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ORE

Oregon 30 at Penn State 24

PSU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:55 · Gabriel Nwosu punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 50Home team on offense+1.7Pregame prior+8.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:30: Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 35 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +21.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. TD · Q4 0:30: Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +50.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: K.Allen rushed for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — PSU win probability +25.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: D.Moore pass complete. Catch made by J.Johnson for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — ORE win probability +50.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: D.Moore pass complete. Catch made by G.Bryant for 25 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — ORE win probability +27.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:52ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:12PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:22ORE 4th & 3 at PSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:24PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.4%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:26PSU 4th & 4 at ORE 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:25ORE 4th & 2 at PSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−1.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:36ORE 4th & 3 at PSU 29, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:55PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:20ORE 4th & 1 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.3%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:42ORE 4th & 4 at PSU 24, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−5.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:06PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:11PSU 4th & 9 at ORE 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:22PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:25ORE 4th & 1 at PSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−3.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−13.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:07ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−5.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:06PSU 4th & 1 at ORE 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%−5.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−10.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:34PSU 4th & 1 at ORE 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%−8.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−14.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 28, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 7.7 ptsWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%−7.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 3:16ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:25ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:30PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:30PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−6.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:5937% → 37%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.5%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
63.4%
Dante Moore pass complete to Noah Whittington for 3 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
63.4%
Jordon Davison run for 2 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
63.3%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 6 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
63.1%
Jayden Limar run for 3 yds to the ORE 45Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
63.1%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the ORE 45Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-4
63.1%
PENALTY ORE False Start (Johnson,Jamari) 4 yards from ORE45 to ORE41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
63.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds , Devonte Ross returns for no gain to the PSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1863% → 63%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
63.2%
Trebor Pena run for 3 yds to the PSU 18Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
63.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 20Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
62.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Luke ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+7
62.8%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 55 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 7 yds to the ORE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 5:4437% → 38%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
63.0%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Dakorien MooreSimilar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
63.0%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the ORE 38Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+3
62.7%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
62.7%
Dante Moore run for 2 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
62.2%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Kenyon SadiqSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
62.4%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 8 yds to the PSU 49Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
62.0%
Dante Moore run for 4 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
61.7%
Kenyon Sadiq run for no gain to the PSU 45Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
61.6%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dierre Hill Jr. for 4 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+3
61.6%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 3 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+2
62.0%
Dante Moore run for 2 yds to the PSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:4563% → 64%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
63.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for a loss of 8 yards to the PSU 28Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
63.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+2
62.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+15
62.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 15 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
63.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
63.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the ORE 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-2
64.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 49Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+13
63.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 13 yds to the ORE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
64.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
64.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
64.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Andrew RappleyeaSimilar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
64.0%
Ryan Barker 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:3536% → 37%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
64.0%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 24 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
62.4%
Dante Moore pass complete to Malik Benson for 4 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
62.3%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Jeremiah McClellanSimilar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+4
62.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 4 yds to the PSU 43Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+7
63.3%
Dante Moore pass complete to Malik Benson for 7 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.2%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Noah WhittingtonSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
62.2%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+5
62.3%
Dante Moore run for 5 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
63.1%
Atticus Sappington 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0764% → 63%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
63.9%
Drew Allar sacked by Matayo Uiagalelei for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 27Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+5
63.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
64.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Luke ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
63.2%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:0736% → 42%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 9 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
62.9%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
62.6%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Malik BensonSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
63.0%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 2 yds to the ORE 43Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
63.3%
Dante Moore pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 1
50
+20
63.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 20 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
61.1%
Jordon Davison run for 6 yds to the PSU 24Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
60.8%
Jayden Limar run for no gain to the PSU 24Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
61.8%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Dakorien MooreSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
57.9%
Atticus Sappington 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
14 plays · 24 yds · 2:2762% → 61%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 26Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
61.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 7 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
61.5%
Drew Allar run for 5 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
62.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Trebor Pena for 4 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-2
63.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 40Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+14
62.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 14 yds to the ORE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
65.4%
PENALTY PSU False Start (Dawkins,Nick) 5 yards from ORE46 to PSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
63.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Luke ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
63.1%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 15
OWN 49
0
62.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
61.4%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9END OF HALF
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:5640% → 37%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
59.6%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 7 yds to the ORE 17Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+7
59.3%
Dante Moore pass complete to Noah Whittington for 7 yds to the ORE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
59.0%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 13 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
57.8%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Moore,Dante pass complete short right to Whittington,Noah caught at ORE42, for 6 yards to the ORE43 (Collins,Audavion), out of bounds PENALTY ORE Holding (World,Isaiah) 10 yards from ORE37 to ORE27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
59.0%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Jeremiah McClellanSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+7
59.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 7 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+6
62.6%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jayden Limar for 6 yds to the ORE 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:3962% → 61%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
62.8%
Trebor Pena run for 3 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
61.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
61.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 16 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
64.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the ORE 45Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
64.2%
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
64.3%
Drew Allar sacked by Teitum Tuioti for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 39Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+3
63.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the ORE 36Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
63.6%
Drew Allar run for no gain to the ORE 36Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
60.5%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:5544% → 70%
Q3 9:11
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
56.2%
PENALTY ORE False Start (Sadiq,Kenyon) 5 yards from ORE27 to ORE22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
57.4%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jayden Limar for 7 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
56.2%
Oregon Penalty, False Start (Kenyon Sadiq) to the ORE 22Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
57.5%
Jayden Limar run for 5 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+23
57.2%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
50
+3
53.1%
Jayden Limar run for 3 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+24
52.9%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 24 yds to the PSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
51.1%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 6 yds to the PSU 17Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
50.8%
Jordon Davison run for 1 yd to the PSU 16Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+7
51.8%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 7 yds to the PSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
49.8%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the PSU 8Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
30.4%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dierre Hill Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5439% → 36%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 1 yd to the PSU 26Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
36.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
35.6%
Gabriel Nwosu punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5067% → 91%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.5%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 11 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
31.8%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 9 yds to the ORE 45Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+3
30.4%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 3 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
30.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
50
+4
28.3%
Dante Moore run for 4 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+29
28.7%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 29 yds to the PSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
25.0%
Jayden Limar run for 3 yds to the PSU 14Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-3
24.9%
Dierre Hill Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 17Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+9
25.0%
Dante Moore run for 9 yds to the PSU 8Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+8
9.0%
Jordon Davison run for 8 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4515% → 39%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
15.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 9 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+19
15.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 19 yds to the ORE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
16.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Trebor Pena for 12 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
38.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 35 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 7 yds · 3:2376% → 77%
Q4 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
24.5%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Dakorien MooreSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-15
24.9%
PENALTY ORE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Harkey,Alex) 15 yards from ORE40 to ORE25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.9%
Dante Moore run for 4 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
23.2%
Jayden Limar run for 3 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
23.0%
Dante Moore pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 4 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
21.7%
Dante Moore pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 4 yds to the ORE 40Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
20.2%
Dante Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-15
20.5%
Oregon Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alex Harkey) to the ORE 25Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+7
23.9%
Dante Moore pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 7 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
23.1%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
20 plays · 62 yds · 6:3729% → 67%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
29.1%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Luke ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-5
36.0%
PENALTY PSU False Start (Dawkins,Nick) 5 yards from ORE27 to ORE32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
27.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
26.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 39Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+20
25.4%
Drew Allar run for 20 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
30.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
29.8%
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
29.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the ORE 32Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
27.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the ORE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
31.4%
Drew Allar run for 3 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-5
31.6%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Nick Dawkins) to the ORE 32Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+5
28.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+6
27.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the ORE 21Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
24.0%
Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the ORE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
25.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 7 yds to the ORE 12Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
20.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ORE 10Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+3
16.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the ORE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
67.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2051% → 44%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.4%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 3 yds to the ORE 28Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
48.5%
Dante Moore pass incomplete to Kenyon SadiqSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
51.1%
Jayden Limar run for no gain to the ORE 28Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
56.1%
Dante Moore pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0068% → 93%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
67.5%
D.Allar pass complete. Catch made by K.Allen for 5 yards. Tackled by ORE at ORE 20.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+16
67.5%
T.Pena rushed for 16 yards. Tackled by T.Johnson at ORE 4.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.0%
K.Allen rushed for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0014% → 61%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
85.6%
D.Hill rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by Z.Tracy at PSU 22.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
85.6%
D.Moore pass complete. Catch made by G.Bryant for 8 yards. Tackled by PSU at PSU 14.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
85.6%
D.Moore rushed for -3 yards. D.Moore FUMBLES, forced by PSU. Fumble RECOVERED by ORE-D.Moore at PSU 17. Tackled by PSU at PSU 17.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+5
87.2%
D.Moore rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by K.Mack; A.Ford at PSU 12.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+7
87.6%
D.Moore pass complete. Catch made by J.Limar for 7 yards. Tackled by T.Rojas; A.Harris at PSU 5. The Replay Official reviewed the targeting and the play was upheld.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
89.5%
D.Moore rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by Z.Durant at PSU 2.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.4%
D.Moore pass complete. Catch made by J.Johnson for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
11.5%
D.Moore pass complete. Catch made by G.Bryant for 25 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
31.9%
D.Allar pass INTERCEPTED at ORE 19. Intercepted by D.Thieneman at ORE 19. Tackled by PSU at ORE 19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:30
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
+50.6
TD · OT 0:00
D.Moore pass complete. Catch made by J.Johnson for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-50.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-31.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com