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USC

USC 32 at Illinois 34

ILL
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD-20ILL 69.1%Makai Lemon 19 Yd pass from JaydenMaiava (Jayden Maiava Pass to MakaiLemon for Two-Point Conversion)AWAY 25 - HOME 31 · Q4 9:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:54 · Makai Lemon 19 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jayden Maiava Pass to Makai Lemon for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior−3.1Home team on offense+6.1Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:59: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 64 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +14.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:46: Waymond Jordan run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK) — USC win probability +18.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:54: Makai Lemon 19 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jayden Maiava Pass to Makai Lemon for Two-Point Conversion) — USC win probability +20.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:55: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK) — USC win probability +44.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: David Olano 41 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +63.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:45USC 4th & 1 at USC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06ILL 4th & 1 at USC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:23USC 4th & 1 at ILL 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.4%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:37USC 4th & 6 at ILL 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%−1.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:34ILL 4th & 7 at USC 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−6.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:32ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:44USC 4th & 8 at USC 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:23USC 4th & 3 at USC 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:54USC 4th & 8 at ILL 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:00ILL 4th & 1 at USC 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−22.2
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−48.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:49ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:22USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:49ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:59ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:46USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:34ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:54USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:55USC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FUMBLE
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:0668% → 67%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
31.8%
Jayden Maiava run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
32.0%
Eli Sanders run for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
32.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
32.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Waymond JordanSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
32.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
32.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+4
32.6%
Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
32.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Waymond Jordan for 11 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
33.0%
Waymond Jordan run for 7 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+3
33.0%
Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the ILL 30 Waymond Jordan fumbled, recovered by ILL Jaheim ClarkeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:5434% → 40%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
33.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+11
34.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 11 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
34.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
35.1%
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
35.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Davin StoffelSimilar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
34.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 3 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
35.6%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Marcelles Williams) to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
36.0%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
36.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+12
39.7%
Luke Altmyer run for 12 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
Q1 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.1%
PENALTY USC Offside (Nicholson,DeCarlos) 2 yards from USC03 to USC01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1761% → 65%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.1%
Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
39.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for 6 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
39.8%
Waymond Jordan run for 9 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
40.1%
Waymond Jordan run for 6 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
40.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jaden RichardsonSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+30
40.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 30 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
39.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Eli Sanders for 10 yds to the ILL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
39.5%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Hines,Tanook thrown to ILL00 PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Cox Jr.,Torrie) 9 yards from ILL11 to ILL02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.6%
Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd to the ILL 1Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.1%
Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2638% → 48%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.9%
Aidan Laughery run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
38.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
37.8%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete deep left to Clement,Hudson thrown to USC50 PENALTY USC Offside declined USC Pass Interference (Nicholson,DeCarlos) 15 yards from ILL30 to ILL45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
39.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Christian Abney for 12 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
40.1%
Aidan Laughery run for no gain to the USC 43Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+18
40.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 18 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Tanner ArkinSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
41.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 6 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+11
41.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 11 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
42.0%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
42.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 3 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
48.2%
Hank Beatty pass complete to Luke Altmyer for 3 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Christian Pierce) to the USC 0 (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5DOWNS
16 plays · 38 yds · 6:0754% → 49%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
46.4%
PENALTY USC Delay Of Game 5 yards from USC20 to USC15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
46.6%
Eli Sanders run for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+15
47.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 15 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
46.8%
Eli Sanders run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 16
OWN 25
-5
48.5%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass complete deep right to Lemon,Makai caught at ILL42, for 75 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:59 PENALTY USC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Reed,J'Onre) 5 yards from USC25 to USC20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 21
OWN 20
+6
48.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to King Miller for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+18
50.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 18 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
47.9%
Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
47.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Waymond JordanSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+4
48.1%
Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+1
49.3%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
48.7%
Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
49.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
49.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
51.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6FUMBLE
14 plays · 54 yds · 3:4055% → 60%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
55.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 9 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+6
56.5%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 6 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
57.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 1 yd to the USC 42Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
57.5%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 5 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-10
55.5%
(01:56) Shotgun Beatty,Hank rush right for 4 yards gain to the USC33 (Crawford,Kameryn) PENALTY ILL Holding (Henderson,Brandon) 10 yards from USC37 to USC47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+16
53.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 16 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
57.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ca'Lil Valentine for 5 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+12
57.8%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 12 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
58.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
58.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
60.1%
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26 Kaden Feagin fumbled, recovered by USC Jahkeem StewartSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
60.1%
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26 Kaden Feagin fumbled, recovered by USC Jahkeem StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 0:4245% → 52%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
54.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 20 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
52.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for 9 yds to the ILL 45Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+24
52.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 24 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
50.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds to the ILL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
50.5%
Eli Sanders run for 1 yd to the ILL 4Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jay FairSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
48.4%
Ryon Sayeri 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.0%
L. Altmyer takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:1451% → 61%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
50.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 18 yds to the ILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
53.1%
Aidan Laughery run for 4 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
53.9%
Aidan Laughery run for 7 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
54.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 17 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-8
55.7%
Luke Altmyer sacked by DeCarlos Nicholson for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+11
53.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 11 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
55.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Alexander Capka-JonesSimilar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+45
61.0%
David Olano 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:3740% → 43%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
59.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
58.8%
Waymond Jordan run for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+7
56.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 7 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
57.0%
Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd to the ILL 47Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
57.5%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Dylan Rosiek return for no gain to the ILL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0466% → 64%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
65.5%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 7 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-5
67.4%
(09:09) PENALTY ILL False Start (Priestly,Melvin) 5 yards from ILL43 to ILL38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
66.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson ClementSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
65.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
63.7%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4038% → 35%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.2%
Waymond Jordan run for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
62.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
64.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+9
65.3%
Sam Johnson punt for 53 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 9 yds to the ILL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:3868% → 82%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
67.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+64
82.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 64 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 5:0221% → 39%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
78.6%
Jayden Maiava run for 9 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+16
77.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
77.7%
Jayden Maiava run for 4 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-10
77.6%
USC Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-10 Yards) to the USC 38Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+29
81.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 29 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
77.6%
Waymond Jordan run for 7 yds to the ILL 26Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
78.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jay FairSimilar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+3
80.0%
Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
79.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 5 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+16
79.9%
Husan Longstreet run for 16 yds to the ILL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.2%
Waymond Jordan run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0674% → 91%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.7%
Aidan Laughery run for 2 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+32
76.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 32 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
81.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 12 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
81.5%
Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (-4 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
91.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3413% → 31%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
87.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Waymond Jordan for 1 yd to the USC 36Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
87.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+3
87.3%
Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+6
88.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
87.7%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short left to Lyons,Walker thrown to ILL40 PENALTY ILL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from USC48 to ILL47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+12
88.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 12 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
88.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 14 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
87.9%
Eli Sanders run for 4 yds to the ILL 17Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-2
86.7%
Eli Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 19Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
89.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Eli SandersSimilar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+19
69.1%
Makai Lemon 19 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jayden Maiava Pass to Makai Lemon for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 88 yds · 3:2581% → 87%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
80.5%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 16Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+4
81.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 20Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+5
80.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 5 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.0%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+61
84.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 61 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
87.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 12 yds Ca'Lil Valentine fumbled, recovered by USC Christian PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1625% → 78%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
75.1%
Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
74.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+9
76.0%
Waymond Jordan run for 9 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
74.9%
Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
74.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+9
75.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 9 yds to the ILL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
73.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 18 yds to the ILL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
71.6%
Waymond Jordan run for 13 yds to the ILL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
21.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 1:4745% → 95%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 9 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
47.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for no gain to the ILL 34Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
42.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 8 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
46.6%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short left to Dixon,Collin thrown to USC49 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Harvey,DJ) 12 yards from ILL42 to USC46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
49.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 13 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
53.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
56.1%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the USC 27Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
50.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+41
94.7%
David Olano 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
David Olano 41 yd FG GOOD
+63.4
TD · Q4 1:55
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
-44.3
TD · Q4 9:54
Makai Lemon 19 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jayden Maiava Pass to Makai Lemon for Two-Point Conversion)
-20
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com