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PSU

Penn State 24 at Iowa 25

IOWA
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:14 · Gabriel Nwosu punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PSU 35 , Kaden Wetjen returns for 25 yds to the PSU 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense−1.1Score differential−0.9Pregame prior+2.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:14: Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +13.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:25: Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:19: Mark Gronowski run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — IOWA win probability +13.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 4:56: Ryan Barker 32 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:54: Kaden Wetjen run for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — IOWA win probability +42.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:47PSU 4th & 4 at IOWA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45PSU 4th & 1 at IOWA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:24IOWA 4th & 6 at PSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:14PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 18, up 4
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:29IOWA 4th & 3 at PSU 28, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%−0.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:41PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:30IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:50IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 39, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:47PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:12PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 40, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.8%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:17IOWA 4th & 4 at PSU 13, down 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−18.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:56PSU 4th & 14 at IOWA 14, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−8.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−26.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:14PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.9%−5.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:45PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:14IOWA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:00PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:25PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:19IOWA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:54IOWA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.1 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.7%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4353% → 53%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.2%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the IOWA 28Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
53.3%
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Kaden WetjenSimilar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
53.2%
Mark Gronowski pass intercepted Zakee Wheatley return for 2 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:1747% → 49%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
53.1%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the IOWA 35Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
53.1%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 5 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+1
53.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the IOWA 29Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+9
53.4%
Ethan Grunkemeyer run for 9 yds to the IOWA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
53.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the IOWA 13Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+3
53.0%
Jaxon Smolik run for 3 yds to the IOWA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
53.0%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
53.0%
Trebor Pena run for 9 yds to the IOWA 1Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.2%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Andrew RappleyeaSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.5%
(09:04) Shotgun Allen,Kaytron rush middle for 0 yards to the Iowa01 (Nwankpa,Xavier; Hurkett,Ethan) PENALTY Iowa Offside. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:0951% → 53%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.3%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 12 yds to the IOWA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
51.4%
Kamari Moulton run for 8 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
51.8%
Kamari Moulton run for 8 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
51.8%
Kamari Moulton run for 9 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+13
51.7%
Kamari Moulton run for 13 yds to the PSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
52.0%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
52.0%
Xavier Williams run for 4 yds to the PSU 21Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
51.4%
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Reece Vander ZeeSimilar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
52.8%
Drew Stevens 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5748% → 47%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
52.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PSU 18Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 2
OWN 18
0
52.2%
Ethan Grunkemeyer run for no gain to the PSU 18Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
52.7%
Jaxon Smolik run for no gain to the PSU 18Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+25
53.0%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PSU 35 , Kaden Wetjen returns for 25 yds to the PSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4554% → 53%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
54.1%
(02:12) PENALTY Iowa False Start (Large,Hayden) 5 yards from PSU35 to PSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
52.9%
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Sam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+2
52.7%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Seth Anderson for 2 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+10
52.3%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 10 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
52.6%
Drew Stevens 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:1948% → 47%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
51.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
51.7%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Trebor PenaSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-9
52.4%
Penn State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-9 Yards) to the PSU 21Similar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 17
OWN 21
0
53.1%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0452% → 51%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
52.0%
Kaden Wetjen run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 31Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+2
51.6%
Kamari Moulton run for 2 yds to the IOWA 33Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+3
50.9%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Xavier Williams for 3 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
50.7%
Rhys Dakin punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the PSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8INT
12 plays · 52 yds · 6:0849% → 52%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
51.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 15Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
51.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 18Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+4
51.8%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the PSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
51.0%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Trebor Pena for 13 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
50.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 36Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+14
50.0%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Koby Howard for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
50
+3
48.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the IOWA 47Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
47.7%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 4 yds to the IOWA 43Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+7
47.7%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 7 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
47.2%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
47.2%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 2 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
48.1%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass intercepted Deshaun Lee return for no gain to the IOWA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:1749% → 48%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
49.0%
Nathan McNeil run for 1 yd to the IOWA 5Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+4
48.8%
Nathan McNeil run for 4 yds to the IOWA 9Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+10
47.6%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Xavier Williams for 10 yds to the IOWA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
49.2%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Seth Anderson for 4 yds to the IOWA 23Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
49.3%
Kamari Moulton run for 7 yds to the IOWA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
49.3%
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
50.8%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 36Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
49.5%
Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds to the IOWA 39Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
48.1%
Rhys Dakin punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:1754% → 53%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.1%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 24Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-28
47.2%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass intercepted Xavier Nwankpa return for 28 yds to the PSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0849% → 62%
Q2 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.0%
Mark Gronowski run for no gain to the PSU 1Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.4%
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2041% → 40%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 26Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
59.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
59.1%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
60.5%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13MISSED FG TD
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:3559% → 57%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.0%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 2 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
59.0%
Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (Dominic DeLuca) to the IOWA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
61.7%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 8 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
62.3%
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Seth AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+35
56.6%
Elliot Washington II 35 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2853% → 72%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.6%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Devonte RossSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
46.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 30 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
43.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the IOWA 42Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
43.6%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the IOWA 42Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+11
44.0%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the IOWA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
42.2%
Jaxon Smolik run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 34Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 13
OPP 34
-1
42.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 35Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 14
OPP 35
+15
45.1%
(10:55) Shotgun Grunkemeyer,Ethan pass incomplete deep middle to Ross,Devonte thrown to Iowa00 PENALTY Iowa Pass Interference (Entringer,Koen) 15 yards from Iowa35 to Iowa20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
41.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the IOWA 12Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+4
41.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the IOWA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
27.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:4830% → 45%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
30.0%
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the IOWA 31Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
30.0%
Kaden Wetjen run for 2 yds to the IOWA 33Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+38
28.8%
Mark Gronowski run for 38 yds to the PSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
33.0%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 9 yds to the PSU 20Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+11
32.7%
Kamari Moulton run for 11 yds to the PSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
32.3%
Kamari Moulton run for no gain to the PSU 9Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
31.3%
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the PSU 4Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.9%
Mark Gronowski run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:4063% → 66%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.5%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for no gain to the PSU 20Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
37.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
37.2%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Trebor Pena for 4 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
36.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 37Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
33.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 38Similar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
32.8%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Trebor Pena for 2 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
34.4%
Luke Reynolds run for no gain to the PSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4344% → 52%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
43.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 21 yds to the PSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
45.4%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the PSU 16Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-5
45.3%
Kamari Moulton run for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 21Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+8
41.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Hayden Large for 8 yds to the PSU 13Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
51.8%
Drew Stevens 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18FG
17 plays · 61 yds · 8:1457% → 78%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
40.7%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
42.6%
Ethan Grunkemeyer run for 6 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
40.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
38.0%
Jaxon Smolik run for 3 yds to the PSU 49 Jaxon Smolik fumbled, recovered by PSU Kyron Hudson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
38.1%
Ethan Grunkemeyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 48 Ethan Grunkemeyer fumbled, recovered by PSU Ethan GrunkemeyerSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
39.2%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+12
40.8%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Andrew Rappleyea for 12 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
37.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the IOWA 34Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+13
35.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the IOWA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
34.8%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 7 yds to the IOWA 14Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+4
33.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the IOWA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
33.0%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Trebor PenaSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
33.0%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the IOWA 10Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
32.9%
Ethan Grunkemeyer run for a loss of 4 yards to the IOWA 14Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
21.6%
Ryan Barker 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4629% → 72%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+67
28.9%
Mark Gronowski run for 67 yds to the PSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
71.5%
Kaden Wetjen run for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 2:1839% → 36%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
60.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 26Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+6
60.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
60.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 33Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+10
63.7%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 10 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
59.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
60.1%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 2 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+1
60.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 49Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
64.0%
Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Trebor PenaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0881% → 88%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
80.7%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
79.7%
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd to the PSU 45Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+14
76.9%
Mark Gronowski run for 14 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
87.5%
M. Gronowski takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:54
Kaden Wetjen run for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+42.6
TD · Q3 9:25
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q3 4:19
Mark Gronowski run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com