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ORE

Oregon 18 at Iowa 16

IOWA
2025 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDFGFGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:56 · (13:03) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 52 yards to the IOWA00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior−14.5Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:43: (05:45) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at OREGON03, for 3 yards to the OREGON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:43 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell) — IOWA win probability +11.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Atticus Sappington 46 Yd Field Goal — ORE win probability +12.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:39: (12:43) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 58 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 12:39 — IOWA win probability +10.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 1:51: Mark Gronowski 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — IOWA win probability +42.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:03: Atticus Sappington 39 Yd Field Goal — ORE win probability +60.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:18IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:56ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:46IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:55IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.1%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:08ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:43IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:32ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:44ORE 4th & 8 at IOWA 22, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−11.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:39IOWA 4th & 5 at ORE 40, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%−1.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:36ORE 4th & 12 at IOWA 37, up 5
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:33IOWA 4th & 3 at ORE 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−4.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−6.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:51IOWA 4th & 3 at ORE 3, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−15.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−27.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:03ORE 4th & 4 at IOWA 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−35.8
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−47.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:46ORE Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:43IOWA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:51IOWA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    69.2%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3135% → 36%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
35.1%
(14:53) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA22 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
35.4%
(14:16) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #21 K.Wetjen caught at IOWA16, for 3 yards to the IOWA25 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
35.6%
(13:29) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Gill thrown to IOWA35Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
35.6%
(13:25) #9 R.Dakin punt 27 yards to the OREGON48, out of bounds at OREGON48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1864% → 64%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
35.6%
(13:16) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #11 J.McClellan thrown to OREGON50Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
35.6%
(13:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Whittington thrown to IOWA46Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
35.7%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short middle to #4 M.Benson thrown to IOWA35Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
35.9%
(13:03) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 52 yards to the IOWA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3SF
6 plays · -20 yds · 2:5536% → 37%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
35.9%
(12:56) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA24 (#54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
36.3%
(12:12) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the IOWA31 (#54 J.Mixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
36.6%
(11:25) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA36 (#31 D.Thieneman; #28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
37.1%
(10:47) #28 K.Moulton rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA39 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
37.3%
(10:05) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Gill thrown to IOWA42Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 2
OWN 39
-39
36.6%
(09:55) Iowa rush middle for 39 yards loss to the IOWA00, End Of Play. Oregon SAFETY, clock 09:55 PENALTY IOWA Illegal Bat (#9 R.Dakin) -1 yard from IOWA00 to IOWA20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4INT
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:2963% → 62%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
36.6%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush right for 9 yards gain to the OREGON42 (#4 K.Entringer)Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
36.4%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush left for 2 yards gain to the OREGON44 (#49 E.Hurkett; #48 M.Llewellyn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
36.5%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OREGON50 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #12 J.Rexroth)Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 4
50
+8
36.5%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 8 yards gain to the IOWA42 (#4 K.Entringer; #43 K.Sharar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
36.5%
(07:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA40 (#4 K.Entringer; #48 M.Llewellyn)Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+22
36.7%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #2 G.Bryant Jr. caught at IOWA21, for 22 yards to the IOWA18 (#8 D.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
36.5%
(06:54) Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush right for 1 yard loss to the IOWA19 fumbled by #5 D.Moore at IOWA19 recovered by OREGON #5 D.Moore at IOWA19, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+1
36.7%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush right for 1 yard gain to the IOWA18 (#95 A.Graves; #43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+5
37.1%
PENALTY OREGON False Start (#78 G.Wilson) 5 yards from IOWA18 to IOWA23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 15
OPP 23
0
37.6%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass intercepted by #8 D.Lee at IOWA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 4:2638% → 39%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.9%
(05:15) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #28 K.Moulton thrown to IOWA21Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
37.9%
(05:11) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA23 (#28 B.Boettcher; #54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
37.6%
(04:30) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 8 yards gain to the IOWA31 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
38.5%
(03:47) #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA36 (#54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
39.5%
(03:05) #4 J.Patterson rush right for 5 yards gain to the IOWA41 (#31 D.Thieneman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
40.1%
(02:23) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 4 yards gain to the IOWA45 (#99 T.Green)Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-8
40.5%
(01:44) #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 8 yards to the IOWA37 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
38.9%
(01:01) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete deep left to #5 J.Gill thrown to OREGON40 QB hurried by #29 A.PorterSimilar
Q1 0:46
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
38.6%
(00:48) #9 R.Dakin punt 45 yards to the OREGON18 fair catch by #4 M.Benson at OREGON18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:5261% → 67%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
38.8%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OREGON25 (#2 T.Hall)Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+3
38.6%
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OREGON28 (#36 J.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
38.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush left for 6 yards gain to the OREGON34 (#12 J.Rexroth)Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
38.4%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OREGON38 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #36 J.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
38.5%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #9 J.Johnson caught at OREGON36, for 3 yards to the OREGON41 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+21
38.5%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #9 J.Johnson caught at IOWA44, for 21 yards to the IOWA38 (#1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
38.1%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 19 yards gain to the IOWA19 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
32.6%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 19 yards gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:46, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:5533% → 46%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.1%
(11:45) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA30 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
33.4%
(11:04) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 8 yards gain to the IOWA38 (#54 J.Mixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
33.7%
(10:19) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA39 (#44 T.Tuioti; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
33.4%
(09:38) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA44 (#54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
33.3%
(08:58) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
33.6%
(08:08) #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA48 (#99 T.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
34.5%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA50 (#21 A.Flowers; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 8
50
+9
34.8%
(06:56) Shotgun #21 K.Wetjen rush left for 9 yards gain to the OREGON41 (#54 J.Mixon), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
33.8%
(06:30) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep left to #5 J.Gill caught at OREGON14, for 38 yards to the OREGON03 (#28 B.Boettcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.7%
(05:45) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at OREGON03, for 3 yards to the OREGON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:43 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:3460% → 58%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
40.0%
(05:42) No Huddle #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #11 J.McClellan thrown to OREGON39 PENALTY OREGON Pass Interference (#11 J.McClellan) 12 yards from OREGON25 to OREGON13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+7
40.4%
(05:07) No Huddle #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OREGON20 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
40.7%
(04:39) No Huddle #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #9 J.Johnson caught at OREGON20, for 3 yards to the OREGON23 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
41.7%
(04:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #9 J.Johnson caught at OREGON22, for 9 yards to the OREGON32 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
41.9%
(03:16) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 41 yards to the IOWA27, out of bounds at IOWA27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:1842% → 41%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
41.9%
(03:07) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 2 yards loss to the IOWA25 (#54 J.Mixon; #10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+17
41.4%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #88 H.Large caught at IOWA28, for 17 yards to the IOWA42 (#44 T.Tuioti), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
44.1%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete deep left to #2 S.Phillips thrown to OREGON33Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
42.7%
(02:10) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA46 (#9 B.Purchase; #31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-8
43.1%
(02:00) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 8 yards to the IOWA38 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 14
OWN 38
+6
41.3%
(01:51) #9 R.Dakin punt 48 yards to the OREGON14 #4 M.Benson return 6 yards to the OREGON20 (#4 K.Entringer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 1:3859% → 74%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
41.4%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 11 yards gain to the OREGON31 (#36 J.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
41.1%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 27 yards gain to the IOWA42 (#43 K.Sharar; #6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
37.3%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA39 (#43 K.Sharar; #2 T.Hall)Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
37.1%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #6 N.Whittington caught at IOWA35, for 4 yards to the IOWA35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
37.1%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA31 (#4 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
36.2%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #14 J.Lowe caught at IOWA28, for 3 yards to the IOWA28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
35.7%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #6 N.Whittington caught at IOWA30, for 0 yards to the IOWA28 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+46
26.0%
Atticus Sappington 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2266% → 65%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
33.9%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 2 yards loss to the OREGON23 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
34.1%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush left for 6 yards gain to the OREGON29 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
34.1%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short middle to #11 J.McClellan thrown to OREGON35 broken up by #48 M.LlewellynSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
35.4%
(13:38) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 38 yards to the IOWA33 fair catch by #21 K.Wetjen at IOWA33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12FUMBLE
12 plays · 54 yds · 6:0836% → 41%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
36.0%
(13:31) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IOWA39 (#50 T.Gray)Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
37.7%
(12:46) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA42 (#54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
37.3%
(12:04) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA44 (#52 A.Washington; #10 M.Uiagalelei), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
37.7%
(11:23) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#5 T.Johnson)Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
38.3%
(10:43) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush left for 6 yards gain to the OREGON47 (#44 T.Tuioti; #31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
38.5%
(10:03) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OREGON46 (#54 J.Mixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
39.2%
(09:16) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #28 K.Moulton caught at OREGON48, for 1 yard loss to the OREGON47 (#4 B.Finney)Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+3
38.7%
(08:44) #26 X.Williams rush right for 3 yards gain to the OREGON44 (#77 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+12
38.4%
(08:01) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #2 S.Phillips caught at OREGON32, for 12 yards to the OREGON32, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OREGON Personal Foul (#42 A.Breland) 15 yards from OREGON32 to OREGON17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
40.9%
(07:42) #26 X.Williams rush left for 1 yard gain to the OREGON16 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
41.0%
(07:15) #21 K.Wetjen rush left for 2 yards gain to the OREGON14 (#4 B.Finney)Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
41.0%
(07:15) #21 K.Wetjen rush left for 3 yards gain to the OREGON13 fumbled by #21 K.Wetjen at OREGON14 forced by #4 B.Finney recovered by OREGON #1 B.Alexander at OREGON13, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:5367% → 78%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
33.4%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush left for 2 yards gain to the OREGON15 (#48 M.Llewellyn)Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+49
33.5%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush left for 49 yards gain to the IOWA36 (#6 Z.Lutmer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
29.7%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA31 (#4 K.Entringer; #2 T.Hall)Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
27.8%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA28 (#95 A.Graves; #48 M.Llewellyn)Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+4
29.1%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA24 (#91 J.Pace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
27.5%
(02:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA23 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+7
27.4%
(02:12) No Huddle #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 7 yards gain to the IOWA16 (#4 K.Entringer; #49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-6
27.4%
(01:32) No Huddle #5 D.Moore rush middle for 6 yards loss to the IOWA22, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
21.9%
(00:46) #36 A.Sappington field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso), clock 00:44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:0024% → 36%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.0%
(00:43) No Huddle #28 K.Moulton rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA29 (#1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
24.4%
(00:09) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete deep left to #15 R.Vander Zee thrown to OREGON45 PENALTY OREGON Pass Interference (#7 I.Obidegwu) 15 yards from IOWA29 to IOWA44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
26.5%
(00:05) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 4 yards gain to the IOWA48 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
27.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OREGON45 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
27.6%
(14:21) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 1 yard gain to the OREGON44 (#44 T.Tuioti; #29 A.Porter)Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
25.7%
(13:37) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OREGON40 (#44 T.Tuioti; #52 A.Washington)Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
25.3%
(12:51) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right thrown to OREGON39 QB hurried by #52 A.WashingtonSimilar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+58
35.9%
(12:43) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 58 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 12:39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:5571% → 72%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.4%
(12:38) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 9 yards gain to the OREGON34 (#4 K.Entringer; #6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
27.7%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OREGON42 (#36 J.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
25.5%
(11:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 11 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#4 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
24.7%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 12 yards gain to the IOWA35 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #36 J.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
22.7%
(10:19) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA31 (#43 K.Sharar), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
21.9%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA27 (#36 J.Montgomery; #43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
22.7%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush left for 0 yards to the IOWA27 (#6 Z.Lutmer) PENALTY OREGON Holding (#83 R.Saleapaga) 10 yards from IOWA27 to IOWA37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
24.1%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #11 J.McClellan thrown to IOWA25 PENALTY OREGON Ineligible Downfield on Pass declinedSimilar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
27.6%
(08:41) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 30 yards to the IOWA07 fair catch by #21 K.Wetjen at IOWA07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16TD
14 plays · 93 yds · 6:3633% → 72%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
33.2%
(08:34) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA11 (#54 J.Mixon; #22 J.Canady)Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
30.8%
(07:56) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 1 yard gain to the IOWA12 (#52 A.Washington; #28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+40
27.0%
(07:11) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep middle to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA47, for 40 yards to the OREGON48 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
35.0%
(06:19) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 2 yards gain to the OREGON46 (#54 J.Mixon; #4 B.Finney)Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
35.1%
(05:38) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete deep right to #81 D.Vonnahme thrown to OREGON15Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+5
31.9%
(05:31) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #5 J.Gill caught at OREGON41, for 5 yards to the OREGON41 (#22 J.Canady)Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+15
30.4%
(04:46) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at OREGON36, for 15 yards to the OREGON26 (#31 D.Thieneman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
35.4%
(04:04) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 16 yards gain to the OREGON10 (#54 J.Mixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
35.5%
(03:23) #28 K.Moulton rush left for 1 yard gain to the OREGON09 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
31.7%
(02:41) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #88 H.Large caught at OREGON07, for 6 yards to the OREGON03 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
28.6%
(01:55) #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme thrown to OREGON00 QB hurried by #44 T.TuiotiSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.5%
Mark Gronowski 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 1:3935% → 94%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.6%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OREGON29 (#95 A.Graves; #49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
64.9%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #17 C.Perry caught at OREGON33, for 4 yards to the OREGON33 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
64.0%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OREGON36 (#49 E.Hurkett; #48 M.Llewellyn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
65.2%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #4 M.Benson caught at OREGON40, for 5 yards to the OREGON41 (#2 T.Hall)Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
62.3%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #11 J.McClellan caught at OREGON46, for 8 yards to the OREGON49 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
61.6%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete deep right to #4 M.Benson caught at IOWA27, for 24 yards to the IOWA27 (#2 T.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
58.4%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Benson thrown to IOWA12Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
64.4%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #11 J.McClellan caught at IOWA25, for 6 yards to the IOWA21 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
67.8%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete deep left to #4 M.Benson thrown to IOWA00Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
6.5%
Atticus Sappington 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:03
Atticus Sappington 39 Yd Field Goal
-60.5
TD · Q4 1:51
Mark Gronowski 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+42.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Atticus Sappington 46 Yd Field Goal
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com