Try the model
MINN

Minnesota 3 at Iowa 41

IOWA
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Kinnick Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG—IOWA 72.8%(03:23) #18 D.Stevens field goalattempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #99T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock03:19AWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 3:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:19 · (03:23) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 03:19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense+3.0Score differential+0.4Pregame prior+16.3Blowout margin−0.3Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:06: (10:08) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Minn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:06 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell) — IOWA win probability +1.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:33: (13:41) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep right to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at Minn00, for 29 yards to the Minn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:33, 1ST DOWN #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell) — IOWA win probability +4.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:25: (10:50) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #15 K.Lanier II caught at Minn40, for 20 yards to the Minn48 (#1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWN — MINN win probability +6.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q2 8:52: (08:57) #42 T.Weston punt 55 yards to the Iowa00, Touchback — IOWA win probability +7.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:03: (00:05) #92 B.Denaburg field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #80 A.Soukup), clock 00:03 — MINN win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 8:23MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:03IOWA 4th & 1 at MINN 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:19IOWA 4th & 11 at MINN 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:28MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:23MINN 4th & 21 at MINN 14, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:52MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 21, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:00MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:25IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 42, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:53IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 36, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:46MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 20, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:06IOWA 4th & 14 at MINN 28, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:03MINN 4th & 6 at IOWA 16, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:02IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 31, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:00MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:53IOWA 4th & 9 at MINN 39, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:37MINN 4th & 1 at IOWA 43, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4670% → 72%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush right for 7 yards gain to the Iowa32 (#14 K.Brown)Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+22
70.2%
(14:20) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #21 K.Wetjen caught at Iowa30, for 22 yards to the Minn46 (#4 Z.Bryan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
70.2%
(13:38) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Minn44 (#16 R.Lawrence)Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+11
70.2%
(12:58) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #2 S.Phillips caught at Minn38, for 11 yards to the Minn33 (#3 K.Perich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
70.2%
(12:18) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 1 yard loss to the Minn34 (#17 J.Nestor)Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
70.2%
(11:34) #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete deep middle to #6 S.Anderson thrown to Minn00Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+11
69.9%
(11:29) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #5 J.Gill caught at Minn23, for 11 yards to the Minn23 (#14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+21
70.2%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 21 yards gain to the Minn02 (#6 M.Baranowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.6%
(10:08) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Minn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:06 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3029% → 28%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
71.0%
(09:59) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Minn25 (#49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+4
71.2%
(09:21) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #11 J.Tracy caught at Minn29, for 4 yards to the Minn29 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
71.3%
(08:39) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete deep right to #11 J.Tracy thrown to Iowa40Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+15
71.6%
(08:34) #42 T.Weston punt 48 yards to the Iowa23 #21 K.Wetjen return 15 yards to the Iowa38 (#19 J.Gerlach)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:5872% → 73%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
71.7%
(08:21) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 9 yards gain to the Iowa47 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+28
72.0%
(07:49) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #21 K.Wetjen caught at Minn48, for 28 yards to the Minn25 (#14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
72.3%
(07:05) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 3 yards gain to the Minn22 (#91 D.Eastern)Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
72.4%
(06:28) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Minn17 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
72.3%
(05:44) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Minn16 (#91 D.Eastern)Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
72.1%
(05:08) #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Minn15 (#6 M.Baranowski; #19 J.Gerlach), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
73.0%
(04:17) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush right for 1 yard loss to the Minn16 (#49 M.Kingsbury)Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
73.1%
(03:34) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short middle to #6 S.Anderson thrown to Minn03 broken up by #49 M.KingsburySimilar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
72.8%
(03:30) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short left to #6 S.Anderson thrown to Minn00Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+34
72.8%
(03:23) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 03:19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-34
77.8%
(03:09) #5 D.Lindsey pass intercepted by #6 Z.Lutmer at Minn34 #6 Z.Lutmer return 34 yards to the Minn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:57 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2222% → 21%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
(02:55) #7 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 0 yards to the Minn25 (#96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.0%
(02:19) #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #11 J.Tracy thrown to Minn44Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.3%
(02:13) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #87 D.Biber caught at Minn28, for 7 yards to the Minn32 (#12 J.Rexroth)Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
78.6%
(01:36) #42 T.Weston punt 13 yards to the Minn45, out of bounds at Minn45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:4280% → 87%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
80.4%
(01:21) #11 M.Gronowski rush left for 8 yards gain to the Minn37 (#9 D.Williams; #3 K.Perich)Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-1
80.7%
(00:41) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #21 K.Wetjen caught at Minn38, for 1 yard loss to the Minn38 (#12 D.Green)Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
80.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 3 yards gain to the Minn35 (#16 R.Lawrence), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
82.2%
(14:17) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Minn29 (#12 D.Green)Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+29
86.9%
(13:41) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep right to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at Minn00, for 29 yards to the Minn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:33, 1ST DOWN #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT TD
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:0314% → 7%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.8%
(13:32) #7 F.Ijeboi rush right for 2 yards loss to the Minn23 (#96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-7
86.5%
(12:59) #5 D.Lindsey sacked for loss of 7 yards to the Minn16 (#48 M.Llewellyn), fumble by #5 D.Lindsey recovered by Minn #74 M.Marshall at Minn16, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-2
86.9%
(12:12) #5 D.Lindsey sacked for loss of 2 yards to the Minn14 (#95 A.Graves)Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+50
92.8%
(11:33) #42 T.Weston punt 36 yards to the Minn50 #21 K.Wetjen return 50 yards to the Minn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:23 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:248% → 7%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.5%
(11:21) #7 F.Ijeboi rush left for 3 yards gain to the Minn28 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
86.4%
(10:50) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #15 K.Lanier II caught at Minn40, for 20 yards to the Minn48 (#1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.1%
(10:25) #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #0 L.Brockington thrown to Iowa48Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
85.3%
(10:24) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #0 L.Brockington caught at Minn47, for 8 yards to the Iowa44 (#43 K.Sharar)Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-11
85.8%
(09:43) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey sacked for loss of 11 yards to the Minn45 (#95 A.Graves)Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
93.0%
(08:57) #42 T.Weston punt 55 yards to the Iowa00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4691% → 95%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
91.2%
(08:51) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush left for 1 yard loss to the Iowa19 (#12 D.Green; #89 N.Becker)Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-2
94.6%
(08:12) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #48 Z.Ortwerth caught at Iowa14, for 2 yards loss to the Iowa17 (#9 D.Williams; #1 J.Howard) PENALTY Iowa Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+4
95.0%
(07:17) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #6 S.Anderson caught at Iowa21, for 4 yards to the Iowa21, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
94.9%
(06:59) #9 R.Dakin punt 36 yards to the Minn43, out of bounds at Minn43 PENALTY Minn Holding (#48 M.Carrier) 10 yards from Minn43 to Minn33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:406% → 3%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
93.9%
(06:53) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #86 J.Geers caught at Minn37, for 4 yards to the Minn37 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
95.5%
(06:25) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #7 F.Ijeboi caught at Minn38, for 5 yards to the Minn42 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
95.5%
PENALTY Minn False Start (#73 D.Ray) 5 yards from Minn42 to Minn37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
95.8%
(05:45) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #0 L.Brockington caught at Minn34, for 7 yards to the Minn44 (#1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
96.1%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Minn47 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-2
96.2%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #7 F.Ijeboi caught at Minn42, for 2 yards loss to the Minn45 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
96.6%
(04:12) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #0 L.Brockington thrown to Minn50Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
96.7%
(04:06) #42 T.Weston punt 32 yards to the Iowa23, out of bounds at Iowa23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:2997% → 97%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
97.0%
(03:58) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Iowa24 (#9 D.Williams)Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+8
97.2%
(03:18) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Iowa32 (#3 K.Perich; #6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+14
97.3%
(02:34) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Iowa46 (#4 Z.Bryan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
97.7%
(01:58) #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Iowa42 (#11 K.Menz)Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 14
OWN 42
0
97.8%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush right for 0 yards to the Iowa42 (#9 D.Williams; #93 R.Sunram)Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 14
OWN 42
0
97.6%
(00:40) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short left thrown to Iowa48 QB hurried by #0 A.SmithSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
97.4%
(00:27) #9 R.Dakin punt 32 yards to the Minn26, out of bounds at Minn26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
97.8%
(00:24) #7 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Minn32 (#36 J.Montgomery; #44 K.Merrieweather)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:132% → 1%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.0%
(14:59) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #0 L.Brockington caught at Minn38, for 14 yards to the Minn39 (#2 T.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.5%
(14:18) #7 F.Ijeboi rush right for 3 yards gain to the Minn42 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #2 T.Hall)Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
98.6%
(13:47) #5 D.Lindsey pass intercepted by #2 T.Hall at Iowa17 QB hurried by #91 J.Pace #2 T.Hall return 0 yards to the Iowa17 (#86 J.Geers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:3298% → 99%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
98.4%
(13:36) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #5 J.Gill caught at Iowa17, for 7 yards to the Iowa24 (#4 Z.Bryan; #6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+3
98.5%
(12:55) #4 J.Patterson rush left for 3 yards gain to the Iowa27 (#9 D.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.8%
(12:10) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #25 N.McNeil caught at Iowa24, for 0 yards to the Iowa27 (#17 J.Nestor)Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
98.8%
(11:25) #26 X.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Iowa29 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+7
98.9%
(10:43) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short middle to #5 J.Gill caught at Iowa35, for 7 yards to the Iowa36 (#14 K.Brown)Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
99.1%
(09:58) #9 R.Dakin punt 46 yards to the Minn18 fair catch by #3 K.Perich at Minn18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
99.1%
(09:51) #7 F.Ijeboi rush left for 3 yards gain to the Minn21 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #12 J.Rexroth)Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-9
99.1%
(09:21) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey sacked for loss of 9 yards to the Minn12 (#49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 16
OWN 12
+8
99.2%
(08:39) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #11 J.Tracy caught at Minn18, for 8 yards to the Minn20 (#1 X.Nwankpa; #49 E.Hurkett)Similar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+9
99.3%
(07:55) #42 T.Weston punt 37 yards to the Iowa43 #21 K.Wetjen return 9 yards to the Minn48 (#49 M.Kingsbury), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.5%
(07:45) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Minn43 (#3 K.Perich; #1 J.Howard)Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+19
99.5%
(07:01) #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short right to #48 Z.Ortwerth caught at Minn46, for 19 yards to the Minn24 (#14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
99.5%
(06:18) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Minn28 (#49 M.Kingsbury)Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 14
OPP 28
-1
99.5%
(05:31) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 1 yard loss to the Minn29 (#9 D.Williams; #0 A.Smith)Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+1
99.6%
(04:46) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Minn28 (#17 J.Nestor)Similar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+46
99.5%
(04:10) #18 D.Stevens field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell), clock 04:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:460% → 0%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.6%
(04:04) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #23 C.Davis caught at Minn22, for 8 yards to the Minn33 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.6%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #23 C.Davis caught at Minn33, for 4 yards to the Minn37 (#36 J.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.6%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Davis rush right for 9 yards gain to the Minn46 (#4 K.Entringer) PENALTY Iowa UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#44 K.Merrieweather) 15 yards from Minn46 to Iowa39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
99.7%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #7 F.Ijeboi caught at Iowa46, for 3 yards loss to the Iowa42 (#48 M.Llewellyn)Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+2
99.7%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #0 L.Brockington caught at Iowa43, for 2 yards to the Iowa40 (#1 X.Nwankpa)Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+5
99.7%
PENALTY Iowa Offside (#90 B.Allen) 5 yards from Iowa40 to Iowa35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+15
99.7%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #7 F.Ijeboi thrown to Iowa25 QB hurried by #90 B.Allen, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Iowa Personal Foul (#4 K.Entringer) 15 yards from Iowa35 to Iowa20, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.7%
(01:09) No Huddle #23 C.Davis rush left for 5 yards loss to the Iowa25 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #4 K.Entringer)Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
99.7%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #7 F.Ijeboi thrown to Iowa26Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+9
99.8%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #0 L.Brockington caught at Iowa20, for 9 yards to the Iowa16 (#4 K.Entringer), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:03
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
99.7%
(00:05) #92 B.Denaburg field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #80 A.Soukup), clock 00:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
(00:00) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Gill thrown to Iowa35Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Iowa31 (#3 K.Perich)Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
(14:14) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Gill thrown to Iowa36Similar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
(14:07) #9 R.Dakin punt 39 yards to the Minn30 fair catch by #3 K.Perich at Minn30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.8%
(14:01) No Huddle #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #23 C.Davis thrown to Minn27Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.8%
(13:54) No Huddle #7 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Minn31 (#23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
99.8%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #86 J.Geers thrown to Minn46 broken up by #33 C.BuffingtonSimilar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+6
99.8%
(13:10) #42 T.Weston punt 38 yards to the Iowa31 #21 K.Wetjen return 6 yards to the Iowa37 (#19 J.Gerlach; #80 A.Soukup)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.8%
(12:51) #21 K.Wetjen rush left for 8 yards gain to the Iowa45 (#3 K.Perich)Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+15
99.8%
(12:06) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 15 yards gain to the Minn40 (#6 M.Baranowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.9%
(11:36) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 1 yard loss to the Minn41 (#9 D.Williams)Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
(10:56) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Minn39 (#0 A.Smith; #9 D.Williams)Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
99.9%
(10:10) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass incomplete short right thrown to Minn31Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
99.9%
(10:00) #9 R.Dakin punt 39 yards to the Minn00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
(09:50) No Huddle #7 F.Ijeboi rush right for 0 yards to the Minn20 (#96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
(08:55) No Huddle #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right thrown to Minn28 QB hurried by #55 J.PittmanSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+14
100.0%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #0 L.Brockington caught at Minn34, for 14 yards to the Minn34, out of bounds at Minn34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-26
100.0%
(08:17) No Huddle #5 D.Lindsey pass intercepted by #33 C.Buffington at Minn47 #33 C.Buffington return 26 yards to the Minn21 (#65 G.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.9%
(08:07) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush left for 1 yard gain to the Minn20 (#9 D.Williams; #0 A.Smith)Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+6
99.9%
(07:33) Shotgun #10 J.Hecklinski pass complete short left to #1 K.Parker caught at Minn14, for 6 yards to the Minn14, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
99.9%
(06:49) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Minn08 (#6 M.Baranowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
(06:16) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Minn06 (#11 K.Menz)Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
(05:35) Shotgun #10 J.Hecklinski rush right for 6 yards gain to the Minn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:30 #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:400% → 0%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
(05:28) No Huddle #31 X.Ford rush left for 3 yards gain to the Minn28 (#99 D.Kennedy)Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
100.0%
(04:49) No Huddle #31 X.Ford rush right for 8 yards gain to the Minn36 (#33 C.Buffington; #56 M.Borcherding-Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
100.0%
(04:11) No Huddle #31 X.Ford rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Minn41 (#22 D.Weisskopf; #26 K.Kolarik)Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
(03:38) No Huddle #31 X.Ford rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Minn45 (#31 N.DeLong; #22 D.Weisskopf)Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
100.0%
(03:03) No Huddle #31 X.Ford rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Minn48 (#84 J.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
100.0%
(02:23) No Huddle #31 X.Ford rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Minn50 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 8
50
+6
100.0%
(01:55) No Huddle #21 G.Washington rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Iowa44 (#46 P.Ries)Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
100.0%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 X.Ford rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Iowa43 (#46 P.Ries)Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-1
100.0%
(00:39) No Huddle #31 X.Ford rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Iowa44 (#97 I.Epenesa), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
100.0%
(00:34) Kneel down by #10 J.Hecklinski at Iowa42 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q2 8:52
(08:57) #42 T.Weston punt 55 yards to the Iowa00, Touchback
+7.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 10:25
(10:50) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #15 K.Lanier II caught at Minn40, for 20 yards to the Minn48 (#1 X.Nwankpa), 1ST DOWN
-6.1
TD · Q2 13:33
(13:41) Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete deep right to #15 R.Vander Zee caught at Minn00, for 29 yards to the Minn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:33, 1ST DOWN #18 D.Stevens kick attempt good (H: #99 T.Nissen, LS: #45 B.Worrell)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com