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WASH

Washington 10 at Wisconsin 13

WIS
2025 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-1.4WIS 32.3%(09:33) #95 G.Gross field goal attemptfrom 42 yards GOOD (H: #45 L.Dunne,LS: #33 R.Kean), clock 09:33AWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q2 9:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:33 · (09:33) #95 G.Gross field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #45 L.Dunne, LS: #33 R.Kean), clock 09:33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Pregame prior−20.5Home team on offense−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score differential−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:44: (07:48) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #12 D.Boston caught at WIS00, for 1 yard to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:44 #95 G.Gross kick attempt good (H: #45 L.Dunne, LS: #33 R.Kean) — WASH win probability +6.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:26: (06:29) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 2 yards gain to the WAS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:26 #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy) — WIS win probability +18.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:18: (10:42) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short middle to #34 J.Acker caught at WIS37, for 8 yards to the WIS45 (#92 B.Butler) — WIS win probability +8.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:53: (03:03) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #81 D.Roebuck caught at WAS20, for 11 yards to the WAS24 (#44 C.Catalano; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWN — WASH win probability +10.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:08: Timeout Wisconsin, clock 01:08 — WIS win probability +14.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 12WASH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:51WASH 4th & 2 at WIS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26WIS 4th & 6 at WASH 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:37WASH 4th & 9 at WASH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:57WIS 4th & 2 at WASH 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:37WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54WIS 4th & 1 at WASH 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:39WIS 4th & 6 at WASH 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:33WASH 4th & 15 at WIS 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:18WIS 4th & 18 at WIS 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:19WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:43WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:52WASH 4th & 17 at WASH 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−3.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:45WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 35, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:17WIS 4th & 20 at WIS 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−3.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:41WASH 4th & 27 at WASH 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−6.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:58WIS 4th & 6 at WASH 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−11.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:05WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.5%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:43WASH 4th & 5 at WIS 32, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−3.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:02WIS 4th & 11 at WASH 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:45WASH 4th & 3 at WASH 24, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%−1.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:03WIS 4th & 5 at WASH 45, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−5.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−2.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:13WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−5.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:44WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:26WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WASHDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:5678% → 77%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
21.8%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #12 D.Boston caught at WAS32, for 7 yards to the WAS32 (#29 M.Jung)Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
22.0%
(14:28) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the WAS35, out of bounds at WAS35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
22.2%
(14:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short middle to #12 D.Boston caught at WAS45, for 18 yards to the WIS47 (#5 D.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
22.2%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete short right to #81 D.Roebuck thrown to WIS40Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
22.3%
(13:49) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #12 D.Boston caught at WIS49, for 8 yards to the WIS39 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
22.4%
(13:28) Shotgun #1 J.Coleman rush middle for 0 yards to the WIS39 (#29 M.Jung)Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+1
22.7%
(12:56) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #12 D.Boston caught at WIS38, for 1 yard to the WIS38, out of bounds at WIS38, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2123% → 25%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
22.9%
(12:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS42 (#5 Z.Durfee; #90 E.Davis)Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+9
23.4%
(12:20) Shotgun #18 D.O'Neil rush middle for 9 yards gain to the WAS49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
23.8%
(11:40) Shotgun #18 D.O'Neil pass incomplete deep right to #85 G.Stec thrown to WAS26Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
23.7%
(11:35) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush right for 14 yards gain to the WAS35 (#2 R.Clark; #10 X.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
24.4%
(10:52) Shotgun #34 J.Acker rush right for 4 yards gain to the WAS31 (#54 A.Thompson; #10 X.Alexander)Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
24.9%
(10:14) Shotgun #18 D.O'Neil rush middle for 0 yards to the WAS31 (#54 A.Thompson)Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
25.0%
(09:34) Shotgun #18 D.O'Neil pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Kekahuna thrown to WAS32 QB hurried by #23 Z.Rainey-SaleSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
24.8%
(09:26) #90 N.Vakos field goal attempt from 48 yards NO GOOD (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy), clock 09:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4576% → 74%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
24.4%
(09:26) #1 J.Coleman rush right for 3 yards gain to the WAS35 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-1
24.5%
(08:55) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush left for 1 yard loss to the WAS34 (#44 C.Catalano; #92 C.Walker)Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-1
25.1%
(08:22) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. sacked for loss of 1 yard to the WAS33 (#8 M.Posa, #22 M.Reiger)Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+8
25.6%
(07:47) #45 L.Dunne punt 38 yards to the WIS29 #3 T.Henry return 8 yards to the WIS37 (#12 A.McLaughlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:2826% → 28%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
25.7%
(07:37) Shotgun #18 D.O'Neil rush left for 21 yards gain to the WAS42 (#18 R.Dillard-Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
26.3%
(07:14) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 9 yards gain to the WAS33 (#24 M.Esteen), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+5
26.9%
(06:39) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush left for 5 yards gain to the WAS28 (#12 A.McLaughlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
27.3%
(05:58) Shotgun #34 J.Acker rush right for 4 yards gain to the WAS24 (#12 A.McLaughlin; #10 X.Alexander)Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+10
27.7%
(05:19) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete short right to #86 L.Mason thrown to WAS09 PENALTY WAS Holding (#7 E.Prysock) 10 yards from WAS24 to WAS14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
27.8%
(05:15) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WAS12 (#48 J.Lane)Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
28.3%
(04:29) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WAS09 (#90 E.Davis; #11 T.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+3
28.4%
(03:45) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush right for 3 yards gain to the WAS06 (#5 Z.Durfee)Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+1
28.2%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WAS05 (#90 E.Davis), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1772% → 71%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
27.8%
(02:57) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete short right to #12 D.Boston thrown to WAS10Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-3
27.9%
(02:53) Shotgun #1 J.Coleman rush middle for 3 yards loss to the WAS02 (#5 D.Hill)Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+8
28.3%
(02:16) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #1 J.Coleman caught at WAS04, for 8 yards to the WAS10 (#1 G.Latimer; #44 C.Catalano), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+10
28.8%
(01:46) #45 L.Dunne punt 43 yards to the WIS47 #3 T.Henry return 10 yards to the WAS43 (#44 H.Moore)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6FG
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:5130% → 32%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
30.1%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 2 yards loss to the WAS45 (#24 M.Esteen)Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+9
29.9%
(01:02) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 9 yards gain to the WAS36 (#10 X.Alexander)Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
30.5%
(00:20) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush left for 2 yards gain to the WAS34 (#5 Z.Durfee; #8 T.Davis)Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+5
30.3%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WAS29 (#18 R.Dillard-Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
31.9%
(14:22) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete deep right to #14 D.Crowdus thrown to WAS04Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
31.9%
(14:16) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 4 yards gain to the WAS25 (#23 Z.Rainey-Sale)Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
31.7%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete deep right to #10 G.Ituka thrown to WAS05Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
31.8%
(13:44) #90 N.Vakos field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy), clock 13:39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 4:0168% → 68%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.6%
(13:39) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the WAS25 (#19 T.Heiberger; #44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
(13:04) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #5 O.Evans thrown to WAS50Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+36
33.0%
(12:58) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush middle for 36 yards gain to the WIS39 (#1 G.Latimer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
30.8%
(12:15) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush left for 1 yard loss to the WIS40 (#15 S.Cheeks)Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+6
31.3%
(11:39) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short middle to #7 R.Vines-Bright caught at WIS34, for 6 yards to the WIS34 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+5
31.6%
(11:05) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the WIS29 (#2 R.Hallman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
30.9%
(10:32) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #12 D.Boston caught at WIS19, for 11 yards to the WIS18 (#5 D.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
30.9%
(09:57) #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete short right to #8 C.Lawson thrown to WIS03Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
31.2%
PENALTY WAS False Start (#86 D.DeGraaf) 5 yards from WIS18 to WIS23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
32.4%
(09:49) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete short left to #12 D.Boston thrown to WIS04Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 15
OPP 23
0
33.6%
(09:45) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #7 R.Vines-Bright thrown to WIS00 QB hurried by #31 J.SuggsSimilar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+42
32.3%
(09:33) #95 G.Gross field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #45 L.Dunne, LS: #33 R.Kean), clock 09:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1033% → 32%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.2%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 1 yard gain to the WIS26, out of bounds at WIS26Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
33.4%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete short left to #8 V.Anthony II thrown to WIS26 broken up by #41 D.LynchSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
32.5%
(09:00) Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 9 yards to the WIS17 (#48 J.Lane)Similar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
32.3%
(08:18) #91 S.West punt 0 yards to the WIS17 blocked by #57 A.Ward recovered by WIS #91 S.West at WIS01, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2772% → 78%
Q2 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
28.5%
(08:13) Shotgun #1 J.Coleman rush middle for 0 yards to the WIS01 (#68 B.Barten)Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.5%
(07:48) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #12 D.Boston caught at WIS00, for 1 yard to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:44 #95 G.Gross kick attempt good (H: #45 L.Dunne, LS: #33 R.Kean)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1425% → 24%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
24.5%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WIS29 (#17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
24.9%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 0 yards to the WIS29 (#11 T.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
24.3%
(06:33) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete short right to #86 L.Mason thrown to WIS30Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+1
23.7%
(06:26) #91 S.West punt 43 yards to the WAS28 #12 D.Boston return 1 yard to the WAS29 (#2 T.Kekahuna)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11INT
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:1576% → 77%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
24.2%
(06:18) #2 D.Williams Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the WAS35, out of bounds at WAS35Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
23.8%
(05:35) Shotgun #1 J.Coleman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WAS37 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+16
23.7%
(05:03) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #88 Q.Moore caught at WAS38, for 16 yards to the WIS47 (#9 A.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
23.1%
(04:39) #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 J.Coleman caught at WIS45, for 11 yards to the WIS36 (#8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
23.0%
(04:00) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass intercepted by #2 R.Hallman at WIS00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:0625% → 25%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
24.9%
(03:52) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WIS26 (#10 X.Alexander; #23 Z.Rainey-Sale)Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
25.3%
PENALTY WIS False Start (#71 R.Mahlman) 5 yards from WIS26 to WIS21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
25.0%
(03:01) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 9 yards gain to the WIS30 (#12 A.McLaughlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
26.5%
(02:25) Shotgun #34 J.Acker rush left for 3 yards loss to the WIS27 (#41 D.Lynch)Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+8
26.0%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WIS35 (#24 M.Esteen)Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
25.5%
(02:00) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete short right to #86 L.Mason thrown to WIS38 broken up by #12 A.McLaughlinSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+12
25.3%
(01:55) #91 S.West punt 54 yards to the WAS11 #2 R.Clark return 12 yards to the WAS23 (#34 J.Acker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:4776% → 74%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
23.7%
(01:43) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WAS31 (#22 M.Reiger; #8 M.Posa) PENALTY WAS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#50 C.Willis) 15 yards from WAS31 to WAS16Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 17
OWN 16
0
24.8%
(01:17) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the WAS16 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 17
OWN 16
0
25.0%
(01:10) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete short middle thrown to WAS16 broken up by #22 M.Reiger QB hurried by #31 J.SuggsSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
25.6%
(00:57) #45 L.Dunne punt 32 yards to the WAS48 blocked by #7 T.Fearbry, out of bounds at WAS48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:4128% → 26%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
28.2%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short left to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at WAS47, for 4 yards to the WAS44 (#7 E.Prysock)Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
28.4%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush left for 1 yard gain to the WAS43 (#10 X.Alexander)Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+12
28.1%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short right to #1 C.Brooks Jr. caught at WAS39, for 12 yards to the WAS31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
29.9%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short right to #1 C.Brooks Jr. thrown to WAS24 PENALTY WIS Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from WAS31 to WAS36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+15
27.3%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short right to #8 V.Anthony II thrown to WAS34 PENALTY WIS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#10 G.Ituka) 15 yards from WAS36 to WIS49Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 30
OWN 49
+5
25.9%
(00:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush right for 5 yards gain to the WAS46 (#10 X.Alexander)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 5:3826% → 25%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.6%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush right for 5 yards gain to the WIS30 (#10 X.Alexander)Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
26.2%
(14:25) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete short left to #8 V.Anthony II thrown to WIS35 broken up by #17 D.BryantSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
25.3%
(14:18) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short right to #86 L.Mason caught at WIS33, for 5 yards to the WIS35 (#8 T.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
26.2%
(13:34) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WIS36 (#54 A.Thompson)Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
26.1%
(12:56) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete short middle to #86 L.Mason thrown to WIS42Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-1
25.2%
(12:54) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush left for 1 yard loss to the WIS35 (#2 R.Clark)Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+24
24.2%
(12:14) #91 S.West pass complete short middle to #34 J.Acker caught at WIS45, for 24 yards to the WAS41 (#18 R.Dillard-Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
28.9%
(11:28) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WAS39 (#5 Z.Durfee; #92 B.Butler)Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-5
29.1%
(10:51) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short left to #34 J.Acker caught at WAS44, for 5 yards loss to the WAS44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-7
26.9%
(10:10) Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 7 yards to the WIS49 (#5 Z.Durfee), fumble by #5 C.Smith recovered by WIS #10 G.Ituka at WIS49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 20
OWN 49
+5
25.0%
(09:25) #91 S.West punt 40 yards to the WAS11 #81 D.Roebuck return 5 yards to the WAS16 (#43 G.Bortolotti) PENALTY WAS Illegal Block in Back (#44 H.Moore) 8 yards from WAS16 to WAS08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:0675% → 75%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
25.2%
(09:17) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #12 D.Boston caught at WAS08, for 9 yards to the WAS17 (#29 M.Jung), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+4
24.4%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short middle to #81 D.Roebuck caught at WAS16, for 4 yards to the WAS21 (#2 R.Hallman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
24.9%
(08:24) #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete short right to #88 Q.Moore thrown to WAS21Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
24.3%
(08:20) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #24 A.Mohammed caught at WAS24, for 3 yards to the WAS24 QB hurried by #22 M.Reiger (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+5
24.8%
(07:36) PENALTY WAS False Start (#86 D.DeGraaf) 5 yards from WAS24 to WAS19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
25.2%
(07:15) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. sacked for loss of 12 yards to the WAS07 (#8 M.Posa), fumble by #2 D.Williams Jr. recovered by WIS #8 M.Posa at WAS07, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2532% → 50%
Q3 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
31.5%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WAS02 (#41 D.Lynch)Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.6%
(06:29) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 2 yards gain to the WAS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:26 #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 1:0358% → 55%
Q3 5:44
2ND & 26
OWN 9
+6
42.2%
(05:49) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the WAS15, out of bounds at WAS15Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
43.1%
PENALTY WAS False Start (#68 S.Faasolo) 5 yards from WAS15 to WAS10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+5
43.3%
PENALTY WAS False Start (#58 Z.Henning) 5 yards from WAS10 to WAS05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 30
OWN 5
+3
43.8%
(05:18) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush left for 3 yards gain to the WAS08 (#22 M.Reiger)Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 27
OWN 8
+12
45.0%
(04:50) #45 L.Dunne punt 40 yards to the WAS48 #3 T.Henry return 12 yards to the WAS36 (#12 A.McLaughlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3850% → 55%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
49.6%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WAS34 (#10 X.Alexander)Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+16
51.3%
(04:06) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 16 yards gain to the WAS18 (#11 T.Uiagalelei), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
51.9%
(03:18) Shotgun #2 T.Kekahuna rush right for 4 yards gain to the WAS14, out of bounds at WAS14Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
52.3%
(02:46) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete short right to #85 G.Stec thrown to WAS05Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
50.6%
(02:41) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush left for 0 yards to the WAS14 (#90 E.Davis)Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
55.3%
(01:58) #90 N.Vakos field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy), clock 01:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20MISSED FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 5:5744% → 42%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
55.6%
(01:48) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WAS12 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+18
55.5%
(01:27) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush left for 18 yards gain to the WAS30 (#8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
54.9%
(00:50) #24 A.Mohammed rush left for 6 yards gain to the WAS36 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
52.6%
(00:18) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #81 D.Roebuck caught at WAS35, for 5 yards to the WAS41 (#2 R.Hallman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
53.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the WAS44 (#92 C.Walker)Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
53.6%
(14:24) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WAS50 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 1
50
-1
53.4%
(13:51) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WAS49 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+2
56.4%
(13:12) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
53.9%
(12:41) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #81 D.Roebuck caught at WIS42, for 7 yards to the WIS42 (#5 D.Hill)Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
53.7%
(12:05) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush right for 5 yards gain to the WIS37 (#44 C.Catalano), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
54.7%
(11:39) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete short right to #86 D.DeGraaf thrown to WIS37Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
54.8%
(11:35) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short left to #8 C.Lawson caught at WIS40, for 3 yards to the WIS34 (#2 R.Hallman), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+2
55.5%
(11:10) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS32 (#8 M.Posa; #22 M.Reiger). #8 M.Posa injured on the playSimilar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
58.4%
(10:53) #95 G.Gross field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD blocked by #68 B.Barten (H: #45 L.Dunne, LS: #33 R.Kean), clock 10:43 recovered by WAS #88 Q.Moore at WIS37, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1667% → 66%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
67.0%
(10:42) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass complete short middle to #34 J.Acker caught at WIS37, for 8 yards to the WIS45 (#92 B.Butler)Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+9
69.6%
(09:51) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush right for 9 yards gain to the WAS46 (#17 D.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
71.2%
(09:28) Shotgun Wisconsin rush middle for 3 yards loss to the WAS49 fumbled by Wisconsin at WAS49 recovered by WIS #8 V.Anthony II at WAS49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
68.9%
(08:48) Shotgun #5 C.Smith pass incomplete short middle to #8 V.Anthony II thrown to WAS40Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+2
67.1%
(08:46) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WAS47 (#8 T.Davis)Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
65.8%
(08:10) #49 A.Bertrams punt 43 yards to the WAS04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1336% → 31%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
63.8%
(08:02) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete short right to #81 D.Roebuck thrown to WAS10Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+6
64.3%
(07:58) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WAS10 (#44 C.Catalano; #29 M.Jung)Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+7
64.9%
(07:23) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #12 D.Boston caught at WAS13, for 7 yards to the WAS17, out of bounds at WAS17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
63.9%
(06:44) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the WAS23 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
63.8%
(06:07) #24 A.Mohammed rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WAS24 (#44 C.Catalano; #8 M.Posa)Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
66.3%
(05:25) #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #81 D.Roebuck caught at WAS23, for 0 yards to the WAS24 (#6 O.Agard; #44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
69.0%
(04:46) #45 L.Dunne punt 26 yards to the WAS50, out of bounds at WIS50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3577% → 81%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
50
+4
76.6%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush right for 4 yards gain to the WAS46 (#12 A.McLaughlin; #7 E.Prysock)Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
81.2%
(04:03) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WAS43 (#95 A.Parker)Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-2
81.4%
(03:19) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 2 yards loss to the WAS45 (#10 X.Alexander)Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
80.5%
(03:14) #49 A.Bertrams punt 32 yards to the WAS13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 1:4030% → 24%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
69.8%
(03:03) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #81 D.Roebuck caught at WAS20, for 11 yards to the WAS24 (#44 C.Catalano; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
71.7%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WAS27, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
71.9%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WAS33 (#17 D.Peterson)Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
71.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #24 A.Mohammed rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WAS37 (#8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
71.5%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #24 A.Mohammed caught at WAS34, for 2 yards loss to the WAS35 (#5 D.Hill)Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+6
76.4%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WAS41 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
73.0%
(01:20) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #12 D.Boston thrown to WIS20 broken up by #8 M.PosaSimilar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 6
OWN 41
-1
76.0%
(01:13) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. sacked for loss of 1 yard to the WAS40 (#8 M.Posa), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:2793% → 95%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
92.6%
(01:04) Kneel down by #5 C.Smith at WAS44 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 14
OPP 44
-1
94.6%
(00:34) Kneel down by #5 C.Smith at WAS45 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:26
(06:29) Shotgun #5 C.Smith rush left for 2 yards gain to the WAS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:26 #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)
+18.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:08
Timeout Wisconsin, clock 01:08
+14
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:53
(03:03) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete short right to #81 D.Roebuck caught at WAS20, for 11 yards to the WAS24 (#44 C.Catalano; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWN
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com