MSU
Michigan State 27 at Nebraska 38
NEB2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Speed4x
Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
MSU · Drive 1PUNT · 6 plays · -11 yds
Q1 15:00
Kyle Cunanan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
78.5%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the MSU 29
76.8%
-1.7
Q1 15:00
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver
76.9%
+0.1
Q1 15:00
Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 19
76.9%
0.0
Q1 15:00
PENALTY MSU False Start (West,Aydan) 5 yards from MSU19 to MSU14. NO PLAY.
76.8%
-0.1
Q1 13:23
Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 14 yds to the MSU 48
75.9%
-0.9
NEB · Drive 2TD · 10 plays · 48 yds
Q1 13:23
Emmett Johnson run for 1 yd to the MSU 47
79.7%
+3.8
Q1 13:23
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 6 yds to the MSU 41
79.7%
0.0
Q1 13:23
Dylan Raiola run for 5 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST down
79.8%
+0.1
Q1 13:23
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Dane Key
79.9%
+0.2
Q1 13:23
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 2 yds to the MSU 34
79.9%
0.0
Q1 13:23
No Huddle-Shotgun Raiola,Dylan pass complete short right to Lindenmeyer,Luke caught at MSU29, for 10 yards to the MSU24 (Matthews,Wayne) PENALTY MSU Holding (West,Aydan) 10 yards from MSU34 to MSU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
79.8%
-0.2
Q1 13:23
Emmett Johnson run for 14 yds to the MSU 10 for a 1ST down
79.9%
+0.2
Q1 13:23
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Jacory Barney Jr.
79.9%
0.0
Q1 13:23
Dylan Raiola run for 8 yds to the MSU 2
79.9%
0.0
Q1 9:09
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
87.5%
+7.5
MSU · Drive 3PUNT TD · 6 plays · 3 yds
Q1 9:09
Kyle Cunanan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
87.3%
-0.2
Q1 9:09
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the MSU 26
85.0%
-2.2
Q1 9:09
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
85.0%
0.0
Q1 9:09
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds to the MSU 33
85.0%
0.0
Q1 9:09
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU33 to MSU28. NO PLAY.
85.0%
0.0
Q1 7:37
Carter Nelson 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kyle Cunanan Kick)
92.8%
+7.8
MSU · Drive 4TD · 20 plays · 75 yds
Q1 7:37
John Hohl kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
93.5%
+0.8
Q1 7:37
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 12 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down
92.8%
-0.8
Q1 7:37
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Evan Boyd for 14 yds to the NEB 49 for a 1ST down
92.8%
0.0
Q1 7:37
Brandon Tullis run for 5 yds to the NEB 44
92.6%
-0.1
Q1 7:37
Makhi Frazier run for 10 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST down
92.5%
-0.1
Q1 7:37
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the NEB 30
92.2%
-0.4
Q1 7:37
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 31
92.2%
0.0
Q1 7:37
Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the NEB 25
92.2%
0.0
Q1 7:37
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the NEB 23 for a 1ST down
92.4%
+0.3
Q1 7:37
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack Velling
92.2%
-0.3
Q1 7:37
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the NEB 20
92.2%
0.0
Q1 7:37
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds to the NEB 9 for a 1ST down
92.2%
0.0
Q1 7:37
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 10
92.2%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Aidan Chiles run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 11
91.9%
-0.3
Q2 15:00
No Huddle-Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short middle to Kelly,Omari thrown to NEB04 PENALTY NEB Offside declined NEB Pass Interference (Singleton,DeShon) 5 yards from NEB11 to NEB06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
91.9%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Aidan Chiles sacked by Elijah Jeudy for a loss of 10 yards to the NEB 16
91.9%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Nick Marsh for 10 yds to the NEB 6
91.9%
0.0
Q2 15:00
No Huddle-Shotgun Milivojevic,Alessio pass incomplete short right to McCray,Chrishon thrown to NEB00 PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Wright,Ceyair) 4 yards from NEB06 to NEB02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
91.9%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the NEB 2
91.9%
0.0
Q2 12:52
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Jack Velling for 2 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
82.8%
-9.1
NEB · Drive 5PUNT · 6 plays · 19 yds
Q2 12:52
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
84.2%
+1.5
Q2 12:52
Mekhi Nelson run for 11 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST down
86.3%
+2.1
Q2 12:52
Dylan Raiola run for 2 yds to the NEB 38
86.6%
+0.2
Q2 12:52
Isaiah Mozee run for 3 yds to the NEB 41
86.6%
+0.1
Q2 12:52
Dylan Raiola run for 3 yds to the NEB 44
86.5%
-0.1
Q2 10:04
Archie Wilson punt for 26 yds
86.4%
-0.1
MSU · Drive 6PUNT · 5 plays · -1 yds
Q2 10:04
No Huddle Frazier,Makhi rush left for 5 yards loss to the MSU25 (Wright,Ceyair; Jones,Donovan) PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (Lepo,Ashton) 15 yards from MSU30 to MSU15. NO PLAY.
84.1%
-2.3
Q2 10:04
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 14 yds to the MSU 29
84.1%
0.0
Q2 10:04
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack Velling
84.1%
0.0
Q2 10:04
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray
84.1%
0.0
Q2 8:28
Ryan Eckley punt for 54 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 57 yds to the MSU 26
84.1%
0.0
NEB · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · -32 yds
Q2 8:28
Dylan Raiola sacked by Malik Spencer for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 33
87.2%
+3.0
Q2 8:28
Dylan Raiola sacked by David Santiago for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 38
87.2%
0.0
Q2 8:28
PENALTY NEB False Start (Gottula,Gunnar) 5 yards from MSU38 to MSU43. NO PLAY.
87.0%
-0.1
Q2 8:28
run for a loss of 15 yards to the NEB 42
87.0%
0.0
Q2 6:04
Archie Wilson punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSU 40
86.8%
-0.2
MSU · Drive 8INT · 3 plays · 1 yds
Q2 6:04
Brandon Tullis run for 1 yd to the MSU 41
84.1%
-2.7
Q2 6:04
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
83.9%
-0.2
Q2 5:18
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted DeShon Singleton return for no gain to the MSU 45
83.9%
0.0
NEB · Drive 9DOWNS · 7 plays · 7 yds
Q2 5:18
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds to the MSU 41
87.4%
+3.5
Q2 5:18
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 5 yds to the MSU 36
87.5%
+0.1
Q2 5:18
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the MSU 34 for a 1ST down
87.4%
-0.1
Q2 5:18
Isaiah Mozee run for 1 yd to the MSU 33
87.5%
+0.1
Q2 5:18
Isaiah Mozee run for 5 yds to the MSU 28
87.5%
0.0
Q2 5:18
Emmett Johnson run for no gain to the MSU 28
87.4%
-0.1
Q2 1:54
Dylan Raiola sacked by Jalen Thompson for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 38
87.0%
-0.4
MSU · Drive 10INT · 3 plays · 3 yds
Q2 1:54
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 41
83.9%
-3.1
Q2 1:54
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Makhi Frazier
83.7%
-0.2
Q2 1:13
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted DeShon Singleton return for 7 yds to the MSU 44
83.7%
0.0
NEB · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · 2 yds
Q2 1:13
Emmett Johnson run for 6 yds to the MSU 38
87.2%
+3.4
Q2 1:13
Nebraska Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
87.3%
+0.1
Q2 0:33
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 8 yds to the MSU 42
86.9%
-0.3
Q2 0:33
Timeout Nebraska, clock 00:33
86.4%
-0.5
Q2 0:12
Timeout Nebraska, clock 00:12
85.3%
-1.1
Q2 0:05
Archie Wilson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSU 12
85.3%
0.0
MSU · Drive 12END OF HALF · 1 play · -2 yds
Q2 0:00
Kneel down by Michigan St. at MSU10 for loss of 2 yards.
82.7%
-2.7
NEB · Drive 13DOWNS · 6 plays · 23 yds
Q3 15:00
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
82.8%
+0.1
Q3 15:00
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 14 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST down
86.3%
+3.5
Q3 15:00
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds to the NEB 43
86.6%
+0.3
Q3 15:00
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 46
86.6%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Emmett Johnson
86.4%
-0.1
Q3 13:08
Heinrich Haarberg run for 2 yds to the NEB 48
86.4%
-0.1
MSU · Drive 14TD · 11 plays · 48 yds
Q3 13:08
Makhi Frazier run for no gain to the NEB 48
81.4%
-4.9
Q3 13:08
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line
81.4%
0.0
Q3 13:08
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 6 yds to the NEB 44
81.4%
0.0
Q3 13:08
Aidan Chiles run for 10 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST down
81.4%
0.0
Q3 13:08
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 36
80.9%
-0.6
Q3 13:08
Aidan Chiles run for 7 yds to the NEB 29
80.9%
0.0
Q3 13:08
Aidan Chiles run for 7 yds to the NEB 22 for a 1ST down
80.9%
0.0
Q3 13:08
Brandon Tullis run for 5 yds to the NEB 17
80.9%
0.0
Q3 13:08
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 18
80.9%
0.0
Q3 13:08
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the NEB 16
80.9%
0.0
Q3 6:08
Aidan Chiles run for 16 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
66.2%
-14.7
NEB · Drive 15INT · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q3 6:08
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
67.8%
+1.7
Q3 6:01
Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Jordan Hall return for no gain to the NEB 38
73.6%
+5.7
MSU · Drive 16TD · 9 plays · 38 yds
Q3 6:01
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 13 yds to the NEB 25 for a 1ST down
65.5%
-8.1
Q3 6:01
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
65.5%
0.0
Q3 6:01
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 5 yards to the NEB 30
65.5%
0.0
Q3 6:01
Makhi Frazier run for 14 yds to the NEB 16
65.5%
0.0
Q3 3:45
Timeout Nebraska, clock 03:45
61.3%
-4.1
Q3 3:45
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the NEB 13 for a 1ST down
61.3%
0.0
Q3 3:45
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 9 yds to the NEB 4
60.6%
-0.7
Q3 2:39
Timeout Nebraska, clock 02:39
60.6%
0.0
Q3 2:37
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
39.1%
-21.5
NEB · Drive 17TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q3 2:37
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
40.9%
+1.8
Q3 2:37
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Jacory Barney Jr.
47.6%
+6.7
Q3 2:37
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Dane Key
47.6%
0.0
Q3 2:37
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 45 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST down
47.6%
0.0
Q3 2:37
Emmett Johnson run for 7 yds to the MSU 23
50.9%
+3.3
Q3 1:11
Emmett Johnson run for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
72.5%
+21.6
NEB · Drive 18FG · 8 plays · 19 yds
Q3 1:08
John Hohl kickoff for 39 yds , Sam Edwards return for 2 yds to the MSU 28 Sam Edwards fumbled, recovered by NEB Mekhi Nelson
70.5%
-2.0
Q3 1:08
Dylan Raiola sacked by Darius Snow for a loss of 6 yards to the MSU 34
72.5%
+2.0
Q3 0:00
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 12 yds to the MSU 22
72.5%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 5 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Jalen Thompson) to the MSU 7 for a 1ST down
72.3%
-0.2
Q4 15:00
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Nyziah Hunter
72.5%
+0.2
Q4 15:00
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 2 yds to the MSU 9
72.5%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Emmett Johnson
72.3%
-0.2
Q4 13:32
Kyle Cunanan 27 yd FG GOOD
79.8%
+7.5
MSU · Drive 19PUNT · 4 plays · 6 yds
Q4 13:32
John Hohl kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
79.4%
-0.4
Q4 13:21
Makhi Frazier run for 6 yds to the MSU 31
75.9%
-3.5
Q4 13:21
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray
75.9%
0.0
Q4 12:14
Ryan Eckley punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEB 20 , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 12 yds to the NEB 43 Nebraska Penalty, Illegal Block (Carter Nelson) to the NEB 20
75.9%
0.0
NEB · Drive 20PUNT · 8 plays · 25 yds
Q4 12:14
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 8 yds to the NEB 28
79.4%
+3.5
Q4 12:14
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 6 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST down
79.4%
0.0
Q4 12:14
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Cortez Mills Jr. for 10 yds to the NEB 44 for a 1ST down
79.4%
0.0
Q4 12:14
Dylan Raiola sacked by Alex VanSumeren for a loss of 7 yards to the NEB 37
79.9%
+0.6
Q4 12:14
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 9 yds to the NEB 46
79.7%
-0.2
Q4 12:14
PENALTY NEB False Start (Pritchett,Elijah) 5 yards from NEB46 to NEB41. NO PLAY.
79.8%
+0.1
Q4 12:14
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 4 yds to the NEB 45
79.6%
-0.1
Q4 8:37
Archie Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Omari Kelly at the MSU 9
79.6%
0.0
MSU · Drive 21PUNT · 4 plays · -3 yds
Q4 8:37
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the MSU 11
77.3%
-2.4
Q4 8:37
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 6
77.3%
0.0
Q4 8:37
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray
77.3%
0.0
Q4 6:54
Ryan Eckley punt for 51 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for no gain to the NEB 41
76.7%
-0.6
NEB · Drive 22TD · 1 play · 59 yds
Q4 6:45
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 59 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
94.2%
+17.5
MSU · Drive 23DOWNS · 7 plays · -8 yds
Q4 6:45
John Hohl kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
94.1%
-0.1
Q4 6:45
Aidan Chiles sacked by Williams Nwaneri for a loss of 12 yards to the MSU 13
92.5%
-1.6
Q4 6:45
Aidan Chiles run for 14 yds to the MSU 27
92.5%
0.0
Q4 5:30
Timeout Nebraska, clock 05:30
92.5%
0.0
Q4 5:30
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray
92.5%
0.0
Q4 5:22
Timeout Nebraska, clock 05:22
92.5%
0.0
Q4 5:17
Aidan Chiles sacked by Cameron Lenhardt for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 17
92.5%
0.0
NEB · Drive 24TD · 2 plays · 17 yds
Q4 5:17
Emmett Johnson run for 6 yds to the MSU 11
93.2%
+0.7
Q4 4:27
Emmett Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
97.3%
+4.2
MSU · Drive 25TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q4 4:27
John Hohl kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
97.3%
0.0
Q4 4:27
Alessio Milivojevic pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
96.9%
-0.5
Q4 4:27
Makhi Frazier run for 15 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST down
96.9%
0.0
Q4 4:05
Timeout Nebraska, clock 04:05
96.9%
0.0
Q4 4:05
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Makhi Frazier for no gain to the MSU 40
96.9%
0.0
Q4 4:05
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Jack Velling for 16 yds to the NEB 44 for a 1ST down
96.9%
0.0
Q4 4:05
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Jack Velling for 19 yds to the NEB 25 for a 1ST down
96.9%
0.0
Q4 4:05
Alessio Milivojevic pass complete to Brandon Tullis for 24 yds to the NEB 1 for a 1ST down
96.9%
0.0
Q4 2:09
Timeout Nebraska, clock 02:09
96.8%
0.0
Q4 2:01
Alessio Milivojevic run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
92.8%
-4.0
NEB · Drive 26END OF GAME · 4 plays · -6 yds
Q4 2:00
Ryan Eckley kickoff for 14 yds
93.0%
+0.2
Q4 2:00
D. Raiola takes a knee
93.9%
+0.9
Q4 2:00
D. Raiola takes a knee
93.9%
0.0
Q4 0:00
D. Raiola takes a knee
94.0%
+0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:11
Emmett Johnson run for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+21.6
TD · Q3 2:37
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
-21.5
TD · Q4 6:45
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 59 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+17.5