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ILL

Illinois 43 at Purdue 27

PUR
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:55 · Jack McCallister punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense−1.6Pregame prior−15.5Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:50: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 62 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +7.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:52: Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +8.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:25: Ca'Lil Valentine run for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +10.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:01: Antonio Harris run for 41 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK) — PUR win probability +11.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:34: Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PUR win probability +12.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:21PUR 4th & 10 at ILL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:56ILL 4th & 17 at PUR 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:55PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:55PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:03PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:44ILL 4th & 14 at PUR 27, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:12ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 35, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:16ILL 4th & 16 at PUR 16, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−8.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:15PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 12, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:45PUR 4th & 6 at ILL 35, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:04ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:55PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:58ILL 4th & 1 at PUR 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−2.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−6.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:18PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:37PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:06ILL 4th & 7 at PUR 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:27PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:50ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:52ILL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:25ILL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:13PUR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:01PUR Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:19ILL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:34PUR Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:2128% → 28%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.6%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 6 yds to the PUR 31Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
27.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the PUR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
28.0%
Devin Mockobee run for 18 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
28.2%
Ryan Browne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
28.2%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
28.2%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Arhmad BranchSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
28.2%
Jack McCallister punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4172% → 71%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
28.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 16Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-2
28.5%
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 14Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+7
29.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 7 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
29.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the PUR 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:4629% → 34%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
29.4%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Rico Walker for 9 yds to the PUR 47Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
29.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 4 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
30.0%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
30.0%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan pass complete short middle to Branch,Arhmad caught at ILL45, for 39 yards to the ILL10 (Heckel,Tanner), out of bounds PENALTY PUR Illegal Formation 5 yards from ILL49 to PUR46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+2
30.0%
Ryan Browne run for 2 yds to the PUR 48Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+16
30.1%
Ryan Browne run for 16 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
31.0%
Ryan Browne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
31.1%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 10 yds to the ILL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
31.5%
Antonio Harris run for 25 yds to the ILL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
31.6%
Antonio Harris run for no gain to the ILL 1Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.2%
Ryan Browne 1 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 7:1566% → 64%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
33.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 15 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
33.5%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 44Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
33.6%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+7
34.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 7 yds to the PUR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
34.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 9 yds to the PUR 38Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-1
34.5%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 39Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+4
35.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 4 yds to the PUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
35.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 12 yds to the PUR 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
35.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 3 yds to the PUR 20Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+9
35.4%
Purdue Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the PUR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
35.8%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for no gain to the PUR 8Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
36.2%
(00:49) Shotgun Altmyer,Luke rush right for 0 yards to the PUR08 (Correa,Charles; Ishmail,Breeon) PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (Gesky,Josh) 15 yards from PUR08 to PUR23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 23
0
37.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Justin BowickSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
+6
38.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 6 yds to the PUR 17Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
36.5%
David Olano 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:2637% → 39%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
36.6%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 16 yds to the PUR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
38.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 13 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
38.8%
Ryan Browne run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 47Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+9
38.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 9 yds to the ILL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
31.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 62 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:4633% → 33%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 8 yds to the PUR 33Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
34.1%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the PUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
33.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the PUR 37Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
33.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 7 yds to the PUR 44Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
34.8%
Malachi Singleton run for 2 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
35.5%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Arhmad BranchSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
34.6%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 5 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-4
35.2%
Ryan Browne sacked by Angelo McCullom for a loss of 4 yards to the PUR 47Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
33.3%
Jack McCallister punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
33.3%
Jack McCallister punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 4:4766% → 77%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+49
34.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 49 yds to the PUR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
31.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 2 yards to the PUR 47Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+5
31.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 5 yds to the PUR 42Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
31.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the PUR 39Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+5
33.4%
PENALTY PUR Offside (Ra-El,Tahj) 5 yards from PUR39 to PUR34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
31.2%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the PUR 34Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+28
31.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 28 yds to the PUR 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.1%
Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the PUR 6Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
23.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4627% → 27%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.0%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
26.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 8 yds to the PUR 43Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
27.6%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
26.9%
Jack McCallister punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:2875% → 85%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+55
25.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 40 yds to the PUR 40 for a 1ST down Purdue Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (An'Darius Coffey) to the PUR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
14.9%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0220% → 25%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the PUR 31Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
18.7%
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds to the PUR 34Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
18.7%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 6 yds to the PUR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
19.1%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse WatsonSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+60
25.2%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Corey Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:0475% → 85%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.6%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for no gain to the ILL 25Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
24.5%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 16 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
22.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Alexander Capka-Jones for 19 yds to the PUR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
21.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 16 yds to the PUR 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+42
14.6%
David Olano 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0980% → 86%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
20.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 38Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+39
19.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 39 yds to the PUR 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
18.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the PUR 18Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-3
17.9%
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 3 yards to the PUR 21Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 8
OPP 21
-6
18.2%
Luke Altmyer sacked by CJ Nunnally IV for a loss of 6 yards to the PUR 27Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+45
13.9%
David Olano 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:2217% → 29%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
16.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Corey Smith for 13 yds to the PUR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
16.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the PUR 37Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
17.2%
Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the PUR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
17.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 13 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
18.1%
Antonio Harris run for 3 yds to the ILL 41Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+41
29.1%
Antonio Harris run for 41 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4476% → 75%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Ca'Lil ValentineSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
24.8%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+1
24.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 1 yd to the ILL 35Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+56
25.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for no gain to the PUR 9 Michael Jackson III fumbled, recovered by ILL Kenenna OdelugaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FG
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:4478% → 83%
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
22.4%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 1 yd to the PUR 8Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
22.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the PUR 5Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-11
20.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the PUR 16Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
16.6%
David Olano 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4121% → 19%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
20.7%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Tony Grimes for 2 yds to the PUR 12Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
20.5%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
19.8%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse WatsonSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
19.3%
Jack McCallister punt for 56 yds , Hank Beatty returns for no gain to the ILL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:5384% → 93%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
15.8%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short left to Beatty,Hank thrown to ILL42 PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (Bradford,Smiley) 8 yards from ILL32 to ILL40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
14.6%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 37Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+14
14.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 14 yds to the PUR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
12.9%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 11
50
+49
12.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 49 yds to the PUR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:368% → 21%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
8.3%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 11 yds to the PUR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
8.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the PUR 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
7.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Corey Smith for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
50
0
8.1%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse WatsonSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
50
0
8.0%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse WatsonSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 10
50
+11
7.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 11 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
8.4%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
9.4%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
8.6%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+7
8.2%
Ryan Browne run for 7 yds to the ILL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
9.4%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+27
9.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 27 yds to the ILL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.2%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:0595% → 97%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
4.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 8 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
4.1%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 8 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
3.5%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 45Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
3.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Justin BowickSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+1
3.2%
Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
3.4%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the PUR 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0113% → 10%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
13.2%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the PUR 13Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-1
12.6%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 12Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 7
OWN 12
0
10.3%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
10.3%
Jack McCallister punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PUR 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:4697% → 98%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
2.7%
Collin Dixon run for 3 yds to the PUR 43Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+12
2.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 12 yds to the PUR 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
2.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 8 yds to the PUR 23Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+6
2.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 6 yds to the PUR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
1.9%
PENALTY ILL False Start 5 yards from PUR17 to PUR22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+11
2.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 11 yds to the PUR 11Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
1.7%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for no gain to the PUR 11Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+3
1.8%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 3 yds to the PUR 8Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
2.2%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the PUR 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:016% → 4%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
6.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 8 yds to the PUR 16Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 2
OWN 16
0
5.7%
Ryan Browne run for no gain to the PUR 16Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-1
4.5%
Ryan Browne sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 15Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 3
OWN 15
+5
4.3%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the PUR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.4%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Christian EarlsSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
4.1%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Antonio Harris for 5 yds to the PUR 25Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
3.9%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Antonio HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
3.8%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24FG
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
1.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 1 yd to the PUR 24Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
1.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the PUR 20Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+3
1.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 3 yds to the PUR 17Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 2
OPP 17
-5
1.1%
PENALTY ILL Delay Of Game 5 yards from PUR17 to PUR22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
1.2%
David Olano 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 6 yds to the PUR 31Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
1.2%
Ryan Browne run for 2 yds to the PUR 33Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
1.1%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 4 yds to the PUR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
1.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 4 yds to the PUR 41Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
1.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 6 yds to the PUR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
1.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 15 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
1.1%
PENALTY PUR False Start (Coly,Bakyne) 5 yards from ILL38 to ILL43. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:34
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+12.2
TD · Q3 9:01
Antonio Harris run for 41 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 2:25
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com