MSU
Michigan State 31 at USC 45
USC2025 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2025 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
USC · Drive 1FG · 15 plays · 73 yds
Q1 15:00
Martin Connington kickoff for 63 yds , Makai Lemon return for 17 yds to the USC 19
92.9%
0.0
Q1 14:48
Waymond Jordan run for 2 yds to the USC 21
93.8%
+0.8
Q1 14:12
Waymond Jordan run for 7 yds to the USC 28
93.7%
-0.1
Q1 13:37
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST down
93.7%
0.0
Q1 12:50
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down
93.7%
0.0
Q1 12:42
Eli Sanders run for no gain to the USC 42
93.9%
+0.2
Q1 12:01
Eli Sanders run for 18 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST down
93.9%
0.0
Q1 11:37
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete
94.3%
+0.4
Q1 11:26
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Waymond Jordan for 20 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Block Below Waist (Nikai Martinez) to the MSU 9 for a 1ST down
94.3%
0.0
Q1 10:56
PENALTY USC Delay Of Game 6 yards from MSU09 to MSU15. NO PLAY.
93.9%
-0.4
Q1 10:29
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Eli Sanders for 11 yds to the MSU 4
93.9%
0.0
Q1 9:47
Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd to the MSU 3
93.9%
0.0
Q1 9:22
(09:25) PENALTY USC False Start (O'Connor,Kilian) 5 yards from MSU03 to MSU08. NO PLAY.
93.8%
0.0
Q1 9:06
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jaden Richardson
93.8%
0.0
Q1 9:03
Ryon Sayeri 25 yd FG GOOD
95.4%
+1.5
MSU · Drive 2TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q1 9:03
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.2%
-0.1
Q1 8:57
Brandon Tullis run for 2 yds to the MSU 27
94.9%
-0.3
Q1 8:12
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 6 yds to the MSU 33
94.9%
0.0
Q1 7:35
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down
94.9%
0.0
Q1 6:56
(06:56) PENALTY MSU False Start (Ramil,Stanton) 5 yards from MSU35 to MSU30. NO PLAY.
95.2%
+0.3
Q1 6:36
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 9 yds to the MSU 39
95.2%
0.0
Q1 6:03
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 19 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down
94.0%
-1.2
Q1 5:27
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 42 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
88.7%
-5.3
USC · Drive 3TD · 7 plays · 72 yds
Q1 5:20
Martin Connington kickoff for 61 yds , Makai Lemon return for 24 yds to the USC 28
89.5%
+0.8
Q1 5:14
Eli Sanders run for 12 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down
91.2%
+1.7
Q1 4:33
Eli Sanders run for 16 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST down
91.4%
+0.2
Q1 4:04
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 20 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST down
91.8%
+0.4
Q1 3:30
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the MSU 21
92.0%
+0.2
Q1 3:04
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Eli Sanders for 6 yds to the MSU 15
92.0%
0.0
Q1 2:38
Jayden Maiava run for 15 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
94.9%
+2.9
MSU · Drive 4PUNT · 9 plays · 15 yds
Q1 2:30
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 62 yds , Chrishon McCray return for 20 yds to the MSU 23
94.6%
-0.3
Q1 2:25
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 22
94.0%
-0.6
Q1 1:48
Brandon Tullis run for 8 yds to the MSU 30
93.8%
-0.2
Q1 1:10
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the MSU 33 for a 1ST down
93.8%
0.0
Q1 0:32
(00:38) Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short left to Kelly,Omari thrown to MSU50 PENALTY USC Holding (Williams,Marcelles) 10 yards from MSU33 to MSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
93.7%
-0.1
Q1 0:00
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 2 yds to the MSU 45
93.4%
-0.3
Q2 14:55
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 44
93.3%
-0.1
Q2 14:10
Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MSU 38
93.2%
0.0
Q2 13:36
Ryan Eckley punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 7
93.5%
+0.3
USC · Drive 5TD · 5 plays · 93 yds
Q2 13:25
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 27 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST down
94.2%
+0.7
Q2 12:51
Waymond Jordan run for 5 yds to the USC 39
94.1%
-0.1
Q2 12:14
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to DJ Jordan
94.3%
+0.1
Q2 11:50
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 6 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST down
94.2%
-0.1
Q2 11:36
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 40 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
98.4%
+4.3
MSU · Drive 6PUNT · 6 plays · 7 yds
Q2 11:36
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.4%
0.0
Q2 11:23
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 2 yds to the MSU 27
96.9%
-1.5
Q2 10:42
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 24
96.9%
0.0
Q2 9:58
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the MSU 32
96.9%
0.0
Q2 9:30
Timeout Michigan State, clock 09:30
96.8%
-0.1
Q2 9:22
Ryan Eckley punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Makai Lemon at the USC 11
96.8%
0.0
USC · Drive 7DOWNS · 5 plays · 44 yds
Q2 9:14
Waymond Jordan run for 35 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down
98.5%
+1.6
Q2 8:52
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jay Fair
98.5%
0.0
Q2 8:34
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 6 yds to the MSU 48
98.5%
0.0
Q2 8:13
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Walker Lyons
98.6%
+0.1
Q2 8:05
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 3 yds to the MSU 45
98.5%
0.0
MSU · Drive 8FG · 9 plays · 44 yds
Q2 7:53
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the USC 47
97.2%
-1.3
Q2 7:22
Makhi Frazier run for 15 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down
97.2%
-0.1
Q2 6:32
Omari Kelly pass complete to Michael Masunas for 13 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST down
96.9%
-0.2
Q2 5:53
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 11 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST down
96.9%
0.0
Q2 5:24
Omari Kelly pass incomplete to Aidan Chiles
96.9%
0.0
Q2 5:18
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 11
96.9%
0.0
Q2 4:29
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray
96.9%
0.0
Q2 4:26
Martin Connington 29 yd FG GOOD
95.8%
-1.1
Q2 4:19
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds , Makai Lemon return for 23 yds to the USC 42 USC Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (23 Yards) to the USC 12
97.2%
+1.4
USC · Drive 9TD · 13 plays · 88 yds
Q2 4:12
Eli Sanders run for no gain to the USC 12
96.3%
-0.9
Q2 3:38
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Lake McRee
96.3%
0.0
Q2 3:25
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for 11 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST down
96.3%
0.0
Q2 2:49
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Waymond Jordan for 5 yds to the USC 28
96.0%
-0.3
Q2 2:12
Jayden Maiava run for 2 yds to the USC 30
96.0%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout USC, clock 02:00
95.9%
-0.1
Q2 1:54
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 17 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST down
95.9%
0.0
Q2 1:47
Waymond Jordan run for 9 yds to the MSU 44
96.1%
+0.2
Q2 1:21
Waymond Jordan run for 20 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST down
96.1%
0.0
Q2 1:00
Eli Sanders run for 15 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST down
96.1%
0.0
Q2 0:42
Waymond Jordan run for 2 yds to the MSU 7
96.1%
0.0
Q2 0:42
Timeout Michigan State, clock 00:42
96.1%
0.0
Q2 0:37
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Tanook Hines for 7 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
99.5%
+3.4
MSU · Drive 10MISSED FG · 8 plays · 37 yds
Q2 0:37
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds
99.5%
0.0
Q2 0:24
Timeout Michigan State, clock 00:24
98.8%
-0.7
Q2 0:23
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds to the MSU 29
98.8%
0.0
Q2 0:18
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
98.8%
0.0
Q2 0:11
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 33 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST down
98.8%
0.0
Q2 0:03
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete
98.7%
0.0
Q2 0:03
Timeout USC, clock 00:03
98.7%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Martin Connington 56 yd FG MISSED
98.7%
0.0
MSU · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q3 15:00
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds
99.5%
+0.7
Q3 14:50
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 2 yds to the MSU 23
98.8%
-0.6
Q3 14:07
Aidan Chiles run for no gain to the MSU 23
98.8%
0.0
Q3 13:23
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete
98.8%
0.0
Q3 13:11
Ryan Eckley punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 43 , Makai Lemon returns for 23 yds to the USC 43
98.8%
0.0
USC · Drive 12TD · 5 plays · 57 yds
Q3 13:00
Waymond Jordan run for 40 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST down
99.5%
+0.7
Q3 12:30
Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the MSU 13
99.5%
0.0
Q3 11:55
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the MSU 10
99.5%
0.0
Q3 11:22
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 10 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
99.7%
+0.2
Q3 11:22
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Michigan State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Rakeem Johnson)
99.5%
-0.2
MSU · Drive 13TD · 16 plays · 87 yds
Q3 11:16
Aidan Chiles run for 12 yds to the MSU 25 for a 1ST down
99.6%
+0.1
Q3 10:38
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete
99.6%
0.0
Q3 10:32
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the MSU 28
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:54
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Chrishon McCray
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:42
(09:54) Eckley,Ryan punt 52 yards to the USC20 Lemon,Makai return 13 yards to the USC33 (Snow,Darius) PENALTY USC Running Into The Kicker (Robinson,Ta'Mere) 5 yards from MSU28 to MSU33. NO PLAY.
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:36
(09:42) Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short right to McCray,Chrishon thrown to MSU44 PENALTY USC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MSU33 to MSU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:32
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:28
(09:32) Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete deep left to Marsh,Nick thrown to USC40 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Nicholson,DeCarlos) 15 yards from MSU38 to USC47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:22
Makhi Frazier run for 7 yds to the USC 40
99.6%
0.0
Q3 8:40
Makhi Frazier run for 6 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 8:02
Makhi Frazier run for 11 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 7:21
Makhi Frazier run for 12 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 6:42
Makhi Frazier run for 2 yds to the USC 9
99.6%
0.0
Q3 6:02
(06:06) Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short right to Velling,Jack thrown to USC06 QB hurried by Shelby,Braylan PENALTY USC Illegal Use Of Hands (Silver,Keeshawn) 5 yards from USC09 to USC04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.6%
0.0
Q3 6:02
Timeout USC, clock 06:02
99.6%
0.0
Q3 5:58
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
98.7%
-0.9
USC · Drive 14FUMBLE · 2 plays · 7 yds
Q3 5:58
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.8%
+0.1
Q3 5:50
Jayden Maiava pass complete to DJ Jordan for 7 yds DJ Jordan fumbled, recovered by MSU Grady Kelly
99.5%
+0.7
MSU · Drive 15TD · 9 plays · 32 yds
Q3 5:44
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the USC 31
98.7%
-0.8
Q3 5:08
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST down
98.7%
0.0
Q3 4:32
(04:39) Frazier,Makhi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC16 (Stephens II,Desman; Abasiri,Jide) PENALTY USC Offside (Lucas,Anthony) 5 yards from USC17 to USC12. NO PLAY.
98.6%
-0.1
Q3 4:05
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 1 yd to the USC 11
98.6%
0.0
Q3 3:26
Makhi Frazier run for 3 yds to the USC 8
98.7%
+0.1
Q3 2:47
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST down
98.7%
0.0
Q3 1:59
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the USC 2
98.7%
0.0
Q3 1:20
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the USC 1
98.7%
0.0
Q3 0:40
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 1 yd for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
95.1%
-3.5
USC · Drive 16TD · 16 plays · 75 yds
Q3 0:40
Martin Connington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.6%
+0.4
Q3 0:33
Waymond Jordan run for no gain to the USC 25
96.5%
+0.9
Q3 0:00
Makai Lemon run for 7 yds to the USC 32
96.8%
+0.3
Q4 14:47
Jayden Maiava run for 13 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST down
96.7%
0.0
Q4 14:20
Waymond Jordan run for 4 yds to the USC 49
96.8%
0.0
Q4 13:29
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 10 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST down
96.7%
0.0
Q4 12:48
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 4 yds to the MSU 37
96.8%
+0.1
Q4 12:11
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the MSU 34
96.9%
+0.1
Q4 11:49
Eli Sanders run for no gain to the MSU 34
96.8%
0.0
Q4 11:01
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 10 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST down
96.8%
0.0
Q4 10:26
Waymond Jordan run for 11 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST down
96.8%
0.0
Q4 9:45
Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the MSU 10
96.7%
-0.1
Q4 9:06
Waymond Jordan run for 1 yd to the MSU 9
96.7%
0.0
Q4 8:25
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Richardson,Jaden thrown to MSU06 PENALTY MSU Face Mask (Willie,Ade) 5 yards from MSU09 to MSU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
96.9%
+0.2
Q4 8:25
Timeout Michigan State, clock 08:25
97.0%
+0.2
Q4 8:20
Makai Lemon run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
99.6%
+2.6
MSU · Drive 17DOWNS · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q4 8:20
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.6%
0.0
Q4 8:15
Brandon Tullis run for 3 yds to the MSU 28
99.0%
-0.7
Q4 7:45
Brandon Tullis run for 1 yd to the MSU 29
98.9%
0.0
Q4 7:09
Aidan Chiles sacked by Braylan Shelby for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 28
98.9%
0.0
Q4 6:30
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Omari Kelly
98.9%
0.0
USC · Drive 18TD · 10 plays · 28 yds
Q4 6:12
Eli Sanders run for 9 yds to the MSU 19
99.6%
+0.7
Q4 5:39
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q4 4:50
Waymond Jordan run for 3 yds to the MSU 13
99.7%
0.0
Q4 4:50
Timeout Michigan State, clock 04:50
99.7%
0.0
Q4 4:43
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 2 yds to the MSU 11
99.7%
0.0
Q4 4:43
Timeout Michigan State, clock 04:43
99.7%
0.0
Q4 4:34
Waymond Jordan run for 5 yds to the MSU 6 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 3:52
Waymond Jordan run for 5 yds to the MSU 1
99.7%
0.0
Q4 3:10
Timeout USC, clock 03:10
99.7%
0.0
Q4 2:57
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
99.8%
+0.1
MSU · Drive 19TD · 3 plays · 75 yds
Q4 2:57
Ryon Sayeri kickoff for 62 yds
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:50
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick Marsh
99.7%
-0.1
Q4 2:39
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Omari Kelly for 75 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Anthony Lucas) to the USC 0
99.1%
-0.6
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:27
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 42 yds for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
-5.3
TD · Q2 11:36
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 40 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q3 0:40
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 1 yd for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
-3.5