Try the model
PSU

Penn State 28 at Michigan State 10

MSU
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1MSU 43.0%#29 M.Connington field goal attemptfrom 24 yards GOOD (H: #96 R.Eckley,LS: #87 J.Wills), clock 08:40AWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q2 8:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:40 · #29 M.Connington field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills), clock 08:40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior−14.3Home team on offense+2.9Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:40: Timeout Michigan State, clock 08:40 — MSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:30: Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at PSU31, for 75 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) — PSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:32: Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at MSU07, for 4 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32 #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) — PSU win probability +18.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:15: Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU32 (#2 A.West; #23 D.Snow) — PSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:07: Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 26 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:07, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) — PSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:56PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:46PSU 4th & 2 at MSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:25MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:19PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:23MSU 4th & 3 at PSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:27PSU 4th & 1 at MSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−1.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:40MSU 4th & 6 at PSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:09MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:03PSU 4th & 1 at MSU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:52PSU 4th & 2 at MSU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:54MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:19MSU 4th & 7 at PSU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:15PSU 4th & 16 at PSU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−4.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:27MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:02PSU 4th & 3 at MSU 45, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−4.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:37MSU 4th & 24 at MSU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−6.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:14MSU 4th & 18 at MSU 28, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:46MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:50PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:30PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:07PSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0471% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.0%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 4 yards gain to the PSU29 (#14 M.Bell)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
29.0%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 2 yards gain to the PSU31 (#13 I.Smith)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
29.0%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush middle for 10 yards loss to the PSU21 fumbled by #17 E.Grunkemeyer at PSU26 recovered by PSU #17 E.Grunkemeyer at PSU24 (#14 M.Bell)Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
30.1%
#99 G.Nwosu punt 36 yards to the MSU43 fair catch by #1 O.Kelly at MSU43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
30.9%
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush right for 57 yards gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:46, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:5669% → 68%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.7%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short left to #13 K.Allen caught at PSU22, for 5 yards to the PSU30 (#5 J.Hall; #23 D.Snow)Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
30.6%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short right to #8 T.Pena caught at PSU35, for 7 yards to the PSU37 (#23 D.Snow), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
30.6%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PSU46 (#19 A.Smith)Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
30.5%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU46 (#44 C.Williams; #91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
30.5%
#13 K.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU47 (#14 M.Bell; #91 A.VanSumeren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
30.5%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU49 (#23 D.Snow)Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
30.5%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU46 (#88 R.Buckley)Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
30.5%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU45 (#93 J.Satchell; #10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+7
30.6%
#17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short right to #8 T.Pena caught at MSU45, for 7 yards to the MSU38 (#43 M.Spencer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
30.4%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #8 T.Pena caught at MSU19, for 25 yards to the MSU13 (#19 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
30.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU08 (#16 G.Kelly; #43 M.Spencer)Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
31.6%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:50, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) PENALTY #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) PENALTY PSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) PENALTY PSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsettingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2533% → 33%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.1%
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU27 (#24 A.Campbell; #50 A.Ford Jr.)Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
33.1%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #1 O.Kelly caught at MSU31, for 4 yards to the MSU31, out of bounds at MSU31Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
32.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU47 QB hurried by #0 D.DeLucaSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+19
33.3%
#96 R.Eckley punt 48 yards to the PSU21 #8 T.Pena return 19 yards to the PSU40 (#34 K.Majeed) PENALTY PSU Holding (#33 D.Dennis-Sutton) 10 yards from PSU21 to PSU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0667% → 65%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
33.5%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU14 (#91 A.VanSumeren; #99 Q.Dunnigan)Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
33.5%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short left to #10 N.Singleton thrown to PSU11 QB hurried by #93 J.SatchellSimilar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
33.9%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short left to #85 L.Reynolds thrown to PSU32 QB hurried by #99 Q.DunniganSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+8
34.8%
#99 G.Nwosu punt 39 yards to the MSU47 #1 O.Kelly return 8 yards to the PSU45 (#9 E.Washington II)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5636% → 36%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
35.8%
#5 M.Frazier rush left for 5 yards gain to the PSU40 (#0 D.DeLuca; #24 A.Campbell)Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
35.8%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU37 (#24 A.Campbell)Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-1
35.6%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard loss to the PSU38 (#16 K.Mack; #0 D.DeLuca)Similar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
36.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #13 C.McCray thrown to PSU40 broken up by #5 D.Dixson QB hurried by #33 D.Dennis-Sutton, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5666% → 65%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
34.1%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush right for 8 yards gain to the PSU46 (#10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
33.5%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU49 (#91 A.VanSumeren; #19 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
34.0%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 8 yards gain to the MSU43 (#99 Q.Dunnigan)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
33.4%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short left to #1 K.Hudson thrown to MSU25 broken up by #19 A.SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
33.6%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush right for 1 yard gain to the MSU42 (#99 Q.Dunnigan; #19 A.Smith)Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
35.1%
#10 N.Singleton rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU42 (#10 W.Matthews; #16 G.Kelly), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:4739% → 43%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
39.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU39, for 4 yards to the MSU46 (#50 A.Ford Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
39.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #6 N.Marsh caught at MSU49, for 3 yards to the MSU49 (#5 D.Dixson)Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+32
39.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at PSU32, for 32 yards to the PSU19 (#7 Z.Tracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
40.3%
#4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 11 yards gain to the PSU08 (#5 D.Dixson; #32 K.Wylie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
40.3%
#5 M.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard loss to the PSU09 (#32 K.Wylie; #5 D.Dixson)Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
40.3%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #81 M.Masunas caught at PSU04, for 5 yards to the PSU04 (#16 K.Mack)Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
42.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 2 yards to the PSU06 (#32 K.Wylie)Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
43.0%
#29 M.Connington field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills), clock 08:40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
34.0%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at PSU31, for 75 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2137% → 36%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.5%
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush left for 0 yards to the MSU25 (#39 T.Blanding; #36 Z.Fisher)Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
36.3%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU17, for 1 yard to the MSU26 (#2 A.Collins)Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
35.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #1 O.Kelly caught at MSU31, for 6 yards to the MSU32 (#9 E.Washington II)Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
35.7%
#96 R.Eckley punt 9 yards to the MSU41 blocked by #33 D.Dennis-SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 13 yds · 4:1769% → 61%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
31.0%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush left for 1 yard loss to the MSU42 (#10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+8
31.1%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU34 (#19 A.Smith)Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
30.9%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU32 (#13 I.Smith; #5 J.Hall)Similar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
33.6%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU30 (#43 M.Spencer; #16 G.Kelly), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
32.4%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short left to #13 K.Allen caught at MSU34, for 5 yards to the MSU25 (#23 D.Snow)Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
32.2%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short left to #10 N.Singleton thrown to MSU25Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+3
32.6%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU22 (#14 M.Bell; #43 M.Spencer)Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 2
OPP 22
-3
39.0%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MSU28 (#16 G.Kelly, #9 J.Thompson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:0641% → 41%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
41.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 16 yards gain to the MSU44 (#24 A.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
42.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU47, for 4 yards to the MSU48 (#24 A.Campbell)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
43.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to PSU40 QB hurried by #44 J.HarveySimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
42.8%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to PSU15Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
41.2%
#96 R.Eckley punt 41 yards to the PSU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
41.8%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short right to #8 T.Pena caught at PSU08, for 1 yard loss to the PSU10 (#9 J.Thompson; #34 K.Majeed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4136% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.8%
#1 O.Kelly rush right for 9 yards gain to the MSU34 (#0 D.DeLuca)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
37.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #81 M.Masunas caught at MSU41, for 14 yards to the MSU48 (#0 D.DeLuca), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
38.6%
#7 B.Tullis rush middle for 6 yards gain to the PSU46 (#7 Z.Tracy)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
39.3%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to PSU10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-3
38.7%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 3 yards loss to the PSU49 (#6 Z.Wheatley)Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
35.8%
#96 R.Eckley punt 40 yards to the PSU09 fair catch by #8 T.Pena at PSU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:0465% → 62%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
34.7%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU13 (#91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+7
34.5%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the PSU20 (#91 A.VanSumeren; #10 W.Matthews), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
34.2%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 0 yards to the PSU20 (#9 J.Thompson)Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
34.5%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short middle to #85 L.Reynolds thrown to PSU25 broken up by #10 W.MatthewsSimilar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-3
35.8%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer sacked for loss of 6 yards to the PSU14 (#93 J.Satchell, #41 D.Santiago)Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+4
37.6%
#99 G.Nwosu punt 68 yards to the MSU18 #1 O.Kelly return 4 yards to the MSU22 (#9 E.Washington II)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4837% → 35%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
36.6%
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU25 (#24 A.Campbell)Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
36.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU30 QB hurried by #6 Z.WheatleySimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
35.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU40Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
34.7%
#96 R.Eckley punt 58 yards to the PSU17 #8 T.Pena return 0 yards to the PSU17 (#30 A.Grose)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 4:2565% → 70%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
34.9%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU22, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+12
33.9%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 12 yards gain to the PSU34 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
33.3%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush left for 14 yards gain to the PSU48 (#14 M.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
31.7%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU47 (#88 R.Buckley)Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+1
31.3%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU46 (#93 J.Satchell)Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+1
31.5%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU45 (#9 J.Thompson; #10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
29.7%
#99 G.Nwosu punt 41 yards to the MSU04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 5:2533% → 30%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
32.5%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU13 (#16 K.Mack; #6 Z.Wheatley)Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+4
33.4%
#5 M.Frazier rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU17 (#24 A.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
33.7%
#5 M.Frazier rush left for 11 yards gain to the MSU28 (#32 K.Wylie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
34.2%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #6 N.Marsh caught at MSU27, for 2 yards to the MSU30 (#2 A.Collins), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+10
34.1%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #81 M.Masunas caught at MSU40, for 10 yards to the MSU40 (#10 D.Lane), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
36.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 7 yards to the MSU33 (#33 D.Dennis-Sutton)Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+5
33.4%
PENALTY MSU Illegal Snap (#51 M.Gulbin) 5 yards from MSU33 to MSU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 28
-8
32.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MSU20 (#33 D.Dennis-Sutton)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 30
OWN 20
+6
30.8%
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU26 (#54 X.Gilliam)Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 24
OWN 26
+5
29.9%
#96 R.Eckley punt 55 yards to the PSU19 #8 T.Pena return 5 yards to the PSU24 (#20 K.Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 9:0570% → 94%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
29.8%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PSU33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+2
28.2%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU35 (#5 J.Hall; #91 A.VanSumeren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
28.6%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush right for 6 yards gain to the PSU41 (#10 W.Matthews; #91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
27.3%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU45 (#99 Q.Dunnigan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
27.0%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MSU43 (#43 M.Spencer; #14 M.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
25.7%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU39 (#13 I.Smith; #16 G.Kelly)Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+6
25.5%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 6 yards gain to the MSU33 (#23 D.Snow), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
25.1%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush right for 8 yards gain to the MSU25 (#14 M.Bell)Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+6
24.9%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU19 (#10 W.Matthews), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
24.8%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush right for 10 yards gain to the MSU09, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
24.8%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU05 (#93 J.Satchell)Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
24.8%
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU04 (#13 I.Smith; #16 G.Kelly)Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.2%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at MSU07, for 4 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32 #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:176% → 6%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
6.0%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU22, for 16 yards to the MSU41 (#6 Z.Wheatley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
7.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU43, for 4 yards to the MSU45 (#24 A.Campbell)Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
7.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #1 O.Kelly caught at MSU50, for 5 yards to the MSU50 (#5 D.Dixson; #16 K.Mack)Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 1
50
+15
7.3%
PENALTY PSU Roughing The Passer (#36 Z.Fisher) 15 yards from MSU50 to PSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-45
9.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep left to #13 C.McCray thrown to PSU07, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY PSU Roughing The Passer (#33 D.Dennis-Sutton) 15 yards from PSU35 to PSU20, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
5.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 10 yards to the PSU30 (#7 Z.Tracy), fumble by #11 A.Milivojevic recovered by PSU #5 D.Dixson at PSU30, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:0896% → 99%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
4.4%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU32 (#2 A.West; #23 D.Snow)Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+42
4.4%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 42 yards gain to the MSU26 (#14 M.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
0.7%
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 26 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:07, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · -6 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.8%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU31, for 6 yards to the MSU31 (#16 K.Mack)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
0.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU24, for 5 yards to the MSU36 (#2 A.Collins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #1 O.Kelly thrown to MSU46 QB hurried by #32 K.WylieSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
0.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU38, for 7 yards to the MSU43 (#5 D.Dixson)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
0.6%
PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#4 E.Tau-Tolliver) 15 yards from MSU43 to MSU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
0.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #8 E.Boyd thrown to MSU45 broken up by #9 E.Washington II QB hurried by #45 E.WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 18
OWN 28
-5
0.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MSU19 (#24 A.Campbell, #16 K.Mack), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
0.5%
Kneel down by Penn St. at MSU21 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-1
0.5%
Kneel down by Penn St. at MSU22 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:32
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at MSU07, for 4 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32 #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)
-18.7
TD · Q2 8:30
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at PSU31, for 75 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)
-10.4
TD · Q4 2:07
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 26 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:07, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com