2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scorePUR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:01 · Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:13: Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +4.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:38: Jack Olsen 38 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +6.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:54: Caleb Komolafe run for 6 yds to the NU 14 — NU win probability +2.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:01: Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NU win probability +6.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:49: Malachi Singleton pass incomplete to Corey Smith — PUR win probability +2.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 7:45NU 4th & 4 at PUR 9, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snapGo for it60.5%43% to convertField goalTheir call60.5%−<0.189% to makePunt59.4%−1.1average punt
- Q1 6:23PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snapGo for it38.1%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.2%average punt
- Q2 10:42PUR 4th & 14 at PUR 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it29.4%−1.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%average punt
- Q2 8:38NU 4th & 10 at PUR 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snapGo for it67.5%−1.328% to convertField goalTheir call68.7%75% to makePunt62.8%−5.9average punt
- Q2 5:28PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 30, down 13Close callPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it23.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:36NU 4th & 10 at NU 49, up 13Close callWent for it · 79.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.8%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt79.2%average punt
- Q2 1:00PUR 4th & 3 at NU 46, down 13Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snapGo for it22.2%52% to convertField goal21.4%−0.923% to makePuntTheir call21.6%−0.6average punt
- Q3 11:35PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 32, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snapGo for it18.8%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q3 7:35NU 4th & 1 at PUR 38, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.6%70% to convertField goal81.3%−3.438% to makePunt81.3%−3.4average punt
- Q3 0:00PUR 4th & 3 at NU 30, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%52% to convertField goal5.5%−0.856% to makePunt4.4%−2.0average punt
- Q4 14:00NU 4th & 12 at NU 26, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.2%−1.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q4 8:44PUR 4th & 2 at NU 17, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.7%56% to convertField goal3.6%−0.180% to makePunt0.8%−2.9average punt
- Q4 7:27NU 4th & 7 at NU 20, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q4 2:21NU 4th & 8 at PUR 8, up 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%90% to makePunt97.7%−1.1average punt
- Q4 0:56PUR 4th & 6 at NU 26, down 19Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−0.139% to convertField goal1.4%64% to makePunt0.7%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 13:13NU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.4%97% to makeGo for two68.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:01NU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick93.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call93.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNUDrive 1FG16 plays · 66 yds · 7:0961% → 62%
PURDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1638% → 38%
NUDrive 3TD17 plays · 74 yds · 8:0462% → 68%
Q1 4:41
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+8
61.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 8 yds to the NU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-5
62.6%
PENALTY NU Illegal Snap (Carsello,Jackson) 5 yards from NU43 to NU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+15
61.9%
(03:30) Shotgun Stone,Preston pass incomplete deep left to Eligon II,Hayden thrown to PUR41 broken up by Grimes,Tony PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (Grimes,Tony) 15 yards from NU38 to PUR47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+7
62.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 7 yds to the PUR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+7
62.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Drew Wagner for 7 yds to the PUR 31Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+15
62.1%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Stone,Preston pass incomplete short middle to Ahumaraeze,Ricky thrown to PUR15 QB hurried by Powell,Mani PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (Hines,Hudauri) 15 yards from PUR32 to PUR17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2033% → 31%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
67.1%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan pass incomplete short right to Jackson III,Michael thrown to PUR45 broken up by Uihlein,Mac PENALTY PUR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Purvis,Hank) 5 yards from PUR34 to PUR29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+8
67.4%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 8 yds to the PUR 37Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-10
66.6%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan rush left for 7 yards gain to the PUR47 (Turner,Braden), out of bounds PENALTY PUR Holding (Tanona,Joey) 10 yards from PUR40 to PUR30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+5
69.3%
Jack McCallister punt for 55 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 5 yds to the NU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5FG8 plays · 60 yds · 1:5467% → 75%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+50
67.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 35 yds to the PUR 45 for a 1ST down Purdue Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Hershey McLaurin) to the PUR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0426% → 25%
Q2 7:51
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
74.2%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 4 yds to the PUR 21Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
74.6%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 4 yds to the PUR 27Similar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+1
75.3%
Jack McCallister punt for 44 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 1 yd to the NU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7DOWNS10 plays · 26 yds · 3:4776% → 78%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
78.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 6 yds to the NU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3024% → 24%
NUDrive 9END OF HALF4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5479% → 80%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
79.8%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Stone,Preston pass incomplete short right thrown to NU31 QB hurried by Nunnally,CJ PENALTY NU Holding (Lewis,Martes) 10 yards from NU27 to NU17. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 3:1720% → 18%
NUDrive 11TD14 plays · 76 yds · 7:2184% → 95%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
83.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 15 yds to the NU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+11
85.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Lawson Albright for 11 yds to the PUR 38Similar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
86.3%
(07:17) Shotgun Stone,Preston pass incomplete deep left to Wilde,Griffin thrown to PUR10 PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (Hines,Hudauri) 15 yards from PUR35 to PUR20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
88.4%
PENALTY NU False Start (Lewis,Martes) 5 yards from PUR06 to PUR11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
95.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12DOWNS10 plays · 36 yds · 3:498% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5497% → 97%
Q4 14:00
4TH & 12
OWN 26
+24
96.8%
Luke Akers punt for 44 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 24 yds to the PUR 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14FUMBLE3 plays · 50 yds · 0:465% → 4%
NUDrive 15FUMBLE3 plays · 55 yds · 1:0497% → 98%
PURDrive 16DOWNS6 plays · 55 yds · 2:574% → 4%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
96.0%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 26 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
96.0%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to EJ Horton Jr. for 21 yds to the NU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
95.5%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 4 yds to the NU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1298% → 98%
Q4 7:27
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
98.0%
Luke Akers punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the PUR 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:083% → 3%
NUDrive 19INT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4898% → 99%
PURDrive 20FUMBLE5 plays · 29 yds · 1:132% → 2%
Q4 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+26
98.1%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 26 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-3
98.0%
Malachi Singleton sacked by Anto Saka for a loss of 3 yards to the PUR 45 Malachi Singleton fumbled, recovered by NU Brendan Flakes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21MISSED FG6 plays · 37 yds · 2:1799% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 54 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.6%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Jesse Watson for 6 yds to the PUR 26Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+20
98.5%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Rico Walker for 20 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
98.5%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to EJ Horton Jr. for 11 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
98.4%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 13 yds to the NU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-11
98.0%
Malachi Singleton sacked by Michael Kilbane for a loss of 11 yards to the NU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:01
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+6.5
FG · Q2 8:38
Jack Olsen 38 yd FG GOOD
+6.1
TD · Q2 13:13
Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
+4