NU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
22.3%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 3 yards loss to the NU05 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
22.3%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NU01 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.1%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:41 #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3616% → 37%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
16.0%
(00:39) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to NU26 PENALTY NU Intentional Grounding (#8 P.Stone)Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+32
15.4%
(00:34) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete deep middle to #17 G.Wilde caught at NU43, for 32 yards to the NU45, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
16.8%
(00:01) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at NU49, for 4 yards to the NU49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
16.6%
(14:53) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at NU45, for 4 yards to the U-M47 (#20 J.Hill)Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+22
16.9%
(14:08) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete deep right to #80 H.Eligon II caught at U-M25, for 22 yards to the U-M25, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
18.5%
(13:27) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short middle to #84 H.Welcing caught at U-M06, for 24 yards to the U-M01 (#6 B.Hillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.4%
(13:00) Shotgun #8 P.Stone rush middle for 1 yard gain to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:00 #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #49 L.Reardon)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4174% → 73%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.3%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 1 yard gain to the U-M26 (#47 M.Kilbane; #37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
26.4%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.McCulley thrown to NU44Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-29
26.8%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #9 B.Turner at U-M35 #9 B.Turner return 29 yards to the U-M06 (#19 B.Underwood)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q4 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
61.2%
(12:07) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush right for 6 yards gain to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:05 #8 P.Stone pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:5147% → 54%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.0%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the U-M29 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+24
52.0%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 24 yards gain to the NU47 (#37 M.Uihlein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
48.0%
(10:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NU39 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+3
47.7%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NU36 (#33 B.Brus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
48.3%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush left for 6 yards gain to the NU30 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #44 C.Campbell)Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-2
46.1%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #6 R.Fitzgerald at NU20 #6 R.Fitzgerald return 2 yards to the NU22 (#51 G.Crippen; #4 A.Marsh)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2757% → 55%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
56.9%
(08:59) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU23 (#26 R.Benny)Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+4
57.8%
(08:17) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #86 L.Albright caught at NU23, for 4 yards to the NU27 (#7 T.Metcalf), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
57.4%
(07:38) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep left to #84 H.Welcing thrown to NU49 broken up by #14 J.YoungSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+12
55.2%
(07:33) #11 L.Akers punt 44 yards to the U-M29 #4 A.Marsh return 12 yards to the U-M41 (#49 L.Reardon; #33 B.Brus)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:5850% → 47%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
50.4%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush left for 6 yards gain to the U-M47 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+20
49.2%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at NU41, for 20 yards to the NU33 (#9 B.Turner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
47.6%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 0 yards to the NU33 (#1 C.Bastone; #47 M.Kilbane)Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
48.2%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush left for 8 yards gain to the NU25 (#1 C.Bastone)Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
49.7%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Parker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU24 (#9 B.Turner)Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
52.9%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 0 yards to the NU24 fumbled by #24 B.Kuzdzal at NU25 recovered by NU #9 B.Turner at NU24 #9 B.Turner return 2 yards to the NU26 (#24 B.Kuzdzal)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5961% → 62%
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
60.9%
(04:09) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush left for 29 yards gain to the U-M45 (#20 J.Hill) PENALTY NU Holding (#83 B.Van Buren) 10 yards from NU26 to NU16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
62.0%
(04:09) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to NU21Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 20
OWN 16
-3
60.5%
(03:44) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush left for 3 yards loss to the NU13 (#1 J.Barham)Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 23
OWN 13
+5
62.5%
(02:54) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush left for 5 yards gain to the NU18 (#27 J.Sanders)Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
62.4%
(02:13) #11 L.Akers punt 45 yards to the U-M37 fair catch by #4 A.Marsh at U-M37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22FG
18 plays · 50 yds · 2:0540% → 94%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
59.9%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #4 A.Marsh thrown to NU49 broken up by #9 B.Turner PENALTY U-M Ineligible Downfield on Pass declinedSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
62.4%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #0 S.Morgan thrown to NU47Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+21
65.9%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete deep left to #4 A.Marsh caught at NU42, for 21 yards to the NU42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
55.1%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NU39 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
57.8%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #83 Z.Marshall caught at NU39, for 2 yards to the NU37 (#9 B.Turner)Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+9
59.0%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 9 yards gain to the NU28 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
55.0%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NU24 (#37 M.Uihlein; #47 M.Kilbane)Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+1
57.7%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU23 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+5
59.6%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NU18 (#47 M.Kilbane), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
56.3%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NU13 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+31
5.6%
Dominic Zvada 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Dominic Zvada 31 Yd Field Goal
-87.4
TD · Q4 12:05
(12:07) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush right for 6 yards gain to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:05 #8 P.Stone pass attempt failed
+34.4
TD · Q4 13:00
(13:00) Shotgun #8 P.Stone rush middle for 1 yard gain to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:00 #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #49 L.Reardon)
+18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com