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MICH

Michigan 31 at Michigan State 20

MSU
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:11 · #2 A.Chiles rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU45 (#6 B.Hillman), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior−20.1Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:24: #2 A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:24 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills) — MSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 11:50: No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:50, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr) — MICH win probability +12.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:08: No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 14 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:08, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr) — MICH win probability +9.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:34: #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:34 #2 A.Chiles pass attempt failed — MSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:48: Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 56 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:48, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr) — MICH win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:20MICH 4th & 1 at MSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07MICH 4th & 3 at MSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:02MSU 4th & 18 at MSU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:40MICH 4th & 8 at MSU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:16MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:40MSU 4th & 22 at MSU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:40MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:22MICH 4th & 17 at MICH 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:48MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:53MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:11MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.0%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:39MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:39MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:24MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 30, up 10
    Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:46MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:13MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:01MSU 4th & 3 at MICH 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−1.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−6.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:37MSU 4th & 1 at MICH 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−3.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−5.2
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4617% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.1%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU23, for 8 yards to the MSU33 (#20 J.Hill)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
17.1%
#2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU42 broken up by #20 J.Hill QB hurried by #26 R.BennySimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
17.5%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU34 fumbled by #2 A.Chiles at MSU34 forced by #6 B.Hillman recovered by UM #30 J.Rolder at MSU34, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FG
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:0783% → 81%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
17.4%
Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #1 D.McCulley caught at MSU26, for 9 yards to the MSU25 (#1 N.Martinez)Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
17.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU23 (#55 B.Roberts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
17.4%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU20 (#5 J.Hall; #23 D.Snow)Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
17.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #4 A.Marsh caught at MSU15, for 5 yards to the MSU15 (#7 J.Eaton)Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
18.2%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU14 (#23 D.Snow; #43 M.Spencer)Similar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+8
18.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU06 (#19 A.Smith; #5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
18.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU03 (#9 J.Thompson; #14 M.Bell)Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
18.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short middle to #0 S.Morgan thrown to MSU00 QB hurried by #9 J.ThompsonSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
18.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #1 D.McCulley thrown to MSU00 QB hurried by #28 D.NashSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
19.2%
#96 D.Zvada field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr), clock 10:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:0519% → 19%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.2%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU27 (#30 J.Rolder; #17 E.Etta)Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
19.3%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short middle to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to MSU34Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
19.1%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #1 O.Kelly thrown to MSU45 broken up by #6 B.HillmanSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
19.0%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU27 to MSU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+5
19.0%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#32 E.Young) 5 yards from MSU22 to MSU17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
19.4%
#96 R.Eckley punt 51 yards to the UM32 #0 S.Morgan return 0 yards to the UM32 (#35 S.Edwards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2280% → 80%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
19.7%
Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at UM50, for 22 yards to the MSU46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
19.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep left to #1 D.McCulley thrown to MSU15Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
19.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU44 (#99 Q.Dunnigan)Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
19.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #1 D.McCulley thrown to MSU34 QB hurried by #9 J.ThompsonSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
20.3%
#90 H.Hollenbeck punt 44 yards to the MSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2420% → 20%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
20.2%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU25Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
20.2%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete deep left to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU45Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
20.0%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU32Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
20.0%
#96 R.Eckley punt 43 yards to the UM37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:1880% → 81%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
20.3%
Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 3 yards gain to the UM40 (#9 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+15
20.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep left to #1 D.McCulley thrown to MSU40 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#14 M.Bell) 15 yards from UM40 to MSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
20.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 S.Morgan rush left for 6 yards gain to the MSU39 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
19.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU34 (#10 W.Matthews; #93 J.Satchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
19.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU27 (#1 N.Martinez; #98 D.Simmons)Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
19.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #4 A.Marsh thrown to MSU00Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+14
20.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #22 J.Haynes caught at MSU32, for 14 yards to the MSU13 (#5 J.Hall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
18.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 13 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:58, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 2:1820% → 18%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.5%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU30 (#30 J.Rolder)Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
19.7%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush left for 3 yards gain (3) to the MSU33 (#6 B.Hillman) PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (#72 C.Carter) 15 yards from MSU33 to MSU18Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-12
19.4%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 12 yards to the MSU06 (#30 J.Rolder)Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 29
OWN 6
+7
19.1%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU13 (#6 B.Hillman)Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
18.4%
#96 R.Eckley punt 55 yards to the UM32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
19.3%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UM37 (#16 G.Kelly; #13 I.Smith)Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
19.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UM40 (#23 D.Snow) PENALTY UM Holding (#51 G.Crippen) 10 yards from UM37 to UM27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 15
OWN 27
0
19.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #1 D.McCulley thrown to UM26 broken up by #91 A.VanSumerenSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+5
19.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush right for 5 yards gain to the UM32 (#93 J.Satchell)Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+12
19.9%
#90 H.Hollenbeck punt 53 yards to the MSU15 #1 O.Kelly return 12 yards to the MSU27 (#22 E.Dotson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 6:3619% → 28%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
19.3%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#65 S.Ramil) 5 yards from MSU27 to MSU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+4
19.1%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #1 O.Kelly caught at MSU26, for 4 yards to the MSU26, out of bounds at MSU26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+49
19.2%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush right for 49 yards gain to the UM25 (#15 E.Hausmann), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
20.5%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles rush right for 6 yards gain to the UM19 (#30 J.Rolder), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
20.5%
#4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UM16 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
20.3%
#2 A.Chiles rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UM14 (#44 D.Payne), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
21.3%
#5 M.Frazier rush right for 10 yards gain to the UM04 (#7 T.Metcalf), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.3%
#5 M.Frazier rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UM02 (#95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
21.7%
Shotgun #13 C.McCray rush left for 0 yards to the UM02 (#20 J.Hill) PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (#4 E.Tau-Tolliver) 15 yards from UM02 to UM17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+15
21.0%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #13 C.McCray thrown to UM00 PENALTY UM Pass Interference (#7 T.Metcalf) 15 yards from UM17 to UM02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.3%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM01 (#7 T.Metcalf)Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.3%
#2 A.Chiles rush middle for 0 yards to the UM01 (#44 D.Payne)Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.0%
#2 A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:24 #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -47 yds · 2:0274% → 72%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.0%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UM28 (#9 J.Thompson; #28 D.Nash)Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
25.7%
Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 6 yards gain to the UM34 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-16
25.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Michigan rush middle for 16 yards loss to the UM18 fumbled by Michigan at UM34 recovered by UM #19 B.Underwood at UM18, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
27.7%
#90 H.Hollenbeck punt 45 yards to the MSU37 fair catch by #1 O.Kelly at MSU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3427% → 28%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
26.9%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU39 (#8 D.Moore; #44 D.Payne)Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
27.8%
#5 M.Frazier rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU44 (#8 D.Moore)Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
27.5%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #6 N.Marsh thrown to UM49Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
27.5%
#96 R.Eckley punt 51 yards to the UM05 fair catch by #0 S.Morgan at UM05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5573% → 71%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
27.1%
Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UM09 (#91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+4
27.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UM13 (#5 J.Hall; #91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+4
27.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UM17 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
26.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #1 D.McCulley thrown to UM34Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
27.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 1 yard gain to the UM18 (#10 W.Matthews; #93 J.Satchell)Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+1
27.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #22 J.Haynes caught at UM15, for 1 yard to the UM19 (#93 J.Satchell; #10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
29.4%
#90 H.Hollenbeck punt 47 yards to the MSU34 fair catch by #1 O.Kelly at MSU34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 1:2128% → 28%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
28.1%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU35 (#15 E.Hausmann; #17 E.Etta)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
28.1%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #13 C.McCray thrown to MSU42Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+8
27.1%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #6 N.Marsh caught at MSU46, for 8 yards to the MSU43 (#30 J.Rolder), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
29.0%
#2 A.Chiles rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU45 (#6 B.Hillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.3%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU49Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
30.2%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #7 B.Tullis caught at MSU48, for 6 yards to the UM49, out of bounds at UM49Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-13
31.7%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 13 yards to the MSU38 (#8 D.Moore) PENALTY MSU Intentional Grounding (#2 A.Chiles)Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 17
OWN 38
0
28.4%
#96 R.Eckley punt 45 yards to the UM17 fair catch by #0 S.Morgan at UM17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:0371% → 72%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
28.9%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UM26 (#5 J.Hall; #43 M.Spencer)Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+4
27.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #22 J.Haynes caught at UM26, for 4 yards to the UM30, out of bounds at UM30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
28.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #17 M.Klein caught at UM31, for 4 yards to the UM34 (#10 W.Matthews), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
27.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short middle to #0 S.Morgan thrown to UM47 broken up by #93 J.SatchellSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
28.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UM43 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:1072% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
27.9%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 20 yards gain to the UM49 (#1 N.Martinez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+28
26.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 28 yards gain to the MSU23 (#1 N.Martinez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
25.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU21 (#9 J.Thompson)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
25.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #17 M.Klein thrown to MSU03Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+5
27.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 19 yards to the MSU40 (#14 M.Bell), fumble by #19 B.Underwood recovered by MSU #5 J.Hall at MSU40, End Of Play PENALTY MSU Offside (#14 M.Bell) 5 yards from MSU21 to MSU16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+6
27.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 6 yards gain to the MSU10 (#41 D.Santiago), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
26.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU05 (#91 A.VanSumeren; #99 Q.Dunnigan)Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:50, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1119% → 18%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.1%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU26 (#1 J.Barham; #95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
19.1%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU32, for 10 yards to the MSU36 (#30 J.Rolder), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
19.7%
#2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short right thrown to MSU38 QB hurried by #30 J.RolderSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
19.5%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU38 (#8 D.Moore)Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
19.2%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to UM50 QB hurried by #17 E.EttaSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
18.3%
#96 R.Eckley punt 39 yards to the UM23 fair catch by #0 S.Morgan at UM23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1580% → 80%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
19.7%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 1 yard loss to the UM22 (#14 M.Bell; #10 W.Matthews)Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+1
19.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM23 (#9 J.Thompson)Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+7
20.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 7 yards gain to the UM30 (#23 D.Snow)Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
20.2%
#90 H.Hollenbeck punt 67 yards to the MSU03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3819% → 17%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
18.8%
Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush right for 1 yard gain to the MSU04 (#17 E.Etta)Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+2
18.8%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU06 (#7 T.Metcalf)Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
17.9%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver thrown to MSU09Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 7
OWN 6
+2
16.6%
#96 R.Eckley punt 48 yards to the UM46 #0 S.Morgan return 2 yards to the UM48 (#87 J.Wills; #44 J.Coyne)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:3883% → 93%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
17.4%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU48 (#44 C.Williams)Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
17.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU44 (#16 G.Kelly)Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
17.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU41 (#43 M.Spencer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+27
17.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #4 A.Marsh caught at MSU23, for 27 yards to the MSU14 (#23 D.Snow), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
7.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 14 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:08, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3410% → 19%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
10.2%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU24 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
10.0%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU28, for 9 yards to the MSU33 (#18 T.Bowles), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
10.7%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU32, for 4 yards to the MSU37 (#20 J.Hill), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
10.7%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MSU28 (#4 T.Guy)Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+19
10.0%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #6 N.Marsh caught at MSU41, for 19 yards to the MSU47 (#10 Z.Berry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
11.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #6 N.Marsh caught at UM49, for 4 yards to the UM49 (#20 J.Hill), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
10.1%
#2 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at UM49, for 1 yard to the UM48 (#7 T.Metcalf)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+8
10.0%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UM40 (#6 B.Hillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
10.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UM35 (#26 R.Benny; #6 B.Hillman)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+10
11.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #1 O.Kelly caught at UM30, for 10 yards to the UM25 (#30 J.Rolder), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
11.3%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete deep right to #6 N.Marsh caught at UM02, for 24 yards to the UM01 (#3 J.Mangham), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete deep right to #6 N.Marsh caught at UM02, for 25 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:47, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.3%
#7 B.Tullis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:34 #2 A.Chiles pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:2186% → 88%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
14.4%
Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 2 yards gain to the UM24 (#91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
14.5%
PENALTY UM Encroachment (#17 M.Klein) 5 yards from UM24 to UM19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+1
14.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM20 (#13 I.Smith)Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+7
15.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UM27 (#41 D.Santiago; #23 D.Snow)Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
12.1%
#90 H.Hollenbeck punt 32 yards to the MSU41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:1213% → 13%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
13.3%
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush left for 25 yards gain to the UM34 (#9 C.Brandt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
15.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UM36 (#30 J.Rolder)Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+7
13.8%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #12 J.Velling caught at UM34, for 7 yards to the UM29 (#30 J.Rolder)Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+2
14.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Chiles rush right for 2 yards gain to the UM27 (#25 M.Curtis; #15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
13.2%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short right to #12 J.Velling thrown to UM27 broken up by #1 J.Barham, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:1090% → 92%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
10.2%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UM31 (#88 R.Buckley; #91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
10.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush right for 3 yards gain to the UM34 (#1 N.Martinez) PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#7 J.Eaton) 15 yards from UM34 to UM49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
9.4%
Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU48 (#8 A.Moa)Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-1
9.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MSU49 (#88 R.Buckley)Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+3
7.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU46 fumbled by #22 J.Haynes at MSU46 forced by #41 D.Santiago recovered by MSU #41 D.Santiago at MSU46, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:2210% → 11%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
10.1%
Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #6 N.Marsh caught at UM39, for 16 yards to the UM38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
10.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Chiles pass incomplete short right to #1 O.Kelly thrown to UM25 broken up by #10 Z.BerrySimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
10.6%
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush right for 6 yards gain to the UM32 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
11.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UM29 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
10.5%
No Huddle #2 A.Chiles rush middle for 0 yards to the UM29 (#8 D.Moore; #7 T.Metcalf), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:4992% → 99%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
7.8%
Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UM34 (#9 J.Thompson)Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
7.7%
Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UM38 (#19 A.Smith)Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
7.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UM41 (#43 M.Spencer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
7.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UM44 (#8 A.Moa)Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+56
1.2%
Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 56 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:48, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:411% → 4%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.8%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#72 C.Carter) 5 yards from MSU25 to MSU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
0.8%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#58 C.Moore) 5 yards from MSU20 to MSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
0.8%
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush right for 1 yard gain to the MSU16 (#30 J.Rolder)Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+15
0.8%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #1 O.Kelly caught at MSU31, for 15 yards to the MSU31, out of bounds at MSU31 PENALTY UM Personal Foul (#1 J.Barham) 15 yards from MSU31 to MSU46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.8%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush right for 0 yards to the MSU46, out of bounds at MSU46Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-7
0.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 7 yards to the MSU39 (#8 D.Moore)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+10
0.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MSU36 (#8 D.Moore) PENALTY UM Holding (#2 S.Earls) 10 yards from MSU39 to MSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
0.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #6 N.Marsh caught at UM47, for 4 yards to the UM47 (#22 E.Dotson)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
0.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #1 O.Kelly thrown to UM38Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+15
0.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at UM43, for 15 yards to the UM32 (#9 C.Brandt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
0.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at UM30, for 5 yards to the UM27 (#15 E.Hausmann)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+6
4.5%
No Huddle #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete, Spike PENALTY UM Illegal Substitution 6 yards from UM27 to UM21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
4.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #81 M.Masunas caught at UM04, for 21 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:07, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
3.1%
Kneel down by Michigan at UM44 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:50
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:50, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)
-12.7
TD · Q3 3:08
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 14 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:08, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)
-9.7
TD · Q4 12:34
#7 B.Tullis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:34 #2 A.Chiles pass attempt failed
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com