YardLine - College football win probability

USC

USC 32 at Illinois 34

ILL

2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Speed4x

Win probability · ILL

modelILL aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey play

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

USC · Drive 1FUMBLE · 11 plays · 45 yds

Q1 15:00

David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

45.6%

0.0

Q1 14:55

Jayden Maiava run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23

42.7%

-2.9

Q1 14:25

Eli Sanders run for 6 yds to the USC 29

42.1%

-0.6

Q1 13:43

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down

42.1%

0.0

Q1 13:18

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Waymond Jordan

41.9%

-0.2

Q1 13:15

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McRee

41.9%

0.0

Q1 13:08

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 9 yds to the USC 45

41.9%

0.0

Q1 12:45

Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST down

40.5%

-1.4

Q1 11:57

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Waymond Jordan for 11 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST down

40.0%

-0.6

Q1 11:22

Waymond Jordan run for 7 yds to the ILL 33

39.6%

-0.4

Q1 10:49

Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the ILL 30 Waymond Jordan fumbled, recovered by ILL Jaheim Clarke

39.6%

0.0

ILL · Drive 2TD · 11 plays · 70 yds

Q1 10:43

Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 35

45.9%

+6.3

Q1 10:07

Kaden Feagin run for 11 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST down

45.9%

0.0

Q1 9:33

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 6 yds to the USC 48

47.0%

+1.1

Q1 9:01

Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds to the USC 45

48.1%

+1.1

Q1 8:21

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Davin Stoffel

47.8%

-0.3

Q1 8:06

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 3 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down

47.5%

-0.3

Q1 7:36

USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Marcelles Williams) to the USC 19 for a 1ST down

48.5%

+1.0

Q1 7:18

Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the USC 16

48.5%

0.0

Q1 6:35

Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the USC 12

48.5%

0.0

Q1 5:49

Luke Altmyer run for 12 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)

62.3%

+13.8

Q1 5:49

PENALTY USC Offside (Nicholson,DeCarlos) 2 yards from USC03 to USC01. NO PLAY.

48.6%

-13.7

USC · Drive 3TD · 11 plays · 75 yds

Q1 5:49

David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

61.4%

+12.8

Q1 5:39

Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the USC 28

56.9%

-4.6

Q1 4:57

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for 6 yds to the USC 34

57.2%

+0.3

Q1 4:20

Waymond Jordan run for 9 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST down

57.2%

0.0

Q1 3:43

Waymond Jordan run for 6 yds to the USC 49

56.3%

-0.9

Q1 3:01

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jaden Richardson

55.8%

-0.5

Q1 2:51

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 30 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST down

55.8%

0.0

Q1 2:22

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Eli Sanders for 10 yds to the ILL 11 for a 1ST down

54.6%

-1.2

Q1 2:04

(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Hines,Tanook thrown to ILL00 PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Cox Jr.,Torrie) 9 yards from ILL11 to ILL02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

54.6%

0.0

Q1 1:56

Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd to the ILL 1

54.6%

0.0

Q1 1:22

Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)

40.3%

-14.3

ILL · Drive 4TD · 14 plays · 75 yds

Q1 1:22

Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

42.9%

+2.6

Q1 1:15

Aidan Laughery run for 5 yds to the ILL 30

46.7%

+3.8

Q1 0:43

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank Beatty

46.8%

+0.1

Q1 0:40

(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete deep left to Clement,Hudson thrown to USC50 PENALTY USC Offside declined USC Pass Interference (Nicholson,DeCarlos) 15 yards from ILL30 to ILL45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

46.8%

0.0

Q1 0:00

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Christian Abney for 12 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST down

48.2%

+1.4

Q2 14:54

Aidan Laughery run for no gain to the USC 43

49.5%

+1.3

Q2 14:17

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 18 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST down

49.7%

+0.1

Q2 13:50

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Tanner Arkin

49.7%

0.0

Q2 13:32

Luke Altmyer run for 6 yds to the USC 19

49.7%

0.0

Q2 12:54

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 11 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST down

49.4%

-0.3

Q2 12:13

Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the USC 6

49.7%

+0.3

Q2 11:34

Timeout Illinois, clock 11:34

49.9%

+0.3

Q2 11:24

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 3 yds to the USC 3

49.9%

0.0

Q2 10:49

Hank Beatty pass complete to Luke Altmyer for 3 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Christian Pierce) to the USC 0 (David Olano KICK)

64.9%

+14.9

USC · Drive 5DOWNS · 16 plays · 38 yds

Q2 10:44

David Olano kickoff for 39 yds , Eli Sanders return for 9 yds to the USC 20

64.9%

0.0

Q2 10:44

PENALTY USC Delay Of Game 5 yards from USC20 to USC15. NO PLAY.

60.6%

-4.4

Q2 10:38

Eli Sanders run for 1 yd to the USC 16

60.8%

+0.3

Q2 10:19

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 15 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST down

60.9%

+0.1

Q2 9:42

Eli Sanders run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 25

60.9%

0.0

Q2 8:59

(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass complete deep right to Lemon,Makai caught at ILL42, for 75 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:59 PENALTY USC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Reed,J'Onre) 5 yards from USC25 to USC20. NO PLAY.

60.9%

0.0

Q2 8:39

Jayden Maiava pass complete to King Miller for 6 yds to the USC 26

60.9%

0.0

Q2 8:12

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 18 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down

61.7%

+0.8

Q2 7:40

Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the USC 49

60.4%

-1.4

Q2 7:11

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Waymond Jordan

60.4%

0.0

Q2 6:54

Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the ILL 47

60.4%

0.0

Q2 6:23

Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd to the ILL 46 for a 1ST down

60.1%

-0.2

Q2 5:27

Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the ILL 42

59.9%

-0.2

Q2 4:48

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McRee

60.9%

+1.0

Q2 4:43

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai Lemon

60.9%

0.0

Q2 4:37

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai Lemon

61.6%

+0.7

ILL · Drive 6FUMBLE · 14 plays · 54 yds

Q2 4:29

Ca'Lil Valentine run for 9 yds to the USC 49

66.8%

+5.2

Q2 3:45

Ca'Lil Valentine run for 6 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST down

67.2%

+0.4

Q2 3:00

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 1 yd to the USC 42

67.4%

+0.2

Q2 2:19

Ca'Lil Valentine run for 5 yds to the USC 37

67.6%

+0.3

Q2 2:00

Timeout Illinois, clock 02:00

67.3%

-0.3

Q2 1:56

(01:56) Shotgun Beatty,Hank rush right for 4 yards gain to the USC33 (Crawford,Kameryn) PENALTY ILL Holding (Henderson,Brandon) 10 yards from USC37 to USC47. NO PLAY.

67.3%

0.0

Q2 1:49

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 16 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST down

67.1%

-0.2

Q2 1:42

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ca'Lil Valentine for 5 yds to the USC 26

67.5%

+0.4

Q2 1:35

Ca'Lil Valentine run for 12 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down

67.5%

0.0

Q2 1:06

Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the USC 9

68.1%

+0.5

Q2 1:01

Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST down

68.1%

0.0

Q2 1:01

Timeout Illinois, clock 01:01

68.2%

+0.1

Q2 0:49

Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26 Kaden Feagin fumbled, recovered by USC Jahkeem Stewart

68.2%

0.0

Q2 0:49

Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26 Kaden Feagin fumbled, recovered by USC Jahkeem Stewart

68.2%

0.0

USC · Drive 7FG · 9 plays · 70 yds

Q2 0:44

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 20 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down

63.2%

-5.0

Q2 0:32

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for 9 yds to the ILL 45

61.9%

-1.3

Q2 0:32

Timeout USC, clock 00:32

61.5%

-0.4

Q2 0:26

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 24 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST down

61.4%

-0.1

Q2 0:19

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds to the ILL 5 for a 1ST down

61.0%

-0.3

Q2 0:11

Eli Sanders run for 1 yd to the ILL 4

61.0%

0.0

Q2 0:11

Timeout USC, clock 00:11

61.0%

0.0

Q2 0:05

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jay Fair

61.0%

0.0

Q2 0:02

Ryon Sayeri 21 yd FG GOOD

53.8%

-7.2

ILL · Drive 8END OF HALF · 2 plays · -1 yds

Q2 0:02

Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

56.9%

+3.0

Q2 0:00

L. Altmyer takes a knee

61.3%

+4.4

ILL · Drive 9FG · 9 plays · 49 yds

Q3 15:00

Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

56.1%

-5.1

Q3 14:48

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 18 yds to the ILL 43 for a 1ST down

62.4%

+6.3

Q3 14:24

Aidan Laughery run for 4 yds to the ILL 47

63.2%

+0.8

Q3 13:48

Aidan Laughery run for 7 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down

63.6%

+0.4

Q3 12:55

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 17 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST down

63.6%

0.0

Q3 12:41

Luke Altmyer sacked by DeCarlos Nicholson for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 37

64.0%

+0.4

Q3 11:56

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 11 yds to the USC 26

64.0%

0.0

Q3 11:39

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Alexander Capka-Jones

63.7%

-0.2

Q3 11:34

David Olano 45 yd FG GOOD

70.5%

+6.8

USC · Drive 10INT · 6 plays · 28 yds

Q3 11:34

David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

69.7%

-0.8

Q3 11:21

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down

62.3%

-7.3

Q3 11:03

Waymond Jordan run for 9 yds to the USC 45

62.3%

0.0

Q3 10:28

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 7 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST down

61.0%

-1.4

Q3 10:15

Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd to the ILL 47

60.8%

-0.1

Q3 9:44

Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Dylan Rosiek return for no gain to the ILL 36

61.1%

+0.2

ILL · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds

Q3 9:36

Ca'Lil Valentine run for 7 yds to the ILL 43

70.9%

+9.9

Q3 9:09

(09:09) PENALTY ILL False Start (Priestly,Melvin) 5 yards from ILL43 to ILL38. NO PLAY.

71.1%

+0.1

Q3 8:44

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson Clement

71.1%

0.0

Q3 8:40

Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank Beatty

70.9%

-0.2

Q3 8:32

Keelan Crimmins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 20

70.3%

-0.6

USC · Drive 12PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds

Q3 8:24

Waymond Jordan run for 2 yds to the USC 22

63.0%

-7.3

Q3 8:01

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai Lemon

63.0%

0.0

Q3 7:55

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Makai Lemon

63.0%

0.0

Q3 7:44

Sam Johnson punt for 53 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 9 yds to the ILL 34

63.0%

0.0

ILL · Drive 13TD · 2 plays · 66 yds

Q3 7:37

Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 36

70.5%

+7.5

Q3 6:59

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 64 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)

83.1%

+12.5

USC · Drive 14TD · 12 plays · 81 yds

Q3 6:54

David Olano kickoff for 63 yds , Eli Sanders return for 17 yds to the USC 19

83.1%

0.0

Q3 6:48

Jayden Maiava run for 9 yds to the USC 28

80.8%

-2.3

Q3 6:24

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down

80.8%

0.0

Q3 5:47

Jayden Maiava run for 4 yds to the USC 48

81.2%

+0.4

Q3 5:18

USC Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-10 Yards) to the USC 38

80.8%

-0.4

Q3 4:44

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 29 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST down

81.0%

+0.2

Q3 4:29

Waymond Jordan run for 7 yds to the ILL 26

79.9%

-1.1

Q3 3:54

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jay Fair

80.7%

+0.8

Q3 3:48

Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST down

80.7%

0.0

Q3 3:02

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 5 yds to the ILL 18

81.1%

+0.4

Q3 2:27

Husan Longstreet run for 16 yds to the ILL 2 for a 1ST down

81.1%

0.0

Q3 1:46

Waymond Jordan run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)

64.4%

-16.7

ILL · Drive 15TD · 6 plays · 75 yds

Q3 1:46

Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

66.7%

+2.3

Q3 1:40

Aidan Laughery run for 2 yds to the ILL 27

74.8%

+8.0

Q3 1:08

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 32 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST down

75.9%

+1.2

Q3 0:00

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 12 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST down

78.2%

+2.3

Q4 14:54

Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (-4 Yards) to the USC 25

78.2%

0.0

Q4 14:34

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 25 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)

88.1%

+9.9

USC · Drive 16TD · 14 plays · 75 yds

Q4 14:34

David Olano kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

87.8%

-0.3

Q4 14:28

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down

86.9%

-0.9

Q4 13:49

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Waymond Jordan for 1 yd to the USC 36

86.9%

0.0

Q4 13:13

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 3 yds to the USC 39

87.4%

+0.5

Q4 13:03

Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the USC 42

87.4%

0.0

Q4 12:23

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST down

88.4%

+1.1

Q4 11:57

(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short left to Lyons,Walker thrown to ILL40 PENALTY ILL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from USC48 to ILL47. NO PLAY.

89.0%

+0.6

Q4 9:54

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 12 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST down

89.3%

+0.3

Q4 9:54

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 14 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST down

89.1%

-0.2

Q4 9:54

Eli Sanders run for 4 yds to the ILL 17

89.1%

0.0

Q4 9:54

Eli Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 19

89.1%

0.0

Q4 9:54

Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Eli Sanders

89.1%

0.0

Q4 9:54

Makai Lemon 19 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jayden Maiava Pass to Makai Lemon for Two-Point Conversion)

68.7%

-20.5

Q4 9:54

Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Illinois Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kenenna Odeluga)

89.3%

+20.6

ILL · Drive 17FUMBLE · 6 plays · 88 yds

Q4 9:46

Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 16

79.2%

-10.2

Q4 9:11

Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 20

79.5%

+0.4

Q4 8:30

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 5 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST down

79.6%

+0.1

Q4 7:52

Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 27

79.8%

+0.1

Q4 6:57

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 61 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST down

80.5%

+0.7

Q4 6:21

Ca'Lil Valentine run for 12 yds Ca'Lil Valentine fumbled, recovered by USC Christian Pierce

81.6%

+1.1

USC · Drive 18TD · 10 plays · 80 yds

Q4 6:11

Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the USC 25

74.6%

-7.0

Q4 5:45

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 4 yds to the USC 29

74.3%

-0.3

Q4 5:11

Waymond Jordan run for 9 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST down

75.2%

+0.9

Q4 4:43

Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the USC 41

74.8%

-0.4

Q4 4:17

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 3 yds to the USC 44

74.3%

-0.5

Q4 3:46

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 9 yds to the ILL 47 for a 1ST down

74.9%

+0.6

Q4 3:06

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 18 yds to the ILL 29 for a 1ST down

74.1%

-0.8

Q4 2:36

Waymond Jordan run for 13 yds to the ILL 16 for a 1ST down

75.8%

+1.7

Q4 2:00

Timeout Illinois, clock 02:00

76.6%

+0.8

Q4 1:55

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)

32.6%

-44.0

ILL · Drive 19FG · 14 plays · 51 yds

Q4 1:55

Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

34.3%

+1.7

Q4 1:47

Kaden Feagin run for 9 yds to the ILL 34

45.9%

+11.6

Q4 1:19

Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for no gain to the ILL 34

43.1%

-2.8

Q4 1:03

Kaden Feagin run for 8 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST down

41.2%

-1.9

Q4 0:55

(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short left to Dixon,Collin thrown to USC49 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Harvey,DJ) 12 yards from ILL42 to USC46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

41.9%

+0.6

Q4 0:50

Luke Altmyer run for 13 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST down

43.2%

+1.3

Q4 0:50

Timeout USC, clock 00:50

44.2%

+1.1

Q4 0:43

Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the USC 27

44.2%

0.0

Q4 0:41

Timeout USC, clock 00:41

44.2%

0.0

Q4 0:35

Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the USC 27

43.9%

-0.3

Q4 0:35

Timeout Illinois, clock 00:35

43.6%

-0.2

Q4 0:28

Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the USC 24

43.6%

0.0

Q4 0:04

Timeout Illinois, clock 00:04

33.2%

-10.4

Q4 0:00

David Olano 41 yd FG GOOD

88.9%

+55.6

Biggest swings

FG · Q4 0:00

David Olano 41 yd FG GOOD

+55.6

TD · Q4 1:55

Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)

-44

KEY PLAY · Q4 9:54

Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Illinois Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kenenna Odeluga)

+20.6