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MSU

Michigan State 13 at Indiana 38

IU
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:49 · Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 16 yds to the IU 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+23.8Home team on offense+15.9Score differential+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Garbage-time factor+4.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:22: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 15 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK) — MSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:47: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 24 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +7.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:59: Kaelon Black run for 29 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +6.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:09: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:09: Timeout Indiana, clock 13:09 — MSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:19MSU 4th & 1 at IU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:07MSU 4th & 5 at IU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:05MSU 4th & 2 at IU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:46MSU 4th & 9 at IU 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:06IU 4th & 2 at MSU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.8%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:49MSU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:56MSU 4th & 8 at IU 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:50MSU 4th & 18 at MSU 17, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:21IU 4th & 4 at MSU 7, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:59MSU 4th & 13 at IU 23, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:56IU 4th & 1 at MSU 14, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:33MSU 4th & 12 at IU 16, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:40IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:22MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:47IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:59IU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:09IU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:55IU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 6:476% → 8%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
94.2%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 22Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
94.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for no gain to the MSU 22Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+20
93.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 20 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
93.7%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 6 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+9
93.5%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 9 yds to the IU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
93.3%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for no gain to the IU 43Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+9
93.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 9 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+9
93.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 9 yds to the IU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
92.7%
(09:35) PENALTY MSU False Start (Masunas,Michael) 5 yards from IND25 to IND30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
92.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for no gain to the IU 30Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+10
92.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brandon Tullis for 10 yds to the IU 20Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
92.3%
Martin Connington 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1892% → 92%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 2 yds to the IU 23Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
91.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Roman HembySimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+16
91.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 16 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
91.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 7 yds to the IU 46Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+6
91.8%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
91.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 14 yds to the MSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
91.5%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+8
91.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 8 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
91.1%
Kaelon Black run for 7 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+1
91.0%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the MSU 13Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
91.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 8:129% → 15%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.2%
Brandon Tullis run for 5 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
90.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 4 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
90.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 9 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
90.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 13 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
89.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 18 yds to the IU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
89.1%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for a loss of 3 yards to the IU 29Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+10
89.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 10 yds to the IU 19Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+1
88.8%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the IU 18Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+2
89.1%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the IU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
88.1%
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 18Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 12
OPP 18
-10
87.9%
(10:39) Shotgun Chiles,Aidan rush left for 9 yards gain to the IND09 (Ponds,D'Angelo) PENALTY MSU Holding (Moore,Conner) 10 yards from IND18 to IND28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 22
OPP 28
+13
88.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 13 yds to the IU 15Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
84.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 15 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2885% → 90%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the IU 25Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
83.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 19 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
84.2%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 7 yards to the IU 37Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+39
82.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 39 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
89.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 24 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:4711% → 13%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 3 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
88.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 8 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
88.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 23 yds to the IU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
87.0%
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the IU 41Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
86.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 3 yds to the IU 38Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-2
86.7%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 40Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
87.4%
Aidan Chiles punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 1:3688% → 95%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
88.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 24 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
88.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 2 yds to the IU 46Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+10
88.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 10 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
89.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Riley NowakowskiSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
88.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 8 yds to the MSU 36Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
88.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Elijah SarrattSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+7
87.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 7 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
94.6%
Kaelon Black run for 29 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7END OF HALF
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:507% → 9%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
93.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 5 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
93.1%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
92.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 9 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
92.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 2 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
91.0%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Stephen Daley for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4492% → 96%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 12 yds to the IU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
92.0%
Fernando Mendoza run for 3 yds to the IU 40Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+11
92.2%
(13:53) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short right to Cooper Jr.,Omar thrown to IND50, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Nash,Dontavius) 11 yard from IND40 to MSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
92.3%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MSU 48Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+48
96.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:596% → 5%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
94.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 16 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
94.1%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 1 yd to the MSU 43Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
94.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 8 yds to the IU 49Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-1
93.7%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 2
50
+16
94.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 16 yds to the IU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for no gain to the IU 34Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
94.1%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
94.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
94.7%
Martin Connington 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:5297% → 100%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
97.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 7 yds to the IU 39Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
97.1%
Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
97.2%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the IU 47Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
97.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
97.1%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
97.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+11
97.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 11 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 27 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:572% → 2%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 9 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
97.8%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass complete short left to Kelly,Omari caught at MSU32, for 2 yards to the MSU36 (Sharpe,Jamari; Fisher,Aiden) PENALTY MSU Holding (Marsh,Nick) 10 yards from MSU34 to MSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-10
98.0%
(03:06) Shotgun Chiles,Aidan rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU26 (Tucker,Tyrique) PENALTY MSU Holding (Frazier,Makhi) 10 yards from MSU24 to MSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+3
97.9%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 17Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
98.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+16
98.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 16 yds to the IU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:22100% → 100%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
99.7%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
99.7%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.7%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the MSU 36Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
99.7%
(15:00) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short left to Cooper Jr.,Omar caught at MSU22, for 14 yards to the MSU22 (Eaton,Joshua), out of bounds PENALTY IND Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Smith,Carter) 5 yards from MSU36 to MSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+7
99.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 7 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+21
99.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 21 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
99.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 14Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Khobie Martin run for no gain to the MSU 14Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+7
99.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 7 yds to the MSU 7Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 4
OPP 7
0
99.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to E.J. Williams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:192% → 1%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+8
98.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Bryson Williams for 8 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+64
99.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 64 yds to the IU 20 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by MSU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-11
99.1%
Michigan State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Aidan Chiles) to the IU 31Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 21
OPP 31
+8
99.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 8 yds to the IU 23Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 13
OPP 23
-9
99.3%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Stephen Daley for a loss of 9 yards to the IU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:57100% → 100%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the IU 36Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
99.8%
Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the IU 41Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 1 yd to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 3 yds to the IU 45Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 7 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 3 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+22
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 22 yds to the MSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the MSU 20Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
99.9%
Khobie Martin run for 5 yds to the MSU 15Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 1 yd to the MSU 14Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+31
100.0%
Nico Radicic 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Alessio Milivojevic run for 11 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
100.0%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 10 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
100.0%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Evan Boyd for 18 yds to the IU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
100.0%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Evan Boyd for 22 yds to the IU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
100.0%
Alessio Milivojevic sacked by Rolijah Hardy for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 16Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 12
OPP 16
0
100.0%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Rodney Bullard Jr.Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 12
OPP 16
0
100.0%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+34
99.6%
Martin Connington 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
99.9%
F. Mendoza takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:47
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 24 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q2 0:59
Kaelon Black run for 29 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q3 13:09
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com