YardLine - College football win probability

Northwestern 22 at Penn State 21

PSU

2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Beaver Stadium

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Win probability · PSU

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NU · Drive 1PUNT · 8 plays · 15 yds

Q1 15:00

Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

75.1%

0.0

Q1 15:00

Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the NU 26

72.0%

-3.1

Q1 15:00

Caleb Komolafe run for 5 yds to the NU 31

72.0%

0.0

Q1 15:00

Preston Stone run for no gain to the NU 31 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, off-side (Dani Dennis-Sutton) to the NU 36 for a 1ST down

72.3%

+0.3

Q1 15:00

Preston Stone pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 4 yds to the NU 40

72.0%

-0.3

Q1 15:00

Preston Stone pass incomplete to Drew Wagner

71.4%

-0.6

Q1 15:00

Preston Stone pass incomplete to Drew Wagner

71.4%

0.0

Q1 12:31

punt for no gain

70.6%

-2.6

PSU · Drive 2TD · 13 plays · 87 yds

Q1 15:00

Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 20 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST down

73.3%

+1.9

Q1 2:51

Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Penn State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Andrew Rappleyea)

59.7%

+5.1

Q1 2:51

Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 6 yds to the PSU 19

65.9%

+6.1

Q1 2:51

Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the PSU 29 for a 1ST down

65.9%

0.0

Q1 2:51

Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 33

65.9%

0.0

Q1 2:51

Drew Allar pass complete to Trebor Pena for 1 yd to the PSU 34

65.9%

0.0

Q2 15:00

Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the NU 41

65.9%

0.0

Q2 15:00

Liam Clifford run for 2 yds to the NU 39

66.5%

+0.6

Q2 15:00

Drew Allar pass complete to Trebor Pena for 4 yds to the NU 35 for a 1ST down

66.3%

-0.2

Q2 15:00

Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the NU 30

66.5%

+0.2

Q2 15:00

Drew Allar run for 10 yds to the NU 20 for a 1ST down

66.5%

0.0

Q2 15:00

Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the NU 11

66.5%

0.0

Q2 11:40

Kaytron Allen run for 11 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)

78.7%

+12.1

PSU · Drive 3INT · 5 plays · 21 yds

Q1 12:31

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the NU 28

76.2%

+5.6

Q1 12:31

Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 6 yds to the NU 22

76.2%

0.0

Q1 12:31

Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the NU 18 for a 1ST down

76.0%

-0.2

Q1 12:31

Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the NU 10

76.2%

+0.2

Q1 10:14

Ore Adeyi return for no gain to the NU 33

76.1%

0.0

NU · Drive 4FG · 12 plays · 58 yds

Q1 10:14

Joseph Himon II run for 1 yd to the NU 34

70.6%

-5.5

Q1 10:14

Joseph Himon II run for 8 yds to the NU 42

70.6%

0.0

Q1 10:14

Joseph Himon II run for 6 yds to the NU 48 for a 1ST down

69.6%

-1.0

Q1 10:14

Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 13 yds to the PSU 39 for a 1ST down

68.9%

-0.7

Q1 10:14

Preston Stone pass complete to Alex Lines for 7 yds to the PSU 32

68.2%

-0.7

Q1 10:14

Preston Stone pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 10 yds to the PSU 22 for a 1ST down

68.2%

0.0

Q1 10:14

Joseph Himon II run for 1 yd to the PSU 21

68.2%

0.0

Q1 10:14

Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the PSU 18 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (Alonzo Ford Jr.) to the PSU 9 for a 1ST down

68.2%

0.0

Q1 10:14

Preston Stone sacked by Zane Durant for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 13

64.2%

-4.0

Q1 4:22

Dashun Reeder run for no gain to the PSU 13

64.2%

-0.1

Q1 4:22

Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the PSU 9

64.2%

0.0

Q1 2:51

Jack Olsen 27 yd FG GOOD

54.7%

-9.5

NU · Drive 5TD · 9 plays · 75 yds

Q2 11:40

Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

77.7%

-1.0

Q2 11:40

Caleb Komolafe run for 6 yds to the NU 31

72.8%

-4.9

Q2 11:40

Caleb Komolafe run for 6 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST down

72.8%

0.0

Q2 11:40

Preston Stone run for 3 yds to the NU 40

72.8%

0.0

Q2 9:47

Preston Stone pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 3 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, personal foul (Dejuan Lane) to the PSU 42 for a 1ST down

70.9%

-1.8

Q2 9:47

Joseph Himon II run for 1 yd to the PSU 41

69.4%

-1.5

Q2 9:47

Joseph Himon II run for 2 yds to the PSU 39

69.4%

0.0

Q2 9:47

Preston Stone pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 10 yds to the PSU 29 for a 1ST down

69.1%

-0.3

Q2 7:14

Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 29 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) (Jack Olsen KICK)

51.0%

-18.1

PSU · Drive 6PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds

Q2 7:08

Luke Akers kickoff for 61 yds , Corey Smith return for 34 yds to the PSU 38

52.9%

+1.9

Q2 7:08

Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 36

58.7%

+5.8

Q2 7:08

Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PSU 41

58.3%

-0.4

Q2 7:08

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kyron Hudson, broken up by Josh Fussell

58.7%

+0.4

Q2 5:39

Gabriel Nwosu punt for 35 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 2 yds to the NU 26, fumbles, recovered by Penn State at the NU 26

58.2%

-0.5

PSU · Drive 7TD · 9 plays · 26 yds

Q2 5:39

Drew Allar run for 4 yds to the NU 22

60.3%

+2.1

Q2 5:39

Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds to the NU 15 for a 1ST down

60.3%

0.0

Q2 5:39

Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the NU 14

60.3%

0.0

Q2 5:39

Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the NU 11

60.3%

0.0

Q2 5:39

Drew Allar run for 7 yds to the NU 4 for a 1ST down

60.1%

-0.2

Q2 5:39

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas Singleton

56.0%

-4.1

Q2 5:39

Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the NU 2

56.0%

0.0

Q2 2:00

Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the NU 2

53.0%

-3.0

Q2 1:19

Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)

71.7%

+18.7

NU · Drive 8FG · 13 plays · 59 yds

Q2 1:19

Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

74.6%

+2.9

Q2 1:19

Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the NU 27

70.3%

-4.3

Q2 1:15

Caleb Komolafe run for no gain to the NU 27 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Zuriah Fisher) to the NU 42 for a 1ST down

70.3%

0.0

Q2 1:15

Preston Stone pass complete to Caleb Komolafe for 9 yds to the PSU 49

69.3%

-1.0

Q2 1:15

Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the PSU 48 for a 1ST down

68.3%

-0.9

Q2 1:15

Preston Stone pass incomplete

68.3%

0.0

Q2 1:15

Preston Stone pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 16 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST down

68.3%

0.0

Q2 1:15

Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hunter Welcing

67.7%

-0.7

Q2 1:15

Preston Stone pass incomplete to Drew Wagner for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, roughing passer (Zuriah Fisher) to the PSU 17 for a 1ST down

67.7%

0.0

Q2 1:15

Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hunter Welcing

67.7%

0.0

Q2 1:15

Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II, broken up by Elliot Washington II

67.7%

0.0

Q2 1:15

Preston Stone run for 1 yd to the PSU 16

67.7%

0.0

Q2 0:03

J. Olsen 34 yd FG GOOD

61.6%

-6.0

PSU · Drive 9PUNT · 8 plays · 14 yds

Q3 15:00

Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Northwestern Penalty, illegal formation (Garner Wallace)

63.8%

+2.1

Q3 15:00

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 33

67.7%

+3.9

Q3 15:00

Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 35

67.7%

0.0

Q3 15:00

Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST down

67.7%

0.0

Q3 15:00

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kyron Hudson

68.3%

+0.6

Q3 15:00

Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 44

68.3%

0.0

Q3 15:00

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Trebor Pena

68.0%

-0.2

Q3 12:15

Gabriel Nwosu punt for 54 yds

67.3%

+10.7

NU · Drive 10FG · 4 plays · -14 yds

Q3 15:00

Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the PSU 8

56.6%

-11.4

Q4 15:00

Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II

46.8%

-6.9

Q4 15:00

Preston Stone sacked by Zuriah Fisher for a loss of 15 yards to the PSU 23

46.8%

0.0

Q4 14:08

Jack Olsen 41 yd FG GOOD

35.2%

-11.6

NU · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · 19 yds

Q3 12:15

Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the NU 6

63.4%

-3.9

Q3 12:15

Caleb Komolafe run for 8 yds to the NU 14 for a 1ST down

63.4%

0.0

Q3 12:15

Caleb Komolafe run for no gain to the NU 14

63.4%

0.0

Q3 12:15

Preston Stone run for 7 yds to the NU 21

63.4%

0.0

Q3 12:15

Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hunter Welcing

63.4%

0.0

Q3 9:13

Luke Akers punt for 49 yds

62.3%

-1.1

PSU · Drive 12PUNT · 7 plays · 25 yds

Q3 9:13

Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST down

66.5%

+4.2

Q3 9:13

Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 43

67.1%

+0.6

Q3 9:13

Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 10 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST down

67.1%

0.0

Q3 9:13

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaytron Allen

67.5%

+0.5

Q3 9:13

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Luke Reynolds

67.5%

0.0

Q3 9:13

Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the NU 45

67.3%

-0.2

Q3 6:19

Gabriel Nwosu punt for 35 yds

63.1%

-4.2

NU · Drive 13PUNT · 10 plays · 29 yds

Q3 6:19

Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 1 yd to the NU 11

58.1%

-5.0

Q3 6:19

Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the NU 12

58.1%

0.0

Q3 6:19

Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 12 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST down

58.1%

0.0

Q3 6:19

Preston Stone pass complete to Drew Wagner for 8 yds to the NU 32

58.1%

0.0

Q3 6:19

Joseph Himon II run for 5 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST down

58.1%

0.0

Q3 6:19

Preston Stone pass complete to Drew Wagner for no gain to the NU 37

58.1%

0.0

Q3 6:19

Joseph Himon II run for 7 yds to the NU 44

58.1%

0.0

Q3 6:19

Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the NU 44

56.3%

-1.7

Q3 6:19

Northwestern Penalty, delay of game (Luke Akers) to the NU 39

56.7%

+0.3

Q3 0:30

Luke Akers punt for 49 yds , Devonte Ross returns for no gain to the PSU 9

53.8%

-2.9

PSU · Drive 14TD · 7 plays · 91 yds

Q4 14:04

Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds , Tyler Holzworth return for 9 yds to the PSU 9

36.3%

+1.0

Q4 14:04

Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 1 yd to the PSU 10

41.4%

+5.2

Q4 14:04

Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 14

41.4%

0.0

Q4 14:04

Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 67 yds to the NU 19 for a 1ST down

41.4%

0.0

Q4 14:04

Kaytron Allen run for 18 yds to the NU 1 for a 1ST down

44.0%

+2.5

Q4 14:04

Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the NU 1

39.7%

-4.3

Q4 10:50

Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)

68.2%

+28.5

NU · Drive 15TD · 13 plays · 75 yds

Q4 10:45

Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

70.3%

+2.1

Q4 10:45

Preston Stone pass incomplete to Griffin Wilde, broken up by Dominic DeLuca

61.8%

-8.5

Q4 10:45

Preston Stone pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 2 yds to the NU 27

61.8%

0.0

Q4 10:45

Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 16 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST down

61.8%

0.0

Q4 10:45

Joseph Himon II run for 9 yds to the PSU 48

60.9%

-0.9

Q4 10:45

Joseph Himon II run for 5 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST down

59.9%

-1.0

Q4 10:45

Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 12 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST down

59.3%

-0.7

Q4 10:45

Dashun Reeder run for no gain to the PSU 31

59.3%

0.0

Q4 10:45

Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 11 yds to the PSU 20 for a 1ST down

59.3%

0.0

Q4 10:45

Caleb Komolafe run for 9 yds to the PSU 11

59.3%

0.0

Q4 10:45

Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the PSU 9 for a 1ST down

59.3%

0.0

Q4 4:51

Caleb Komolafe 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

27.2%

-32.0

Q4 4:51

Caleb Komolafe run for no gain to the NU 35

27.2%

0.0

PSU · Drive 16DOWNS · 5 plays · 7 yds

Q4 4:51

Luke Akers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

32.2%

+5.0

Q4 4:51

Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 22

39.9%

+7.7

Q4 4:51

Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 9 yds to the PSU 31

39.9%

0.0

Q4 4:51

Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the PSU 32

39.9%

0.0

Q4 3:00

Ethan Grunkemeyer run for no gain to the PSU 32

37.9%

-2.1

NU · Drive 17Uncategorized · 8 plays · 22 yds

Q4 3:00

Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the PSU 28

29.2%

-8.6

Q4 3:00

Caleb Komolafe run for 3 yds to the PSU 25

29.2%

0.0

Q4 2:00

Caleb Komolafe run for 5 yds to the PSU 20 for a 1ST down

28.2%

-1.0

Q4 2:00

Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the PSU 19

28.2%

0.0

Q4 1:19

Joseph Himon II run for 17 yds to the PSU 2 for a 1ST down

25.8%

-2.4

Q4 1:13

Preston Stone run for a loss of 6 yards to the PSU 8

22.8%

-3.0

Q4 1:10

Preston Stone run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 10

22.8%

0.0

Q4 1:10

Preston Stone run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 10

25.8%

+3.0

Biggest swings

TD · Q4 4:51

Caleb Komolafe 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

-32

TD · Q4 10:50

Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)

+28.5

TD · Q2 1:19

Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)

+18.7