2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Rose Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scorePSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:06 · Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for no gain Kyron Hudson fumbled, recovered by PSU Drew Allar
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialOffense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 7:20: Mateen Bhaghani 24 Yd Field Goal — UCLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 4:47: Nico Iamaleava 3 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick) — UCLA win probability +11.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Mateen Bhaghani 54 Yd Field Goal — UCLA win probability +14.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:19: Liam Clifford 6 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Barker Kick) — UCLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:26: Kaytron Allen 2 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 7:20UCLA 4th & 5 at PSU 6, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.4%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call11.4%91% to makePunt10.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 8:04PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snapGo for it72.8%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.1%average punt
- Q2 0:27PSU 4th & 2 at UCLA 36, down 17Close callWent for it · 50.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.2%−0.457% to convertField goal50.6%42% to makePunt46.8%−3.8average punt
- Q3 13:16UCLA 4th & 10 at PSU 38, up 23Close callKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snapGo for it74.3%30% to convertField goalTheir call74.0%−0.238% to makePunt74.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 7:19UCLA 4th & 25 at UCLA 33, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it82.9%−3.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.4%average punt
- Q3 0:58PSU 4th & 1 at UCLA 46, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%70% to convertField goal2.8%−2.223% to makePunt3.6%−1.4average punt
- Q4 2:01UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 34, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:40PSU 4th & 2 at UCLA 9, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%54% to convertField goal0.5%−0.189% to makePunt0.4%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:26UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.4%97% to makeGo for two9.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:47UCLA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.2%97% to makeGo for two41.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCLADrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:335% → 5%
Q1 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
4.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 12 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
4.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 4 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-5
4.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for no gain to the PSU 29 UCLA Penalty, illegal formation (Rico Flores Jr.) to the PSU 34Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
5.0%
Kwazi Gilmer 11 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2FG8 plays · 40 yds · 3:045% → 6%
Q1 9:39
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
5.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 7 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
5.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 24 yds to the PSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
5.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mikey Matthews, broken up by A.J. HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1294% → 94%
Q1 6:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
5.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 5 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
5.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Trebor Pena for 7 yds Drew Allar fumbled, recovered by PSU Trebor PenaSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
5.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 15 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+11
5.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Andrew Rappleyea for 11 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4491% → 89%
UCLADrive 5TD6 plays · 68 yds · 3:0611% → 25%
PSUDrive 6DOWNS10 plays · 28 yds · 4:1976% → 85%
Q2 4:02
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+20
26.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 20 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
29.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 6 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+15
28.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Devonte Ross for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Scooter Jackson) to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-11
15.3%
Drew Allar sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 11 yards to the UCLA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7FG3 plays · 17 yds · 0:2017% → 32%
PSUDrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3445% → 45%
UCLADrive 9MISSED FG5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0052% → 51%
PSUDrive 10TD5 plays · 62 yds · 1:4243% → 36%
Q3 12:54
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
57.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Andrew Rappleyea for 3 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
63.1%
Drew Allar run for 10 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Offensive holding (Kyron Hudson) to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0359% → 73%
UCLADrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2376% → 92%
PSUDrive 13TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2814% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD15 plays · 75 yds · 7:4495% → 100%
Q4 13:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+26
97.0%
Nico Iamaleava run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
98.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 5 yds to the PSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+5
98.8%
Penn State Penalty, off-side (Zane Durant) to the PSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
99.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for no gain to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.5%
Nico Iamaleava 7 Yd Run (Nico Iamaleava Pass to Kwazi Gilmer for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 8 yds to the PSU 44Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+17
99.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 17 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+3
99.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 3 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+12
99.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Trebor Pena for 12 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 2:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 20 yds · 1:202% → 2%
UCLADrive 18SF4 plays · -1 yds · 0:1999% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19FUMBLE4 plays · 0 yds · 0:041% → 1%
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Mateen Bhaghani 54 Yd Field Goal
+14.9
TD · Q2 4:47
Nico Iamaleava 3 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
+11.7
TD · Q4 14:26
Kaytron Allen 2 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)
-2