Try the model
WASH

Washington 24 at Maryland 20

MD
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · SECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:51 · Bryce McFerson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense+15.4Pregame prior−4.2Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:01: Sean O'Haire 29 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +8.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:25: Malik Washington pass complete to AJ Szymanski for 2 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK) — MD win probability +14.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:23: Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 3 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +15.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:32: Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 34 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +23.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 3:21: Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +43.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 9WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:52WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:22MD 4th & 5 at WASH 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29WASH 4th & 13 at WASH 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:04WASH 4th & 6 at MD 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.1%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:58MD 4th & 3 at WASH 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.8%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:01MD 4th & 11 at WASH 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:25WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12WASH 4th & 9 at MD 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:25MD 4th & 2 at WASH 37, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:44WASH 4th & 12 at MD 18, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:24MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:51MD 4th & 9 at MD 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:38MD 4th & 8 at MD 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−2.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:43MD 4th & 8 at WASH 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−3.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−7.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:43MD 4th & 8 at WASH 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−3.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−7.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 0:20MD Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:25MD Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:23WASH Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:32WASH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:21WASH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WASHDrive 1INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3469% → 68%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
31.2%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the WASH 28Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
31.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 3 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+6
31.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 6 yds to the WASH 37Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+3
32.1%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-32
32.2%
Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Decker DeGraaf) to the WASH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-14
32.2%
Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Decker DeGraaf) to the WASH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3433% → 33%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
33.0%
DeJuan Williams run for 5 yds to the WASH 9Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
33.2%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Dorian FlemingSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
33.1%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
33.2%
Sean O'Haire 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3967% → 65%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
33.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+14
33.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 14 yds to the WASH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
33.5%
(10:14) Shotgun Williams Jr.,Demond pass complete short left to Roebuck,Dezmen caught at WAS49, for 7 yards to the WAS49, out of bounds at WAS49 PENALTY WAS Holding (McCree,Maximus) 10 yards from WAS42 to WAS32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 20
OWN 32
0
33.9%
Demond Williams Jr. run for no gain to the WASH 32Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+7
34.5%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the WASH 39Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
34.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Raiden Vines-BrightSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 13
OWN 39
+10
35.1%
Luke Dunne punt for 42 yds , Jalil Farooq returns for 10 yds to the MD 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD
17 plays · 71 yds · 8:0635% → 46%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
34.7%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Shaleak KnottsSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
34.6%
Nolan Ray run for 5 yds to the MD 34Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+6
34.9%
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 6 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
35.7%
Nolan Ray run for 8 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
36.5%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
36.3%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
50
-1
36.9%
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 49Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
36.9%
Malik Washington pass complete to Nolan Ray for 2 yds to the WASH 49Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+10
37.5%
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 10 yds to the WASH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
38.6%
DeJuan Williams run for 4 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
39.4%
DeJuan Williams run for 4 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+4
39.1%
DeJuan Williams run for 4 yds to the WASH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
40.1%
DeJuan Williams run for 3 yds to the WASH 24Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
40.6%
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 3 yds to the WASH 27Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+23
40.4%
Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 23 yds to the WASH 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
46.1%
Malik Washington run for 4 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:0356% → 52%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Quentin MooreSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
44.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 8 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
44.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
44.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Raiden Vines-Bright for 8 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
44.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 8 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
45.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Denzel BostonSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
45.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-5
45.6%
PENALTY WAS Illegal Snap (Hatchett,Landen) 5 yards from UMD30 to UMD35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+3
46.2%
Adam Mohammed run for 3 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 6
OPP 32
0
47.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Denzel BostonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6FG
18 plays · 57 yds · 7:5748% → 67%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
48.1%
Iverson Howard run for no gain to the MD 32Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
48.6%
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 7 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
50.1%
Malik Washington pass complete to DeJuan Williams for 5 yds to the MD 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
51.5%
Malik Washington pass complete to Leon Haughton Jr. for 7 yds to the WASH 49Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
52.0%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
51.1%
DeJuan Williams run for no gain to the WASH 49Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+5
51.1%
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 5 yds to the WASH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
53.9%
DeJuan Williams run for 6 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+9
53.4%
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 9 yds to the WASH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
54.1%
Jalil Farooq run for 6 yds to the WASH 13Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-2
55.2%
DeJuan Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 15Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+8
55.0%
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 8 yds to the WASH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
56.4%
DeJuan Williams run for 2 yds to the WASH 5Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
59.5%
DeJuan Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the WASH 11Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
58.4%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q2 4:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
66.5%
Sean O'Haire 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:2236% → 33%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 5 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
64.1%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 6 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
64.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the WASH 40Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
64.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Denzel BostonSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-1
65.5%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Zahir Mathis for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 39Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
67.4%
Luke Dunne punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalil Farooq at the MD 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0666% → 66%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.4%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Nolan RaySimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.4%
Malik Washington pass intercepted Makell Esteen return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5435% → 34%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
50
+10
64.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 10 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
62.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the MD 38Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-5
62.9%
PENALTY WAS False Start (Hatchett,Landen) 5 yards from UMD38 to UMD43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+2
65.3%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+2
65.9%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
66.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Dezmen RoebuckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:4269% → 70%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
69.3%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Shaleak KnottsSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
69.1%
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 16 yds to the WASH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
70.1%
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 3 yds to the WASH 42Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
70.2%
Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the WASH 37Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
69.7%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+55
70.2%
Sean O'Haire 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:1533% → 33%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 11
OWN 37
+2
67.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 2 yds to the WASH 39Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
67.5%
Maryland Penalty, Targeting (3 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
50
0
65.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Dezmen RoebuckSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
50
0
67.1%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Dezmen RoebuckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2970% → 90%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Malik Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
69.7%
Maryland Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MD 22Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+29
70.1%
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 14 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Manu) to the WASH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
73.1%
DeJuan Williams run for 4 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
73.3%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to AJ SzymanskiSimilar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+29
72.6%
Malik Washington pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 29 yds to the WASH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
74.4%
Malik Washington pass complete to DeJuan Williams for 8 yds to the WASH 8Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 2
OPP 8
-5
74.7%
PENALTY UMD False Start (Wright,Isaiah) 5 yards from WAS08 to WAS13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+11
75.5%
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 11 yds to the WASH 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.5%
Malik Washington pass complete to AJ Szymanski for 2 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13FG
18 plays · 55 yds · 7:2213% → 12%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
87.5%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the WASH 32Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
87.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
89.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the WASH 43Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
89.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the WASH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
90.2%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the WASH 39Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+10
91.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 10 yds to the WASH 49Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+13
91.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Raiden Vines-Bright for 13 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
91.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the MD 37Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+8
92.1%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Raiden Vines-Bright for 8 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
91.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the MD 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
91.5%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the MD 19Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+3
91.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the MD 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
92.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 17Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-5
92.8%
(04:41) PENALTY WAS False Start (Azzopardi,Drew) 5 yards from UMD17 to UMD22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+4
93.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the MD 18Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
93.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Denzel BostonSimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+36
88.2%
Grady Gross 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1590% → 90%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.7%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
90.1%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
89.8%
Malik Washington run for 2 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
89.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:5010% → 25%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
89.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 8 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
89.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Adam Mohammed for 5 yds to the WASH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
89.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 9 yds to the WASH 48Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
90.1%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
50
+21
90.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 21 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
89.9%
(00:13) Shotgun Williams Jr.,Demond pass complete short right to Coleman,Jonah caught at UMD24, for 5 yards to the UMD24, out of bounds at UMD24 PENALTY UMD Holding (Joyner,Dontay) 10 yards from UMD29 to UMD19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
89.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+13
90.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 13 yds to the MD 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
90.4%
Maryland Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dontay Joyner) to the MD 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 3 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2180% → 80%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.9%
Malik Washington pass complete to Jalil Farooq for no gain to the MD 25Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.8%
Malik Washington pass complete to Iverson Howard for 1 yd to the MD 26Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
80.3%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to DeJuan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
80.4%
Bryce McFerson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0819% → 45%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 10 yds to the WASH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
80.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 11 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
79.0%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 20 yds to the MD 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
55.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 34 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4566% → 67%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.6%
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 5 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
67.8%
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for no gain to the MD 30Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
66.7%
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 8 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.9%
Malik Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
69.4%
DeJuan Williams run for 2 yds to the MD 40Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
68.4%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+15
66.7%
Bryce McFerson punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WASH 20 , Denzel Boston returns for 15 yds to the WASH 45 Washington Penalty, Running Into The Kicker (Leroy Bryant) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:1136% → 86%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for no gain to the WASH 20Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
64.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+17
66.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 17 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
62.8%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
59.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
59.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 26 yds to the MD 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
56.8%
Adam Mohammed run for 2 yds to the MD 21Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
57.1%
Adam Mohammed run for 2 yds to the MD 19Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+7
59.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 7 yds to the MD 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
57.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 11 yds to the MD 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:2630% → 27%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.0%
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 3 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
30.2%
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 13 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
32.1%
Malik Washington pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 14 yds to the WASH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
34.8%
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 2 yds to the WASH 43Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
33.9%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to DeJuan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
31.5%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
26.9%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
26.9%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:3991% → 97%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
9.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 46Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
8.2%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the MD 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
7.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
7.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the MD 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-3
3.3%
D. Williams Jr. takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:21
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-43.3
TD · Q4 11:32
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 34 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-23.6
TD · Q4 14:23
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 3 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com