WIS
Wisconsin 10 at Michigan 24
MICH2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey play
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WIS · Drive 1TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
87.3%
0.0
Q1 14:52
Dilin Jones run for 5 yds to the WIS 30
85.8%
-1.5
Q1 14:09
Dilin Jones run for 4 yds to the WIS 34
85.2%
-0.5
Q1 13:41
Dilin Jones run for 2 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST down
85.2%
0.0
Q1 12:58
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Chris Brooks Jr. for 12 yds to the WIS 48 for a 1ST down
85.1%
-0.1
Q1 12:35
Dilin Jones run for 5 yds to the MICH 47
84.1%
-1.1
Q1 11:54
Dilin Jones run for 9 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST down
83.9%
-0.1
Q1 11:09
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 7 yds to the MICH 31
82.9%
-1.0
Q1 10:40
Trech Kekahuna run for 5 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST down
82.9%
0.0
Q1 10:04
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 17 yds to the MICH 9 for a 1ST down
82.9%
0.0
Q1 9:29
Dilin Jones run for 2 yds to the MICH 7
83.0%
+0.1
Q1 8:50
Dilin Jones run for 2 yds to the MICH 5
82.6%
-0.4
Q1 8:10
Dilin Jones run for 5 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
74.2%
-8.4
MICH · Drive 2TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q1 8:10
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
75.6%
+1.4
Q1 8:02
(08:10) No Huddle Underwood,Bryce pass incomplete deep right to McCulley,Donaven thrown to WIS37 PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Hallman,Ricardo) 15 yards from UOM25 to UOM40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
73.9%
-1.7
Q1 7:54
Justice Haynes run for 6 yds to the MICH 46
74.4%
+0.5
Q1 7:22
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 6 yds to the WIS 48 for a 1ST down
74.4%
0.0
Q1 6:52
Justice Haynes run for 43 yds to the WIS 5 for a 1ST down
75.4%
+1.0
Q1 6:34
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the WIS 1
76.1%
+0.8
Q1 6:02
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
85.6%
+9.5
WIS · Drive 3PUNT · 8 plays · 22 yds
Q1 6:02
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
84.5%
-1.1
Q1 5:56
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the WIS 26
82.3%
-2.3
Q1 5:12
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 4 yds to the WIS 30
82.2%
-0.1
Q1 4:37
Dilin Jones run for 16 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST down
82.2%
0.0
Q1 4:01
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Jayden Ballard
80.8%
-1.4
Q1 3:55
Darrion Dupree run for 1 yd to the WIS 47
80.7%
-0.1
Q1 3:14
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Lance Mason
80.7%
0.0
Q1 3:05
Atticus Bertrams punt for 51 yds
80.9%
+0.2
MICH · Drive 4PUNT · 6 plays · 21 yds
Q1 3:05
PENALTY WIS Offside (Lane Jr.,Brandon) 5 yards from UOM02 to UOM07. NO PLAY.
84.3%
+3.5
Q1 2:43
Bryce Underwood run for 7 yds to the MICH 14 for a 1ST down
84.3%
0.0
Q1 2:17
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Marlin Klein
84.1%
-0.3
Q1 2:02
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Andrew Marsh for 9 yds to the MICH 23
83.8%
-0.2
Q1 1:21
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the MICH 24 for a 1ST down
83.8%
0.0
Q1 0:54
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 48 yds
83.7%
-0.2
WIS · Drive 5PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q1 0:49
Darrion Dupree run for 2 yds to the WIS 31
81.2%
-2.4
Q1 0:00
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 4 yds to the WIS 35
80.9%
-0.3
Q2 14:47
Cade Yacamelli run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 34
80.9%
0.0
Q2 14:09
Atticus Bertrams punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 19
80.8%
-0.1
MICH · Drive 6PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q2 13:52
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Jordan Marshall for 8 yds to the MICH 27
82.9%
+2.1
Q2 13:25
Jordan Marshall run for 1 yd to the MICH 28
82.9%
0.0
Q2 12:48
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Max Bredeson
82.9%
0.0
Q2 12:43
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 15
82.7%
-0.2
WIS · Drive 7PUNT · 6 plays · 19 yds
Q2 12:36
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the WIS 16
80.8%
-1.9
Q2 11:53
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 11 yds to the WIS 27 for a 1ST down
80.7%
-0.1
Q2 11:27
Dilin Jones run for 3 yds to the WIS 30
80.7%
0.0
Q2 10:46
Dilin Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the WIS 28
80.7%
0.0
Q2 9:54
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Dilin Jones for 6 yds to the WIS 34
80.7%
0.0
Q2 9:10
Atticus Bertrams punt blocked by Troy Bowles blocked by Troy Bowles
80.7%
0.0
MICH · Drive 8FG · 8 plays · 44 yds
Q2 8:51
Bryce Underwood run for 6 yds to the MICH 40
82.8%
+2.1
Q2 8:32
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the MICH 43
83.3%
+0.5
Q2 7:55
Jordan Marshall run for 2 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST down
83.6%
+0.2
Q2 7:12
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Andrew Marsh for 32 yds to the WIS 23 for a 1ST down
83.5%
-0.1
Q2 6:55
Jordan Marshall run for 5 yds to the WIS 18
84.2%
+0.7
Q2 6:27
Bryce Underwood sacked by Jay'viar Suggs for a loss of 4 yards to the WIS 22
84.0%
-0.2
Q2 5:48
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Semaj Morgan
83.9%
-0.1
Q2 5:43
Dominic Zvada 40 yd FG GOOD
87.4%
+3.5
WIS · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · 8 yds
Q2 5:43
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
87.0%
-0.3
Q2 5:33
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 7 yds to the WIS 32
85.9%
-1.1
Q2 4:56
Darrion Dupree run for 1 yd to the WIS 33
85.9%
0.0
Q2 4:18
Timeout Wisconsin, clock 04:18
85.7%
-0.3
Q2 4:05
Jackson Acker run for no gain to the WIS 33
85.4%
-0.3
Q2 3:27
Atticus Bertrams punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 23
85.4%
0.0
MICH · Drive 10PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q2 3:17
Jordan Marshall run for 2 yds to the MICH 25
86.6%
+1.2
Q2 2:48
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulley
85.6%
-1.0
Q2 2:31
Bryce Underwood run for 6 yds to the MICH 31
85.6%
0.0
Q2 1:59
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 41 yds
84.9%
-0.6
WIS · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · 23 yds
Q2 1:59
Timeout Michigan, clock 01:59
83.5%
-1.4
Q2 1:53
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 16 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST down
84.5%
+1.0
Q2 1:44
Tyrell Henry run for 5 yds to the WIS 49
83.5%
-1.0
Q2 1:08
Dilin Jones run for 2 yds to the MICH 49
83.4%
-0.1
Q2 0:34
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Trech Kekahuna
83.1%
-0.2
Q2 0:24
Atticus Bertrams punt for 43 yds
82.7%
-0.4
MICH · Drive 12END OF HALF · 2 plays · 5 yds
Q2 0:20
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Semaj Morgan
84.7%
+2.0
Q2 0:00
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the MICH 11
84.3%
-0.4
MICH · Drive 13MISSED FG · 13 plays · 66 yds
Q3 15:00
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
83.3%
-1.0
Q3 14:52
Justice Haynes run for 6 yds to the MICH 31
84.8%
+1.5
Q3 14:20
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Andrew Marsh for 13 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST down
85.2%
+0.4
Q3 13:45
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 1 yd to the MICH 45
85.4%
+0.3
Q3 13:09
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Andrew Marsh for 26 yds to the WIS 29 for a 1ST down
85.4%
-0.1
Q3 12:39
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Haynes,Justice rush left for 5 yards gain to the WIS24 (Hallman,Ricardo) PENALTY UOM Holding (Bredeson,Max) 10 yards from WIS29 to WIS39. NO PLAY.
85.8%
+0.5
Q3 12:16
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Zack Marshall for 11 yds to the WIS 28
85.8%
0.0
Q3 11:43
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the WIS 28
85.7%
-0.1
Q3 11:04
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 19 yds Semaj Morgan fumbled, recovered by MICH Semaj Morgan for a 1ST down
85.1%
-0.6
Q3 10:21
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 12
85.3%
+0.1
Q3 10:04
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the WIS 9
86.5%
+1.2
Q3 9:29
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Marlin Klein
86.4%
-0.1
Q3 9:26
Dominic Zvada 27 yd FG MISSED
86.0%
-0.4
WIS · Drive 14PUNT · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q3 9:18
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the WIS 21
82.4%
-3.7
Q3 8:33
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Lance Mason
82.3%
-0.1
Q3 8:26
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Lance Mason
82.3%
0.0
Q3 8:21
Atticus Bertrams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 37
82.3%
0.0
MICH · Drive 15PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q3 8:11
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 34
85.9%
+3.6
Q3 7:37
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 10 yds to the MICH 44
85.7%
-0.2
Q3 7:01
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Marlin Klein
86.0%
+0.3
Q3 6:50
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 51 yds , Tyrell Henry returns for 5 yds to the WIS 10
85.6%
-0.3
WIS · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q3 6:44
Dilin Jones run for no gain to the WIS 10
82.3%
-3.3
Q3 6:03
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 5 yds to the WIS 15
82.3%
0.0
Q3 5:23
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Vinny Anthony II
83.4%
+1.0
Q3 5:14
Atticus Bertrams punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 33
82.8%
-0.5
MICH · Drive 17TD · 4 plays · 67 yds
Q3 5:08
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 33 yds to the WIS 34 for a 1ST down
84.6%
+1.8
Q3 4:45
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 5 yds to the WIS 29
84.6%
-0.1
Q3 4:11
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 29 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
97.5%
+12.9
Q3 4:06
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 63 yds , Vinny Anthony II return for 21 yds to the WIS 44 Wisconsin Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WIS 13
83.5%
-14.0
WIS · Drive 18INT · 3 plays · 31 yds
Q3 3:53
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 27 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST down
93.9%
+10.5
Q3 3:11
Darrion Dupree run for 4 yds to the WIS 44
93.9%
0.0
Q3 2:29
Hunter Simmons pass intercepted Rod Moore return for no gain to the MICH 17
94.0%
+0.1
MICH · Drive 19DOWNS · 10 plays · 52 yds
Q3 2:21
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the MICH 18
97.5%
+3.5
Q3 1:43
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 6 yds to the MICH 24
97.6%
+0.1
Q3 1:07
Justice Haynes run for 23 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST down
97.6%
0.0
Q3 0:28
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Kendrick Bell
97.6%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the WIS 49
97.8%
+0.2
Q4 14:48
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 13 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST down
97.8%
0.0
Q4 14:15
Semaj Morgan run for 2 yds to the WIS 34
97.8%
0.0
Q4 13:44
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 6 yds to the WIS 28
97.8%
-0.1
Q4 13:14
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Jalen Hoffman
97.6%
-0.1
Q4 13:08
Bryce Underwood run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 31 Bryce Underwood fumbled, recovered by MICH Bryce Underwood
97.6%
0.0
WIS · Drive 20PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q4 13:03
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Lance Mason
94.8%
-2.9
Q4 12:52
Darrion Dupree run for 5 yds to the WIS 36
94.8%
0.0
Q4 12:19
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Trech Kekahuna
94.9%
+0.1
Q4 12:11
Atticus Bertrams punt for 38 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 13 yds to the MICH 39
94.9%
0.0
MICH · Drive 21TD · 7 plays · 61 yds
Q4 12:04
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 12 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST down
97.6%
+2.7
Q4 11:30
Justice Haynes run for 11 yds to the WIS 38 for a 1ST down
97.7%
+0.1
Q4 11:09
Justice Haynes run for 8 yds to the WIS 30
97.7%
0.0
Q4 10:34
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the WIS 26 for a 1ST down
97.7%
0.0
Q4 9:54
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 25 yds to the WIS 1 for a 1ST down
97.6%
-0.1
Q4 9:37
PENALTY WIS Offside (Alliegro,Christian). NO PLAY.
97.6%
0.0
Q4 9:24
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
99.5%
+1.9
WIS · Drive 22FG · 16 plays · 53 yds
Q4 9:24
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.5%
0.0
Q4 9:18
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 16 yds to the WIS 41 for a 1ST down
98.9%
-0.5
Q4 8:51
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 20 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q4 8:11
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 6 yds to the MICH 33
98.9%
0.0
Q4 7:30
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for no gain to the MICH 33
98.8%
-0.1
Q4 6:55
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Vinny Anthony II
98.8%
0.0
Q4 6:42
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Grant Stec for 7 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST down
98.8%
0.0
Q4 6:14
Dilin Jones run for 7 yds to the MICH 19
98.8%
0.0
Q4 5:35
Darrion Dupree run for 2 yds to the MICH 17
98.8%
0.0
Q4 4:58
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Jackson Acker for 5 yds to the MICH 12 for a 1ST down
98.9%
+0.1
Q4 4:42
Timeout Michigan, clock 04:42
98.8%
-0.1
Q4 4:39
Hunter Simmons pass incomplete to Darrion Dupree
98.8%
0.0
Q4 4:27
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Lance Mason for 7 yds to the MICH 5
98.8%
0.0
Q4 3:51
(03:53) PENALTY WIS False Start (Kodanko,Kerry) 5 yards from UOM05 to UOM10. NO PLAY.
98.8%
0.0
Q4 3:25
Hunter Simmons sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 12 yards to the MICH 22
98.8%
0.0
Q4 2:43
Nathanial Vakos 39 yd FG GOOD
97.6%
-1.1
MICH · Drive 23END OF GAME · 8 plays · 40 yds
Q4 2:42
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 11 yds , Channing Goodwin return for 3 yds to the WIS 43
97.7%
+0.1
Q4 2:36
Jordan Marshall run for 4 yds to the WIS 39
99.2%
+1.5
Q4 2:00
Timeout Michigan, clock 02:00
99.2%
0.0
Q4 1:51
Jordan Marshall run for 2 yds to the WIS 37
99.2%
0.0
Q4 1:05
Jordan Marshall run for 7 yds to the WIS 30 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q4 0:33
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 6 yds to the WIS 24
99.2%
0.0
Q4 0:24
Jordan Marshall run for 19 yds to the WIS 5 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Jordan Marshall run for 2 yds to the WIS 3
99.2%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:06
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 63 yds , Vinny Anthony II return for 21 yds to the WIS 44 Wisconsin Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WIS 13
-14
TD · Q3 4:11
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 29 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+12.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:53
Hunter Simmons pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 27 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST down
+10.5