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Northwestern 17 at USC 38

USC
2025 · Week 11 · Nov 7, 2025 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:45: (00:49) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at USC02, for 4 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:45 #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine) — NU win probability +3.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:26: (07:43) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26 #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine) — NU win probability +8.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:24: (01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 12 yards gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:24, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper) — USC win probability +6.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:56: (08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #8 J.Lane caught at NU00, for 10 yards to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:56, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper) — USC win probability +5.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:14: (11:18) No Huddle #6 M.Lemon rush left for 4 yards gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:14 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper) — USC win probability +4.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:00USC 4th & 1 at NU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:58USC 4th & 6 at USC 46, tied
    Close callWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:16USC 4th & 21 at NU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:32NU 4th & 1 at NU 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:57NU 4th & 6 at NU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:18USC 4th & 5 at USC 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:08NU 4th & 3 at USC 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−2.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:43NU 4th & 1 at USC 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:17NU 4th & 13 at USC 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:19NU 4th & 5 at USC 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:40USC 4th & 3 at NU 3, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:13NU 4th & 14 at NU 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:46USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:45NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:27USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:26NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:24USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:56USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:14USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
17 plays · 82 yds · 7:0086% → 86%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
85.7%
(14:56) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #87 L.McRee caught at USC23, for 5 yards to the USC23 (#18 G.Wallace)Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
85.5%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #30 K.Miller caught at USC16, for 2 yards to the USC25 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+19
85.4%
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC26, for 19 yards to the USC44 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
85.4%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC45 (#1 C.Bastone). #1 C.Bastone injured on the playSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
85.2%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #87 L.McRee caught at USC50, for 5 yards to the USC50 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 4
50
+9
85.1%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #85 W.Lyons caught at NU41, for 9 yards to the NU41 (#2 F.Davis II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.1%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep middle to #6 M.Lemon thrown to NU00Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
85.1%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 12 yards gain to the NU29 (#37 M.Uihlein; #6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
85.0%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at NU21, for 8 yards to the NU21 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
84.9%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #87 L.McRee thrown to NU18Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
84.7%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU20 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
84.5%
(10:04) No Huddle #14 J.Maiava rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU18 (#37 M.Uihlein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
84.6%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 0 yards to the NU18 (#1 C.Bastone; #91 A.Hubbard)Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+11
84.3%
(08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at NU08, for 11 yards to the NU07 (#9 B.Turner), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NU Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
84.2%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at NU07, for 0 yards to the NU07 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.5%
(07:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at NU04, for 7 yards to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:46 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:5515% → 20%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.0%
(07:46) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU27 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
84.9%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short middle to #19 D.Wagner caught at NU33, for 6 yards to the NU33 (#7 K.Ramsey)Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
84.8%
(06:31) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU35 (#97 J.Abasiri), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
84.7%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at NU33, for 6 yards to the NU41 (#24 C.Pierce), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+14
84.3%
(05:25) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 14 yards gain to the USC45 (#18 E.Gentry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
84.1%
(04:45) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #5 C.Komolafe caught at USC50, for 9 yards to the USC36 (#25 M.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+5
83.9%
(04:11) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC31 (#7 K.Ramsey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
83.5%
(03:28) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC26 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
83.1%
(02:43) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right thrown to USC26 QB hurried by #18 E.GentrySimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+18
83.4%
(02:36) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #5 C.Komolafe caught at USC22, for 18 yards to the USC08 (#23 D.Stephens II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
83.0%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC07 (#6 A.Lucas)Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
82.8%
(01:33) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC04 (#25 M.Williams; #18 E.Gentry)Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.7%
(00:49) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at USC02, for 4 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:45 #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:0482% → 84%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
81.8%
(00:39) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 4 yards gain to the USC46 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
81.9%
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #87 L.McRee thrown to USC45Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
81.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 0 yards to the USC46 (#37 M.Uihlein; #18 G.Wallace)Similar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+10
80.3%
(14:24) #80 S.Huard pass complete short left to #16 T.Hines caught at NU45, for 10 yards to the NU44, out of bounds at NU44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
81.6%
(13:48) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #6 M.Lemon caught at NU20, for 24 yards to the NU20, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
81.7%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush right for 11 yards gain to the NU09 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
81.6%
(12:52) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU07 (#95 N.Story)Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
81.4%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #30 K.Miller caught at NU06, for 1 yard to the NU06 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #13 J.Fussell)Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.4%
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush right for 6 yards gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5417% → 26%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.4%
(11:27) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at NU24, for 8 yards to the NU33 (#25 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
82.5%
(10:51) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush right for 9 yards gain to the NU42 (#19 B.Fitzgerald; #7 K.Ramsey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
82.6%
(10:27) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #80 H.Eligon II caught at NU46, for 5 yards to the NU47 (#17 D.Nicholson)Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+8
82.2%
(09:46) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush right for 8 yards gain to the USC45 (#23 D.Stephens II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
81.9%
(09:11) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at USC49, for 6 yards to the USC39 (#7 K.Ramsey)Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+37
81.6%
(08:28) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 37 yards gain to the USC02 (#7 K.Ramsey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.6%
(07:43) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26 #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:0078% → 77%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
78.0%
(07:26) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #87 L.McRee caught at USC48, for 42 yards to the NU33 (#33 B.Brus), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
79.9%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #6 M.Lemon caught at NU30, for 3 yards to the NU30 (#9 B.Turner)Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
79.8%
(06:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at NU00, for 30 yards to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:20 PENALTY USC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#74 J.Tauanuu) 5 yards from NU30 to NU35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
80.2%
(06:20) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep middle to #6 M.Lemon thrown to NU05Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-9
79.0%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava sacked for loss of 9 yards to the NU44 (#95 N.Story)Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 21
OPP 44
0
77.2%
(05:25) #80 S.Johnson punt 23 yards to the NU21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4025% → 25%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
75.3%
(05:16) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #10 R.Ahumaraeze thrown to NU26 broken up by #19 B.FitzgeraldSimilar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
75.4%
(05:12) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NU24 (#1 K.Crawford; #18 E.Gentry)Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+6
75.3%
(04:23) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NU18, for 6 yards to the NU30 (#10 B.Shelby; #24 C.Pierce), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
75.2%
(03:39) #11 L.Akers punt 49 yards to the USC21 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
77.1%
(03:32) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 3 yards gain to the USC24 (#18 G.Wallace)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1177% → 85%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+55
76.5%
(02:47) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 55 yards gain to the NU25 (#2 F.Davis II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
79.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at NU12, for 13 yards to the NU12, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
85.4%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 12 yards gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:24, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1817% → 16%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
83.3%
(01:19) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NU31 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
82.6%
(01:15) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short right to #19 D.Wagner thrown to USC50Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
83.3%
(01:10) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to USC45 broken up by #17 D.NicholsonSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
84.0%
(01:04) #11 L.Akers punt 46 yards to the USC23 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3383% → 81%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
83.1%
(00:57) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #16 T.Hines thrown to NU48Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
82.9%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at USC28, for 5 yards to the USC28 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
82.4%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #6 M.Lemon thrown to NU45 broken up by #7 O.AdeyiSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
80.8%
(00:24) #80 S.Johnson punt 41 yards to the NU31 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NU31 PENALTY USC Illegal Formation (#10 B.Shelby) 5 yards from NU31 to NU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0417% → 17%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
83.4%
(00:18) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short middle to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NU40, for 8 yards to the NU44 (#23 D.Stephens II; #22 B.Conley). #1 K.Crawford injured on the playSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
82.2%
(00:03) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 7 yards gain to the NU50 fumbled by #41 R.Preckel at NU50 forced by #97 J.Abasiri recovered by USC #6 A.Lucas at NU50, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-1
82.6%
(00:09) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NU40, for 1 yard loss to the NU43 (#10 B.Shelby)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:4618% → 18%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at NU26, for 3 yards to the NU28 (#22 B.Conley)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
82.1%
(14:22) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 21 yards gain to the NU49 (#19 B.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.6%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #17 G.Wilde caught at NU45, for 0 yards to the NU49 (#17 D.Nicholson)Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
80.9%
(13:13) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to USC25 broken up by #22 B.ConleySimilar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+7
81.5%
(13:07) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USC44 (#8 D.Thompkins)Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
82.1%
(12:16) #11 L.Akers punt 35 yards to the USC09 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 4:0583% → 92%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
83.2%
(12:08) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC17, for 14 yards to the USC23 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+52
83.7%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #6 M.Lemon caught at NU48, for 52 yards to the NU25 (#2 F.Davis II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.0%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #6 M.Lemon thrown to NU02Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
85.8%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the NU25 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+13
84.9%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at NU12, for 13 yards to the NU12, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
86.9%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU10 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+5
86.9%
PENALTY USC False Start (#77 A.Noa) 5 yards from NU10 to NU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+5
86.6%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 5 yards gain to the NU10 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
91.7%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #8 J.Lane caught at NU00, for 10 yards to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:56, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 7:309% → 9%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.7%
(07:56) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU27 (#18 E.Gentry; #1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
90.8%
(07:05) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep left to #17 G.Wilde thrown to USC48 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (#22 B.Conley) 15 yards from NU27 to NU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
90.0%
(07:00) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #84 H.Welcing caught at NU38, for 4 yards loss to the NU38 (#22 B.Conley)Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+13
91.1%
(06:15) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at USC49, for 13 yards to the USC49, out of bounds at USC49Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
89.6%
(05:46) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 0 yards to the USC49 (#7 K.Ramsey)Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
90.6%
(05:03) #86 L.Albright rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC47 (#4 J.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
90.2%
(04:23) #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #86 L.Albright caught at USC45, for 3 yards to the USC44 (#17 D.Nicholson)Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
90.8%
(03:42) Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 0 yards to the USC44 (#22 B.Conley)Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+32
91.6%
(02:52) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete deep right to #10 R.Ahumaraeze caught at USC16, for 32 yards to the USC12 (#22 B.Conley), 1ST DOWN. #60 E.Beerntsen injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
90.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short left to #84 H.Welcing thrown to USC00Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
90.4%
(01:55) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC10 (#9 K.Silver)Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-5
91.7%
(01:10) Shotgun #8 P.Stone sacked for loss of 5 yards to the USC15 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+33
90.9%
(00:20) #82 J.Olsen field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine), clock 00:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5792% → 98%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.8%
(00:17) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at USC30, for 11 yards to the USC36 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
92.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 4 yards loss to the USC32 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+14
92.0%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 J.Lane caught at USC44, for 14 yards to the USC46 (#7 O.Adeyi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
92.8%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 13 yards gain to the NU41 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
92.9%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #6 M.Lemon caught at NU25, for 19 yards to the NU22 (#13 J.Fussell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
93.3%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at NU25, for 3 yards to the NU19 (#9 B.Turner), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+15
93.4%
(11:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Lane thrown to NU00 PENALTY NU Pass Interference (#9 B.Turner) 15 yards from NU19 to NU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.3%
(11:18) No Huddle #6 M.Lemon rush left for 4 yards gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:14 #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:413% → 3%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
97.3%
(11:08) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #17 G.Wilde caught at NU34, for 16 yards to the NU38 (#25 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
97.1%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NU42 (#92 C.Jones)Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+6
97.1%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #84 H.Welcing caught at NU43, for 6 yards to the NU48 (#19 B.Fitzgerald), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
97.1%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush left for 5 yards gain to the USC47 (#24 C.Pierce)Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
96.9%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep right to #19 D.Wagner thrown to USC25Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
97.1%
(09:28) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short middle thrown to USC47 QB hurried by #7 K.RamseySimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
97.1%
(09:25) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete short middle to #10 R.Ahumaraeze thrown to USC29 broken up by #17 D.Nicholson, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 4:3398% → 100%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.4%
(09:19) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NU47 (#1 C.Bastone)Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+18
98.5%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush right for 18 yards gain to the NU29 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.6%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush left for 0 yards to the NU29 (#37 M.Uihlein; #47 M.Kilbane)Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
98.6%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #6 M.Lemon caught at NU21, for 9 yards to the NU20 (#13 J.Fussell), out of bounds PENALTY NU Face Mask (#13 J.Fussell) 11 yard from NU20 to NU09, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
98.8%
(06:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU08 (#37 M.Uihlein)Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
98.9%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NU03 (#91 A.Hubbard). #50 J.Reed injured on the playSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.0%
(04:53) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #87 L.McRee thrown to NU02 broken up by #33 B.BrusSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+22
99.6%
(04:44) #48 R.Sayeri field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper), clock 04:40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.5%
(04:40) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #10 R.Ahumaraeze caught at NU29, for 6 yards to the NU31 (#22 B.Conley; #14 T.Robinson)Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-10
99.5%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone sacked for loss of 10 yards to the NU21 (#4 J.Stewart)Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.5%
(03:28) Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass incomplete deep middle to #17 G.Wilde thrown to NU48 broken up by #24 C.PierceSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+5
99.5%
(03:21) #11 L.Akers punt 51 yards to the USC28 #44 J.Zamora return 5 yards to the USC33 (#18 G.Wallace), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.7%
(03:13) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush right for 4 yards gain to the USC37 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
99.7%
(02:26) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC40 (#44 C.Campbell)Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+12
99.8%
(02:00) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush left for 12 yards gain to the NU48 (#37 M.Uihlein), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.8%
(01:17) Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NU42 (#33 B.Brus; #9 B.Turner)Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-1
99.8%
(00:29) Kneel down by USC at NU43 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:26
(07:43) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26 #82 J.Olsen kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #39 J.Florentine)
-8
TD · Q2 1:24
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 12 yards gain to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:24, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)
+6.2
TD · Q3 7:56
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #8 J.Lane caught at NU00, for 10 yards to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:56, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Sayeri kick attempt good (H: #80 S.Johnson, LS: #31 H.Pepper)
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com