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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreNEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:56 · Tom Weston punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEB 45 , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 30 yds to the NEB 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:20: Drake Lindsey run for 1 yd for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — MINN win probability +6.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:15: Fame Ijeboi run for 4 yds to the NEB 20 — MINN win probability +4.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:36: Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — MINN win probability +20.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:32: Darius Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — MINN win probability +9.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:14: Brady Denaburg 30 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NEB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:59MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 33, tiedClose callPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:30NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snapGo for it64.4%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.5%average punt
- Q1 6:42MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 48, tiedClose callPunted · 37.4% before the snapGo for it37.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.3%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:00NEB 4th & 11 at MINN 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snapGo for it60.2%−0.624% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%83% to makePunt58.1%−2.8average punt
- Q2 11:52NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 26, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it54.8%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%average punt
- Q2 9:53MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 47, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 45.0% before the snapGo for it45.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.8%−1.3average punt
- Q2 4:25NEB 4th & 11 at MINN 12, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snapGo for it51.2%−1.122% to convertField goalTheir call52.3%86% to makePunt46.8%−5.5average punt
- Q2 1:02MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 46, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.3%average punt
- Q3 11:19NEB 4th & 18 at NEB 49, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snapGo for it46.5%−3.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.5%average punt
- Q3 0:20NEB 4th & 13 at NEB 14, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it15.8%−5.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.0%average punt
- Q4 9:37NEB 4th & 14 at NEB 37, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q4 5:14MINN 4th & 12 at NEB 12, up 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.619% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%86% to makePunt93.6%−2.5average punt
- Q4 3:10NEB 4th & 1 at MINN 37, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%70% to convertField goal1.8%−0.240% to makePunt1.6%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:56MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 40, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 13:20MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.3%97% to makeGo for two43.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:36MINN Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.7%97% to makeGo for two70.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:32MINN Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.4%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMINNDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5528% → 29%
Q1 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
28.6%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 2 yds to the MINN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1971% → 70%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 3 yds to the NEB 28Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
29.2%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 26Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
29.8%
Archie Wilson punt for 53 yds , Koi Perich returns for 2 yds to the MINN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 4:4230% → 32%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
29.7%
(11:28) No Huddle Taylor,Darius rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MINN25 (Jeudy,Elijah; Guthrie,Rex) PENALTY NEB Offside (McCullough,Dasan) 5 yards from MINN23 to MINN28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+3
30.0%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 3 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+2
31.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 2 yds to the MINN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4FG14 plays · 70 yds · 6:3568% → 68%
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
32.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 3 yds to the NEB 20Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+26
32.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 26 yds to the NEB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+15
32.0%
(02:32) Shotgun Raiola,Dylan pass incomplete deep left to Key,Dane thrown to MINN18 PENALTY MINN Pass Interference (Brown,Kerry) 15 yards from MINN39 to MINN24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+10
31.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 10 yds to the MINN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-5
32.4%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Deven Eastern for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5TD4 plays · 90 yds · 1:2433% → 40%
NEBDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2262% → 60%
MINNDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4740% → 41%
Q2 9:53
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
41.0%
Tom Weston punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jacory Barney Jr. at the NEB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8FG8 plays · 69 yds · 5:2260% → 59%
Q2 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+12
39.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 12 yds to the NEB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+43
39.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Quinn Clark for 43 yds to the MINN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-6
38.5%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Karter Menz for a loss of 6 yards to the MINN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 3:1143% → 44%
Q2 3:22
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+14
42.5%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 14 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
43.1%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 10 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
45.6%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 3 yds to the MINN 49Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
43.5%
Tom Weston punt for 40 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for no gain to the NEB 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10END OF HALF5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5655% → 56%
NEBDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:3655% → 51%
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
45.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 5 yds to the NEB 33Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
45.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 12 yds to the NEB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
43.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 1 yd to the MINN 42Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-9
44.6%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Jaxon Howard for a loss of 9 yards to the NEB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD17 plays · 98 yds · 8:3348% → 82%
Q3 9:56
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+12
47.1%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 12 yds to the MINN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
49.6%
PENALTY MINN False Start (Johnson,Greg) 5 yards from MINN21 to MINN16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+11
50.2%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 11 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
51.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 8 yds to the MINN 39Similar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
55.2%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 5 yds to the NEB 49Similar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
56.9%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for 7 yds to the NEB 34Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+10
56.3%
(03:26) Lindsey,Drake pass incomplete short left to Brockington,Lemeke thrown to NEB20 broken up by Jones,Donovan PENALTY NEB Holding (Marshall,Andrew) 10 yards from NEB34 to NEB24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
81.5%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0425% → 21%
Q3 1:01
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-8
77.8%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Matt Kingsbury for a loss of 8 yards to the NEB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14Uncategorized3 plays · 22 yds · 0:5283% → 83%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
82.5%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 3 yds to the MINN 41Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+15
83.1%
(14:16) Shotgun Lindsey,Drake pass intercepted by Marshall,Andrew at NEB35 QB hurried by Nwaneri,Williams PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Jones,Donovan) 15 yards from MINN45 to NEB40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD4 plays · 40 yds · 1:2285% → 94%
Q4 13:13
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+35
84.3%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 35 yds to the NEB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:489% → 6%
Q4 11:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
91.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 3 yds to the NEB 32Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
91.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 9 yds to the NEB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-6
93.1%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Jaxon Howard for a loss of 6 yards to the NEB 37Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
94.2%
Archie Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17FG11 plays · 62 yds · 4:1695% → 98%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
95.6%
(08:57) Taylor,Darius rush right for 1 yard loss to the MINN40 (Singleton,DeShon) PENALTY NEB Offside (Davis,Keona) 5 yards from MINN41 to MINN46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
96.1%
Darius Taylor run for 11 yds to the NEB 38 for a 1ST down Nebraska Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Gabe Moore) to the NEB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 38 yds · 1:541% → 1%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.1%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 10 yds to the NEB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.2%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 9 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+10
99.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 10 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 2:0899% → 100%
Q4 0:56
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+30
99.6%
Tom Weston punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEB 45 , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 30 yds to the NEB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:36
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+20.7
TD · Q4 12:32
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 13:20
Drake Lindsey run for 1 yd for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+6.8