USC
USC 24 at Notre Dame 34
ND2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · C. Carr takes a knee
01
ND has the ball
+20
02
Blowout context favors the offense
+9
03
Market gave ND a 77% pregame chance
+3
04
ND leading by 10
+2
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:54
King Miller run for no gain to the USC 25
-1.4
Q1 14:22
PENALTY IRISH Offside (Traore,Boubacar) 5 yards from TROJAN25 to TROJAN30. NO PLAY.
-1.0
Q1 14:00
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:47
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 16 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST down
-1.2
Q1 13:17
King Miller run for 1 yd to the ND 41
-1.0
Q1 12:56
King Miller run for no gain to the ND 41
0.0
Q1 12:31
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 24 yds to the ND 17 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:15
King Miller run for 4 yds to the ND 13
0.0
Q1 11:36
Bryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the ND 5 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:25
PENALTY TROJAN False Start 5 yards from IRISH05 to IRISH10. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 11:15
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Bryan Jackson
0.0
Q1 11:09
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 10 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
-15.4
Q1 11:09
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 11:09
+18.7
Q1 11:09
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-18.0
Q1 11:02
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Eli Raridon
+2.6
Q1 10:52
Jeremiyah Love run for 63 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:17
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will Pauling
+2.9
Q1 10:11
Jeremiyah Love run for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+14.4
Q1 10:11
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 10:11
-19.5
Q1 10:11
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+17.8
Q1 9:59
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-2.6
Q1 9:25
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Walker Lyons
-1.9
Q1 9:14
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 21 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 8:58
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 4 yds to the ND 25
-0.8
Q1 8:14
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to King Miller
0.0
Q1 8:07
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ja'Kobi Lane
0.0
Q1 8:04
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 08:04
+5.7
Q1 8:04
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-8.6
Q1 8:04
Ryon Sayeri 42 yd FG GOOD
-1.0
Q1 7:52
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 9 yds to the ND 34
+7.2
Q1 7:30
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:56
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 35
0.0
Q1 6:24
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 6 yds to the ND 41
-1.0
Q1 5:49
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Eli Raridon
-1.9
Q1 5:39
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 05:39
-4.7
Q1 5:37
James Rendell punt for 52 yds
+4.7
Q1 5:33
Bryan Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 6
-4.7
Q1 4:58
King Miller run for 6 yds to the USC 12
0.0
Q1 4:40
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Tanook Hines
0.0
Q1 4:32
Sam Johnson punt for 59 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 29
0.0
Q1 4:24
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 8 yds to the ND 37
+4.3
Q1 4:01
CJ Carr sacked by Kameryn Crawford for a loss of 9 yards to the ND 28
0.0
Q1 3:19
CJ Carr pass complete to Jadarian Price for 9 yds to the ND 37
-0.1
Q1 2:43
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 02:43
-6.3
Q1 2:41
James Rendell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 16
+6.3
Q1 2:37
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ja'Kobi Lane
-6.3
Q1 2:28
Harry Dalton III run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 14
0.0
Q1 1:52
King Miller run for 5 yds to the USC 19
-1.4
Q1 1:12
Sam Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 37
0.0
Q1 1:04
Jadarian Price run for 32 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST down
+6.9
Q1 0:00
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the USC 23
+2.1
Q2 14:53
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:38
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+9.8
Q2 14:36
Jadarian Price run for 16 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+1.1
Q2 14:29
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 1 yd to the USC 26
-5.6
Q2 14:05
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TROJAN20 (Tuihalamaka,Junior), fumble by Maiava,Jayden recovered by TROJAN Noa,Alani at TROJAN20, End Of Play PENALTY IRISH Holding (Ausberry,Jaiden) 10 yards from TROJAN26 to TROJAN36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 13:38
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 27 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 13:00
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Tanook Hines
-2.4
Q2 12:57
King Miller run for 11 yds to the ND 26 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:08
Jayden Maiava pass complete to King Miller for 4 yds to the ND 22
0.0
Q2 11:33
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 3 yds to the ND 19
0.0
Q2 10:50
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for no gain to the ND 19
0.0
Q2 10:19
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McRee
+0.6
Q2 10:19
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 10:19
+7.3
Q2 10:11
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 15 yds to the ND 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 9:39
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 40
0.0
Q2 9:01
Jeremiyah Love run for 27 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q2 8:36
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the USC 32
+0.7
Q2 7:56
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 12 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 7:22
Jeremiyah Love run for 17 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST down
-1.5
Q2 6:58
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the USC 2
0.0
Q2 6:19
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the USC 2
0.0
Q2 6:13
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 06:13
+0.6
Q2 5:51
CJ Carr pass intercepted Braylan Shelby return for 18 yds to the USC 22
0.0
Q2 5:45
King Miller run for 6 yds to the USC 28
-3.1
Q2 5:15
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Lyons,Walker thrown to TROJAN46 PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Shuler,Adon) 15 yards from TROJAN28 to TROJAN43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 5:08
Bryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the USC 46
-0.9
Q2 4:30
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Bryan Jackson for 17 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q2 3:50
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 13 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q2 3:12
King Miller run for 1 yd to the ND 23
0.0
Q2 2:31
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete deep right to Lane,Ja'Kobi thrown to IRISH02, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Gray,Christian) 15 yards from IRISH23 to IRISH08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.3
Q2 2:25
Bryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the ND 7
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 02:00
-0.1
Q2 1:52
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:52
0.0
Q2 1:50
Husan Longstreet run for no gain to the ND 7
0.0
Q2 1:42
Ryon Sayeri 24 yd FG GOOD
-3.4
Q2 1:39
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 62 yds , Jadarian Price return for 13 yds to the ND 16
+1.9
Q2 1:36
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 5 yds to the ND 21
+4.9
Q2 1:27
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 12 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:12
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi Fields
0.0
Q2 1:07
(01:12) Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete short left to Love,Jeremiyah thrown to IRISH30 PENALTY IRISH Personal Foul (Fields,Malachi) 15 yards from IRISH33 to IRISH18. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 1:00
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 5 yds to the ND 23
0.0
Q2 0:54
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 5 yds to the ND 28
0.0
Q2 0:41
James Rendell punt for 55 yds
-0.5
Q2 0:41
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 00:41
-4.5
Q2 0:36
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai Lemon
0.0
Q2 0:30
King Miller run for 4 yds to the USC 21
0.0
Q2 0:25
King Miller run for 15 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down
-1.2
Q2 0:22
Timeout USC, clock 00:22
-0.2
Q2 0:00
Jayden Maiava sacked by Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 34
-0.6
Q3 15:00
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.5
Q3 14:52
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 12 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST down
+4.3
Q3 14:19
Jeremiyah Love run for 16 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q3 13:43
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the USC 41
+0.3
Q3 13:03
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 9 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 12:28
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 4 yds to the USC 28
0.0
Q3 12:01
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the USC 27
0.0
Q3 11:20
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the USC 23
-0.4
Q3 10:42
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q3 10:10
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the USC 18
+0.8
Q3 9:30
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi Fields
-0.1
Q3 9:24
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 8:43
CJ Carr run for 2 yds to the USC 6
+0.2
Q3 8:04
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+10.0
Q3 8:04
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 08:04
-16.1
Q3 8:04
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 63 yds
+15.4
Q3 7:58
(08:04) Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short middle to Lane,Ja'Kobi thrown to TROJAN42 PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Moore,Leonard) 15 yards from TROJAN35 to TROJAN50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
+0.2
Q3 7:54
King Miller run for 2 yds to the ND 48
-0.3
Q3 7:19
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short left to Lane,Ja'Kobi thrown to IRISH32 PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Gray,Christian) 15 yards from IRISH48 to IRISH33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 7:14
King Miller run for 7 yds to the ND 26
-0.8
Q3 6:58
King Miller run for no gain to the ND 26
0.0
Q3 6:23
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Tanook Hines
+1.2
Q3 6:19
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 06:19
+1.9
Q3 6:19
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-9.5
Q3 6:19
Ryon Sayeri 43 yd FG GOOD
-1.4
Q3 6:13
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the ND 29
+4.7
Q3 5:36
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will Pauling
0.0
Q3 5:30
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan Faison
-0.4
Q3 5:25
James Rendell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 29
-0.4
Q3 5:25
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 05:25
-2.5
Q3 5:16
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete
-0.3
Q3 5:12
(05:16) Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Hines,Tanook thrown to TROJAN35 PENALTY IRISH Pass Interference (Gray,Christian) 6 yards from TROJAN29 to TROJAN35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 5:02
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 6 yds to the USC 41
0.0
Q3 4:32
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 59 yds for a TD (Ja'Kobi Lane pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-27.8
Q3 4:17
R. Sayeri kick for 65 yds,J. Price return for 100 yds for a TD (N. Burnette PAT MISSED)
+22.9
Q3 4:10
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 60 yds , Tanook Hines return for 19 yds to the USC 24
+3.0
Q3 3:52
Jayden Maiava pass complete to King Miller for 10 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST down
-3.0
Q3 3:40
King Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 33
0.0
Q3 2:59
King Miller run for 3 yds to the USC 36
0.0
Q3 2:24
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 8 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:48
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Christian Gray return for 11 yds to the USC 44
-1.5
Q3 1:43
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the USC 42
+5.9
Q3 1:05
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 10 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 0:00
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the USC 27
0.0
Q4 14:52
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:18
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the USC 19
+0.7
Q4 13:33
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the USC 13
-0.1
Q4 12:52
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 12:52
-0.2
Q4 12:48
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan Faison
0.0
Q4 12:44
Noah Burnette 31 yd FG MISSED
-0.5
Q4 12:44
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 12:44
-3.3
Q4 12:38
King Miller run for 1 yd to the USC 21
0.0
Q4 12:04
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ja'Kobi Lane
0.0
Q4 11:50
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 42 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 11:11
Makai Lemon run for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard line Makai Lemon fumbled, recovered by USC Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa , return to the 50 yard line
-2.5
Q4 11:11
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 11:11
+7.4
Q4 11:06
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 10:28
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 9 yds to the USC 41
+0.9
Q4 9:56
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 9:18
Jeremiyah Love run for 15 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 8:29
Jeremiyah Love run for 16 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST down
-1.6
Q4 7:49
CJ Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 1
-0.1
Q4 7:16
CJ Carr run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+16.7
Q4 7:16
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 58 yds
+0.4
Q4 7:12
King Miller run for 5 yds to the USC 40
-2.8
Q4 6:51
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McRee
+0.5
Q4 6:47
Bryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the USC 44
0.0
Q4 6:02
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McRee
0.0
Q4 5:55
Jadarian Price run for 11 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST down
+2.3
Q4 5:13
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the USC 28
+0.2
Q4 4:27
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 31
+0.2
Q4 4:27
Timeout USC, clock 04:27
+0.4
Q4 4:19
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 3:34
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the USC 20
0.0
Q4 3:33
Timeout USC, clock 03:33
-0.3
Q4 3:29
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 23
0.0
Q4 3:23
Timeout USC, clock 03:23
+0.5
Q4 3:20
CJ Carr run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 28
0.0
Q4 2:35
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will Pauling
0.0
Q4 2:35
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will Pauling
0.0
Q4 2:28
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to King Miller
-2.6
Q4 2:21
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 2 yds to the USC 30
0.0
Q4 1:57
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 16 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 1:57
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:57
+0.2
Q4 1:49
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Christian Gray return for no gain to the ND 25
0.0
Q4 1:43
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 8 yds to the ND 46
0.0
Q4 1:38
Bryan Jackson run for 7 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:27
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jadyn Ramos
-0.4
Q4 1:22
USC Penalty, (Yards) declined
0.0
Q4 1:06
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Luke Talich return for 4 yds to the ND 8
+0.5
Q4 0:59
C. Carr takes a knee
+2.6
Q4 0:00
C. Carr takes a knee
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:32
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 59 yds for a TD (Ja'Kobi Lane pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-27.8
TD · Q3 4:17
R. Sayeri kick for 65 yds,J. Price return for 100 yds for a TD (N. Burnette PAT MISSED)
+22.9
KEY PLAY · Q1 10:11
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 10:11
-19.5