YardLine - College football win probability

PSU

Penn State 24 at Iowa 25

IOWA

2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Kinnick Stadium

Win probability · IOWA

modelIOWA aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey play

What moved it - hover a play below

Q4 0:00 · M. Gronowski takes a knee

IOWA has the ball

+17

Blowout context favors the offense

Market gave IOWA a 59% pregame chance

−2

IOWA leading by 1

Play by play - hover to pin the curve

Q1 15:00

Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

0.0

Q1 14:54

Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the IOWA 28

+2.3

Q1 14:17

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Kaden Wetjen

+0.3

Q1 14:11

Mark Gronowski pass intercepted Zakee Wheatley return for 2 yds to the IOWA 35

0.0

Q1 14:02

Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the IOWA 35

-5.8

Q1 13:16

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 5 yds to the IOWA 30

0.0

Q1 12:41

Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the IOWA 29

0.0

Q1 11:47

Ethan Grunkemeyer run for 9 yds to the IOWA 20 for a 1ST down

+0.8

Q1 11:08

Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the IOWA 13

-0.8

Q1 10:27

Jaxon Smolik run for 3 yds to the IOWA 10 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 9:56

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kyron Hudson

0.0

Q1 9:44

Trebor Pena run for 9 yds to the IOWA 1

0.0

Q1 9:10

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Andrew Rappleyea

+0.1

Q1 9:04

(09:04) Shotgun Allen,Kaytron rush middle for 0 yards to the Iowa01 (Nwankpa,Xavier; Hurkett,Ethan) PENALTY Iowa Offside. NO PLAY.

+0.8

Q1 8:45

Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)

-16.3

Q1 8:45

Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+1.0

Q1 8:33

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 12 yds to the IOWA 37 for a 1ST down

+3.9

Q1 7:52

Kamari Moulton run for 8 yds to the IOWA 45

+0.1

Q1 7:16

Kamari Moulton run for 8 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST down

+0.6

Q1 6:40

Kamari Moulton run for 9 yds to the PSU 38

+1.3

Q1 5:55

Kamari Moulton run for 13 yds to the PSU 25 for a 1ST down

+0.9

Q1 5:15

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

0.0

Q1 5:05

Xavier Williams run for 4 yds to the PSU 21

0.0

Q1 4:29

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Reece Vander Zee

-0.2

Q1 4:24

Drew Stevens 39 yd FG GOOD

+8.7

Q1 4:18

Drew Stevens kickoff for 56 yds , Cam Wallace return for 1 yd to the PSU 10

-2.2

Q1 4:11

Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PSU 18

-4.4

Q1 3:33

Ethan Grunkemeyer run for no gain to the PSU 18

0.0

Q1 2:47

Jaxon Smolik run for no gain to the PSU 18

0.0

Q1 2:14

Gabriel Nwosu punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PSU 35 , Kaden Wetjen returns for 25 yds to the PSU 35

0.0

Q1 2:14

(02:12) PENALTY Iowa False Start (Large,Hayden) 5 yards from PSU35 to PSU40. NO PLAY.

+7.3

Q1 2:08

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Sam Phillips

0.0

Q1 1:56

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Seth Anderson for 2 yds to the PSU 38

-0.2

Q1 1:03

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 10 yds to the PSU 28

-0.3

Q1 0:29

Drew Stevens 46 yd FG MISSED

-0.4

Q1 0:00

Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 30

-6.7

Q2 14:56

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Trebor Pena

0.0

Q2 14:49

Penn State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-9 Yards) to the PSU 21

0.0

Q2 14:41

Gabriel Nwosu punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 34

0.0

Q2 14:34

Kaden Wetjen run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 31

+4.4

Q2 13:49

Kamari Moulton run for 2 yds to the IOWA 33

0.0

Q2 13:10

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Xavier Williams for 3 yds to the IOWA 36

0.0

Q2 12:30

Rhys Dakin punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the PSU 10

0.0

Q2 12:22

Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 15

-4.4

Q2 11:45

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 18

+0.1

Q2 11:06

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the PSU 22 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 10:41

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Trebor Pena for 13 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST down

-0.9

Q2 10:09

Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 36

0.0

Q2 9:23

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Koby Howard for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

-0.7

Q2 8:45

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the IOWA 47

-1.2

Q2 8:05

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 4 yds to the IOWA 43

-2.0

Q2 7:29

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 7 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST down

-0.1

Q2 7:04

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kyron Hudson

0.0

Q2 6:51

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 2 yds to the IOWA 38

0.0

Q2 6:14

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass intercepted Deshaun Lee return for no gain to the IOWA 4

0.0

Q2 6:07

Nathan McNeil run for 1 yd to the IOWA 5

+7.4

Q2 5:42

Nathan McNeil run for 4 yds to the IOWA 9

+0.1

Q2 4:55

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Xavier Williams for 10 yds to the IOWA 19 for a 1ST down

+0.1

Q2 4:25

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Seth Anderson for 4 yds to the IOWA 23

0.0

Q2 3:58

Kamari Moulton run for 7 yds to the IOWA 30 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 3:24

Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the IOWA 35

0.0

Q2 2:56

Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 36

0.0

Q2 2:06

Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds to the IOWA 39

-0.2

Q2 2:00

Timeout Iowa, clock 02:00

+0.3

Q2 1:50

Rhys Dakin punt for 61 yds for a touchback

0.0

Q2 1:45

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Nicholas Singleton

-7.7

Q2 1:37

Timeout Iowa, clock 01:37

0.0

Q2 1:37

Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 24

0.0

Q2 1:28

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass intercepted Xavier Nwankpa return for 28 yds to the PSU 1

0.0

Q2 1:22

Timeout Iowa, clock 01:22

+10.3

Q2 1:22

Mark Gronowski run for no gain to the PSU 1

0.0

Q2 1:14

Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)

+15.0

Q2 1:14

Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-1.6

Q2 1:07

Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 26

-2.1

Q2 1:07

Timeout Iowa, clock 01:07

0.0

Q2 1:01

Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PSU 31

0.0

Q2 0:55

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kyron Hudson

0.0

Q2 0:47

Gabriel Nwosu punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 25

0.0

Q2 0:35

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 2 yds to the IOWA 27

+0.7

Q2 0:22

Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (Dominic DeLuca) to the IOWA 44 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q2 0:10

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 8 yds to the PSU 48

+0.8

Q2 0:10

Timeout Iowa, clock 00:10

+0.5

Q2 0:06

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Seth Anderson

0.0

Q2 0:06

Timeout Iowa, clock 00:06

+1.3

Q2 0:00

Elliot Washington II 35 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Ryan Barker Kick)

-13.9

Q3 15:00

Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-3.7

Q3 14:53

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Devonte Ross

-5.3

Q3 14:40

Kaytron Allen run for 30 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 14:01

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the IOWA 42

-1.9

Q3 13:18

Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the IOWA 42

-0.3

Q3 12:32

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the IOWA 31 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 11:54

Jaxon Smolik run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 34

0.0

Q3 11:13

Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 35

-1.4

Q3 10:53

(10:55) Shotgun Grunkemeyer,Ethan pass incomplete deep middle to Ross,Devonte thrown to Iowa00 PENALTY Iowa Pass Interference (Entringer,Koen) 15 yards from Iowa35 to Iowa20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

0.0

Q3 10:46

Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the IOWA 12

0.0

Q3 10:06

Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the IOWA 8 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 9:25

Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)

-18.5

Q3 9:18

Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds , Kaden Wetjen return for 26 yds to the IOWA 26

+1.2

Q3 9:07

Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the IOWA 31

+2.8

Q3 8:38

Kaden Wetjen run for 2 yds to the IOWA 33

0.0

Q3 7:38

Mark Gronowski run for 38 yds to the PSU 29 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 6:55

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 9 yds to the PSU 20

+1.1

Q3 6:18

Kamari Moulton run for 11 yds to the PSU 9 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 5:35

Kamari Moulton run for no gain to the PSU 9

0.0

Q3 4:52

Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the PSU 4

-2.0

Q3 4:19

Mark Gronowski run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

+20.4

Q3 4:13

Drew Stevens kickoff for 64 yds , Corey Smith return for 19 yds to the PSU 20

-3.0

Q3 3:52

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for no gain to the PSU 20

-8.5

Q3 3:26

Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the PSU 27

0.0

Q3 2:46

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Trebor Pena for 4 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 2:15

Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 37

0.0

Q3 1:39

Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 38

-3.1

Q3 0:43

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Trebor Pena for 2 yds to the PSU 40

-0.8

Q3 0:12

Luke Reynolds run for no gain to the PSU 40

+0.3

Q3 0:00

Kamari Moulton run for 21 yds to the PSU 19 for a 1ST down

+14.0

Q4 14:51

Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the PSU 16

0.0

Q4 14:29

Kamari Moulton run for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 21

0.0

Q4 13:48

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Hayden Large for 8 yds to the PSU 13

-0.2

Q4 13:17

Drew Stevens 31 yd FG GOOD

+7.5

Q4 13:17

Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-2.2

Q4 13:10

Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 31

-4.9

Q4 12:33

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kaytron Allen

0.0

Q4 12:21

Ethan Grunkemeyer run for 6 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 11:41

Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the PSU 46

-0.5

Q4 10:22

Jaxon Smolik run for 3 yds to the PSU 49 Jaxon Smolik fumbled, recovered by PSU Kyron Hudson for a 1ST down

-1.5

Q4 9:45

Ethan Grunkemeyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 48 Ethan Grunkemeyer fumbled, recovered by PSU Ethan Grunkemeyer

-1.4

Q4 9:43

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Kyron Hudson

0.0

Q4 9:29

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Andrew Rappleyea for 12 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST down

-0.7

Q4 8:56

Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the IOWA 34

-0.1

Q4 8:14

Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the IOWA 21 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 7:27

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 7 yds to the IOWA 14

0.0

Q4 6:55

Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the IOWA 10 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 6:18

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Trebor Pena

-1.4

Q4 6:09

Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the IOWA 10

0.0

Q4 5:24

Ethan Grunkemeyer run for a loss of 4 yards to the IOWA 14

-3.1

Q4 4:56

Ryan Barker 32 yd FG GOOD

-12.4

Q4 4:56

Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+0.7

Q4 4:40

Mark Gronowski run for 67 yds to the PSU 8 for a 1ST down

+6.4

Q4 3:54

Kaden Wetjen run for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

+36.5

Q4 3:48

Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds , Corey Smith return for 22 yds to the PSU 22

-1.6

Q4 3:32

Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 26

-6.1

Q4 2:56

Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 2:28

Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 33

0.0

Q4 2:09

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 10 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST down

+1.7

Q4 2:00

Timeout Iowa, clock 02:00

-0.6

Q4 1:51

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 46

+0.7

Q4 1:35

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 2 yds to the PSU 48

+1.2

Q4 1:28

Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 49

0.0

Q4 1:22

Timeout Iowa, clock 01:22

+0.3

Q4 1:14

Ethan Grunkemeyer pass incomplete to Trebor Pena

0.0

Q4 1:08

Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the PSU 46

+11.3

Q4 1:08

Timeout Iowa, clock 01:08

-0.1

Q4 1:01

Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd to the PSU 45

0.0

Q4 1:01

Timeout Iowa, clock 01:01

+0.1

Q4 0:44

Mark Gronowski run for 14 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST down

+0.5

Q4 0:00

M. Gronowski takes a knee

+13.0

Biggest swings

TD · Q4 3:54

Kaden Wetjen run for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

+36.5

TD · Q3 4:19

Mark Gronowski run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

+20.4

TD · Q3 9:25

Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)

-18.5