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USC

USC 24 at Notre Dame 34

ND
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:12 · Sam Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+20.8Home team on offense−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:04: CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +10.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:19: Ryon Sayeri 43 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +13.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:32: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 59 yds for a TD (Ja'Kobi Lane pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — USC win probability +23.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:17: R. Sayeri kick for 65 yds,J. Price return for 100 yds for a TD (N. Burnette PAT MISSED) — ND win probability +20.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 7:16: CJ Carr run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +17.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:04USC 4th & 6 at ND 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:37ND 4th & 6 at ND 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32USC 4th & 5 at USC 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:41ND 4th & 2 at ND 37, down 3
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:12USC 4th & 7 at USC 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:19USC 4th & 3 at ND 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:42USC 4th & 7 at ND 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:41ND 4th & 15 at ND 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:42ND 4th & 1 at USC 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−2.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−10.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:19USC 4th & 3 at ND 26, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%−1.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−8.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:25ND 4th & 6 at ND 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:44ND 4th & 4 at USC 13, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−13.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:02USC 4th & 1 at USC 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:35ND 4th & 15 at USC 28, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:35ND 4th & 15 at USC 28, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:09USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:11ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:36ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:04ND Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:32USC Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:17ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:16ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4524% → 26%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
King Miller run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.4%
PENALTY IRISH Offside (Traore,Boubacar) 5 yards from TROJAN25 to TROJAN30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
76.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
76.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 16 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
76.0%
King Miller run for 1 yd to the ND 41Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
75.9%
King Miller run for no gain to the ND 41Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+24
75.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 24 yds to the ND 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
75.6%
King Miller run for 4 yds to the ND 13Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+8
75.4%
Bryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the ND 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.3%
PENALTY TROJAN False Start 5 yards from IRISH05 to IRISH10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Bryan JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
74.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 10 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5174% → 76%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.4%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Eli RaridonSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+63
74.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 63 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
74.6%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
75.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:5525% → 26%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
75.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
50
0
74.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Walker LyonsSimilar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 10
50
+21
74.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 21 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
74.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 4 yds to the ND 25Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
74.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to King MillerSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
74.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ja'Kobi LaneSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
74.4%
Ryon Sayeri 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1574% → 72%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 9 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
73.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
72.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 35Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+6
72.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 6 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
72.4%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Eli RaridonSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
71.9%
James Rendell punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0127% → 26%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
73.5%
Bryan Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 6Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+6
73.4%
King Miller run for 6 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
73.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Tanook HinesSimilar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
73.7%
Sam Johnson punt for 59 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4371% → 70%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
71.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 8 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-9
71.6%
CJ Carr sacked by Kameryn Crawford for a loss of 9 yards to the ND 28Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+9
69.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jadarian Price for 9 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
70.4%
James Rendell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2530% → 30%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
70.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ja'Kobi LaneSimilar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-2
70.4%
Harry Dalton III run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 14Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+5
70.4%
King Miller run for 5 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
70.5%
Sam Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:2869% → 75%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+32
69.2%
Jadarian Price run for 32 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
70.3%
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+7
71.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
75.2%
Jadarian Price run for 16 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:1026% → 25%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
74.5%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TROJAN20 (Tuihalamaka,Junior), fumble by Maiava,Jayden recovered by TROJAN Noa,Alani at TROJAN20, End Of Play PENALTY IRISH Holding (Ausberry,Jaiden) 10 yards from TROJAN26 to TROJAN36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
74.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 27 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
72.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Tanook HinesSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
72.8%
King Miller run for 11 yds to the ND 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
71.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to King Miller for 4 yds to the ND 22Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
71.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 3 yds to the ND 19Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
73.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for no gain to the ND 19Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 3
OPP 19
0
74.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10INT
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:2075% → 77%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
75.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 15 yds to the ND 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
75.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 40Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+27
76.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 27 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
76.7%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the USC 32Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+12
77.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 12 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
77.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 17 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
77.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the USC 2Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
77.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the USC 2Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-18
76.6%
CJ Carr pass intercepted Braylan Shelby return for 18 yds to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:0324% → 26%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
76.1%
King Miller run for 6 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+15
75.7%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Lyons,Walker thrown to TROJAN46 PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Shuler,Adon) 15 yards from TROJAN28 to TROJAN43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
74.6%
Bryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+17
74.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Bryan Jackson for 17 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
73.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 13 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
72.4%
King Miller run for 1 yd to the ND 23Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+15
72.1%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete deep right to Lane,Ja'Kobi thrown to IRISH02, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Gray,Christian) 15 yards from IRISH23 to IRISH08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
72.2%
Bryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the ND 7Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
72.6%
Husan Longstreet run for no gain to the ND 7Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
74.0%
Ryon Sayeri 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:5573% → 71%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
73.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 5 yds to the ND 21Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+12
73.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 12 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
73.3%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-15
73.0%
(01:12) Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete short left to Love,Jeremiyah thrown to IRISH30 PENALTY IRISH Personal Foul (Fields,Malachi) 15 yards from IRISH33 to IRISH18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 25
OWN 18
+5
72.7%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 5 yds to the ND 23Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+5
71.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 5 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
70.9%
James Rendell punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:3625% → 25%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
75.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
75.5%
King Miller run for 4 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+15
76.0%
King Miller run for 15 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
74.6%
Jayden Maiava sacked by Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:4872% → 84%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 12 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
72.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 16 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
74.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+9
74.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 9 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
74.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 4 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
74.2%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the USC 27Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+4
73.1%
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
71.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
74.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
74.1%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+10
72.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
74.0%
CJ Carr run for 2 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.3%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:3921% → 31%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
79.3%
(08:04) Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short middle to Lane,Ja'Kobi thrown to TROJAN42 PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Moore,Leonard) 15 yards from TROJAN35 to TROJAN50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
50
+2
77.2%
King Miller run for 2 yds to the ND 48Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+15
77.4%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short left to Lane,Ja'Kobi thrown to IRISH32 PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Gray,Christian) 15 yards from IRISH48 to IRISH33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
75.8%
King Miller run for 7 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
75.3%
King Miller run for no gain to the ND 26Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
78.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Tanook HinesSimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
69.5%
Ryon Sayeri 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4876% → 74%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.9%
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
76.0%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
75.0%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan FaisonSimilar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
73.7%
James Rendell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 0:4430% → 53%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
70.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
71.2%
(05:16) Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Hines,Tanook thrown to TROJAN35 PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Gray,Christian) 6 yards from TROJAN29 to TROJAN35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
69.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 6 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+59
46.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 59 yds for a TD (Ja'Kobi Lane pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0431% → 35%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
68.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to King Miller for 10 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
67.4%
King Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 33Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+3
69.2%
King Miller run for 3 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+8
68.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 8 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-11
65.2%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Christian Gray return for 11 yds to the USC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:5973% → 73%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
73.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+10
72.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 10 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
73.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+8
73.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
76.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the USC 19Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
76.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
74.7%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan FaisonSimilar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
72.7%
Noah Burnette 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:2730% → 35%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
70.5%
King Miller run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
70.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ja'Kobi LaneSimilar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+42
72.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 42 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-13
65.2%
Makai Lemon run for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard line Makai Lemon fumbled, recovered by USC Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:5080% → 98%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
50
0
79.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
50
+9
79.7%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 9 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
79.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
80.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 15 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
80.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 16 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
79.7%
CJ Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.5%
CJ Carr run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:109% → 8%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
91.1%
King Miller run for 5 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
90.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
90.8%
Bryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
92.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 16 yds · 3:2098% → 98%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
97.7%
Jadarian Price run for 11 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
97.8%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-3
97.9%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 31Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+8
98.0%
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
98.3%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-3
98.5%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-5
98.6%
CJ Carr run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 28Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 15
OPP 28
0
98.4%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 15
OPP 28
0
98.4%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24INT
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:223% → 2%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
97.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to King MillerSimilar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
97.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+16
97.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 16 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Christian Gray return for no gain to the ND 25Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
97.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 8 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+7
97.3%
Bryan Jackson run for 7 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jadyn RamosSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-7
97.0%
USC Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 17
OPP 46
-4
97.7%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Luke Talich return for 4 yds to the ND 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
98.9%
C. Carr takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 7
-1
98.9%
C. Carr takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:32
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 59 yds for a TD (Ja'Kobi Lane pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-23.2
TD · Q3 4:17
R. Sayeri kick for 65 yds,J. Price return for 100 yds for a TD (N. Burnette PAT MISSED)
+20.8
TD · Q4 7:16
CJ Carr run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com