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MINN

Minnesota 13 at Oregon 42

ORE
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2025 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:23 · (09:35) #42 T.Weston punt 49 yards to the ORE34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+43.4Home team on offense+0.9Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:23: (07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 39 yards gain to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:23, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso) — ORE win probability +0.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:39: (11:39) #92 B.Denaburg field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #80 A.Soukup), clock 11:39 — MINN win probability +0.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:37: (00:40) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN00, for 3 yards to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:37 #97 G.Hurych kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso) — ORE win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:17: (08:21) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #11 J.Tracy caught at ORE07, for 10 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17, 1ST DOWN #92 B.Denaburg kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #80 A.Soukup) — MINN win probability +4.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:52: (02:53) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #11 J.McClellan caught at MIN00, for 13 yards to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:52, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso) — ORE win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MINN made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 9:23MINN 4th & 18 at MINN 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:25MINN 4th & 20 at MINN 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:39MINN 4th & 10 at ORE 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:25MINN 4th & 8 at ORE 8, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:01MINN 4th & 15 at MINN 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:07MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 34, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:15MINN 4th & 21 at MINN 25, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:26MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 31, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:29ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 48, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:58MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 26, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:49MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 26, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:21ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 42, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:21ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 42, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:48ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:23ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:17MINN Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:52ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0596% → 95%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.6%
(14:57) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE26 (#0 A.Smith; #91 D.Eastern)Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
95.5%
(14:28) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #9 J.Johnson caught at ORE30, for 8 yards to the ORE34 (#14 K.Brown)Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
95.4%
(13:50) #0 J.Davison rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE35 (#6 M.Baranowski; #97 J.Logan-Redding), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
95.3%
(13:14) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE38 (#91 D.Eastern; #49 M.Kingsbury)Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+38
95.2%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete deep right to #4 M.Benson caught at MIN24, for 38 yards to the MIN24, out of bounds at MIN24, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
95.1%
(11:54) #5 D.Moore pass complete deep left to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN01, for 23 yards to the MIN01, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.0%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush middle for 0 yards to the MIN01 (#14 K.Brown)Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.9%
(10:53) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short middle to #83 R.Saleapaga thrown to MIN00 QB hurried by #49 M.KingsburySimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.2%
(10:47) #0 J.Davison rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:48 #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:255% → 5%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.1%
PENALTY MIN False Start (#50 N.Roy) 5 yards from MIN25 to MIN20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
95.1%
(10:43) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #87 D.Biber caught at MIN17, for 4 yards to the MIN24 (#9 B.Purchase)Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
95.0%
(10:17) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Taylor thrown to MIN21 broken up by #10 M.UiagaleleiSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-7
95.0%
(10:15) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey rush middle for 7 yards loss to the MIN17, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
95.0%
(09:35) #42 T.Weston punt 49 yards to the ORE34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:5295% → 95%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
94.9%
(09:20) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #9 J.Johnson caught at ORE40, for 9 yards to the ORE43 (#12 D.Green)Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
94.9%
(08:38) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ORE48 (#12 D.Green; #4 Z.Bryan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
94.8%
(08:00) Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush left for 13 yards gain to the MIN39, out of bounds at MIN39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
95.4%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 39 yards gain to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:23, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:585% → 5%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.1%
PENALTY ORE Offside (#54 J.Mixon) 5 yards from MIN25 to MIN30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+26
95.1%
(07:21) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete deep right to #8 J.Smith caught at ORE46, for 26 yards to the ORE44 (#4 B.Finney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.9%
(06:42) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Smith thrown to ORE25 broken up by #4 B.FinneySimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
95.0%
(06:35) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush left for 13 yards gain to the ORE31, out of bounds at ORE31 PENALTY MIN Holding (#86 J.Geers) 10 yards from ORE44 to MIN46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 20
OWN 46
0
95.0%
(06:18) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 0 yards to the MIN46 (#9 B.Purchase)Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 20
OWN 46
0
95.0%
(05:33) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Taylor thrown to MIN45 QB hurried by #32 N.WyattSimilar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 20
OWN 46
0
95.1%
(05:29) #42 T.Weston punt 39 yards to the ORE15, out of bounds at ORE15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5FUMBLE
13 plays · 27 yds · 5:2595% → 95%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
95.2%
(05:23) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ORE22 (#14 K.Brown)Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+8
95.2%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #14 J.Lowe caught at ORE23, for 8 yards to the ORE30 (#17 J.Nestor; #3 K.Perich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
95.1%
(04:22) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #23 D.Hill Jr caught at ORE25, for 5 yards to the ORE35 (#6 M.Baranowski; #17 J.Nestor)Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+14
95.0%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #0 J.Davison caught at ORE34, for 14 yards to the ORE49 (#17 J.Nestor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
95.1%
(03:13) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush right for 5 yards gain to the MIN46 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-1
95.1%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN47, for 1 yard loss to the MIN47 (#17 J.Nestor)Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+7
95.1%
(01:54) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN43, for 7 yards to the MIN40 (#6 M.Baranowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
95.2%
(01:06) #5 D.Moore sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MIN50 (#0 A.Smith)Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 20
50
+5
95.1%
(00:30) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #14 J.Lowe caught at MIN45, for 12 yards to the MIN38 (#17 J.Nestor) PENALTY ORE Illegal Formation (#76 I.World) 5 yards from MIN50 to ORE45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 25
OWN 45
+8
95.1%
(00:07) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush left for 8 yards gain to the MIN47 (#9 D.Williams)Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 17
OPP 47
-11
95.0%
(14:57) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #17 C.Perry caught at MIN50, for 11 yards loss to the ORE42 fumbled by #17 C.Perry at MIN50 recovered by MIN #11 K.Menz at ORE42, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:126% → 6%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.4%
(14:51) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Taylor thrown to ORE45 QB hurried by #0 D.AustinSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
94.5%
(14:44) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #7 F.Ijeboi caught at ORE40, for 9 yards to the ORE33 (#31 D.Thieneman), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+5
94.2%
(14:04) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ORE28 (#54 J.Mixon; #28 B.Boettcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
94.1%
(13:28) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #7 F.Ijeboi caught at ORE27, for 1 yard to the ORE27 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-1
94.1%
(12:47) Shotgun #7 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ORE28 (#1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
94.3%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete deep middle to #86 J.Geers thrown to ORE05 broken up by #31 D.ThienemanSimilar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
93.6%
(11:39) #92 B.Denaburg field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #80 A.Soukup), clock 11:39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5694% → 96%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.7%
(11:35) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #11 J.McClellan caught at ORE37, for 15 yards to the ORE40 (#17 J.Nestor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
93.9%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ORE47 (#11 K.Menz)Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+13
96.2%
(10:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #23 D.Hill Jr caught at MIN41, for 13 yards to the MIN40 (#13 M.Gerald), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
95.9%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 40 yards gain to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:31, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 6:565% → 6%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.5%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #1 D.Taylor caught at MIN23, for 7 yards to the MIN32 (#54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
95.3%
(08:47) PENALTY MIN False Start (#73 D.Ray) 5 yards from MIN32 to MIN27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
95.5%
(08:32) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #86 J.Geers caught at MIN24, for 1 yard to the MIN28 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
95.3%
(07:45) #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete deep left to #8 J.Smith thrown to ORE48 broken up by #31 D.Thieneman PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (#31 D.Thieneman) 15 yards from MIN28 to MIN43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
95.1%
(07:37) #3 K.Perich rush left for 5 yards gain to the MIN48 (#10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+10
94.8%
(06:55) #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #0 L.Brockington thrown to ORE42, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (#4 B.Finney) 10 yards from MIN48 to ORE42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
94.7%
(06:33) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #8 J.Smith caught at ORE45, for 3 yards to the ORE39 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
94.7%
(06:12) #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete deep left to #16 M.Coleman thrown to ORE12Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+17
94.8%
(06:07) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #1 D.Taylor caught at ORE36, for 17 yards to the ORE22 (#2 K.Lopa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
94.3%
(05:20) Shotgun #3 K.Perich rush left for 6 yards gain to the ORE16 (#28 B.Boettcher; #22 J.Canady)Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
94.3%
(04:41) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Smith thrown to ORE00Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+6
94.5%
(04:37) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #8 J.Smith caught at ORE18, for 6 yards to the ORE10 (#22 J.Canady), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
94.2%
(04:00) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #87 D.Biber caught at ORE10, for 1 yard to the ORE09 (#5 T.Johnson)Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
94.2%
(03:15) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #86 J.Geers caught at ORE08, for 1 yard to the ORE08 (#21 A.Flowers; #44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
94.6%
(02:32) #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Tracy thrown to ORE00Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
94.1%
(02:25) #92 B.Denaburg field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #80 A.Soukup), clock 02:25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:3795% → 98%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.9%
(02:23) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #6 N.Whittington caught at ORE32, for 8 yards to the ORE33, out of bounds at ORE33Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
95.0%
(01:55) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #0 J.Davison caught at ORE35, for 5 yards to the ORE38 (#17 J.Nestor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
95.2%
(01:38) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN47, for 20 yards to the MIN42 (#49 M.Kingsbury), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.2%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #11 J.McClellan thrown to MIN38 broken up by #97 J.Logan-ReddingSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+24
95.2%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #9 J.Johnson caught at MIN27, for 24 yards to the MIN18 (#17 J.Nestor; #6 M.Baranowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
95.3%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIN15 (#91 D.Eastern; #6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+12
95.3%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN07, for 12 yards to the MIN03 (#7 A.Gousby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.2%
(00:40) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN00, for 3 yards to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:37 #97 G.Hurych kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 0:322% → 2%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #86 J.Geers thrown to MIN30Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.3%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush left for 9 yards gain to the MIN34 (#44 T.Tuioti), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
97.9%
(00:25) Shotgun #86 J.Geers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIN35 (#54 J.Mixon; #32 N.Wyatt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.2%
(00:18) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
98.3%
(00:19) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Taylor thrown to MIN28Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
98.3%
(00:13) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Taylor thrown to MIN33 broken up by #44 T.TuiotiSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.4%
PENALTY MIN Delay Of Game (#42 T.Weston) 5 yards from MIN35 to MIN30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+9
98.4%
(00:09) #42 T.Weston punt 44 yards to the ORE26 #4 B.Finney return 9 yards to the ORE35, out of bounds at ORE35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.2%
(00:00) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ORE44 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 6:303% → 6%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
97.5%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #0 L.Brockington caught at MIN31, for 19 yards to the MIN39 (#7 I.Obidegwu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
97.4%
(14:10) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIN44 (#21 A.Flowers)Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-2
97.4%
(13:29) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MIN42 (#10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+14
97.6%
(12:44) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at MIN40, for 14 yards to the ORE44 (#22 J.Canady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
97.6%
(11:58) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ORE38 (#7 I.Obidegwu; #54 J.Mixon), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
97.6%
(11:15) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #17 L.Loya caught at ORE38, for 0 yards to the ORE38 (#4 B.Finney)Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+23
97.9%
(10:24) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 23 yards gain to the ORE15 (#7 I.Obidegwu; #22 J.Canady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
97.6%
(09:42) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #1 D.Taylor caught at ORE20, for 2 yards to the ORE13 (#28 B.Boettcher), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
97.6%
(09:04) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #0 L.Brockington caught at ORE13, for 3 yards to the ORE10 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
93.6%
(08:21) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #11 J.Tracy caught at ORE07, for 10 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17, 1ST DOWN #92 B.Denaburg kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #80 A.Soukup)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1796% → 99%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.5%
(08:15) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ORE30 (#9 D.Williams; #97 J.Logan-Redding)Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
95.5%
(07:36) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ORE36 (#9 D.Williams; #91 D.Eastern), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
95.6%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #23 D.Hill Jr caught at ORE32, for 4 yards to the ORE40 (#3 K.Perich)Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
95.8%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #6 N.Whittington caught at ORE35, for 2 yards to the ORE42 (#7 A.Gousby), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
95.7%
(05:54) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #4 M.Benson caught at MIN45, for 13 yards to the MIN45 (#3 K.Perich; #17 J.Nestor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
96.6%
(05:27) #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN35, for 18 yards to the MIN27 (#2 E.Karmo), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
96.8%
(04:53) #0 J.Davison rush middle for 3 yards loss to the MIN30 (#91 D.Eastern)Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 13
OPP 30
0
96.7%
(04:20) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete deep left to #9 J.Johnson thrown to MIN07Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+14
96.8%
(04:13) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN16, for 14 yards to the MIN16, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
96.8%
(03:26) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIN13 (#14 K.Brown)Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
99.2%
(02:53) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #11 J.McClellan caught at MIN00, for 13 yards to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:52, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 0 yds · 3:322% → 1%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #86 J.Geers thrown to MIN25 broken up by #54 J.Mixon QB hurried by #10 M.UiagaleleiSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.5%
(02:43) No Huddle #1 D.Taylor rush right for 7 yards gain to the MIN32 (#12 P.Woodyard; #31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
98.7%
(02:01) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIN34 (#77 J.Johnson; #12 P.Woodyard)Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
98.8%
(01:15) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIN36 (#22 J.Canady; #1 B.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-12
98.9%
(00:32) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #0 L.Brockington thrown to ORE50 QB hurried by #4 B.Finney PENALTY MIN Intentional Grounding (#5 D.Lindsey)Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 22
OWN 24
-9
99.0%
(00:26) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MIN15 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 31
OWN 15
+10
99.0%
(14:58) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #0 L.Brockington caught at MIN14, for 10 yards to the MIN25 (#1 B.Alexander; #28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 21
OWN 25
+9
99.0%
(14:21) #42 T.Weston punt 54 yards to the ORE21 #4 B.Finney return 9 yards to the ORE30 (#43 E.Stendel), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0199% → 100%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.3%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 5 yards gain to the ORE35 (#3 K.Perich), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
99.5%
(13:45) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ORE43 (#3 K.Perich; #14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
99.5%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #9 J.Johnson caught at ORE41, for 16 yards to the MIN41 (#13 M.Gerald; #14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
99.5%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #83 R.Saleapaga caught at MIN23, for 18 yards to the MIN23, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
99.6%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #11 J.McClellan caught at MIN19, for 8 yards to the MIN15 (#24 J.McMillan), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+3
99.9%
(11:39) Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIN12 fumbled by #5 D.Moore at MIN12, out of bounds at MIN12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
(11:10) #22 J.Harris rush right for 12 yards gain to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:09, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
(11:06) #7 F.Ijeboi rush left for 2 yards gain to the MIN27 (#7 I.Obidegwu; #23 B.Platt)Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
100.0%
(10:17) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #8 J.Smith caught at MIN24, for 4 yards to the MIN31 (#0 D.Austin)Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
100.0%
(09:37) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #8 J.Smith thrown to MIN40 QB hurried by #52 A.WashingtonSimilar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
100.0%
(09:31) #42 T.Weston punt 47 yards to the ORE22 fair catch by #4 B.Finney at ORE22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.9%
(09:24) #23 D.Hill Jr rush right for 1 yard gain to the ORE23 (#97 J.Logan-Redding)Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+4
99.9%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short left to #17 C.Perry caught at ORE27, for 4 yards to the ORE27 (#14 K.Brown)Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+14
99.9%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short left to #14 J.Lowe caught at ORE28, for 14 yards to the ORE41 (#24 J.McMillan), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIN Offside declinedSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
99.9%
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 3 yards loss to the ORE38 (#48 M.Carrier)Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short middle to #83 R.Saleapaga caught at ORE41, for 7 yards to the ORE45 (#46 L.Finnessy; #7 A.Gousby)Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE48 (#89 N.Becker)Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
99.9%
(06:32) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 42 yards to the MIN10 fair catch by #81 Q.Redding at MIN10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:340% → 0%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
100.0%
(06:25) #7 F.Ijeboi rush left for 8 yards gain to the MIN18, out of bounds at MIN18Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+3
100.0%
(05:53) Shotgun #23 C.Davis rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIN21 (#9 B.Purchase; #29 A.Porter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
(05:11) Shotgun #23 C.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIN23 (#24 Z.Grisham; #13 G.Nix)Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
100.0%
(04:25) #23 C.Davis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIN28 (#29 A.Porter; #9 B.Purchase)Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-2
100.0%
(03:41) Shotgun #6 M.Shikenjanski rush left for 2 yards loss to the MIN26 (#2 K.Lopa)Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
100.0%
(02:58) #42 T.Weston punt 39 yards to the ORE35Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
100.0%
#42 T.Weston punt 39 yards to the ORE35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · -1 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush right for 1 yard loss to the ORE34 (#48 M.Carrier)Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush middle for 0 yards to the ORE34 (#93 R.Sunram; #26 Z.Harden)Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+8
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ORE42 (#26 Z.Harden; #1 J.Howard)Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 9
OWN 35
-1
100.0%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush right for 1 yard loss to the ORE34 (#48 M.Carrier)Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
100.0%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush middle for 0 yards to the ORE34 (#93 R.Sunram; #26 Z.Harden)Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
100.0%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ORE42 (#26 Z.Harden; #1 J.Howard)Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
100.0%
(00:25) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 58 yards to the MIN00, TouchbackSimilar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
100.0%
#46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 58 yards to the MIN00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:160% → 0%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
#23 C.Davis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIN24 (#2 K.Lopa; #15 S.Davis)Similar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
(00:18) #23 C.Davis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIN24 (#2 K.Lopa; #15 S.Davis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:17
(08:21) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #11 J.Tracy caught at ORE07, for 10 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17, 1ST DOWN #92 B.Denaburg kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #80 A.Soukup)
-4
TD · Q2 0:37
(00:40) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at MIN00, for 3 yards to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:37 #97 G.Hurych kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)
+3.6
TD · Q3 2:52
(02:53) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #11 J.McClellan caught at MIN00, for 13 yards to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:52, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com