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PUR

Purdue 16 at Michigan 21

MICH
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:55: (07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:55 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #38 J.McCallister, LS: #46 L.Raab) — PUR win probability +6.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:03: (10:09) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:03 #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr) — MICH win probability +11.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:00: Malachi Thomas 5 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — PUR win probability +18.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:51: (05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UOM30 (#25 H.McLaurin) — MICH win probability +9.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:46: (03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR29 (#21 T.Ra-El) — MICH win probability +10.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:16PUR 4th & 10 at MICH 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:53MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:43PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:24PUR 4th & 2 at MICH 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:58PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:20MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:00PUR 4th & 18 at MICH 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:30MICH 4th & 10 at PUR 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:41PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.2%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 1:25MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:55PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:17MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:03MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:00PUR Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:297% → 7%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
93.5%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #2 M.Jackson III caught at PUR27, for 3 yards to the PUR34 (#7 T.Metcalf; #25 M.Curtis)Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+16
93.4%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #0 N.Tuggle caught at PUR46, for 16 yards to the PUR50 (#6 B.Hillman; #20 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
50
+6
93.3%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UOM44 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
93.1%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #0 N.Tuggle caught at UOM39, for 5 yards to the UOM39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.0%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left to #22 A.Harris thrown to UOM39 QB hurried by #9 C.BrandtSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
92.9%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush left for 1 yard gain to the UOM38 (#9 C.Brandt)Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+5
92.8%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep middle to #17 R.Walker thrown to UOM10 PENALTY UOM Offside (#8 D.Moore) 5 yards from UOM38 to UOM33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-6
92.8%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UOM39 (#8 D.Moore)Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
92.7%
(11:24) #38 J.McCallister punt 30 yards to the UOM09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2693% → 92%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
92.7%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UOM14 (#5 C.Correa; #40 I.Jeffries)Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
92.5%
(10:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #4 A.Marsh caught at UOM10, for 0 yards to the UOM14 (#10 A.Sanford)Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+11
92.3%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 11 yards gain to the UOM25 (#21 T.Ra-El), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.3%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UOM29 (#58 B.Ishmail)Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
92.1%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep middle to #6 J.Browder thrown to UOM50Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
92.0%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #83 Z.Marshall thrown to UOM45Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.8%
(08:48) #90 H.Hollenbeck punt 37 yards to the PUR34, out of bounds at PUR34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:568% → 10%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
91.9%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #22 A.Harris caught at PUR29, for 2 yards to the PUR36 (#6 B.Hillman; #20 J.Hill)Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+15
91.7%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #2 M.Jackson III caught at PUR50, for 15 yards to the UOM49 (#25 M.Curtis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
91.4%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #13 E.Horton caught at UOM48, for 5 yards to the UOM44 (#10 Z.Berry)Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
91.2%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UOM42 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+20
91.0%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush right for 20 yards gain to the UOM22 (#10 Z.Berry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
90.7%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM19 (#17 E.Etta)Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-9
90.5%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UOM28 (#8 D.Moore), fumble by #15 R.Browne recovered by UOM #26 R.Benny at UOM28, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short middle thrown to UOM22 QB hurried by #8 D.Moore)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2791% → 90%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
91.0%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UOM27 (#5 C.Correa, #16 M.Powell)Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+5
90.8%
(04:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UOM32 (#5 C.Correa)Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
90.5%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.McCulley thrown to PUR47Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
90.2%
(03:59) #90 H.Hollenbeck punt 50 yards to the PUR18 fair catch by #2 M.Jackson III at PUR18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0410% → 10%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
90.4%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush right for 2 yards gain to the PUR20 (#15 E.Hausmann; #7 T.Metcalf)Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-6
90.1%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #24 M.Thomas caught at PUR13, for 6 yards loss to the PUR14 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+8
90.0%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush middle for 8 yards gain to the PUR22 (#4 T.Guy)Similar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
89.9%
(01:58) #38 J.McCallister punt 57 yards to the UOM21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:1390% → 92%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+25
89.8%
(01:44) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #23 J.Marshall caught at UOM17, for 25 yards to the UOM46 (#16 M.Powell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
91.8%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 54 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:25, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 9:159% → 18%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.2%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #0 N.Tuggle caught at PUR30, for 6 yards to the PUR31 (#18 T.Bowles; #29 C.Taylor)Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
91.0%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR35 (#29 C.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
91.0%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush left for 5 yards gain to the PUR40 (#33 D.Nichols; #18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
90.6%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR42 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+8
90.5%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush right for 8 yards gain to the PUR50 (#3 J.Mangham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
50
+7
90.2%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #0 N.Tuggle caught at UOM45, for 7 yards to the UOM43 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
90.0%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UOM39 (#18 T.Bowles; #0 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
89.9%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep right to #22 A.Harris thrown to UOM09 PENALTY PUR Holding (#78 B.Coly) 10 yards from UOM39 to UOM49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+6
90.2%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #13 E.Horton caught at UOM50, for 6 yards to the UOM43 (#20 J.Hill)Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+5
90.1%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UOM38 (#25 M.Curtis)Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+7
89.6%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #13 E.Horton caught at UOM32, for 7 yards to the UOM31 (#25 M.Curtis)Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+4
89.7%
(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #0 N.Tuggle caught at UOM28, for 4 yards to the UOM27 (#13 C.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
88.7%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton rush left for 5 yards gain to the UOM22 (#15 E.Hausmann; #8 D.Moore)Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+13
88.5%
(09:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UOM09 (#15 E.Hausmann), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
88.3%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton pass complete short left to #24 M.Thomas caught at UOM10, for 9 yards to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:29 PENALTY PUR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#0 N.Tuggle) 5 yards from UOM09 to UOM14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+6
88.4%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush left for 6 yards gain to the UOM08 (#25 M.Curtis)Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
88.3%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush left for 1 yard loss to the UOM09 (#33 D.Nichols)Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
88.7%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton pass incomplete short right to #0 N.Tuggle thrown to UOM00 PENALTY UOM Offside declined UOM Pass Interference (#20 J.Hill) 7 yards from UOM09 to UOM02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.5%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:55 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #38 J.McCallister, LS: #46 L.Raab)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8INT
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:4286% → 85%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
85.7%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 6 yards gain to the UOM26 (#21 T.Ra-El)Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
85.7%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 5 yards gain to the UOM31 (#25 H.McLaurin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
85.5%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at PUR50, for 20 yards to the PUR49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
86.4%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #88 D.Tonielli caught at UOM48, for 4 yards to the PUR45 (#21 T.Ra-El)Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
86.3%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR43 (#9 M.Slusher)Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
85.7%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #83 Z.Marshall caught at PUR39, for 5 yards to the PUR38 (#5 C.Correa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
85.8%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 3 yards gain to the PUR35 (#10 A.Sanford; #6 S.Ellis)Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
85.9%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.McCulley thrown to PUR00Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+12
85.1%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 12 yards gain to the PUR23 (#1 S.Bradford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
85.5%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Parker rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR19 (#21 T.Ra-El)Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
85.3%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #17 M.Klein thrown to PUR04 QB hurried by #20 W.BerglundSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
84.7%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #4 H.Hines at PUR05 QB hurried by #20 W.Berglund, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5519% → 18%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
81.5%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush right for 3 yards gain to the PUR08 (#26 R.Benny; #4 T.Guy)Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+3
81.0%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR11 (#15 E.Hausmann; #18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
81.3%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short middle to #13 E.Horton thrown to PUR23 broken up by #10 Z.Berry QB hurried by #26 R.BennySimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
81.8%
(00:58) #38 J.McCallister punt 21 yards to the PUR32, out of bounds at PUR32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:3685% → 89%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.8%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #0 S.Morgan thrown to PUR15Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
84.7%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PUR23 (#9 M.Slusher)Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+10
83.9%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #17 M.Klein caught at PUR25, for 10 yards to the PUR13 (#21 T.Ra-El), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
84.5%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 10 yards gain to the PUR03 (#9 M.Slusher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.2%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:17 #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
87.2%
(00:11) Kneel down by #15 R.Browne at PUR34 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2688% → 87%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
88.3%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UOM15 (#97 J.Harkless)Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+5
88.1%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #1 D.McCulley caught at UOM19, for 5 yards to the UOM20 (#0 T.Grimes)Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
87.5%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Browder thrown to UOM25 broken up by #4 H.HinesSimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+6
87.0%
(13:28) #90 H.Hollenbeck punt 53 yards to the PUR27 #2 M.Jackson III return 6 yards to the PUR33 (#22 E.Dotson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:0613% → 16%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
87.1%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #2 M.Jackson III caught at UOM48, for 19 yards to the UOM48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
85.9%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM45 (#4 T.Guy)Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
85.7%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #13 E.Horton caught at UOM45, for 10 yards to the UOM35 (#26 R.Benny), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
84.7%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush left for 2 yards gain to the UOM33 (#15 E.Hausmann), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-1
84.5%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UOM34 (#0 T.Williams)Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+10
85.3%
(10:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush left for 10 yards gain to the UOM24 (#15 E.Hausmann), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
83.7%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left to #22 A.Harris thrown to UOM18Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
84.0%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 0 yards to the UOM24 (#0 T.Williams; #12 N.Owusu-Boateng)Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-8
84.8%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left thrown to UOM10 QB hurried by #4 T.Guy PENALTY PUR Intentional Grounding (#15 R.Browne)Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 18
OPP 32
+50
84.1%
(09:05) #35 S.Porath field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #38 J.McCallister, LS: #46 L.Raab), clock 09:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:2384% → 82%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.2%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UOM26 (#8 C.Madden)Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
83.8%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #9 C.Goodwin caught at UOM38, for 12 yards to the UOM38 (#0 T.Grimes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
84.7%
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #4 A.Marsh caught at UOM36, for 8 yards to the UOM46 (#9 M.Slusher)Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
85.2%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 7 yards gain to the PUR47 (#91 C.Nunnally), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
85.3%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at UOM50, for 3 yards loss to the PUR50 (#1 S.Bradford)Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 13
50
+3
84.0%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 3 yards gain to the PUR47 (#9 M.Slusher)Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
83.6%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short middle to #4 A.Marsh thrown to PUR33Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
82.2%
(05:42) #90 H.Hollenbeck punt 29 yards to the PUR18 blocked by #20 W.Berglund, out of bounds at PUR18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4518% → 17%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
81.8%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #87 C.Earls thrown to PUR21Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
82.0%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left to #87 C.Earls thrown to PUR21 QB hurried by #25 M.CurtisSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+4
83.0%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR22 (#33 D.Nichols)Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 6
OWN 22
-2
82.9%
(04:48) #38 J.McCallister punt 46 yards to the UOM32 #0 S.Morgan return for loss of 2 yards to the UOM30 (#21 T.Ra-El)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4982% → 85%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
82.4%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #17 M.Klein caught at UOM28, for 6 yards to the UOM36 (#4 H.Hines) PENALTY PUR UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#21 T.Ra-El) 15 yards from UOM36 to PUR49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
84.7%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete deep right to #83 Z.Marshall caught at PUR23, for 37 yards to the PUR12 (#15 V.Cobb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
85.2%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 12 yards gain to the PUR00 fumbled by #19 B.Underwood at PUR04 forced by #91 C.Nunnally, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:4019% → 23%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
80.6%
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush left for 5 yards gain to the PUR25 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
79.7%
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #2 M.Jackson III caught at PUR24, for 0 yards to the PUR25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+16
80.8%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #2 M.Jackson III caught at PUR35, for 16 yards to the PUR41 QB hurried by #95 T.Pierce (#25 M.Curtis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
77.8%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton pass complete short left to #2 M.Jackson III caught at PUR39, for 5 yards to the PUR46 (#26 R.Benny)Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
76.4%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR50 (#9 C.Brandt; #26 R.Benny)Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 1
50
-1
75.7%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton rush middle for 1 yard loss to the PUR49 (#26 R.Benny; #3 J.Mangham)Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+1
77.2%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PUR50 (#3 J.Mangham; #29 C.Taylor), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:4483% → 94%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
50
+3
83.2%
(14:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR47 (#1 S.Bradford; #91 C.Nunnally)Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+12
83.2%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 12 yards gain to the PUR35 (#21 T.Ra-El; #4 H.Hines), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
83.8%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR31 (#16 M.Powell)Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+16
83.6%
(13:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #83 Z.Marshall caught at PUR28, for 16 yards to the PUR15 (#18 D.Kennedy; #9 M.Slusher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
83.4%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PUR10 (#21 T.Ra-El; #40 I.Jeffries)Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
83.3%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR07 (#21 T.Ra-El)Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+3
81.9%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR04 (#5 C.Correa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
82.9%
(10:48) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 5 yards to the PUR09 (#16 M.Powell)Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.1%
(10:09) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:03 #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:498% → 28%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
91.7%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush right for 9 yards gain to the PUR42 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
91.6%
(09:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR45 (#6 B.Hillman; #12 N.Owusu-Boateng), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
91.7%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #87 C.Earls caught at PUR50, for 7 yards to the UOM48 (#10 Z.Berry)Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+14
90.8%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 M.Thomas rush middle for 14 yards gain to the UOM34 (#7 T.Metcalf), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
90.6%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep left to #10 J.Watson thrown to UOM10 PENALTY UOM Pass Interference (#7 T.Metcalf) 15 yards from UOM34 to UOM19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
90.1%
(07:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #13 E.Horton caught at UOM20, for 6 yards to the UOM13 (#3 J.Mangham)Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+6
90.7%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UOM07 (#26 R.Benny), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
90.7%
(06:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton rush right for 2 yards gain to the UOM05 (#10 Z.Berry)Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.0%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton pass incomplete short left to #0 N.Tuggle thrown to UOM00Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
72.4%
Malachi Thomas 5 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20END OF GAME
17 plays · 63 yds · 5:1187% → 96%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.7%
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UOM30 (#25 H.McLaurin)Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+24
87.6%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 24 yards gain to the PUR46 (#21 T.Ra-El), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
89.5%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush right for 7 yards gain to the PUR39 (#21 T.Ra-El)Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+7
89.7%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 7 yards gain to the PUR32 (#25 H.McLaurin; #91 C.Nunnally), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
91.8%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR29 (#21 T.Ra-El)Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
92.4%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 3 yards gain to the PUR26 (#25 H.McLaurin)Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+5
92.4%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PUR21 (#5 C.Correa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
93.5%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 8 yards gain to the PUR13 (#21 T.Ra-El)Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
95.2%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR09 (#16 M.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
95.4%
(01:23) Kneel down by #19 B.Underwood at PUR10 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
96.1%
(00:40) Kneel down by #19 B.Underwood at PUR12 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:00
Malachi Thomas 5 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-18.7
TD · Q4 10:03
(10:09) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:03 #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)
+11.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:46
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR29 (#21 T.Ra-El)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com