PUR
Purdue 30 at Notre Dame 56
ND2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey play
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PUR · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · -14 yds
Q1 15:00
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 64 yds
93.7%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the PUR 36
92.8%
-1.0
Q1 14:23
Purdue Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the PUR 21
92.4%
-0.4
Q1 13:59
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse Watson
92.5%
+0.1
Q1 13:49
Jack McCallister punt for 58 yds , Jordan Faison returns for 13 yds to the ND 34
92.5%
0.0
ND · Drive 2TD · 1 play · 66 yds
Q1 13:40
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 66 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)
96.4%
+3.9
PUR · Drive 3TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q1 13:40
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.4%
0.0
Q1 13:40
Timeout Purdue, clock 13:40
95.9%
-0.5
Q1 13:31
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 23 yds to the PUR 48 for a 1ST down
96.1%
+0.3
Q1 13:00
Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the ND 46
95.8%
-0.3
Q1 12:29
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Arhmad Branch
95.7%
-0.1
Q1 12:17
Ryan Browne pass complete to George Burhenn for 6 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down
95.7%
-0.1
Q1 11:34
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 31 yds to the ND 9 for a 1ST down
96.2%
+0.5
Q1 11:22
PENALTY Purdue False Start (Tanona,Joey) 5 yards from IRISH09 to IRISH14. NO PLAY.
96.2%
0.0
Q1 10:58
Devin Mockobee pass complete to Ryan Browne for 14 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
92.6%
-3.5
ND · Drive 4TD · 12 plays · 56 yds
Q1 10:51
Seth Turner kickoff for 63 yds , Jadarian Price return for 42 yds to the ND 44
93.3%
+0.7
Q1 10:45
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 41
94.6%
+1.3
Q1 10:12
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the PUR 49
94.6%
0.0
Q1 9:34
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the PUR 44 for a 1ST down
94.7%
+0.1
Q1 8:56
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 17 yds to the PUR 27 for a 1ST down
94.7%
-0.1
Q1 8:23
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan Faison
94.8%
+0.1
Q1 8:17
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the PUR 23
94.8%
0.0
Q1 7:38
Jeremiyah Love run for 13 yds to the PUR 10 for a 1ST down
94.7%
-0.1
Q1 7:00
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the PUR 1
94.7%
-0.1
Q1 6:32
Timeout Purdue, clock 06:32
94.7%
0.0
Q1 6:24
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the PUR 1
93.6%
-1.0
Q1 5:54
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)
96.3%
+2.7
PUR · Drive 5FG · 15 plays · 45 yds
Q1 5:54
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.2%
-0.1
Q1 5:47
Antonio Harris run for 1 yd to the PUR 26
95.9%
-0.3
Q1 5:09
Ryan Browne pass complete to Antonio Harris for 9 yds to the PUR 35 for a 1ST down
95.9%
0.0
Q1 4:49
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro Tuggle
95.9%
0.0
Q1 4:41
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan pass complete short middle to Horton,EJ caught at Purdue47, for 12 yards to the Purdue47 (Johnson,Tae) PENALTY Purdue Holding (Tanona,Joey) 10 yards from Purdue35 to Purdue25. NO PLAY.
95.9%
0.0
Q1 3:59
Ryan Browne run for 5 yds to the PUR 30 Ryan Browne fumbled, recovered by PUR Malachi Thomas
95.9%
0.0
Q1 3:37
Ryan Browne run for 10 yds to the PUR 40
95.9%
0.0
Q1 3:00
Jack McCallister run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
95.8%
0.0
Q1 2:10
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 49
95.5%
-0.3
Q1 1:42
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the PUR 49
95.5%
0.0
Q1 1:00
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 20 yds to the ND 31 for a 1ST down
95.5%
0.0
Q1 0:37
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the ND 30
95.3%
-0.2
Q1 0:00
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro Tuggle
95.2%
-0.1
Q2 14:50
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to EJ Horton Jr.
95.2%
0.0
Q2 14:50
Spencer Porath 48 yd FG GOOD
92.7%
-2.5
ND · Drive 6TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q2 14:50
Seth Turner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
93.3%
+0.6
Q2 14:45
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 28
94.9%
+1.6
Q2 14:37
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 14:37
95.4%
+0.5
Q2 14:26
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 11 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST down
95.2%
-0.2
Q2 13:55
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 45
95.3%
+0.1
Q2 13:08
CJ Carr run for 6 yds to the PUR 49 for a 1ST down
95.3%
0.0
Q2 12:34
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the PUR 45
95.4%
+0.1
Q2 12:07
PENALTY IRISH False Start (Raridon,Eli) 5 yards from Purdue45 to Purdue50. NO PLAY.
95.4%
0.0
Q2 11:37
Jeremiyah Love run for 17 yds to the PUR 33 for a 1ST down
95.3%
-0.1
Q2 11:11
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the PUR 25
95.4%
+0.1
Q2 10:38
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the PUR 21 for a 1ST down
95.3%
-0.1
Q2 10:00
Jadarian Price run for 21 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)
98.4%
+3.2
PUR · Drive 7INT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q2 10:00
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.4%
0.0
Q2 9:47
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 7 yds to the PUR 32
97.5%
-0.9
Q2 9:25
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the PUR 32
97.5%
0.0
Q2 8:49
Ryan Browne pass intercepted Christian Gray return for 8 yds to the PUR 36
97.5%
0.0
ND · Drive 8TD · 5 plays · 36 yds
Q2 8:36
Jadarian Price run for 12 yds to the PUR 24 for a 1ST down
98.4%
+0.9
Q2 8:12
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the PUR 20
98.3%
-0.1
Q2 7:41
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the PUR 15
98.4%
+0.1
Q2 7:07
Jadarian Price run for 6 yds to the PUR 9 for a 1ST down
98.4%
0.0
Q2 6:33
Jadarian Price run for 9 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)
99.5%
+1.1
PUR · Drive 9FG · 14 plays · 67 yds
Q2 6:33
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.5%
0.0
Q2 6:26
Michael Jackson III run for 1 yd to the PUR 26
98.6%
-0.9
Q2 5:52
Ryan Browne run for 11 yds to the PUR 37 for a 1ST down
98.6%
0.0
Q2 5:22
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the PUR 38
98.6%
0.0
Q2 4:49
Ryan Browne run for 5 yds to the PUR 43
98.6%
0.0
Q2 4:15
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 19 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST down
98.6%
0.0
Q2 3:47
Ryan Browne pass complete to George Burhenn for 14 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST down
98.6%
-0.1
Q2 3:10
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Nitro Tuggle
98.5%
-0.1
Q2 2:59
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 11 yds to the ND 13 for a 1ST down
98.5%
0.0
Q2 2:28
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 5 yds to the ND 8
98.5%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 02:00
98.5%
0.0
Q2 1:54
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Christian Earls
98.5%
0.0
Q2 1:49
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Rico Walker
98.5%
0.0
Q2 1:46
Spencer Porath 26 yd FG GOOD
98.0%
-0.5
ND · Drive 10FUMBLE · 2 plays · -6 yds
Q2 1:46
Seth Turner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.1%
+0.1
Q2 1:40
CJ Carr sacked by Myles Slusher for a loss of 6 yards to the ND 19 CJ Carr fumbled, recovered by PUR CJ Nunnally IV , return for 0 yards
99.1%
+1.0
PUR · Drive 11FG · 7 plays · 1 yds
Q2 1:34
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the ND 19
97.9%
-1.1
Q2 1:31
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:31
97.9%
0.0
Q2 1:23
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:23
97.9%
0.0
Q2 1:21
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 5 yds to the ND 14
97.9%
0.0
Q2 1:16
Ryan Browne sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 18
97.9%
0.0
Q2 1:16
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:16
98.0%
0.0
Q2 1:13
Spencer Porath 35 yd FG GOOD
97.3%
-0.7
PUR · Drive 12TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q2 1:00
S. Turner kick for 65 yds,J. Price return for 100 yds for a TD (E. Schmidt KICK)
98.7%
+1.4
Q2 1:00
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
+1.2
Q2 0:53
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 13 yds to the PUR 38 for a 1ST down
99.5%
-0.3
Q2 0:34
Ryan Browne pass complete to Corey Smith for 6 yds to the PUR 44
99.6%
+0.1
Q2 0:19
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 19 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:18
Ryan Browne pass incomplete
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:13
Ryan Browne pass complete to Corey Smith for 13 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST down
98.5%
-1.1
Q2 0:07
Ryan Browne pass complete to Nitro Tuggle for 24 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
96.9%
-1.6
ND · Drive 13TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q2 0:02
Seth Turner kickoff for 32 yds , Joshua Burnham return for 6 yds to the ND 39
97.1%
+0.2
Q3 15:00
Seth Turner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.8%
-1.5
Q3 14:54
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 14 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST down
97.6%
+0.8
Q3 14:21
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 42
97.7%
0.0
Q3 13:45
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jaden Greathouse
97.7%
0.0
Q3 13:33
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST down
97.6%
0.0
Q3 12:54
J. Love run for 46 yds for a TD
99.7%
0.0
ND · Drive 14END OF HALF · 1 play · -1 yds
Q2 0:00
C. Carr takes a knee
98.3%
+1.2
PUR · Drive 15PUNT · 7 plays · 18 yds
Q3 12:53
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.7%
+2.0
Q3 12:44
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 13 yds to the PUR 38 for a 1ST down
98.7%
-1.0
Q3 12:06
Devin Mockobee run for 5 yds to the PUR 43
98.7%
0.0
Q3 11:43
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the PUR 43
98.7%
0.0
Q3 11:09
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse Watson
98.7%
0.0
Q3 11:03
Jack McCallister punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 18 for a 1ST down
98.8%
+0.1
Q3 11:03
Jack McCallister punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 33 for a 1ST down
98.8%
0.0
ND · Drive 16TD · 4 plays · 67 yds
Q3 11:03
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 11:03
99.7%
+0.9
Q3 10:58
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the ND 37
99.7%
0.0
Q3 10:30
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 15 yds to the PUR 48 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q3 9:52
C. Carr pass to J. Faison for 48 yds for a TD (E. Schmidt KICK)
99.9%
+0.2
PUR · Drive 17PUNT · 6 plays · -5 yds
Q3 9:52
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q3 9:39
Ryan Browne pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 4 yds to the PUR 29
99.6%
-0.3
Q3 9:24
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Michael Jackson III
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:18
Ryan Browne sacked by Bryce Young for a loss of 9 yards to the PUR 20
99.6%
0.0
Q3 8:47
Jack McCallister punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 30
99.6%
0.0
Q3 8:47
Jack McCallister punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 30
99.6%
0.0
ND · Drive 18TD · 9 plays · 70 yds
Q3 8:40
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the ND 37
99.9%
+0.3
Q3 8:01
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 7:14
CJ Carr pass complete to Micah Gilbert for 11 yds to the PUR 43 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 6:53
Jeremiyah Love run for 11 yds to the PUR 32 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 6:15
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Love,Jeremiyah rush left for 9 yards gain to the Purdue23 (Bradford,Smiley) PENALTY IRISH Holding (Washington,Ty) 10 yards from Purdue32 to Purdue42. NO PLAY.
99.9%
0.0
Q3 5:43
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 8 yds to the PUR 34
99.9%
0.0
Q3 5:01
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 21 yds to the PUR 13 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 4:15
Jadarian Price run for 12 yds to the PUR 1 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 3:46
J. Price run for 1 yd for a TD (E. Schmidt KICK)
99.9%
0.0
PUR · Drive 19PUNT · 8 plays · 6 yds
Q3 3:46
Erik Schmidt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q3 3:33
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 8 yds to the PUR 33
99.7%
-0.2
Q3 3:11
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the PUR 37 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q3 2:28
Antonio Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 36
99.7%
0.0
Q3 1:58
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Browne,Ryan rush left for 1 yard gain to the Purdue37 (Faraimo,Madden), out of bounds PENALTY Purdue Holding (Tanona,Joey) 10 yards from Purdue36 to Purdue26. NO PLAY.
99.7%
0.0
Q3 1:37
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Antonio Harris
99.7%
0.0
Q3 1:30
Antonio Harris run for 5 yds to the PUR 31
99.7%
0.0
Q3 0:59
Jack McCallister punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ND 24
99.7%
0.0
ND · Drive 20MISSED FG · 7 plays · 63 yds
Q3 0:59
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 00:59
99.9%
+0.2
Q3 0:41
Kenny Minchey pass complete to KK Smith for 11 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Aneyas Williams run for 2 yds to the ND 37
99.9%
0.0
Q4 14:17
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Ty Washington for 3 yds to the PUR 19
99.9%
0.0
Q4 13:41
Aneyas Williams run for 3 yds to the PUR 16
99.9%
0.0
Q4 12:57
Aneyas Williams run for 3 yds to the PUR 13
99.9%
0.0
Q4 12:19
Erik Schmidt 31 yd FG MISSED
99.9%
0.0
PUR · Drive 21PUNT · 5 plays · -1 yds
Q4 12:19
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 12:19
99.8%
-0.2
Q4 12:12
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 2 yards to the PUR 18
99.8%
0.0
Q4 11:39
Ryan Browne pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 1 yd to the PUR 19
99.8%
0.0
Q4 11:17
Ryan Browne pass incomplete to Jesse Watson
99.8%
0.0
Q4 11:10
Jack McCallister punt for 34 yds , Will Pauling returns for no gain to the ND 47
99.8%
0.0
ND · Drive 22DOWNS · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q4 11:10
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 11:10
99.9%
+0.2
Q4 10:57
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Ty Washington for 2 yds to the ND 49
99.9%
0.0
Q4 10:32
Nolan James Jr. run for 2 yds to the PUR 49
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:58
Nolan James Jr. run for 5 yds to the PUR 44
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:19
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 09:19
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:14
Nolan James Jr. run for no gain to the PUR 44
99.9%
0.0
PUR · Drive 23INT · 4 plays · 17 yds
Q4 9:06
Malachi Singleton run for 4 yds to the PUR 48
99.7%
-0.2
Q4 8:37
Malachi Singleton run for 1 yd to the PUR 49
99.7%
0.0
Q4 7:55
Malachi Singleton run for 12 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 7:26
Malachi Singleton pass intercepted Dallas Golden return for no gain to the ND 30
99.7%
0.0
ND · Drive 24DOWNS · 7 plays · 28 yds
Q4 7:20
Nolan James Jr. run for 4 yds to the ND 34
99.9%
+0.2
Q4 6:43
Aneyas Williams run for 2 yds to the ND 36
99.9%
0.0
Q4 6:03
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Ty Washington for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 5:31
Kenny Minchey pass incomplete to Elijah Burress
99.9%
0.0
Q4 5:02
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Jack Larsen for no gain to the 50 yard line
99.9%
0.0
Q4 4:30
Kenny Minchey run for 6 yds to the PUR 44
99.9%
0.0
Q4 3:58
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Logan Saldate for 2 yds to the PUR 42
99.9%
0.0
PUR · Drive 25TD · 8 plays · 58 yds
Q4 3:52
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Jesse Watson for 4 yds to the PUR 46
99.8%
-0.2
Q4 3:27
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Singleton,Malachi pass incomplete short middle to Tuggle,Nitro thrown to IRISH41 broken up by Gray,Christian PENALTY IRISH UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Faraimo,Madden) 15 yards from Purdue46 to IRISH39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.8%
0.0
Q4 3:19
Malachi Singleton run for 5 yds to the ND 34
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:59
PENALTY Purdue False Start (St. John,Jalen) 5 yards from IRISH34 to IRISH39. NO PLAY.
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:40
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Antonio Harris for 11 yds to the ND 28 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:20
Malachi Singleton run for 4 yds to the ND 24
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 02:00
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:53
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Jesse Watson for 24 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
99.7%
0.0
ND · Drive 26END OF GAME · 4 plays · -3 yds
Q4 1:49
Seth Turner kickoff for 65 yds , Nolan James Jr. return for 19 yds to the ND 19
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:40
K. Minchey takes a knee
99.9%
+0.2
Q4 0:51
K. Minchey takes a knee
99.9%
0.0
Q4 0:00
K. Minchey takes a knee
99.9%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 13:40
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 66 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q1 10:58
Devin Mockobee pass complete to Ryan Browne for 14 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q2 10:00
Jadarian Price run for 21 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)
+3.2