2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreOSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:05 · Grady Gross 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:08: Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 18 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the WASH 41 — OSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Ethan Moczulski kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — WASH win probability +3.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:19: CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:56: Julian Sayin pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 4 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:17WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it29.0%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.0%average punt
- Q1 8:40OSU 4th & 1 at WASH 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.3%67% to convertField goal69.0%−0.392% to makePunt68.1%−1.2average punt
- Q1 5:00WASH 4th & 11 at WASH 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it31.8%−0.524% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q2 14:05WASH 4th & 10 at OSU 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snapGo for it35.8%−0.424% to convertField goalTheir call36.2%88% to makePunt33.9%−2.3average punt
- Q2 10:36OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snapGo for it59.7%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%average punt
- Q2 7:43WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 45, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt40.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 4:39WASH 4th & 14 at OSU 27, up 3Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 42.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.6%−1.618% to convertField goal42.2%62% to makePunt37.5%−4.8average punt
- Q3 3:49WASH 4th & 10 at OSU 10, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snapGo for it18.7%−1.124% to convertField goalTheir call19.9%88% to makePunt13.2%−6.7average punt
- Q4 13:19OSU 4th & 5 at WASH 16, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snapGo for it80.6%−0.639% to convertField goalTheir call81.2%81% to makePunt73.3%−7.9average punt
- Q4 8:44WASH 4th & 2 at OSU 47, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.2%−1.6average punt
- Q4 4:56OSU 4th & 1 at WASH 4, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.8%65% to convertField goal89.4%−1.593% to makePunt85.9%−4.9average punt
- Q4 3:19WASH 4th & 15 at WASH 21, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 1:08OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.4%97% to makeGo for two65.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:19OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.2%97% to makeGo for two78.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:56OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3827% → 28%
Q1 13:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
27.8%
Luke Dunne punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2DOWNS9 plays · 45 yds · 4:3272% → 70%
Q1 12:38
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+6
27.9%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 6 yds · 3:3230% → 31%
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+16
30.0%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 16 yds to the WASH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
30.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 7 yds to the WASH 19Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 13
OWN 9
-5
30.7%
(06:05) PENALTY WASHJ Illegal Snap (Hatchett,Landen) 5 yards from WASHJ09 to WASHJ04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 18
OWN 4
+7
30.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Raiden Vines-Bright for 7 yds to the WASH 11Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+32
31.0%
Luke Dunne punt for 42 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 32 yds to the WASH 21 Brandon Inniss fumbled, recovered by OSU Decker DegraafSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4FG12 plays · 69 yds · 5:5032% → 36%
Q1 3:19
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+17
33.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 17 yds to the OSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
34.4%
(02:47) PENALTY WASHJ False Start (Willis,Carver) 5 yards from OSU27 to OSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+20
34.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 20 yds to the OSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
35.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Quentin Moore for 10 yds to the OSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
36.0%
PENALTY WASHJ False Start (Hatchett,Geirean) 5 yards from OSU03 to OSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:2464% → 61%
WASHDrive 6DOWNS11 plays · 48 yds · 5:5038% → 42%
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
41.0%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Omari Evans for 2 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
40.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 1 yd to the WASH 45Similar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
43.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Omari Evans for 22 yds to the OSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-4
45.1%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Kenyatta Jackson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the OSU 22Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+5
44.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Adam Mohammed for 5 yds to the OSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD14 plays · 73 yds · 3:1857% → 71%
Q2 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+11
42.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 11 yds to the OSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
42.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 9 yds to the WASH 48Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+11
41.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 11 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-5
39.6%
(01:14) PENALTY OSU False Start (Tshabola,Tegra) 5 yards from WASHJ13 to WASHJ18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+18
28.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 18 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8END OF HALF5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5032% → 31%
OSUDrive 9TD16 plays · 75 yds · 7:3267% → 82%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
33.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 13 yds to the OSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
32.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 8 yds to the OSU 46Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
32.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+9
31.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jelani Thurman for 9 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
31.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to James Peoples for 7 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+6
30.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to James Peoples for 6 yds to the WASH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 22
OPP 35
+2
31.4%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 2 yds to the WASH 33Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 20
OPP 33
+15
32.1%
(08:54) Shotgun Sayin,Julian pass incomplete short left thrown to WASHJ25 PENALTY WASHJ Roughing The Passer (Uiagalelei,Ta'ita'i) 15 yards from WASHJ33 to WASHJ18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+11
32.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 11 yds to the WASH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10FG9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1721% → 24%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
21.0%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 18 yds to the WASH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+18
23.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the OSU 45 for a 1ST down Ohio State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tywone Malone Jr.) to the OSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
24.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 23 yds to the OSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
24.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Raiden Vines-Bright for 3 yds to the OSU 3Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
22.1%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Kayden McDonald for a loss of 7 yards to the OSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11FG13 plays · 59 yds · 5:2279% → 84%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
21.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 12 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
20.4%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 11 yds to the OSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+11
17.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 11 yds to the WASH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
17.1%
(15:00) Shotgun Sayin,Julian pass incomplete deep left to Klare,Max thrown to WASHJ01 PENALTY OSU Holding (Daniels,Phillip) 10 yards from WASHJ21 to WASHJ31. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12DOWNS11 plays · 25 yds · 4:2217% → 14%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
16.6%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Dezmen Roebuck for 4 yds to the WASH 23Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+4
15.4%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 4 yds to the WASH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+15
13.5%
Ohio State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Caden Curry) to the WASH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
14.8%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-9
13.6%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Kayden McDonald for a loss of 9 yards to the WASH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD10 plays · 44 yds · 3:4290% → 98%
Q4 7:48
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+18
9.9%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 18 yds to the WASH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
8.4%
Julian Sayin sacked by Jacob Lane for a loss of 7 yards to the WASH 20Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+4
1.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 4 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+14
1.9%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 14 yds to the WASH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-7
1.9%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Caden Curry for a loss of 7 yards to the WASH 21Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
1.8%
Luke Dunne punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15END OF GAME6 plays · 31 yds · 3:1499% → 99%
Q4 1:52
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+19
1.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 19 yds to the OSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:19
CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q2 1:08
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 18 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-11
TD · Q4 4:56
Julian Sayin pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 4 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-6.2