PUR
Purdue 0 at Northwestern 19
NU2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · (00:31) Kneel down by Northwestern at NU23 for loss of 1 yard.
01
NU has the ball
+24
02
Market gave NU a 59% pregame chance
−20
03
NU leading by 19
+15
04
Blowout context favors the offense
+8
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
NU · Drive 1FG · 16 plays · 66 yds
Q1 15:00
Seth Turner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:54
Caleb Komolafe run for 11 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST down
+2.1
Q1 14:13
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 10 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q1 13:39
Joseph Himon II run for 7 yds to the PUR 47
+0.8
Q1 13:00
Caleb Komolafe run for 7 yds to the PUR 40 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q1 12:21
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hunter Welcing
+0.4
Q1 12:21
Timeout Northwestern, clock 12:21
+0.5
Q1 12:16
Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the PUR 37
0.0
Q1 11:34
Preston Stone run for 7 yds to the PUR 30 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 10:58
Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the PUR 30
+0.2
Q1 10:13
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Carson Grove
0.0
Q1 10:08
Caleb Komolafe run for 15 yds to the PUR 15 Caleb Komolafe fumbled, recovered by NU Caleb Komolafe for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 9:29
Joseph Himon II run for 2 yds to the PUR 13
+0.5
Q1 9:04
Joseph Himon II run for 4 yds to the PUR 9
0.0
Q1 8:21
Ryan Boe run for no gain to the PUR 9
-0.4
Q1 7:45
Jack Olsen 27 yd FG GOOD
+4.8
PUR · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q1 7:45
Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.8
Q1 7:39
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to EJ Horton Jr.
-3.5
Q1 7:34
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 3 yards to the PUR 22
0.0
Q1 6:44
Ryan Browne pass complete to Jesse Watson for 8 yds to the PUR 30
-0.8
Q1 6:23
Jack McCallister punt for 47 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 3 yds to the NU 26
-0.3
NU · Drive 3TD · 17 plays · 74 yds
Q1 6:17
Joseph Himon II run for 4 yds to the NU 30
+3.4
Q1 5:34
Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the NU 33
0.0
Q1 4:41
Preston Stone pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 8 yds to the NU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 4:19
Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the NU 43
+1.4
Q1 3:49
PENALTY NU Illegal Snap (Carsello,Jackson) 5 yards from NU43 to NU38. NO PLAY.
-0.6
Q1 3:27
(03:30) Shotgun Stone,Preston pass incomplete deep left to Eligon II,Hayden thrown to PUR41 broken up by Grimes,Tony PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (Grimes,Tony) 15 yards from NU38 to PUR47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.2
Q1 3:22
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Griffin Wilde
+0.7
Q1 3:15
Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the PUR 44
0.0
Q1 2:28
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 7 yds to the PUR 37 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 1:59
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 38
+1.2
Q1 1:19
Preston Stone pass complete to Drew Wagner for 7 yds to the PUR 31
0.0
Q1 0:00
Caleb Komolafe run for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 32
-0.3
Q2 14:55
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Stone,Preston pass incomplete short middle to Ahumaraeze,Ricky thrown to PUR15 QB hurried by Powell,Mani PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (Hines,Hudauri) 15 yards from PUR32 to PUR17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.7
Q2 14:46
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Caleb Komolafe
+1.0
Q2 14:34
Robby Preckel run for 14 yds to the PUR 3 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 13:56
Caleb Komolafe run for no gain to the PUR 3
0.0
Q2 13:13
Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
+15.8
PUR · Drive 4PUNT · 8 plays · 12 yds
Q2 13:12
Luke Akers kickoff for 49 yds , Antonio Harris return for 2 yds to the PUR 18
-0.8
Q2 13:02
Devin Mockobee run for 16 yds to the PUR 34 for a 1ST down
-4.0
Q2 12:38
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan pass incomplete short right to Jackson III,Michael thrown to PUR45 broken up by Uihlein,Mac PENALTY PUR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Purvis,Hank) 5 yards from PUR34 to PUR29. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 12:27
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 8 yds to the PUR 37
0.0
Q2 12:00
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds to the PUR 40
0.0
Q2 11:17
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan rush left for 7 yards gain to the PUR47 (Turner,Braden), out of bounds PENALTY PUR Holding (Tanona,Joey) 10 yards from PUR40 to PUR30. NO PLAY.
-0.7
Q2 10:52
Ryan Browne pass incomplete
+0.9
Q2 10:42
Jack McCallister punt for 55 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 5 yds to the NU 20
0.0
NU · Drive 5FG · 8 plays · 60 yds
Q2 10:32
Preston Stone pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 35 yds to the PUR 45 for a 1ST down Purdue Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Hershey McLaurin) to the PUR 30 for a 1ST down
+4.0
Q2 10:11
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II
+0.8
Q2 10:06
Joseph Himon II run for 10 yds to the PUR 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 9:25
Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the PUR 20
0.0
Q2 8:47
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Ricky Ahumaraeze
0.0
Q2 8:42
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Griffin Wilde
-0.2
Q2 8:38
Jack Olsen 38 yd FG GOOD
+9.1
Q2 8:38
Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Purdue Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Alex Sanford Jr.)
+0.2
PUR · Drive 6PUNT · 7 plays · 18 yds
Q2 8:32
Malachi Thomas run for 5 yds to the PUR 17
-5.5
Q2 7:51
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 4 yds to the PUR 21
+0.5
Q2 7:18
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the PUR 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:45
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 4 yds to the PUR 27
0.0
Q2 6:13
Malachi Thomas run for 3 yds to the PUR 30
0.0
Q2 5:37
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Arhmad Branch
+0.1
Q2 5:28
Jack McCallister punt for 44 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 1 yd to the NU 27
0.0
NU · Drive 7DOWNS · 10 plays · 26 yds
Q2 5:23
Caleb Komolafe run for 6 yds to the NU 33
+4.4
Q2 4:37
Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the NU 35
-0.1
Q2 4:00
Caleb Komolafe run for 3 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 3:09
Preston Stone pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 6 yds to the NU 44
+0.1
Q2 2:32
Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the NU 47
-0.1
Q2 1:57
Preston Stone run for 2 yds to the NU 49 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q2 1:49
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II
+0.2
Q2 1:46
Preston Stone pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:40
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Griffin Wilde
-0.2
Q2 1:36
Lawson Albright run for 4 yds to the PUR 47
-0.6
PUR · Drive 8PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q2 1:30
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro Tuggle
-2.7
Q2 1:16
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 7 yds to the NU 46
0.0
Q2 1:07
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro Tuggle
-0.6
Q2 1:00
Jack McCallister punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Drew Wagner at the NU 8
0.0
NU · Drive 9END OF HALF · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q2 0:54
Caleb Komolafe run for 6 yds to the NU 14
+4.0
Q2 0:14
Caleb Komolafe run for 13 yds to the NU 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:01
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Stone,Preston pass incomplete short right thrown to NU31 QB hurried by Nunnally,CJ PENALTY NU Holding (Lewis,Martes) 10 yards from NU27 to NU17. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 0:00
(00:01) Kneel down by Northwestern at NU15 for loss of 2 yards.
0.0
PUR · Drive 10PUNT · 8 plays · 24 yds
Q3 14:58
Luke Akers kickoff for 63 yds , Michael Jackson III return for 6 yds to the PUR 8
-0.1
Q3 14:52
Ryan Browne run for 3 yds to the PUR 11
-2.1
Q3 14:30
Malachi Singleton run for 2 yds to the PUR 13
+0.3
Q3 13:51
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 13 yds to the PUR 26 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 13:21
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the PUR 28
-0.1
Q3 12:41
Malachi Singleton run for 6 yds to the PUR 34
+5.1
Q3 12:06
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 2 yards to the PUR 32
0.0
Q3 11:35
Jack McCallister punt for 44 yds , Drew Wagner returns for no gain to the NU 24
0.0
NU · Drive 11TD · 14 plays · 76 yds
Q3 11:22
Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 15 yds to the NU 39 for a 1ST down
+1.6
Q3 10:49
Joseph Himon II run for 6 yds to the NU 45
+1.9
Q3 10:10
Joseph Himon II run for 8 yds to the PUR 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:37
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 2 yards to the PUR 49
+2.0
Q3 8:50
Preston Stone pass complete to Lawson Albright for 11 yds to the PUR 38
0.0
Q3 8:11
Preston Stone run for no gain to the PUR 38
+0.4
Q3 7:35
Caleb Komolafe run for 3 yds to the PUR 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:12
(07:17) Shotgun Stone,Preston pass incomplete deep left to Wilde,Griffin thrown to PUR10 PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (Hines,Hudauri) 15 yards from PUR35 to PUR20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 7:03
Dashun Reeder run for 6 yds to the PUR 14
0.0
Q3 6:26
Dashun Reeder run for 3 yds to the PUR 11
0.0
Q3 5:44
Dashun Reeder run for 5 yds to the PUR 6 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q3 5:07
PENALTY NU False Start (Lewis,Martes) 5 yards from PUR06 to PUR11. NO PLAY.
+0.2
Q3 4:40
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 12
0.0
Q3 4:01
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+10.1
PUR · Drive 12DOWNS · 10 plays · 36 yds
Q3 3:54
Luke Akers kickoff for 61 yds , Michael Jackson III return for 32 yds to the PUR 36
-0.3
Q3 3:49
Malachi Singleton pass incomplete to Corey Smith
-2.7
Q3 3:43
Devin Mockobee run for 9 yds to the PUR 45
0.0
Q3 3:07
Malachi Singleton run for 2 yds to the PUR 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 2:35
Malachi Thomas run for 6 yds to the NU 47
0.0
Q3 1:56
Malachi Thomas run for 10 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 1:20
Malachi Thomas run for 5 yds to the NU 32
+0.9
Q3 0:52
Malachi Singleton pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 0:44
Michael Jackson III run for 2 yds to the NU 30
0.0
Q3 0:00
Malachi Singleton run for 2 yds to the NU 28
0.0
NU · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · -2 yds
Q4 14:54
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 26
+2.8
Q4 14:14
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II
+0.3
Q4 14:11
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hunter Welcing
0.0
Q4 14:00
Luke Akers punt for 44 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 24 yds to the PUR 20
0.0
PUR · Drive 14FUMBLE · 3 plays · 50 yds
Q4 13:51
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Michael Jackson III for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 19
-3.1
Q4 13:28
Malachi Thomas run for 3 yds to the PUR 22
0.0
Q4 13:05
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Corey Smith for 48 yds Corey Smith fumbled, recovered by NU Robert Fitzgerald
0.0
NU · Drive 15FUMBLE · 3 plays · 55 yds
Q4 12:59
Dashun Reeder run for 28 yds to the PUR 42 for a 1ST down
+3.1
Q4 12:34
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 18 yds to the PUR 24 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 11:55
Dashun Reeder run for 9 yds to the PUR 28 Dashun Reeder fumbled, recovered by PUR Alex Sanford Jr.
0.0
PUR · Drive 16DOWNS · 6 plays · 55 yds
Q4 11:41
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 26 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST down
-3.0
Q4 10:56
Malachi Singleton pass complete to EJ Horton Jr. for 21 yds to the NU 25 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 10:36
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds to the NU 22
-0.3
Q4 9:55
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 4 yds to the NU 18
-1.6
Q4 9:23
Malachi Singleton run for 1 yd to the NU 17
0.0
Q4 8:44
Malachi Singleton run for no gain to the NU 17
0.0
NU · Drive 17PUNT · 4 plays · 3 yds
Q4 8:39
Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the NU 20
+3.8
Q4 8:02
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II
0.0
Q4 7:42
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II
0.0
Q4 7:27
Luke Akers punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the PUR 28
0.0
PUR · Drive 18INT · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q4 7:24
Malachi Singleton pass incomplete to Malachi Thomas
-3.5
Q4 7:16
Malachi Singleton pass intercepted Mac Uihlein return for no gain to the PUR 29
0.0
NU · Drive 19INT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q4 7:10
Robby Preckel run for 1 yd to the PUR 28
+3.5
Q4 6:28
Robby Preckel run for 4 yds to the PUR 24
0.0
Q4 6:27
Timeout Purdue, clock 06:27
+1.3
Q4 6:22
Preston Stone pass intercepted Smiley Bradford return for no gain to the PUR 14
0.0
PUR · Drive 20FUMBLE · 5 plays · 29 yds
Q4 6:01
Malachi Singleton pass incomplete to EJ Horton Jr.
-4.7
Q4 5:41
Malachi Singleton run for 6 yds to the PUR 20
0.0
Q4 5:15
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 26 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:57
Malachi Singleton pass incomplete to Michael Jackson III
+0.6
Q4 4:48
Malachi Singleton sacked by Anto Saka for a loss of 3 yards to the PUR 45 Malachi Singleton fumbled, recovered by NU Brendan Flakes , return for 0 yards
0.0
NU · Drive 21MISSED FG · 6 plays · 37 yds
Q4 4:38
Joseph Himon II run for 37 yds to the PUR 8 for a 1ST down
+4.4
Q4 3:55
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 9
0.0
Q4 3:10
Joseph Himon II run for 1 yd to the PUR 8
0.0
Q4 2:23
Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the PUR 8
0.0
Q4 2:23
Timeout Purdue, clock 02:23
0.0
Q4 2:21
Jack Olsen 26 yd FG MISSED
0.0
PUR · Drive 22DOWNS · 10 plays · 54 yds
Q4 2:14
Malachi Singleton pass incomplete to EJ Horton Jr.
-4.1
Q4 2:03
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Jesse Watson for 6 yds to the PUR 26
-0.2
Q4 1:52
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Rico Walker for 20 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q4 1:42
Malachi Singleton pass complete to EJ Horton Jr. for 11 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:35
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 13 yds to the NU 30 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q4 1:27
Malachi Singleton sacked by Michael Kilbane for a loss of 11 yards to the NU 41
0.0
Q4 1:25
Timeout Purdue, clock 01:25
-0.1
Q4 1:12
Malachi Singleton run for 15 yds to the NU 26
0.0
Q4 1:02
Malachi Singleton pass incomplete to Jesse Watson
0.0
Q4 0:56
Malachi Singleton pass incomplete to Corey Smith
0.0
NU · Drive 23END OF GAME · 2 plays · -3 yds
Q4 0:49
(00:51) Kneel down by Northwestern at NU24 for loss of 2 yards.
+5.1
Q4 0:00
(00:31) Kneel down by Northwestern at NU23 for loss of 1 yard.
+0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:13
Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q3 4:01
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+10.1
FG · Q2 8:38
Jack Olsen 38 yd FG GOOD
+9.1