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UCLA

UCLA 38 at Michigan State 13

MSU
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:41 · Ryan Eckley punt for 44 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 17 yds to the UCLA 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense−14.9Pregame prior+12.0Score differential−7.3Offense timeouts−10.6Defense timeouts−9.0Garbage-time factor−4.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:17: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for 3 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +8.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q1 9:07: Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK) — UCLA win probability +5.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q1 1:39: Jalen Berger run for 16 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +8.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q2 4:09: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 12 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +19.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:55: Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +7.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:56UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UCLA 4th & 1 at MSU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:41UCLA 4th & 4 at MSU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:04MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:38MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:41MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:19UCLA 4th & 5 at MSU 16, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−8.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:43MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:41MSU 4th & 6 at UCLA 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:41UCLA 4th & 2 at MSU 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−2.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−14.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:56MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:08UCLA 4th & 9 at MSU 47, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:59MSU 4th & 8 at UCLA 42, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:07MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:39UCLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:09UCLA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:55UCLA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:44UCLA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0428% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.8%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Garrett DiGiorgio) to the UCLA 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi GilmerSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
71.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 5 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.5%
Will Karoll punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 19:4328% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
71.8%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Quindarius Dunnigan and Cam Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
51.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi GilmerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+14
51.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 14 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+20
50.8%
Cole Martin run for 20 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
49.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 22 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
49.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for 8 yds to the MSU 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+1
49.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the MSU 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
50.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi GilmerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
51.4%
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the MSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
43.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for 3 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:4971% → 66%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
70.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 6 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
70.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+17
70.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 17 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
70.5%
Nick Marsh run for 6 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
70.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+5
70.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 5 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
70.6%
Omari Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+9
70.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 9 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+13
70.5%
Makhi Frazier run for 13 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:2633% → 37%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
67.3%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Courtland Ford) to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
67.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+26
67.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 26 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer, broken up by Aydan WestSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
67.7%
Nico Iamaleava run for 9 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
67.7%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
67.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 5 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+1
67.9%
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
63.0%
Mateen Bhaghani 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3760% → 57%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.7%
Brandon Tullis run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
59.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
59.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 5 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
56.6%
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the MSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:2540% → 49%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
59.7%
Anthony Woods run for 17 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
59.9%
Anthony Woods run for 1 yd to the MSU 16Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
51.4%
Jalen Berger run for 16 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5751% → 49%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
51.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
51.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the MSU 17Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
50.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Michael MasunasSimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+2
48.7%
Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 2 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8Uncategorized
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:0335% → 36%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
35.5%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
35.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 8 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
35.5%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Devin Aupiu for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 32 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by UCLA Siale Taupaki , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:0556% → 75%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
43.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer, broken up by Joshua EatonSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
43.8%
Anthony Woods run for 11 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
44.2%
Anthony Woods run for 3 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
44.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 4 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+5
44.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 5 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
44.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 10Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
44.1%
Nico Iamaleava run for 3 yds to the MSU 7Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
43.9%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Courtland Ford) to the MSU 12Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
24.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 12 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2824% → 24%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.1%
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
23.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 4 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
21.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Makhi FrazierSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+17
24.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 44 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 17 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:2279% → 89%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+37
21.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 37 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
21.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the MSU 21 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Courtland Ford) to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+8
10.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 8 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-10
10.4%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the MSU 23 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Kwazi Gilmer) to the MSU 33Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 22
OPP 33
+4
10.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 18
OPP 29
+13
10.4%
Jalen Berger run for 13 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
11.1%
Mateen Bhaghani 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:3618% → 17%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
17.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brandon Tullis for 11 yds to the MSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
17.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
17.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
17.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+9
16.8%
Ryan Eckley punt for 43 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 9 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:1925% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 7 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
22.4%
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
22.2%
Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
26.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray, broken up by Cole Martin for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Defensive holding (Jalen Berger) to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
27.1%
Brandon Tullis run for 2 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
26.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 7 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
23.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
27.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
27.2%
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
25.7%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick Marsh, broken up by Rodrick PleasantSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
12.6%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick Marsh, broken up by Andre Jordan Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 16:5127% → 4%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
26.8%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 5 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
4.2%
Makhi Frazier run for 8 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
4.0%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
4.7%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Kai RiosSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+22
3.3%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 22 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
4.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 10 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
4.0%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
3.8%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.7%
Nick Marsh 5 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 6:4687% → 95%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
13.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 17 yds to the MSU 45 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Noah Fox-Flores) to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 3
OWN 45
0
12.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
13.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
50
+24
13.0%
Jalen Berger run for 24 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
13.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for 8 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+3
13.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the MSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
13.0%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+1
13.0%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MSU 12Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+5
13.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Frias II for 5 yds to the MSU 7Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+4
14.4%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the MSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
12.5%
Anthony Frias II run for 2 yds to the MSU 1Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.1%
Alessio Milivojevic run for 9 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
2.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Michael Masunas, broken up by Rodrick PleasantSimilar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
1.9%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:1295% → 98%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
5.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
5.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 9 yds to the MSU 24Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+16
5.4%
Anthony Frias II run for 7 yds to the MSU 17 Michigan State Penalty, personal foul (Malik Spencer) to the MSU 8Similar
Q3 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
5.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr., broken up by Dontavius Nash UCLA Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the MSU 13Similar
Q3 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
1.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for 13 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 6:0199% → 99%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
1.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 11 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
1.1%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
1.1%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 1
50
+2
1.1%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
1.1%
Anthony Frias II run for 6 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
1.1%
Anthony Frias II run for no gain to the MSU 42Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-5
1.1%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Alex VanSumeren and Grady Kelly for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 47Similar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
0.6%
Will Karoll punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:090% → 0%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
0.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick Marsh, broken up by Jalen WoodsSimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
0.1%
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+23
0.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 23 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
0.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Jack Velling for 7 yds to the MSU 43Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+13
0.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 13 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.1%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 2 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20Uncategorized
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.4%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
0.4%
Jalen Berger run for 15 yds to the MSU 43 Jalen Berger fumbled, recovered by UCLA Noah Fox-Flores for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.4%
Anthony Frias II run for no gain to the MSU 43Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+18
0.1%
Anthony Frias II run for 18 yds to the MSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
0.1%
Troy Leigber run for 3 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
0.1%
Anthony Frias II run for 4 yds to the MSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:09
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 12 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-19.2
TD · Q1 1:39
Jalen Berger run for 16 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q2 10:17
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for 3 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com