2025 · Week 7 · Oct 10, 2025 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · D. Williams Jr. takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:39: Jai Patel 37 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +7.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:01: Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +9.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:06: Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 38 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +9.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:17: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 48 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — RUTG win probability +14.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:53: Demond Williams Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +11.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4RUTG made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 10:53WASH 4th & 7 at RUTG 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snapGo for it72.6%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call72.7%74% to makePunt72.0%−0.7average punt
- Q1 5:38RUTG 4th & 11 at WASH 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snapGo for it30.4%−0.424% to convertField goalTheir call30.8%80% to makePunt29.1%−1.7average punt
- Q1 3:33WASH 4th & 19 at WASH 4, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it65.1%−1.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.2%average punt
- Q1 1:59RUTG 4th & 5 at WASH 27, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snapGo for it34.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call34.0%62% to makePunt32.2%−1.8average punt
- Q1 0:12WASH 4th & 15 at WASH 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snapGo for it62.6%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.4%average punt
- Q2 14:41RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 7, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.4%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q2 6:49RUTG 4th & 3 at WASH 6, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.3%46% to convertField goal35.5%−0.891% to makePunt30.0%−6.3average punt
- Q2 0:39RUTG 4th & 18 at WASH 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snapGo for it37.2%−2.911% to convertField goalTheir call40.1%77% to makePunt33.9%−6.1average punt
- Q3 11:19RUTG 4th & 17 at RUTG 18, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it25.4%−2.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.6%average punt
- Q3 5:29WASH 4th & 2 at RUTG 38, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.7%57% to convertField goal72.5%−3.138% to makePunt72.5%−3.1average punt
- Q4 14:45RUTG 4th & 4 at WASH 29, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.4%48% to convertField goal11.9%−0.558% to makePunt7.4%−5.0average punt
- Q4 13:15RUTG 4th & 1 at WASH 13, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.7%71% to convertField goal10.2%−1.585% to makePunt4.4%−7.3average punt
- Q4 11:46RUTG 4th & 10 at WASH 11, down 12Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 10.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.6%−1.524% to convertField goal11.1%87% to makePunt5.6%−5.5average punt
- Q4 4:47RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.4%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 13:42RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.0%97% to makeGo for two26.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:21WASH Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.8%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:01WASH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.9%97% to makeGo for two71.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:06WASH Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.6%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:17RUTG Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick27.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call27.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:53WASH Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.6%97% to makeGo for two87.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:52WASH Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%−0.497% to makeGo for two98.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1427% → 27%
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
72.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 20 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2MISSED FG7 plays · 72 yds · 2:3373% → 72%
RUTGDrive 3FG16 plays · 62 yds · 5:1029% → 32%
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
71.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 4 yds to the RUTG 25Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
71.1%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete deep right to Sheffield,DT thrown to WASH42 PENALTY WASH Illegal Substitution 5 yards from RU25 to RU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+24
69.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 24 yds to the WASH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
69.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ja'shon Benjamin for 6 yds to the WASH 33Similar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
68.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 4 yds to the WASH 12Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 6
OPP 12
-5
67.9%
(05:43) PENALTY RU False Start (Giwa,Moshood) 5 yards from WASH12 to WASH17. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:5468% → 65%
Q1 4:23
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-7
66.6%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Jordan Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the WASH 8Similar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 15
OWN 8
-4
65.0%
(03:46) Dunne,Luke punt 35 yards to the WASH43 fair catch by Sheffield,DT at WASH43 PENALTY WASH Illegal Formation 4 yards from WASH08 to WASH04. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5MISSED FG4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2835% → 35%
Q1 2:44
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+4
65.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 4 yds to the WASH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3564% → 62%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
64.0%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 18 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2636% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD5 plays · 50 yds · 1:1363% → 68%
RUTGDrive 9DOWNS15 plays · 76 yds · 6:1933% → 37%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
66.3%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass intercepted by Davis,Tacario at RU48, End Of Play PENALTY WASH Pass Interference (Davis,Tacario) 15 yards from RU32 to RU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
65.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Bryce Butler for a loss of 3 yards to the RUTG 44Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+17
65.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 17 yds to the WASH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+11
64.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 11 yds to the WASH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
63.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 15 yds to the WASH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
61.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 3 yds to the WASH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10FUMBLE10 plays · 91 yds · 4:3964% → 65%
Q2 5:26
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+28
61.0%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 28 yds to the WASH 35 for a 1ST down Rutgers Penalty, Defensive Offside (DT Sheffield) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
62.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 13 yds to the WASH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
64.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 22 yds to the RUTG 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
65.2%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 16 yds to the RUTG 3 Demond Williams Jr. fumbled, recovered by RUTG Dariel DjabomeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11FG11 plays · 78 yds · 1:2140% → 48%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
60.0%
(01:59) PENALTY RU False Start (Needham,Tyler) 1 yard from RU03 to RU02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+34
59.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 34 yds to the RUTG 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+41
58.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 41 yds to the WASH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+9
53.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 9 yds to the WASH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 15
OPP 16
-3
56.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei for a loss of 3 yards to the WASH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12FG9 plays · 57 yds · 0:2853% → 65%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
53.1%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Omari Evans for 13 yds Omari Evans fumbled, recovered by RUTG Omari Evans for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
53.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Raiden Vines-Bright for 30 yds to the RUTG 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
58.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 14 yds to the RUTG 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4761% → 74%
RUTGDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3729% → 27%
Q3 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
70.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 2 yds to the RUTG 28Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
71.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 5 yds to the RUTG 33 Rutgers Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Taj White) to the RUTG 18Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+3
72.6%
Jakob Anderson punt for 45 yds , Denzel Boston returns for 3 yds to the WASH 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD3 plays · 60 yds · 1:0472% → 85%
RUTGDrive 16TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4018% → 32%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the RUTG 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
82.2%
(09:35) Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan pass incomplete deep left to Duff,KJ thrown to WASH24 PENALTY WASH Pass Interference (Prysock,Ephesians) 15 yards from RU37 to WASH48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
68.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 48 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1674% → 89%
Q3 8:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
73.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Raiden Vines-Bright for 8 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+20
74.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 20 yds to the RUTG 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
76.7%
PENALTY WASH False Start (McCree,Maximus) 5 yards from RU46 to WASH49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+6
76.0%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 6 yds to the RUTG 38Similar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+13
74.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 13 yds to the RUTG 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
77.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 11 yds to the RUTG 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18DOWNS20 plays · 73 yds · 6:0113% → 11%
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 9 yds to the RUTG 34Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
87.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 8 yds to the RUTG 44Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
86.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 4 yds to the RUTG 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
86.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 17 yds to the WASH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
85.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 6 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+7
87.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 7 yds to the WASH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
85.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 8 yds to the WASH 14Similar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
86.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for no gain to the WASH 11Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+9
88.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 9 yds to the WASH 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19TD8 plays · 97 yds · 4:4793% → 99%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+32
92.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Omari Evans for 32 yds to the WASH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
93.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Quentin Moore for 6 yds to the RUTG 46Similar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
94.1%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 30 yds to the RUTG 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
94.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Chris Lawson for 5 yds to the RUTG 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20INT15 plays · 71 yds · 4:583% → 3%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
97.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Bryce Butler for a loss of 3 yards to the RUTG 22Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
98.1%
(05:57) Shotgun Kaliakmanis,Athan sacked for loss of 6 yards to the RU21 (Ward,Isaiah) PENALTY WASH Offside (Ward,Isaiah) 5 yards from RU27 to RU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 7 yds to the RUTG 43Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+3
98.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 3 yds to the RUTG 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
98.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 9 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
98.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 6 yds to the WASH 36Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+32
98.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 32 yds to the WASH 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass intercepted, touchback. Ephesians Prysock return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:17
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 48 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-14
TD · Q3 2:53
Demond Williams Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q3 10:06
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 38 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+9.9