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WIS

Wisconsin 7 at Oregon 21

ORE
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:05 · (02:08) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 41 yards to the WIS15 fair catch by #4 J.Ballard at WIS15 PENALTY WIS Illegal Formation declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+2.9Home team on offense+29.8Score differential+12.7Garbage-time factor+14.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+7.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:07: (01:06) #0 J.Davison rush left for 3 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07 #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso) — ORE win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:45: (12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short left to #1 D.Moore caught at WIS15, for 24 yards to the WIS05 (#8 M.Posa; #29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WIS Offside declined ORE Personal Foul (#72 I.Laloulu) 15 yards from WIS05 to WIS20 — ORE win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:11: (14:17) #36 A.Sappington kickoff 65 yards to the WIS00 #8 V.Anthony II return 22 yards to the WIS22 (#2 K.Lopa; #24 Z.Grisham) — ORE win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:57: (07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short right to #86 L.Mason caught at ORE02, for 2 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:57 #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy) — WIS win probability +3.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:42: (07:47) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE29 (#92 C.Walker; #68 B.Barten) — ORE win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:40ORE 4th & 3 at WIS 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:44WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:48ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:46WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:20ORE 4th & 12 at WIS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:48WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:01ORE 4th & 17 at ORE 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:24WIS 4th & 1 at ORE 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:31WIS 4th & 18 at ORE 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:14WIS 4th & 7 at ORE 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:29ORE 4th & 15 at WIS 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:45WIS 4th & 4 at ORE 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:05ORE 4th & 24 at ORE 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0997% → 97%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
97.3%
(14:55) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WIS37 (#44 C.Catalano; #29 M.Jung)Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
97.3%
(14:24) #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #18 K.Sadiq thrown to WIS40Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+2
97.2%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush left for 2 yards gain to the WIS35 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 3
OPP 35
-9
97.2%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore sacked for loss of 9 yards to the WIS44 (#22 M.Reiger), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:513% → 3%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.1%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short right to #25 C.Yacamelli thrown to WIS45Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
97.1%
(13:33) Shotgun #25 C.Yacamelli rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS46 (#52 A.Washington)Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
97.0%
(12:53) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short middle to #2 T.Kekahuna thrown to WIS48 broken up by #52 A.Washington QB hurried by #1 B.AlexanderSimilar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
97.0%
(12:48) #91 S.West punt 38 yards to the ORE16 fair catch by #2 G.Bryant Jr. at ORE16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:5397% → 97%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
97.0%
(12:41) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE18 (#8 M.Posa; #44 C.Catalano) PENALTY WIS Offside (#17 D.Peterson) 5 yards from ORE16 to ORE21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 5
OWN 21
+4
97.0%
(12:26) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #2 G.Bryant Jr. caught at ORE24, for 4 yards to the ORE25 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE27 (#17 D.Peterson; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
96.8%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #0 J.Davison caught at ORE28, for 5 yards to the ORE32 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+1
96.7%
(10:50) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #0 J.Davison caught at ORE28, for 1 yard to the ORE33 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-10
96.6%
(10:06) Shotgun #5 D.Moore sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ORE23 (#15 S.Cheeks) PENALTY ORE Face Mask declinedSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 14
OWN 23
0
96.5%
(09:52) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 38 yards to the WIS39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:544% → 4%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
96.4%
(09:45) #10 G.Ituka rush left for 8 yards gain to the WIS47 (#31 D.Thieneman; #21 A.Flowers)Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
96.1%
(08:14) #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short right to #86 L.Mason thrown to WIS50Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
96.1%
(08:05) #10 G.Ituka rush left for 1 yard gain to the WIS48 (#52 A.Washington)Similar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-1
96.1%
(07:46) #15 H.Simmons rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WIS47 fumbled by #15 H.Simmons at WIS47 recovered by WIS #10 G.Ituka at WIS47, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1596% → 96%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
96.2%
(07:39) Shotgun #4 M.Benson rush left for 4 yards loss to the ORE49 (#59 A.Witt; #2 R.Hallman)Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 14
OWN 49
0
96.1%
(07:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Benson thrown to WIS44 broken up by #44 C.CatalanoSimilar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+7
95.9%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #2 G.Bryant Jr. caught at WIS44, for 7 yards to the WIS44 (#9 A.Brown)Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+5
95.9%
PENALTY ORE Illegal Snap (#43 L.Basso) 5 yards from WIS44 to WIS49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
95.8%
(06:25) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 48 yards to the WIS01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:234% → 5%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
95.8%
(06:15) #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 0 yards to the WIS01 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
95.7%
(05:36) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WIS08 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+12
95.6%
(04:54) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short right to #8 V.Anthony II caught at WIS15, for 12 yards to the WIS20 (#7 I.Obidegwu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
95.3%
(04:09) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WIS25 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
95.1%
(03:29) #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WIS31 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.9%
(02:54) #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short left to #8 V.Anthony II thrown to WIS50Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
94.9%
(02:48) Shotgun #25 C.Yacamelli rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WIS37 (#26 D.Jackson)Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
94.6%
(02:05) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Kekahuna thrown to WIS45 broken up by #31 D.Thieneman QB hurried by #1 B.AlexanderSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+5
94.7%
(01:58) #91 S.West punt 50 yards to the ORE13 #2 G.Bryant Jr. return 5 yards to the ORE18 (#17 D.Peterson; #25 C.Yacamelli)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:3795% → 94%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
94.7%
(01:45) #6 N.Whittington rush right for 0 yards to the ORE18 (#31 J.Suggs)Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
94.6%
(01:13) #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Moore thrown to ORE22Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+20
94.4%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #11 J.McClellan caught at ORE34, for 20 yards to the ORE38 (#8 M.Posa; #9 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
94.7%
(00:46) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ORE36 (#17 D.Peterson)Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
94.5%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short middle to #2 G.Bryant Jr. thrown to ORE30 broken up by #8 M.PosaSimilar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
94.4%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Moore thrown to ORE48Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+5
94.3%
PENALTY ORE False Start (#0 D.Austin) 5 yards from ORE36 to ORE31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
94.2%
(00:05) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 46 yards to the WIS23 fair catch by #4 J.Ballard at WIS23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
15 plays · 35 yds · 5:306% → 8%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
94.1%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short left to #85 G.Stec thrown to WIS40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
94.1%
PENALTY ORE Offside (#52 A.Washington) 5 yards from WIS23 to WIS28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+9
94.0%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush right for 9 yards gain to the WIS37 (#31 D.Thieneman; #28 B.Boettcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
93.8%
(14:17) #10 G.Ituka rush right for 10 yards gain to the WIS47 (#28 B.Boettcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.3%
(13:43) #10 G.Ituka rush left for 0 yards to the WIS47 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
93.1%
(13:03) #25 C.Yacamelli rush left for 8 yards gain to the ORE45 (#28 B.Boettcher)Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
92.8%
(12:18) #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE44 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+10
92.7%
(11:30) #34 J.Acker rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ORE34 (#31 D.Thieneman; #21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
92.0%
(10:52) #10 G.Ituka rush left for 2 yards gain to the ORE32 (#54 J.Mixon; #44 T.Tuioti) PENALTY WIS Holding (#74 D.Heinzen) 10 yards from ORE34 to ORE44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
92.2%
(10:27) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short left to #34 J.Acker thrown to ORE48 QB hurried by #52 A.WashingtonSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+7
92.2%
(10:22) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ORE37 (#1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
92.0%
(09:43) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete deep left to #8 V.Anthony II thrown to ORE05 broken up by #21 A.FlowersSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+5
92.3%
PENALTY WIS Delay Of Game (#49 A.Bertrams) 5 yards from ORE37 to ORE42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
92.3%
(09:37) #49 A.Bertrams punt 41 yards to the ORE01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
19 plays · 99 yds · 8:1593% → 93%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
92.6%
(09:28) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE03 (#22 M.Reiger; #44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
92.4%
(08:49) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE05 (#22 M.Reiger)Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+18
91.8%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #11 J.McClellan caught at ORE23, for 18 yards to the ORE23 (#17 D.Peterson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
92.0%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ORE30 (#44 C.Catalano; #8 M.Posa)Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+11
92.2%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ORE41 (#15 S.Cheeks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
92.0%
(06:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #11 J.McClellan caught at ORE43, for 2 yards to the ORE43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
92.0%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 1 yard gain to the ORE44 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+23
91.4%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #9 J.Johnson caught at ORE45, for 23 yards to the WIS33 (#17 D.Peterson; #29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
92.0%
(04:55) PENALTY ORE False Start (#72 I.Laloulu) 5 yards from WIS33 to WIS38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+11
91.3%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 11 yards gain to the WIS27 (#6 O.Agard; #29 M.Jung)Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+6
91.6%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WIS21, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
91.4%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush left for 5 yards gain to the WIS16 (#68 B.Barten)Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
91.1%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS12 (#68 B.Barten; #95 B.Lane Jr.)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
90.5%
(02:00) No Huddle #0 J.Davison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS09 (#44 C.Catalano), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
90.9%
(01:55) Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush left for 6 yards gain to the WIS03 (#44 C.Catalano), out of bounds PENALTY WIS Offside (#17 D.Peterson) 5 yards from WIS09 to WIS04. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.9%
(01:50) #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Moore thrown to WIS00 QB hurried by #44 C.CatalanoSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+5
90.9%
(01:46) PENALTY ORE Encroachment (#11 J.McClellan) 5 yards from WIS04 to WIS09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
90.8%
(01:47) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #18 K.Sadiq caught at WIS12, for 6 yards to the WIS03 (#29 M.Jung)Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.4%
(01:06) #0 J.Davison rush left for 3 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07 #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:418% → 8%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
92.5%
(00:58) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS36 (#1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
92.2%
(00:53) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS38 (#52 A.Washington)Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+5
92.0%
(00:48) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WIS43 (#1 B.Alexander; #10 M.Uiagalelei), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
91.6%
(00:14) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush right for 1 yard gain to the WIS44 (#52 A.Washington; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3592% → 96%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
92.4%
(14:58) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush right for 35 yards gain to the WIS40 (#9 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
93.0%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 10 yards gain to the WIS30 (#44 C.Catalano), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
92.9%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WIS29 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
92.8%
(13:17) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush left for 0 yards to the WIS29 (#68 B.Barten)Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+24
95.6%
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short left to #1 D.Moore caught at WIS15, for 24 yards to the WIS05 (#8 M.Posa; #29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WIS Offside declined ORE Personal Foul (#72 I.Laloulu) 15 yards from WIS05 to WIS20Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+15
95.8%
PENALTY ORE Personal Foul (#72 I.Laloulu) 15 yards from WIS05 to WIS20Similar
Q3 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
95.8%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush right for 20 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:14, 1ST DOWN #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:475% → 5%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.9%
(12:04) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete deep right to #14 D.Crowdus thrown to ORE40 broken up by #31 D.ThienemanSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
95.0%
PENALTY WIS False Start (#71 R.Mahlman) 5 yards from WIS36 to WIS31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+18
95.3%
(11:58) #10 G.Ituka rush left for 18 yards gain to the WIS49 (#31 D.Thieneman; #21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
94.5%
(11:14) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short middle to #86 L.Mason thrown to ORE45 broken up by #28 B.BoettcherSimilar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
94.6%
(11:10) Shotgun #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE48 (#54 J.Mixon)Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
95.0%
(10:24) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Ballard thrown to ORE45 QB hurried by #10 M.UiagaleleiSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
95.2%
(10:17) #49 A.Bertrams punt 36 yards to the ORE12 fair catch by #2 G.Bryant Jr. at ORE12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 83 yds · 5:3596% → 96%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
95.9%
(10:08) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE13 (#8 M.Posa; #30 C.Perkins)Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+36
95.9%
(09:31) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush left for 36 yards gain to the ORE49 (#29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.2%
(08:37) Shotgun #12 B.Thomas rush right for 3 yards gain to the WIS48 (#29 M.Jung)Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-4
96.1%
(07:57) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 4 yards loss to the ORE48 (#31 J.Suggs; #15 S.Cheeks)Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+19
96.1%
(07:12) Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short right to #1 D.Moore caught at WIS33, for 19 yards to the WIS33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-9
96.4%
(06:47) Shotgun #12 B.Thomas sacked for loss of 9 yards to the WIS42 (#59 A.Witt)Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+2
96.2%
(05:55) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush right for 2 yards gain to the WIS40 (#68 B.Barten; #8 M.Posa)Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+2
96.0%
(05:14) Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short middle to #1 D.Moore caught at WIS40, for 2 yards to the WIS38 (#1 C.Brooks Jr.; #44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 15
OPP 38
0
96.0%
(04:29) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 33 yards to the WIS05 fair catch by #4 J.Ballard at WIS05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 6:101% → 5%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.2%
(14:07) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Kekahuna thrown to WIS25 broken up by #28 B.Boettcher QB hurried by #54 J.MixonSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
99.2%
(14:02) #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete deep right to #1 C.Brooks Jr. thrown to ORE45 PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (#14 N.Offord) 15 yards from WIS22 to WIS37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.1%
(13:56) #15 H.Simmons pass complete short left to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at WIS35, for 9 yards to the WIS46 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
99.1%
(13:17) #15 H.Simmons sacked for loss of 1 yard to the WIS47 (#5 T.Johnson), fumble by #15 H.Simmons recovered by WIS #74 D.Heinzen at WIS47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.2%
(12:26) #10 G.Ituka rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WIS46 (#44 T.Tuioti; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
99.2%
(11:49) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass incomplete short right to #43 G.Bortolotti thrown to WIS50 QB hurried by #14 N.OffordSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+7
99.2%
(11:45) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short right to #86 L.Mason caught at WIS47, for 7 yards to the ORE47 (#31 D.Thieneman)Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+8
99.2%
(10:59) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short left to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at ORE39, for 8 yards to the ORE39 (#5 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.2%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short middle to #10 G.Ituka caught at ORE35, for 7 yards to the ORE32 (#28 B.Boettcher; #26 D.Jackson) PENALTY WIS Holding (#71 R.Mahlman) 10 yards from ORE39 to ORE49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+6
99.2%
(10:15) #15 H.Simmons pass complete short right to #2 T.Kekahuna caught at ORE49, for 6 yards to the ORE43 (#22 J.Canady)Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
99.2%
(09:35) #15 H.Simmons rush middle for 0 yards to the ORE43 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+42
99.3%
(09:12) No Huddle #15 H.Simmons pass complete deep right to #13 E.Hilton Jr. caught at ORE06, for 42 yards to the ORE01 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
98.9%
(08:38) No Huddle #15 H.Simmons rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ORE02 fumbled by #15 H.Simmons at ORE02 recovered by WIS #15 H.Simmons at ORE02, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.4%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short right to #86 L.Mason caught at ORE02, for 2 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:57 #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 16 yds · 5:3798% → 99%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.2%
(07:47) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE29 (#92 C.Walker; #68 B.Barten)Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+14
98.3%
(07:00) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ORE43 (#9 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.5%
(06:16) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 0 yards to the ORE43 (#6 O.Agard; #68 B.Barten)Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
98.6%
(05:35) Shotgun #6 N.Whittington rush middle for 9 yards gain to the WIS48 (#44 C.Catalano; #29 M.Jung)Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+6
98.7%
(04:51) Shotgun #12 B.Thomas rush right for 6 yards gain to the WIS42, out of bounds at WIS42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
98.8%
(04:09) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WIS34 (#9 A.Brown; #29 M.Jung)Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+10
99.0%
(03:29) Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS31 (#31 J.Suggs) PENALTY ORE Holding (#9 J.Johnson) 10 yards from WIS34 to WIS44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
99.0%
(03:06) Shotgun #12 B.Thomas rush right for 0 yards to the WIS44 (#92 C.Walker; #8 M.Posa)Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-2
98.9%
(02:20) Shotgun #12 B.Thomas sacked for loss of 2 yards to the WIS46 (#68 B.Barten)Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 14
OPP 46
+10
98.8%
(02:16) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds pass complete short left to #83 R.Saleapaga caught at WIS45, for 46 yards to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:11 PENALTY ORE Holding (#10 M.Uiagalelei) 10 yards from WIS46 to ORE44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 24
OWN 44
0
98.7%
(02:08) #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds punt 41 yards to the WIS15 fair catch by #4 J.Ballard at WIS15 PENALTY WIS Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
97.6%
(02:01) Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass intercepted by #0 D.Austin at WIS24 #0 D.Austin return 0 yards to the WIS24 (#13 E.Hilton Jr.) PENALTY WIS Personal Foul (#10 G.Ituka) 12 yards from WIS24 to WIS12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
99.2%
(01:53) Kneel down by #12 B.Thomas at WIS14 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 12
OPP 14
-1
99.2%
(01:13) Kneel down by #12 B.Thomas at WIS15 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 13
OPP 15
-2
99.2%
(00:34) Kneel down by #12 B.Thomas at WIS17 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:57
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 H.Simmons pass complete short right to #86 L.Mason caught at ORE02, for 2 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:57 #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)
-3.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 12:45
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Thomas pass complete short left to #1 D.Moore caught at WIS15, for 24 yards to the WIS05 (#8 M.Posa; #29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WIS Offside declined ORE Personal Foul (#72 I.Laloulu) 15 yards from WIS05 to WIS20
+2.9
TD · Q2 1:07
(01:06) #0 J.Davison rush left for 3 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07 #36 A.Sappington kick attempt good (H: #46 J.Ferguson-Reynolds, LS: #43 L.Basso)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com