2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreUCLA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:50 · Jack Olsen 20 Yard Field Goal Missed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsPregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:29: Caleb Komolafe 9 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick) — NU win probability +6.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 3:33: Griffin Wilde 10 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick) — NU win probability +21.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:48: Mateen Bhaghani 25 Yd Field Goal — NU win probability +3.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:22: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for no gain to the UCLA 35 — UCLA win probability +43.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- PUNT · Q4 1:55: Will Karoll punt for 45 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 1 yd to the NU 47 — UCLA win probability +21.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 11:41UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it33.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.0%average punt
- Q1 4:44NU 4th & 4 at UCLA 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.4%48% to convertField goal66.2%−0.254% to makePunt65.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 2:24NU 4th & 14 at UCLA 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snapGo for it64.9%−0.616% to convertField goalTheir call65.4%83% to makePunt63.6%−1.9average punt
- Q1 1:35UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.2%average punt
- Q2 11:25UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt26.9%−1.0average punt
- Q2 6:18UCLA 4th & 3 at NU 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.3%53% to convertField goal25.2%−1.147% to makePunt24.6%−1.7average punt
- Q3 9:07NU 4th & 10 at UCLA 37, up 11Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snapGo for it81.8%30% to convertField goal81.8%−<0.140% to makePuntTheir call81.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 2:48UCLA 4th & 7 at NU 7, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snapGo for it15.1%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call15.5%91% to makePunt10.5%−5.0average punt
- Q3 0:40NU 4th & 1 at NU 40, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt82.5%−3.3average punt
- Q4 7:50NU 4th & 2 at UCLA 2, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snapGo for it89.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call87.9%−1.794% to makePunt81.1%−8.5average punt
- Q4 3:23NU 4th & 4 at NU 49, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 59.6% before the snapGo for it60.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.0%−3.6average punt
- Q4 1:55UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snapGo for it33.9%−9.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.7%average punt
- Q4 1:29NU 4th & 7 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 57.3% before the snapGo for it54.0%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.8%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 13:29NU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.8%97% to makeGo for two72.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:33NU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCLADrive 1PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:1832% → 37%
Q1 14:03
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
66.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 7 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
65.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 15 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-1
63.7%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Garner Wallace and Anto Saka for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+1
63.3%
Will Karoll punt for 44 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 1 yd to the NU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2FG18 plays · 74 yds · 9:0863% → 53%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
61.1%
Northwestern Penalty, false start (Ezomo Oratokhai) to the NU 18Similar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
59.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 15 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
58.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 4 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
56.4%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II, broken up by Robert Stafford IIISimilar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+7
55.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 7 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+20
55.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 20 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-5
54.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Drew Wagner for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 11Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 11
-4
53.8%
Preston Stone sacked by Anthony Jones and A.J. Fuimaono for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3745% → 45%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
55.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 3 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:5752% → 59%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
51.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Hunter Welcing for 22 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5DOWNS15 plays · 47 yds · 7:0645% → 46%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
52.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 9 yds to the NU 42Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
51.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jalen Berger for no gain to the NU 42 Northwestern Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the NU 47Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-2
54.1%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Aidan Hubbard and Michael Kilbane for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 36 UCLA Penalty, illegal formation (Jalen Berger) to the NU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD5 plays · 64 yds · 2:4358% → 76%
UCLADrive 7FG13 plays · 73 yds · 3:2425% → 47%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
75.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 19 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
74.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
62.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
61.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 13 yds to the NU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
59.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 5 yds to the NU 17Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+7
53.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for 7 yds to the NU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT12 plays · 38 yds · 5:5256% → 56%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
56.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Joseph Himon II for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 38Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-3
56.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Drew Wagner for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 35Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+15
54.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-15
56.4%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Alex Lines for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9FG12 plays · 73 yds · 6:1035% → 33%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
64.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 2 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+18
55.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 18 yds to the NU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+9
58.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 9 yds to the NU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kwazi Gilmer, broken up by Ore AdeyiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10MISSED FG19 plays · 67 yds · 9:5041% → 80%
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-15
43.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
81.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Joseph Himon II, broken up by Jalen WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:2834% → 69%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
70.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 11 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
73.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 12 yds to the NU 44 Northwestern Penalty, personal foul (Richie Hagarty) to the NU 29Similar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
30.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for no gain to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
30.7%
Kwazi Gilmer 29 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Nico Iamaleava Pass to Anthony Woods for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5541% → 47%
Q4 3:27
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
49.8%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Eligon II, broken up by A.J. FuimaonoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2861% → 80%
Q4 3:23
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+4
39.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 4 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
41.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr., broken up by Ore AdeyiSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 8
OWN 9
+1
20.5%
Will Karoll punt for 45 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 1 yd to the NU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2627% → 22%
Q4 1:43
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-3
26.4%
Preston Stone sacked by Gary Smith III and Jalen Woods for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15Uncategorized6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 1:29
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
16.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 9 yds Nico Iamaleava fumbled, recovered by UCLA for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
16.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for no gain to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-7
16.9%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Braydon Brus and Anto Saka for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 26Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 22
OWN 21
+11
18.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 11 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+81.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:22
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Anthony Woods for no gain to the UCLA 35
-43.2
PUNT · Q4 1:55
Will Karoll punt for 45 yds , Drew Wagner returns for 1 yd to the NU 47
-21.3