2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreOSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:41 · Danny O'Neil pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 5 yds to the OSU 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:04: Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 10 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:00: Timeout Wisconsin, clock 01:00 — WIS win probability +2.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:55: Timeout Wisconsin, clock 00:55 — OSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:42: Jayden Fielding 37 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:15: Julian Sayin pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 9OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 12:59WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, tiedClose callPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:40OSU 4th & 7 at WIS 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.2%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call90.3%75% to makePunt89.6%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:45WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q2 7:51WIS 4th & 22 at OSU 45, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.6%−0.48% to convertField goal8.8%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call9.0%average punt
- Q2 6:58OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 22, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snapGo for it92.0%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.1%average punt
- Q2 5:30WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 38, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.5%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q2 1:07OSU 4th & 4 at WIS 20, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.0%−0.147% to convertField goalTheir call93.1%75% to makePunt90.7%−2.5average punt
- Q2 0:04WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 29, down 17Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:29OSU 4th & 4 at WIS 43, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.9%48% to convertField goal91.7%−1.228% to makePunt92.2%−0.7average punt
- Q3 8:42OSU 4th & 4 at WIS 18, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call92.5%−0.179% to makePunt88.9%−3.6average punt
- Q3 7:36WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 30, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q3 5:13OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 26, up 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.9%−0.9average punt
- Q4 15:00WIS 4th & 19 at WIS 16, down 27Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%−0.610% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.6%average punt
- Q4 11:07WIS 4th & 16 at WIS 40, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 0:41WIS 4th & 5 at OSU 20, down 34Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goal0.1%75% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 8:25OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:04OSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:15OSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:35OSU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:576% → 6%
Q1 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
6.2%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Eugene Hilton Jr. for 5 yds to the WIS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD11 plays · 89 yds · 4:2694% → 93%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
6.4%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the OSU 17Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+15
6.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 15 yds to the OSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
6.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 5 yds to the OSU 37Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
6.8%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 10 yds to the OSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+16
7.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 16 yds to the WIS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-5
7.5%
(09:19) PENALTY OSU False Start (Tshabola,Tegra) 5 yards from WIS33 to WIS38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+5
7.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 5 yds to the WIS 33Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+33
7.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 33 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3INT4 plays · 19 yds · 0:507% → 8%
OSUDrive 4FG7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1493% → 92%
Q1 6:36
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+14
7.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 14 yds to the WIS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:488% → 8%
Q1 2:45
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+13
7.8%
Sean West punt for 52 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 13 yds to the OSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD6 plays · 70 yds · 2:3792% → 94%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
8.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 27 yds to the WIS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
8.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 14 yds to the WIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
6.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 10 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT13 plays · 29 yds · 7:057% → 8%
Q2 14:22
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+10
6.8%
(14:26) Shotgun Simmons,Hunter pass incomplete short right to Anthony II,Vinny thrown to WIS34 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Sanchez,Devin) 10 yards from WIS25 to WIS35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
7.1%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 7 yds to the WIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
7.4%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Dilin Jones for 2 yds to the WIS 43Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+24
7.1%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 24 yds to the OSU 33 for a 1ST down Ohio State Penalty, Defensive Offside (John Ferlmann) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
7.6%
Hunter Simmons sacked by Arvell Reese for a loss of 7 yards to the OSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:4793% → 93%
WISDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:248% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10MISSED FG11 plays · 60 yds · 4:1694% → 94%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
6.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 10 yds to the OSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
6.4%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 9 yds to the OSU 39Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+8
6.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 8 yds to the OSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
6.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Mylan Graham for 10 yds to the WIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
6.0%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Inniss,Brandon) 5 yards from WIS43 to WIS48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+8
6.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Quincy Porter for 8 yds to the WIS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:008% → 7%
Q2 0:04
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
6.8%
Sean West punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13FG12 plays · 57 yds · 6:1493% → 97%
Q3 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
6.8%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 5 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
6.9%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 16 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+19
6.8%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 19 yds to the WIS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
6.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 7 yds to the WIS 17Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-5
6.1%
(09:58) PENALTY OSU False Start (Daniels,Phillip) 5 yards from WIS21 to WIS26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+8
6.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 8 yds to the WIS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:035% → 5%
OSUDrive 15TD13 plays · 83 yds · 6:1597% → 99%
Q3 6:23
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-4
3.6%
Julian Sayin sacked by Omillio Agard for a loss of 4 yards to the OSU 12Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+14
3.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 14 yds to the OSU 26Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+16
2.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 16 yds to the OSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+22
2.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Quincy Porter for 22 yds to the WIS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.8%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT13 plays · 15 yds · 5:041% → 0%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-11
1.4%
Hunter Simmons sacked by Caden Curry for a loss of 11 yards to the WIS 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-5
1.5%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Kenyatta Jackson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the WIS 40Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 16
OWN 40
+18
0.4%
Sean West punt for 55 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 18 yds to the OSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD11 plays · 77 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+26
0.4%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 26 yds to the OSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
0.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to James Peoples for 5 yds to the WIS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 13 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 50 yds · 4:540% → 0%
Q4 0:41
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+5
0.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 5 yds to the OSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 8:42
Jayden Fielding 37 yd FG GOOD
-3
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:55
Timeout Wisconsin, clock 00:55
-2.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:00
Timeout Wisconsin, clock 01:00
+2.7