UCLA
UCLA 38 at Michigan State 13
MSU2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
UCLA · Drive 1PUNT · 6 plays · 0 yds
Q1 15:00
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds
51.4%
0.0
Q1 15:00
UCLA Penalty, false start (Garrett DiGiorgio) to the UCLA 20
48.6%
-2.9
Q1 15:00
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.
48.6%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer
48.6%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 5 yds to the UCLA 25
48.6%
0.0
Q1 13:56
Will Karoll punt for 34 yds
48.0%
+5.5
UCLA · Drive 2TD · 10 plays · 63 yds
Q1 15:00
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Quindarius Dunnigan and Cam Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 31
42.5%
-6.1
Q2 15:00
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer
37.7%
-6.7
Q2 15:00
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 14 yds to the UCLA 45
37.7%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Cole Martin run for 20 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down
36.6%
-1.1
Q2 15:00
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 22 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST down
35.9%
-0.7
Q2 15:00
Jaivian Thomas run for 8 yds to the MSU 5
35.9%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the MSU 4
35.9%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer
35.9%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the MSU 3 for a 1ST down
36.6%
+0.7
Q2 10:17
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for 3 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
25.1%
-11.6
MSU · Drive 3TD · 10 plays · 59 yds
Q1 13:56
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 6 yds to the MSU 47
52.6%
+4.7
Q1 13:56
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
52.6%
0.0
Q1 13:56
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 17 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST down
52.4%
-0.3
Q1 13:56
Nick Marsh run for 6 yds to the UCLA 30
54.0%
+1.6
Q1 13:56
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the UCLA 27
54.0%
0.0
Q1 13:56
Aidan Chiles run for 5 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST down
53.7%
-0.3
Q1 13:56
Omari Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 24
54.0%
+0.3
Q1 13:56
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 9 yds to the UCLA 15
54.0%
0.0
Q1 13:56
Makhi Frazier run for 13 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST down
53.7%
-0.3
Q1 9:07
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
66.9%
+13.1
UCLA · Drive 4FG · 12 plays · 46 yds
Q1 9:07
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds
66.1%
-0.7
Q1 9:07
Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds to the UCLA 32
64.9%
-1.3
Q1 9:07
UCLA Penalty, false start (Courtland Ford) to the UCLA 27
64.9%
0.0
Q1 9:07
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the UCLA 27
64.9%
0.0
Q1 9:07
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 26 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST down
64.9%
0.0
Q1 9:07
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer, broken up by Aydan West
63.0%
-1.9
Q1 9:07
Nico Iamaleava run for 9 yds to the MSU 38
63.0%
0.0
Q1 9:07
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down
62.7%
-0.3
Q1 9:07
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mikey Matthews
62.7%
0.0
Q1 9:07
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 5 yds to the MSU 30
62.7%
0.0
Q1 9:07
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the MSU 29
62.7%
0.0
Q1 4:41
Mateen Bhaghani 47 yd FG GOOD
52.8%
-9.8
MSU · Drive 5DOWNS · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q1 4:41
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 65 yds
55.1%
+2.3
Q1 4:41
Brandon Tullis run for 4 yds to the MSU 29
57.7%
+2.6
Q1 4:41
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
57.7%
0.0
Q1 4:41
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 5 yds to the MSU 34
57.7%
0.0
Q1 3:04
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the MSU 34
57.0%
-0.7
UCLA · Drive 6TD · 3 plays · 34 yds
Q1 3:04
Anthony Woods run for 17 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST down
52.0%
-5.0
Q1 3:04
Anthony Woods run for 1 yd to the MSU 16
52.0%
0.0
Q1 1:39
Jalen Berger run for 16 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
37.8%
-14.2
MSU · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q1 1:35
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 62 yds , Chrishon McCray return for 10 yds to the MSU 13
39.6%
+1.8
Q1 1:35
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
44.6%
+5.0
Q1 1:35
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the MSU 17
44.6%
0.0
Q1 1:35
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Michael Masunas
44.6%
0.0
Q1 0:38
Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 2 yds to the UCLA 37
44.4%
-0.2
MSU · Drive 8Uncategorized · 5 plays · 17 yds
Q2 10:17
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 65 yds
26.5%
+1.4
Q2 10:17
Makhi Frazier run for 6 yds to the MSU 31
29.4%
+2.9
Q2 10:17
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 34
29.4%
0.0
Q2 10:17
Makhi Frazier run for 8 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down
29.4%
0.0
Q2 8:14
Aidan Chiles sacked by Devin Aupiu for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 32 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by UCLA Siale Taupaki , return for 0 yards
25.4%
-3.9
UCLA · Drive 9TD · 9 plays · 32 yds
Q2 8:14
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer, broken up by Joshua Eaton
23.5%
-1.9
Q2 8:14
Anthony Woods run for 11 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST down
23.5%
0.0
Q2 8:14
Anthony Woods run for 3 yds to the MSU 18
23.5%
0.0
Q2 8:14
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 4 yds to the MSU 14
23.5%
0.0
Q2 8:14
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 5 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST down
23.5%
0.0
Q2 8:14
Jaivian Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 10
23.5%
0.0
Q2 8:14
Nico Iamaleava run for 3 yds to the MSU 7
23.5%
0.0
Q2 8:14
UCLA Penalty, false start (Courtland Ford) to the MSU 12
23.5%
0.0
Q2 4:09
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 12 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
11.9%
-11.6
MSU · Drive 10PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q2 4:09
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
12.2%
+0.3
Q2 4:09
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the MSU 27
14.3%
+2.1
Q2 4:09
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 4 yds to the MSU 31
14.3%
0.0
Q2 4:09
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Makhi Frazier
14.3%
0.0
Q2 2:41
Ryan Eckley punt for 44 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 17 yds to the UCLA 42
14.3%
0.0
UCLA · Drive 11MISSED FG · 7 plays · 42 yds
Q2 2:41
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 37 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST down
11.7%
-2.5
Q2 2:41
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the MSU 21 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Courtland Ford) to the MSU 31
11.8%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 8 yds to the MSU 23
11.2%
-0.6
Q2 1:46
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the MSU 23 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Kwazi Gilmer) to the MSU 33
11.2%
0.0
Q2 1:46
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 4 yds to the MSU 29
11.2%
0.0
Q2 1:31
Jalen Berger run for 13 yds to the MSU 16
11.2%
0.0
Q2 1:19
Mateen Bhaghani 34 yd FG MISSED
11.2%
0.0
MSU · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · 11 yds
Q2 1:19
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brandon Tullis for 11 yds to the MSU 31 for a 1ST down
14.2%
+3.0
Q2 1:19
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
14.2%
0.0
Q2 1:19
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
14.2%
0.0
Q2 1:19
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
14.2%
0.0
Q2 0:43
Ryan Eckley punt for 43 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 9 yds to the UCLA 35
13.8%
-0.4
MSU · Drive 13DOWNS · 12 plays · 37 yds
Q3 15:00
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
10.9%
-2.9
Q3 15:00
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 7 yds to the MSU 32
13.3%
+2.4
Q3 15:00
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 31
13.3%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down
13.3%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray, broken up by Cole Martin for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Defensive holding (Jalen Berger) to the MSU 47 for a 1ST down
13.3%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Brandon Tullis run for 2 yds to the MSU 49
13.8%
+0.5
Q3 15:00
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 7 yds to the UCLA 44
13.8%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST down
14.7%
+0.9
Q3 15:00
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
14.7%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds to the UCLA 38
14.7%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick Marsh, broken up by Rodrick Pleasant
14.7%
0.0
Q3 10:41
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick Marsh, broken up by Andre Jordan Jr.
13.4%
+8.2
MSU · Drive 14TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 5 yds to the UCLA 48
5.2%
-9.5
Q3 1:44
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
4.2%
0.0
Q3 1:44
Makhi Frazier run for 8 yds to the MSU 33
4.3%
+0.1
Q3 1:44
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST down
4.3%
0.0
Q3 1:44
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Kai Rios
4.3%
+0.1
Q4 15:00
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 22 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST down
4.1%
-0.2
Q4 15:00
Makhi Frazier run for 10 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST down
4.4%
+0.3
Q4 14:00
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST down
4.3%
-0.2
Q4 14:00
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
4.3%
0.0
Q4 13:09
Nick Marsh 5 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington PAT failed)
4.4%
+0.1
UCLA · Drive 15TD · 12 plays · 62 yds
Q3 10:41
Jaivian Thomas run for 17 yds to the MSU 45 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Noah Fox-Flores) to the UCLA 45
10.1%
-3.3
Q3 10:41
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the UCLA 45
10.1%
0.0
Q3 10:41
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
10.1%
0.0
Q3 10:41
Jalen Berger run for 24 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST down
10.1%
0.0
Q3 10:41
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for 8 yds to the MSU 18
9.9%
-0.2
Q3 10:41
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the MSU 15 for a 1ST down
9.9%
0.0
Q3 10:41
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the MSU 13
9.9%
0.0
Q3 10:41
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MSU 12
9.9%
0.0
Q3 10:41
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Frias II for 5 yds to the MSU 7
9.9%
0.0
Q3 10:41
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the MSU 3 for a 1ST down
9.9%
0.0
Q3 10:41
Anthony Frias II run for 2 yds to the MSU 1
9.9%
0.0
Q3 3:55
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
5.1%
-4.9
MSU · Drive 16DOWNS · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q3 3:55
Mateen Bhaghani kickoff for 65 yds
5.0%
0.0
Q3 3:55
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
4.5%
-0.6
Q3 3:55
Alessio Milivojevic run for 9 yds to the MSU 34
4.5%
0.0
Q3 3:55
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Michael Masunas, broken up by Rodrick Pleasant
4.5%
0.0
Q3 2:56
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 33
4.5%
0.0
UCLA · Drive 17TD · 5 plays · 33 yds
Q3 2:56
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mikey Matthews
5.0%
+0.5
Q3 2:56
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 9 yds to the MSU 24
5.0%
0.0
Q3 2:56
Anthony Frias II run for 7 yds to the MSU 17 Michigan State Penalty, personal foul (Malik Spencer) to the MSU 8
5.0%
0.0
Q3 2:56
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr., broken up by Dontavius Nash UCLA Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the MSU 13
5.0%
0.0
Q3 1:44
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for 13 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
4.2%
-0.8
UCLA · Drive 18PUNT · 10 plays · 28 yds
Q4 13:09
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
6.8%
+2.4
Q4 13:09
Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30
4.8%
-2.0
Q4 13:09
Jaivian Thomas run for 11 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST down
4.8%
0.0
Q4 13:09
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the UCLA 46
4.8%
0.0
Q4 13:09
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line
4.8%
0.0
Q4 13:09
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST down
4.8%
0.0
Q4 13:09
Anthony Frias II run for 6 yds to the MSU 42
4.8%
0.0
Q4 13:09
Anthony Frias II run for no gain to the MSU 42
4.8%
0.0
Q4 13:09
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Alex VanSumeren and Grady Kelly for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 47
4.8%
0.0
Q4 7:08
Will Karoll punt for 36 yds
5.3%
+0.5
MSU · Drive 19DOWNS · 9 plays · 47 yds
Q4 7:08
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick Marsh, broken up by Jalen Woods
8.1%
+2.7
Q4 7:08
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the MSU 13
8.1%
0.0
Q4 7:08
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 23 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST down
8.1%
0.0
Q4 7:08
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Jack Velling for 7 yds to the MSU 43
8.1%
0.0
Q4 7:08
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 13 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST down
8.1%
0.0
Q4 7:08
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Jack Velling
8.1%
0.0
Q4 7:08
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray
8.1%
0.0
Q4 7:08
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 2 yds to the UCLA 42
8.1%
0.0
Q4 3:59
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray
9.0%
+0.9
UCLA · Drive 20Uncategorized · 6 plays · 36 yds
Q4 3:59
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the UCLA 42
5.9%
-3.2
Q4 3:59
Jalen Berger run for 15 yds to the MSU 43 Jalen Berger fumbled, recovered by UCLA Noah Fox-Flores for a 1ST down
5.9%
0.0
Q4 3:59
Anthony Frias II run for no gain to the MSU 43
5.9%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Anthony Frias II run for 18 yds to the MSU 25 for a 1ST down
5.8%
-0.1
Q4 2:00
Troy Leigber run for 3 yds to the MSU 22
5.8%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Anthony Frias II run for 4 yds to the MSU 22
5.8%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:39
Jalen Berger run for 16 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q1 9:07
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q2 10:17
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for 3 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-11.6