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MSU

Michigan State 27 at Nebraska 38

NEB
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.6NEB 84.2%Carter Nelson 3 Yd Return of BlockedPunt (Kyle Cunanan Kick)AWAY 0 - HOME 14 · Q1 7:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:37 · Carter Nelson 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kyle Cunanan Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+29.4Home team on offense+2.6Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:08: Aidan Chiles run for 16 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK) — MSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:37: Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK) — MSU win probability +20.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:11: Emmett Johnson run for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — NEB win probability +19.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:32: Kyle Cunanan 27 yd FG GOOD — NEB win probability +7.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:45: Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 59 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — NEB win probability +20.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:23MSU 4th & 21 at MSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:37MSU 4th & 1 at NEB 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:04NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:28MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:54NEB 4th & 4 at MSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05NEB 4th & 8 at MSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:08NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.1%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:08MSU 4th & 6 at NEB 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−1.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:08MSU 4th & 4 at NEB 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:45MSU 4th & 1 at NEB 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−3.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−16.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:32NEB 4th & 9 at MSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−14.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:14MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:37NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:54MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−2.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:17MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 27, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:09NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:37NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:52MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:08MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:37MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:11NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:45NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:27NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:01MSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:3717% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.9%
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
82.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Elijah Tau-TolliverSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
82.9%
Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-5
82.9%
PENALTY MSU False Start (West,Aydan) 5 yards from MSU19 to MSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+14
82.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 14 yds to the MSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:1483% → 83%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
82.6%
Emmett Johnson run for 1 yd to the MSU 47Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+6
82.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 6 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+5
82.6%
Dylan Raiola run for 5 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.6%
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Dane KeySimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
82.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 2 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+10
82.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Raiola,Dylan pass complete short right to Lindenmeyer,Luke caught at MSU29, for 10 yards to the MSU24 (Matthews,Wayne) PENALTY MSU Holding (West,Aydan) 10 yards from MSU34 to MSU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
82.6%
Emmett Johnson run for 14 yds to the MSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
82.6%
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Jacory Barney Jr.Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
82.6%
Dylan Raiola run for 8 yds to the MSU 2Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.9%
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT TD
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3218% → 16%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.5%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
82.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
82.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
82.6%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU33 to MSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
84.2%
Carter Nelson 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kyle Cunanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 9:4516% → 20%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 12 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
84.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Evan Boyd for 14 yds to the NEB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
83.8%
Brandon Tullis run for 5 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+10
83.7%
Makhi Frazier run for 10 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
83.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the NEB 30Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-1
83.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 31Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+6
83.8%
Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the NEB 25Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
83.8%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the NEB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
83.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the NEB 20Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+11
83.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds to the NEB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
83.5%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 10Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
83.8%
Aidan Chiles run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
84.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short middle to Kelly,Omari thrown to NEB04 PENALTY NEB Offside declined NEB Pass Interference (Singleton,DeShon) 5 yards from NEB11 to NEB06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
83.8%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Elijah Jeudy for a loss of 10 yards to the NEB 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+10
84.3%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 10 yds to the NEB 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
84.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Milivojevic,Alessio pass incomplete short right to McCray,Chrishon thrown to NEB00 PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Wright,Ceyair) 4 yards from NEB06 to NEB02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.8%
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the NEB 2Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.6%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Jack Velling for 2 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4882% → 81%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
81.8%
Mekhi Nelson run for 11 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
82.1%
Dylan Raiola run for 2 yds to the NEB 38Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
82.2%
Isaiah Mozee run for 3 yds to the NEB 41Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
82.0%
Dylan Raiola run for 3 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
81.4%
Archie Wilson punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3619% → 18%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
80.9%
No Huddle Frazier,Makhi rush left for 5 yards loss to the MSU25 (Wright,Ceyair; Jones,Donovan) PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (Lepo,Ashton) 15 yards from MSU30 to MSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+14
81.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 14 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
81.2%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
81.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 11
OWN 29
+57
82.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 54 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 57 yds to the MSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -32 yds · 2:2483% → 81%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-7
82.8%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Malik Spencer for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 33Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 17
OPP 33
-5
82.2%
Dylan Raiola sacked by David Santiago for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 38Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 22
OPP 38
-5
81.6%
PENALTY NEB False Start (Gottula,Gunnar) 5 yards from MSU38 to MSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 27
OPP 43
-15
81.5%
run for a loss of 15 yards to the NEB 42Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 42
OWN 42
0
80.7%
Archie Wilson punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4620% → 19%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
80.5%
Brandon Tullis run for 1 yd to the MSU 41Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
80.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
81.0%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted DeShon Singleton return for no gain to the MSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:2483% → 82%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
83.2%
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
83.2%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 5 yds to the MSU 36Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
82.7%
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the MSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
83.3%
Isaiah Mozee run for 1 yd to the MSU 33Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
83.2%
Isaiah Mozee run for 5 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
82.8%
Emmett Johnson run for no gain to the MSU 28Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 4
OPP 28
-10
81.6%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Jalen Thompson for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4120% → 20%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
80.1%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
79.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Makhi FrazierSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-7
80.3%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted DeShon Singleton return for 7 yds to the MSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0883% → 80%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
83.0%
Emmett Johnson run for 6 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-15
83.0%
Nebraska Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 16
50
+8
81.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 8 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
80.2%
Archie Wilson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
80.5%
Kneel down by Michigan St. at MSU10 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5282% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
81.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 14 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
82.4%
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds to the NEB 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
82.9%
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
82.3%
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Emmett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+2
81.2%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 2 yds to the NEB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 7:0022% → 36%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.4%
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the NEB 48Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
78.9%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 12
50
+6
80.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 6 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 6
OPP 44
+10
80.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 10 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
77.3%
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 36Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+7
79.1%
Aidan Chiles run for 7 yds to the NEB 29Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+7
78.2%
Aidan Chiles run for 7 yds to the NEB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
76.9%
Brandon Tullis run for 5 yds to the NEB 17Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-1
76.9%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 18Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+2
78.2%
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the NEB 16Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+16
63.8%
Aidan Chiles run for 16 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.5%
Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Jordan Hall return for no gain to the NEB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2438% → 66%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
61.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 13 yds to the NEB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
60.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
60.4%
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 5 yards to the NEB 30Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+14
64.3%
Makhi Frazier run for 14 yds to the NEB 16Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
60.1%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the NEB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
56.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 9 yds to the NEB 4Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
34.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2644% → 71%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.9%
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Jacory Barney Jr.Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.6%
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Dane KeySimilar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+45
42.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 45 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
51.2%
Emmett Johnson run for 7 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+23
70.9%
Emmett Johnson run for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3671% → 77%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
70.8%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Darius Snow for a loss of 6 yards to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 34
+12
68.2%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 12 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+15
68.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 5 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Jalen Thompson) to the MSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
70.4%
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Nyziah HunterSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
70.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 2 yds to the MSU 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
68.9%
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Emmett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
76.5%
Kyle Cunanan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0728% → 27%
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.3%
Makhi Frazier run for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
71.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+12
73.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEB 20 , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 12 yds to the NEB 43 Nebraska Penalty, Illegal Block (Carter Nelson) to the NEB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:3775% → 75%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
75.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 8 yds to the NEB 28Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
76.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 6 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
75.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Cortez Mills Jr. for 10 yds to the NEB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
78.4%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Alex VanSumeren for a loss of 7 yards to the NEB 37Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+9
75.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 9 yds to the NEB 46Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-5
76.1%
PENALTY NEB False Start (Pritchett,Elijah) 5 yards from NEB46 to NEB41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+4
74.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 4 yds to the NEB 45Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
74.5%
Archie Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Omari Kelly at the MSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4329% → 27%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
71.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-5
70.9%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 6Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 13
OWN 6
0
73.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 13
OWN 6
0
73.4%
Ryan Eckley punt for 51 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for no gain to the NEB 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
93.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 59 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:288% → 8%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
91.6%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Williams Nwaneri for a loss of 12 yards to the MSU 13Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+14
91.7%
Aidan Chiles run for 14 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
92.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-10
92.3%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Cameron Lenhardt for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:5097% → 99%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
97.0%
Emmett Johnson run for 6 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
99.4%
Emmett Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:262% → 7%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 15 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.2%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Makhi Frazier for no gain to the MSU 40Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
98.2%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Jack Velling for 16 yds to the NEB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
98.1%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Jack Velling for 19 yds to the NEB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
97.7%
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Brandon Tullis for 24 yds to the NEB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.5%
Alessio Milivojevic run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
98.8%
D. Raiola takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-2
98.8%
D. Raiola takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 47
-2
98.9%
D. Raiola takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:37
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
-20.5
TD · Q4 6:45
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 59 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+20.2
TD · Q3 1:11
Emmett Johnson run for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+19.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com