ARDLINETry the model
IOWA

Iowa 37 at Wisconsin 0

WIS
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4KEY PLAYKEY PLAYTDTDFGKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAY
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
IOWA · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q1 14:55
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 73 yds , Kaden Wetjen return for 23 yds to the IOWA 30
37.3%
0.0
Q1 14:50
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 2 yds to the IOWA 32
34.6%
-2.7
Q1 14:13
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the IOWA 37
34.1%
-0.6
Q1 13:30
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to DJ Vonnahme
33.9%
-0.2
Q1 13:23
Rhys Dakin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 21
33.9%
0.0
WIS · Drive 2PUNT · 8 plays · 22 yds
Q1 13:16
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Trech Kekahuna
37.6%
+3.7
Q1 13:11
Trech Kekahuna run for 6 yds to the WIS 27
37.6%
0.0
Q1 12:54
Wisconsin Penalty, Helping the Runner (-5 Yards) to the WIS 29
37.6%
0.0
Q1 11:55
Hunter Simmons run for 5 yds to the WIS 34 for a 1ST down
37.6%
0.0
Q1 11:55
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Jackson Acker
37.6%
0.0
Q1 11:41
Dilin Jones run for 2 yds to the WIS 36
37.6%
0.0
Q1 10:54
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Chris Brooks Jr. for 7 yds to the WIS 43
37.8%
+0.2
Q1 10:02
Atticus Bertrams punt for 41 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 4 yds to the IOWA 20
38.1%
+0.3
IOWA · Drive 3FG · 11 plays · 66 yds
Q1 9:51
Kaden Wetjen run for 10 yds to the IOWA 30 for a 1ST down
34.1%
-4.0
Q1 9:17
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 6 yds to the IOWA 36
34.2%
+0.1
Q1 8:39
Kamari Moulton run for 7 yds to the IOWA 43 for a 1ST down
33.6%
-0.6
Q1 7:58
Nathan McNeil run for 24 yds to the WIS 33 for a 1ST down Wisconsin Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the WIS 33 for a 1ST down
32.9%
-0.7
Q1 7:26
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Hayden Large
31.8%
-1.1
Q1 7:22
Kamari Moulton run for 8 yds to the WIS 25
31.8%
0.0
Q1 6:41
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the WIS 20 for a 1ST down
31.8%
0.0
Q1 6:04
Xavier Williams run for 3 yds to the WIS 17
31.9%
+0.1
Q1 5:17
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 3 yds to the WIS 14
32.1%
+0.3
Q1 4:36
Iowa Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mark Gronowski) declined
32.1%
0.0
Q1 4:33
Drew Stevens 32 yd FG GOOD
28.8%
-3.3
WIS · Drive 4INT · 3 plays · 2 yds
Q1 4:33
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
29.9%
+1.1
Q1 4:26
Cade Yacamelli run for 2 yds to the WIS 27
33.1%
+3.2
Q1 3:52
Hunter Simmons pass intercepted Bryce Hawthorne return for no gain to the WIS 24
33.1%
0.0
IOWA · Drive 5TD · 3 plays · 24 yds
Q1 3:47
Nathan McNeil run for 4 yds to the WIS 20
28.2%
-4.9
Q1 3:05
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Sam Phillips for 14 yds to the WIS 6 for a 1ST down
28.3%
+0.1
Q1 2:33
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
17.1%
-11.2
WIS · Drive 6INT · 3 plays · 16 yds
Q1 2:33
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
18.3%
+1.2
Q1 2:15
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 16 yds to the WIS 41 for a 1ST down
20.7%
+2.4
Q1 1:45
Hunter Simmons pass intercepted Aaron Graves return for 35 yds to the WIS 1
21.2%
+0.4
IOWA · Drive 7TD · 1 play · 1 yds
Q1 1:30
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
10.4%
-10.8
WIS · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q1 1:30
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
10.7%
+0.3
Q1 1:26
Darrion Dupree run for 9 yds to the WIS 34
11.5%
+0.9
Q1 0:48
Darrion Dupree run for no gain to the WIS 34
11.5%
0.0
Q1 0:13
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Lance Mason
11.6%
0.0
Q1 0:04
Atticus Bertrams punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IOWA 39 , Kaden Wetjen returns for 13 yds to the IOWA 39
11.6%
0.0
IOWA · Drive 9INT · 1 play · 0 yds
Q1 0:01
Mark Gronowski pass intercepted Ricardo Hallman return for no gain to the WIS 37
10.5%
-1.2
WIS · Drive 10FUMBLE · 2 plays · -9 yds
Q2 14:56
Darrion Dupree run for 1 yd to the WIS 38
11.7%
+1.2
Q2 14:10
Hunter Simmons run for a loss of 10 yards to the WIS 28 Hunter Simmons fumbled, recovered by IOWA Zach Lutmer
12.1%
+0.4
IOWA · Drive 11FG · 10 plays · 22 yds
Q2 14:03
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the WIS 27
10.6%
-1.5
Q2 13:18
Kamari Moulton run for 12 yds to the WIS 15 for a 1ST down
10.6%
0.0
Q2 12:49
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the WIS 10
10.6%
0.0
Q2 12:08
Nathan McNeil run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 11
10.6%
0.0
Q2 11:26
Mark Gronowski pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for 7 yds to the WIS 4 for a 1ST down
10.6%
0.0
Q2 10:50
Xavier Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 7
10.3%
-0.2
Q2 9:51
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd to the WIS 6
9.9%
-0.5
Q2 9:22
Xavier Williams run for no gain to the WIS 6
9.7%
-0.2
Q2 8:44
Drew Stevens 25 yd FG GOOD
5.8%
-3.9
Q2 8:44
PENALTY WIS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Peterson,Darryl) 15 yards from IOWA35 to IOWA50. NO PLAY.
9.9%
+4.1
WIS · Drive 12DOWNS · 7 plays · 32 yds
Q2 8:40
Drew Stevens kickoff for 27 yds , Gideon Ituka return for 8 yds to the WIS 31
5.9%
-4.0
Q2 8:36
Dilin Jones run for 13 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST down
8.4%
+2.5
Q2 7:58
Dilin Jones run for 10 yds to the IOWA 46 for a 1ST down
8.6%
+0.2
Q2 7:19
Dilin Jones run for 4 yds to the IOWA 42
9.1%
+0.4
Q2 6:38
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Vinny Anthony II
9.1%
0.0
Q2 6:34
Dilin Jones run for 5 yds to the IOWA 37
9.1%
0.0
Q2 5:57
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Lance Mason
9.1%
0.0
IOWA · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q2 5:51
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Dayton Howard
6.1%
-3.0
Q2 5:46
Nathan McNeil run for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 36
6.1%
0.0
Q2 4:57
Mark Gronowski run for 5 yds to the IOWA 41
5.9%
-0.2
Q2 4:16
Rhys Dakin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the WIS 18
5.8%
-0.2
WIS · Drive 14PUNT · 7 plays · 40 yds
Q2 3:51
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 8 yds to the WIS 26
7.7%
+1.9
Q2 3:35
Dilin Jones run for 6 yds to the WIS 32 for a 1ST down
7.7%
0.0
Q2 2:56
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 29 yds to the IOWA 39 for a 1ST down
7.7%
0.0
Q2 2:24
Dilin Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 42
8.5%
+0.8
Q2 1:54
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Tucker Ashcraft
8.5%
0.0
Q2 1:47
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Jayden Ballard
8.5%
0.0
Q2 1:40
Atticus Bertrams punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 6
8.5%
0.0
IOWA · Drive 15FG · 12 plays · 63 yds
Q2 1:34
Kamari Moulton run for 12 yds to the IOWA 18 for a 1ST down
5.2%
-3.3
Q2 1:20
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Seth Anderson for 4 yds to the IOWA 22
5.2%
0.0
Q2 1:11
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 16 yds to the IOWA 38 for a 1ST down
5.3%
+0.1
Q2 1:07
Timeout Iowa, clock 01:07
5.2%
-0.1
Q2 0:57
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 13 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST down
5.2%
0.0
Q2 0:47
Kamari Moulton run for 9 yds to the WIS 40
5.2%
0.0
Q2 0:39
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Xavier Williams for 6 yds to the WIS 34 for a 1ST down
5.1%
-0.1
Q2 0:29
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 5 yds to the WIS 29
5.1%
0.0
Q2 0:11
Mark Gronowski pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for 3 yds to the WIS 26
4.7%
-0.3
Q2 0:03
(00:03) Shotgun Moulton,Kamari rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS22 (Reiger,Mason) PENALTY IOWA Illegal Formation 5 yards from WIS26 to WIS31. NO PLAY.
4.6%
-0.2
Q2 0:03
Timeout Iowa, clock 00:03
4.5%
-0.1
Q2 0:00
Drew Stevens 49 yd FG GOOD
3.0%
-1.5
WIS · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q3 15:00
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
3.1%
+0.1
Q3 14:57
Dilin Jones run for 5 yds to the WIS 30
7.4%
+4.3
Q3 14:20
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the WIS 31
7.0%
-0.4
Q3 13:34
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Dilin Jones for no gain to the WIS 31
5.9%
-1.1
Q3 12:59
Atticus Bertrams punt for 45 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 17 yds to the IOWA 41
5.7%
-0.2
IOWA · Drive 17TD · 5 plays · 59 yds
Q3 12:54
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the IOWA 45
2.8%
-3.0
Q3 12:16
Kamari Moulton run for 14 yds to the WIS 41 for a 1ST down
2.7%
0.0
Q3 11:48
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the WIS 37
2.5%
-0.3
Q3 11:13
Xavier Williams run for 8 yds to the WIS 29 for a 1ST down
2.4%
0.0
Q3 10:34
Xavier Williams run for 29 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
2.0%
-0.4
WIS · Drive 18DOWNS · 12 plays · 31 yds
Q3 10:25
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds , Vinny Anthony II return for 24 yds to the WIS 24
2.0%
0.0
Q3 10:21
Dilin Jones run for 8 yds to the WIS 32
3.8%
+1.8
Q3 9:45
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the WIS 33
3.8%
0.0
Q3 9:01
Dilin Jones run for 3 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST down
3.8%
0.0
Q3 8:26
Dilin Jones run for 3 yds to the WIS 39
3.8%
0.0
Q3 7:50
Dilin Jones run for 3 yds to the WIS 42
3.8%
0.0
Q3 7:03
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 5 yds to the WIS 47 for a 1ST down
3.7%
-0.1
Q3 5:53
Vinny Anthony II run for a loss of 9 yards to the WIS 38 Vinny Anthony II fumbled, recovered by WIS Vinny Anthony II
3.6%
-0.1
Q3 5:27
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Cade Yacamelli for 14 yds to the IOWA 48
3.6%
0.0
Q3 5:12
Cade Yacamelli run for 3 yds to the IOWA 45
3.6%
0.0
Q3 4:30
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Grant Stec
3.7%
+0.1
Q3 4:30
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Grant Stec
3.7%
0.0
IOWA · Drive 19PUNT · 9 plays · 11 yds
Q3 4:26
(04:30) Shotgun Gronowski,Mark pass incomplete short middle to Washington Jr.,Terrell thrown to WIS44 PENALTY WIS Pass Interference offsetting IOWA Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting. NO PLAY.
1.9%
-1.8
Q3 3:20
Nathan McNeil run for 6 yds to the WIS 49
1.7%
-0.2
Q3 3:03
Nathan McNeil run for 3 yds to the WIS 46
1.7%
0.0
Q3 2:35
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Hayden Large for 2 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST down
1.7%
0.0
Q3 2:23
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the WIS 43
1.7%
0.0
Q3 1:41
Mark Gronowski pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for 3 yds to the WIS 40
1.7%
0.0
Q3 0:58
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 1 yd to the WIS 39
1.7%
0.0
Q3 0:17
PENALTY IOWA Delay Of Game 5 yards from WIS39 to WIS44. NO PLAY.
1.7%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Rhys Dakin punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the WIS 12
1.7%
0.0
WIS · Drive 20PUNT · 7 plays · 16 yds
Q4 14:57
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the WIS 13
3.1%
+1.4
Q4 14:14
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Dilin Jones
2.6%
-0.5
Q4 14:02
Hunter Simmons run for 9 yds to the WIS 22 for a 1ST down
2.6%
0.0
Q4 13:26
Cade Yacamelli run for no gain to the WIS 22
2.6%
0.0
Q4 12:48
Cade Yacamelli run for 6 yds to the WIS 28
2.6%
0.0
Q4 12:08
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Jayden Ballard
2.4%
-0.2
Q4 12:03
Atticus Bertrams punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WIS 46
2.4%
0.0
IOWA · Drive 21TD · 11 plays · 46 yds
Q4 11:58
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the WIS 43
1.5%
-1.0
Q4 11:24
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to KJ Parker
1.5%
0.0
Q4 11:14
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 12 yds to the WIS 31 for a 1ST down
1.5%
0.0
Q4 10:41
Xavier Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 32
1.5%
0.0
Q4 9:52
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 33
1.5%
0.0
Q4 8:58
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 11 yds to the WIS 22
1.5%
0.0
Q4 8:58
Timeout Wisconsin, clock 08:58
1.4%
-0.1
Q4 8:45
Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds to the WIS 20 for a 1ST down
1.4%
0.0
Q4 8:15
Mark Gronowski pass incomplete to Reece Vander Zee
1.4%
0.0
Q4 8:08
Nathan McNeil run for 1 yd to the WIS 19
1.4%
0.0
Q4 7:25
Xavier Williams run for 19 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
1.1%
-0.3
WIS · Drive 22PUNT · 7 plays · 15 yds
Q4 7:18
Drew Stevens kickoff for 65 yds , Vinny Anthony II return for 20 yds to the WIS 20
1.1%
0.0
Q4 7:14
Cade Yacamelli run for no gain to the WIS 20
1.8%
+0.7
Q4 6:36
Cade Yacamelli run for 12 yds to the WIS 32 for a 1ST down
1.8%
0.0
Q4 5:58
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Chris Brooks Jr.
1.8%
0.0
Q4 5:53
Cade Yacamelli run for no gain to the WIS 32
1.8%
0.0
Q4 5:11
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 3 yds to the WIS 35
1.8%
0.0
Q4 4:23
Atticus Bertrams punt for 46 yds
1.8%
0.0
IOWA · Drive 23PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q4 4:07
Nathan McNeil run for no gain to the IOWA 19
1.0%
-0.7
Q4 3:37
Nathan McNeil run for 4 yds to the IOWA 23
1.1%
0.0
Q4 2:42
Jeremy Hecklinski pass complete to Alex Eichmann for 2 yds to the IOWA 25
1.1%
0.0
Q4 2:19
Timeout Iowa, clock 02:19
1.0%
0.0
Q4 2:12
Rhys Dakin punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WIS 41 , Jayden Ballard returns for 6 yds to the WIS 41
1.0%
0.0
WIS · Drive 24END OF GAME · 5 plays · 24 yds
Q4 2:03
Gideon Ituka run for 3 yds to the WIS 44
1.8%
+0.7
Q4 1:51
Gideon Ituka run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
1.7%
-0.1
Q4 1:13
Gideon Ituka run for 5 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST down
1.7%
0.0
Q4 0:39
Gideon Ituka run for 5 yds to the IOWA 40
1.7%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Gideon Ituka run for 5 yds to the IOWA 35 for a 1ST down
1.8%
+0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:33
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q1 1:30
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-10.8
KEY PLAY · Q1 3:47
Nathan McNeil run for 4 yds to the WIS 20
-4.9
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com