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PUR

Purdue 30 at Notre Dame 56

ND
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playND scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · K. Minchey takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:00: Jadarian Price run for 21 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK) — ND win probability +2.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:33: Jadarian Price run for 9 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK) — ND win probability +2.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:00: S. Turner kick for 65 yds,J. Price return for 100 yds for a TD (E. Schmidt KICK) — ND win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:54: J. Love run for 46 yds for a TD — PUR win probability +1.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:52: C. Carr pass to J. Faison for 48 yds for a TD (E. Schmidt KICK) — ND win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 3PUR made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:49PUR 4th & 24 at PUR 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:00PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 40, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:50PUR 4th & 9 at ND 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:46PUR 4th & 5 at ND 8, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:13PUR 4th & 9 at ND 18, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:03PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 43, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:03PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 43, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:47PUR 4th & 15 at PUR 20, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:47PUR 4th & 15 at PUR 20, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:59PUR 4th & 16 at PUR 31, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:19ND 4th & 1 at PUR 13, up 33
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:10PUR 4th & 11 at PUR 19, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:14ND 4th & 1 at PUR 44, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:58ND 4th & 4 at PUR 44, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 7PUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:40ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:58PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:54ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:00ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:33ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:00ND Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:54PUR Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:52ND Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:46ND Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:53PUR Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:045% → 6%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.7%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the PUR 36Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-15
94.6%
Purdue Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the PUR 21Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 24
OWN 21
0
94.6%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse WatsonSimilar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 24
OWN 21
+13
94.5%
Jack McCallister punt for 58 yds , Jordan Faison returns for 13 yds to the ND 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
94.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 66 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:335% → 6%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
94.6%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 23 yds to the PUR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
94.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
94.4%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Arhmad BranchSimilar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+6
94.3%
Ryan Browne pass complete to George Burhenn for 6 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
94.2%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 31 yds to the ND 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
94.1%
PENALTY Purdue False Start (Tanona,Joey) 5 yards from IRISH09 to IRISH14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
93.8%
Devin Mockobee pass complete to Ryan Browne for 14 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:5194% → 94%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
94.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 41Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+10
93.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the PUR 49Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
93.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the PUR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
93.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 17 yds to the PUR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
93.5%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan FaisonSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
93.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the PUR 23Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+13
93.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 13 yds to the PUR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
93.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the PUR 1Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the PUR 1Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5FG
15 plays · 45 yds · 5:576% → 8%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.8%
Antonio Harris run for 1 yd to the PUR 26Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
93.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Antonio Harris for 9 yds to the PUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.7%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
93.7%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan pass complete short middle to Horton,EJ caught at Purdue47, for 12 yards to the Purdue47 (Johnson,Tae) PENALTY Purdue Holding (Tanona,Joey) 10 yards from Purdue35 to Purdue25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+5
93.7%
Ryan Browne run for 5 yds to the PUR 30 Ryan Browne fumbled, recovered by PUR Malachi ThomasSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+10
93.7%
Ryan Browne run for 10 yds to the PUR 40Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+10
93.5%
Jack McCallister run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
50
-1
92.7%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 49Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
92.9%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the PUR 49Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+20
92.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 20 yds to the ND 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
92.2%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the ND 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
92.1%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
92.3%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to EJ Horton Jr.Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
92.0%
Spencer Porath 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4592% → 94%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
91.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 11 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
91.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
91.6%
CJ Carr run for 6 yds to the PUR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
91.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the PUR 45Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-5
91.4%
PENALTY IRISH False Start (Raridon,Eli) 5 yards from Purdue45 to Purdue50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 11
50
+17
91.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 17 yds to the PUR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
91.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the PUR 25Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+4
91.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the PUR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
93.7%
Jadarian Price run for 21 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:587% → 7%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.2%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 7 yds to the PUR 32Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
92.9%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the PUR 32Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-8
93.0%
Ryan Browne pass intercepted Christian Gray return for 8 yds to the PUR 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:0394% → 96%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
93.5%
Jadarian Price run for 12 yds to the PUR 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
93.3%
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the PUR 20Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
93.5%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the PUR 15Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
93.3%
Jadarian Price run for 6 yds to the PUR 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.5%
Jadarian Price run for 9 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:405% → 7%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.7%
Michael Jackson III run for 1 yd to the PUR 26Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
94.8%
Ryan Browne run for 11 yds to the PUR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the PUR 38Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
94.6%
Ryan Browne run for 5 yds to the PUR 43Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+19
94.5%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 19 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
94.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to George Burhenn for 14 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
93.7%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro TuggleSimilar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
93.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 11 yds to the ND 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
93.7%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 5 yds to the ND 8Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
93.4%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Christian EarlsSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
93.8%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Rico WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
93.0%
Spencer Porath 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
95.2%
CJ Carr sacked by Myles Slusher for a loss of 6 yards to the ND 19 CJ Carr fumbled, recovered by PUR CJ Nunnally IV , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11FG
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:218% → 7%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
92.4%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the ND 19Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
92.4%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 5 yds to the ND 14Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-4
92.6%
Ryan Browne sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 18Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
93.0%
Spencer Porath 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 13 yds to the PUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.1%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Corey Smith for 6 yds to the PUR 44Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+19
99.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 19 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Ryan Browne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
99.0%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Corey Smith for 13 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 24 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0099% → 97%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 14 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
98.9%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jaden GreathouseSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+12
98.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
97.2%
J. Love run for 46 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
98.0%
C. Carr takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:414% → 4%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
95.7%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 13 yds to the PUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
95.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 5 yds to the PUR 43Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
95.4%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the PUR 43Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
95.6%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse WatsonSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
95.8%
Jack McCallister punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
95.8%
Jack McCallister punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:0697% → 99%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
96.9%
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+15
97.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 15 yds to the PUR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
99.2%
C. Carr pass to J. Faison for 48 yds for a TD (E. Schmidt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 4 yds to the PUR 29Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
99.2%
Ryan Browne sacked by Bryce Young for a loss of 9 yards to the PUR 20Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.2%
Jack McCallister punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 30Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.2%
Jack McCallister punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:5499% → 100%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+9
99.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.4%
CJ Carr pass complete to Micah Gilbert for 11 yds to the PUR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
99.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 11 yds to the PUR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
99.4%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Love,Jeremiyah rush left for 9 yards gain to the Purdue23 (Bradford,Smiley) PENALTY IRISH Holding (Washington,Ty) 10 yards from Purdue32 to Purdue42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+8
99.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 8 yds to the PUR 34Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+21
99.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 21 yds to the PUR 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
99.6%
Jadarian Price run for 12 yds to the PUR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
J. Price run for 1 yd for a TD (E. Schmidt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 8 yds to the PUR 33Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the PUR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.8%
Antonio Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 36Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-10
99.8%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan rush left for 1 yard gain to the Purdue37 (Faraimo,Madden), out of bounds PENALTY Purdue Holding (Tanona,Joey) 10 yards from Purdue36 to Purdue26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 21
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Antonio HarrisSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+5
99.8%
Antonio Harris run for 5 yds to the PUR 31Similar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Jack McCallister punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ND 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
99.8%
Kenny Minchey pass complete to KK Smith for 11 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
Aneyas Williams run for 2 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.8%
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Ty Washington for 3 yds to the PUR 19Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 3 yds to the PUR 16Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+3
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 3 yds to the PUR 13Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+31
99.9%
Erik Schmidt 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 2 yards to the PUR 18Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 1 yd to the PUR 19Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse WatsonSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Jack McCallister punt for 34 yds , Will Pauling returns for no gain to the ND 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Ty Washington for 2 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Nolan James Jr. run for 2 yds to the PUR 49Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Nolan James Jr. run for 5 yds to the PUR 44Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Nolan James Jr. run for no gain to the PUR 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Malachi Singleton run for 4 yds to the PUR 48Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Malachi Singleton run for 1 yd to the PUR 49Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+12
99.9%
Malachi Singleton run for 12 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Malachi Singleton pass intercepted Dallas Golden return for no gain to the ND 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Nolan James Jr. run for 4 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 2 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+14
99.9%
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Ty Washington for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Kenny Minchey pass incomplete to Elijah BurressSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
50
0
99.9%
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Jack Larsen for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 10
50
+6
99.9%
Kenny Minchey run for 6 yds to the PUR 44Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Logan Saldate for 2 yds to the PUR 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
100.0%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Jesse Watson for 4 yds to the PUR 46Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+15
100.0%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Singleton,Malachi pass incomplete short middle to Tuggle,Nitro thrown to IRISH41 broken up by Gray,Christian PENALTY IRISH UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Faraimo,Madden) 15 yards from Purdue46 to IRISH39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
100.0%
Malachi Singleton run for 5 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-5
99.9%
PENALTY Purdue False Start (St. John,Jalen) 5 yards from IRISH34 to IRISH39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
100.0%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Antonio Harris for 11 yds to the ND 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.9%
Malachi Singleton run for 4 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Jesse Watson for 24 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
99.9%
K. Minchey takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-1
99.9%
K. Minchey takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 17
-1
99.9%
K. Minchey takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:00
Jadarian Price run for 21 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 6:33
Jadarian Price run for 9 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q3 9:52
C. Carr pass to J. Faison for 48 yds for a TD (E. Schmidt KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com