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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreWIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:10 · Atticus Bertrams punt blocked by Troy Bowles blocked by Troy Bowles
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:10: Dilin Jones run for 5 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +1.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 4:45: Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 5 yds to the WIS 29 — MICH win probability +2.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:11: Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 29 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +9.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:24: Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +6.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 2:43: Nathanial Vakos 39 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +1.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 7WIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 3:05WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.7%average punt
- Q1 0:54MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 23, tiedClose callPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it82.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:09WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snapGo for it18.2%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.4%average punt
- Q2 12:43MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 28, tiedClose callPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it81.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:10WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 34, tiedClose callPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it20.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:43MICH 4th & 9 at WIS 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snapGo for it78.3%−0.530% to convertField goalTheir call78.8%72% to makePunt75.5%−3.3average punt
- Q2 3:27WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it20.3%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q2 1:59MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 31, up 3Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snapGo for it78.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:24WIS 4th & 3 at MICH 49, down 3Close callPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it22.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:26MICH 4th & 9 at WIS 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snapGo for it76.7%−1.025% to convertField goalTheir call77.7%89% to makePunt71.2%−6.5average punt
- Q3 8:21WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it21.1%−2.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.2%average punt
- Q3 6:50MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 44, up 3Close callPunted · 76.7% before the snapGo for it77.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:14WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 15, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snapGo for it22.1%−1.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.2%average punt
- Q4 13:08MICH 4th & 2 at WIS 28, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.7%57% to convertField goal87.8%−0.960% to makePunt84.2%−4.5average punt
- Q4 12:11WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it11.0%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q4 6:42WIS 4th & 4 at MICH 33, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%48% to convertField goal2.6%−0.449% to makePunt2.2%−0.8average punt
- Q4 2:43WIS 4th & 20 at MICH 22, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.59% to convertField goalTheir call2.2%72% to makePunt1.4%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:10WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.9%97% to makeGo for two15.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:02MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.4%97% to makeGo for two84.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:11MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:24MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:4211% → 15%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
88.3%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Chris Brooks Jr. for 12 yds to the WIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
87.6%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 7 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
87.1%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 17 yds to the MICH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0086% → 87%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.5%
(08:10) No Huddle Underwood,Bryce pass incomplete deep right to McCulley,Donaven thrown to WIS37 PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Hallman,Ricardo) 15 yards from UOM25 to UOM40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
85.5%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 6 yds to the WIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5114% → 15%
Q1 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
85.7%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 4 yds to the WIS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1185% → 84%
WISDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4016% → 17%
MICHDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0984% → 83%
WISDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 3:2618% → 19%
Q2 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+11
82.2%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 11 yds to the WIS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+6
81.4%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Dilin Jones for 6 yds to the WIS 34Similar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+32
81.0%
Atticus Bertrams punt blocked by Troy Bowles blocked by Troy BowlesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG8 plays · 44 yds · 3:0882% → 82%
WISDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0618% → 18%
MICHDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1882% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2920% → 21%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
80.2%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 16 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2079% → 79%
MICHDrive 13MISSED FG13 plays · 66 yds · 5:2680% → 79%
Q3 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
81.1%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Andrew Marsh for 13 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
81.6%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 1 yd to the MICH 45Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+26
81.3%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Andrew Marsh for 26 yds to the WIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
82.1%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Haynes,Justice rush left for 5 yards gain to the WIS24 (Hallman,Ricardo) PENALTY UOM Holding (Bredeson,Max) 10 yards from WIS29 to WIS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+11
80.7%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Zack Marshall for 11 yds to the WIS 28Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+19
80.7%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 19 yds Semaj Morgan fumbled, recovered by MICH Semaj Morgan for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5723% → 21%
Q3 8:21
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
79.2%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2179% → 78%
WISDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3023% → 22%
MICHDrive 17TD4 plays · 67 yds · 0:5777% → 90%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+33
77.3%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 33 yds to the WIS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
80.2%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 5 yds to the WIS 29Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+29
89.5%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 29 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18INT3 plays · 31 yds · 1:2412% → 14%
MICHDrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 52 yds · 4:1388% → 89%
Q3 1:43
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
88.5%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 6 yds to the MICH 24Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+13
89.5%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 13 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+6
90.3%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 6 yds to the WIS 28Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-3
89.1%
Bryce Underwood run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 31 Bryce Underwood fumbled, recovered by MICH Bryce UnderwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5212% → 11%
Q4 12:11
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+13
89.2%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 38 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 13 yds to the MICH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD7 plays · 61 yds · 2:4090% → 97%
WISDrive 22FG16 plays · 53 yds · 6:353% → 4%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.0%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 16 yds to the WIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
96.8%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 20 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
96.8%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 6 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
96.3%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for no gain to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+7
97.0%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Grant Stec for 7 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+5
97.6%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Jackson Acker for 5 yds to the MICH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
97.1%
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 7 yds to the MICH 5Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-5
97.3%
(03:53) PENALTY WIS False Start (Kodanko,Kerry) 5 yards from UOM05 to UOM10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-12
97.4%
Hunter Simmons sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 12 yards to the MICH 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23END OF GAME8 plays · 40 yds · 2:3698% → 99%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.2%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 6 yds to the WIS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:11
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 29 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q4 9:24
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+6.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:45
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 5 yds to the WIS 29
+2.9