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MSU

Michigan State 31 at USC 45

USC
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.1USC 87.9%Ryon Sayeri 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 9:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:03 · Ryon Sayeri 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+36.4Home team on offense+0.6Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:37: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 7 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK) — USC win probability +4.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:22: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 10 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK) — USC win probability +4.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:58: Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK) — MSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:40: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 1 yd for a TD (Martin Connington KICK) — MSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:20: Makai Lemon run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK) — USC win probability +6.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:03USC 4th & 8 at MSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:36MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:22MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:05USC 4th & 4 at MSU 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:26MSU 4th & 11 at USC 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:11MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:01USC 4th & 3 at MSU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−2.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:30MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:27MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:38USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:36USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:37USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:22USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:58MSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:40MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:20USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:57USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:39MSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:4589% → 88%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
89.2%
Waymond Jordan run for 2 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
89.0%
Waymond Jordan run for 7 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
88.8%
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
88.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.7%
Eli Sanders run for no gain to the USC 42Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
88.5%
Eli Sanders run for 18 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+20
88.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Waymond Jordan for 20 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Block Below Waist (Nikai Martinez) to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
88.3%
PENALTY USC Delay Of Game 6 yards from MSU09 to MSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+11
88.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Eli Sanders for 11 yds to the MSU 4Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
88.1%
Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd to the MSU 3Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
87.9%
(09:25) PENALTY USC False Start (O'Connor,Kilian) 5 yards from MSU03 to MSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jaden RichardsonSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
87.9%
Ryon Sayeri 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3012% → 15%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.8%
Brandon Tullis run for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
87.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 6 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
87.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
87.2%
(06:56) PENALTY MSU False Start (Ramil,Stanton) 5 yards from MSU35 to MSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+9
87.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 9 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+19
86.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 19 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
85.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 42 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:3685% → 86%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
85.3%
Eli Sanders run for 12 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
85.4%
Eli Sanders run for 16 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
85.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 20 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
85.5%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
85.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Eli Sanders for 6 yds to the MSU 15Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
86.3%
Jayden Maiava run for 15 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:4914% → 15%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
85.9%
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 22Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+8
85.7%
Brandon Tullis run for 8 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+3
85.5%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the MSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
85.1%
(00:38) Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short left to Kelly,Omari thrown to MSU50 PENALTY USC Holding (Williams,Marcelles) 10 yards from MSU33 to MSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
84.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 2 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-1
84.4%
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 44Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-6
84.6%
Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MSU 38Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
85.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 1:4984% → 88%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+27
84.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 27 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
84.3%
Waymond Jordan run for 5 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
84.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to DJ JordanSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
84.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 6 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
87.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 40 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0113% → 12%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
87.1%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 24Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+8
87.7%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
88.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:0987% → 88%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+35
87.3%
Waymond Jordan run for 35 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
88.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jay FairSimilar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
87.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 6 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
87.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Walker LyonsSimilar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+3
87.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 3 yds to the MSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:2713% → 14%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
87.2%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+15
86.7%
Makhi Frazier run for 15 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
86.3%
Omari Kelly pass complete to Michael Masunas for 13 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
86.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 11 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.0%
Omari Kelly pass incomplete to Aidan ChilesSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
86.0%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 11Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
86.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q2 4:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
85.9%
Martin Connington 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 3:3586% → 92%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
86.3%
Eli Sanders run for no gain to the USC 12Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
86.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+11
85.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for 11 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
86.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Waymond Jordan for 5 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
86.1%
Jayden Maiava run for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+17
85.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 17 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
86.5%
Waymond Jordan run for 9 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+20
86.6%
Waymond Jordan run for 20 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
86.8%
Eli Sanders run for 15 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
86.8%
Waymond Jordan run for 2 yds to the MSU 7Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 7 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:238% → 10%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.7%
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
91.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+33
91.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 33 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
90.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+56
90.2%
Martin Connington 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:399% → 9%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 2 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
90.9%
Aidan Chiles run for no gain to the MSU 23Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
91.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+23
91.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 43 , Makai Lemon returns for 23 yds to the USC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:3892% → 97%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
92.0%
Waymond Jordan run for 40 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
92.0%
Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
92.2%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the MSU 10Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
97.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 10 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
16 plays · 87 yds · 5:184% → 12%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
96.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 12 yds to the MSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.7%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
96.8%
(09:54) Eckley,Ryan punt 52 yards to the USC20 Lemon,Makai return 13 yards to the USC33 (Snow,Darius) PENALTY USC Running Into The Kicker (Robinson,Ta'Mere) 5 yards from MSU28 to MSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
96.8%
(09:42) Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short right to McCray,Chrishon thrown to MSU44 PENALTY USC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MSU33 to MSU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
96.7%
(09:32) Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete deep left to Marsh,Nick thrown to USC40 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Nicholson,DeCarlos) 15 yards from MSU38 to USC47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
96.7%
Makhi Frazier run for 7 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+6
96.7%
Makhi Frazier run for 6 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
96.6%
Makhi Frazier run for 11 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
96.5%
Makhi Frazier run for 12 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
96.7%
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+5
96.7%
(06:06) Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short right to Velling,Jack thrown to USC06 QB hurried by Shelby,Braylan PENALTY USC Illegal Use Of Hands (Silver,Keeshawn) 5 yards from USC09 to USC04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.9%
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to DJ Jordan for 7 yds DJ Jordan fumbled, recovered by MSU Grady KellySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 5:0412% → 21%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
88.3%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the USC 31Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+14
88.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
88.3%
(04:39) Frazier,Makhi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC16 (Stephens II,Desman; Abasiri,Jide) PENALTY USC Offside (Lucas,Anthony) 5 yards from USC17 to USC12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+1
89.0%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 1 yd to the USC 11Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
89.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
89.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
89.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.3%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 1 yd for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:1387% → 97%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.0%
Waymond Jordan run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.3%
Makai Lemon run for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
87.3%
Jayden Maiava run for 13 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
89.0%
Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
89.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 10 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
89.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 4 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
89.8%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
89.3%
Eli Sanders run for no gain to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+10
88.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 10 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
90.4%
Waymond Jordan run for 11 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
90.3%
Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the MSU 10Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
90.3%
Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd to the MSU 9Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+5
89.8%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Richardson,Jaden thrown to MSU06 PENALTY MSU Face Mask (Willie,Ade) 5 yards from MSU09 to MSU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.1%
Makai Lemon run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:454% → 4%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.8%
Brandon Tullis run for 3 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
95.6%
Brandon Tullis run for 1 yd to the MSU 29Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
96.0%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Braylan Shelby for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 28Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1598% → 100%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
97.6%
Eli Sanders run for 9 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+3
97.6%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
97.9%
Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
98.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 2 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+5
98.2%
Waymond Jordan run for 5 yds to the MSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
98.5%
Waymond Jordan run for 5 yds to the MSU 1Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:110% → 1%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
98.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 75 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Anthony Lucas) to the USC 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:40
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 1 yd for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 5:58
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q4 8:20
Makai Lemon run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com