MICH
Michigan 30 at Nebraska 27
NEB2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Speed4x
Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey play
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NEB · Drive 1DOWNS · 11 plays · 70 yds
Q1 15:00
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
41.3%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Emmett Johnson run for 14 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST down
44.2%
+2.9
Q1 14:25
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Emmett Johnson
45.1%
+0.9
Q1 14:05
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 23 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST down
45.1%
0.0
Q1 13:30
Mekhi Nelson run for 11 yds to the MICH 27 for a 1ST down
47.0%
+1.8
Q1 13:06
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Nyziah Hunter
47.0%
0.0
Q1 12:51
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 13 yds to the MICH 14 for a 1ST down
47.0%
0.0
Q1 12:27
Jacory Barney Jr. run for 7 yds to the MICH 7
47.0%
0.0
Q1 11:55
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Jacory Barney Jr.
47.0%
0.0
Q1 11:43
Emmett Johnson run for 1 yd to the MICH 6
46.7%
-0.3
Q1 11:10
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 1 yd to the MICH 5
46.3%
-0.4
MICH · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q1 11:02
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the MICH 7
40.7%
-5.6
Q1 10:22
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Channing Goodwin for 5 yds to the MICH 12
40.7%
0.0
Q1 9:49
(09:49) PENALTY U-M False Start (Link,Evan) 5 yards from U-M12 to U-M07. NO PLAY.
40.7%
0.0
Q1 9:21
Bryce Underwood run for 6 yds to the MICH 13
40.8%
+0.1
Q1 8:44
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 24 yds
40.6%
-0.2
NEB · Drive 3MISSED FG · 7 plays · 11 yds
Q1 8:33
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 8 yds to the MICH 29
46.9%
+6.3
Q1 8:02
Emmett Johnson run for 1 yd to the MICH 28
47.0%
+0.1
Q1 7:32
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds to the MICH 24 for a 1ST down
46.7%
-0.3
Q1 6:53
Isaiah Mozee run for 1 yd to the MICH 23
47.0%
+0.3
Q1 6:19
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the MICH 21
47.1%
+0.1
Q1 5:34
Dylan Raiola sacked by Jaishawn Barham for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 26
46.9%
-0.3
Q1 5:00
Kyle Cunanan 44 yd FG MISSED
46.5%
-0.4
MICH · Drive 4FG · 10 plays · 46 yds
Q1 4:55
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the MICH 29
40.9%
-5.6
Q1 4:14
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 12 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST down
40.9%
0.0
Q1 4:00
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the MICH 45
39.5%
-1.4
Q1 3:29
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 16 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST down
39.0%
-0.5
Q1 2:57
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing Goodwin
38.3%
-0.6
Q1 2:42
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 11 yds to the NEB 28 for a 1ST down
38.3%
0.0
Q1 2:24
Semaj Morgan pass incomplete to Donaven McCulley
38.3%
0.0
Q1 2:16
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the NEB 28
38.3%
0.0
Q1 1:42
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing Goodwin
38.1%
-0.2
Q1 1:38
Dominic Zvada 46 yd FG GOOD
34.5%
-3.6
NEB · Drive 5INT · 4 plays · 11 yds
Q1 1:33
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds , Isaiah Mozee return for 23 yds to the NEB 23
35.7%
+1.2
Q1 1:21
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 8 yds to the NEB 31
39.6%
+3.9
Q1 0:49
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST down
39.6%
0.0
Q1 0:17
Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Cole Sullivan return for no gain to the NEB 37
39.6%
0.0
MICH · Drive 6TD · 1 play · 37 yds
Q1 0:11
Bryce Underwood run for 37 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
20.2%
-19.4
NEB · Drive 7PUNT · 6 plays · -9 yds
Q1 0:11
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
21.6%
+1.4
Q1 0:07
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Luke Lindenmeyer
24.9%
+3.3
Q1 0:00
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 7 yds to the NEB 32
24.9%
0.0
Q2 15:00
(15:00) PENALTY NEB False Start (Pritchett,Elijah) 5 yards from NEB32 to NEB27. NO PLAY.
24.9%
0.0
Q2 14:51
Dylan Raiola sacked by Rayshaun Benny for a loss of 11 yards to the NEB 16
24.9%
0.0
Q2 14:06
Archie Wilson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 37
24.9%
0.0
MICH · Drive 8FUMBLE · 3 plays · 15 yds
Q2 14:00
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulley
21.1%
-3.8
Q2 13:53
Jordan Marshall run for 7 yds to the MICH 44
21.1%
0.0
Q2 13:08
Bryce Underwood run for 8 yds to the NEB 48 Bryce Underwood fumbled, recovered by NEB DeShon Singleton
20.5%
-0.6
NEB · Drive 9FG · 8 plays · 31 yds
Q2 13:08
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds to the MICH 48
25.9%
+5.4
Q2 13:08
No Huddle-Shotgun Raiola,Dylan pass incomplete short left to Hunter,Nyziah thrown to U-M45 PENALTY U-M Pass Interference (Hill,Jyaire) 4 yards from U-M48 to U-M44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
26.2%
+0.2
Q2 13:08
Mekhi Nelson run for 2 yds to the MICH 42
26.2%
0.0
Q2 13:08
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 21 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST down
27.0%
+0.8
Q2 13:08
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the MICH 18
27.0%
0.0
Q2 13:08
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 4 yds to the MICH 14
27.0%
0.0
Q2 13:08
Dylan Raiola sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MICH 21
26.8%
-0.2
Q2 8:58
Kyle Cunanan 39 yd FG GOOD
30.9%
+4.1
MICH · Drive 10PUNT · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q2 8:58
Kyle Cunanan kickoff for 54 yds
29.0%
-2.0
Q2 8:49
Justice Haynes run for 11 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST down
23.9%
-5.1
Q2 8:12
Bryce Underwood sacked by Dasan McCullough for a loss of 6 yards to the MICH 30
21.9%
-2.0
Q2 7:13
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Justice Haynes for 3 yds to the MICH 27
22.4%
+0.5
Q2 6:45
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds to the MICH 34
22.4%
0.0
Q2 5:58
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 49 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 20 yds to the NEB 37
22.5%
+0.1
NEB · Drive 11TD · 7 plays · 63 yds
Q2 5:51
Emmett Johnson run for 5 yds to the NEB 42
26.8%
+4.3
Q2 5:13
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 11 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST down
27.4%
+0.5
Q2 4:43
Emmett Johnson run for 7 yds to the MICH 40
28.6%
+1.2
Q2 3:56
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 12 yds to the MICH 28 for a 1ST down
29.4%
+0.8
Q2 3:22
Emmett Johnson run for 1 yd to the MICH 27
29.4%
0.0
Q2 2:44
Emmett Johnson run for 1 yd to the MICH 26
29.4%
0.0
Q2 2:01
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
47.9%
+18.5
MICH · Drive 12TD · 2 plays · 75 yds
Q2 2:01
Kyle Cunanan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
45.7%
-2.2
Q2 1:51
Justice Haynes run for 75 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
20.6%
-25.1
NEB · Drive 13TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q2 1:51
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
20.6%
0.0
Q2 1:46
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Nyziah Hunter
26.9%
+6.3
Q2 1:39
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 10 yds to the NEB 35 for a 1ST down
26.9%
0.0
Q2 1:19
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Quinn Clark for 14 yds to the NEB 49 for a 1ST down
26.9%
0.0
Q2 1:03
Timeout Nebraska, clock 01:03
27.5%
+0.6
Q2 1:03
Dylan Raiola sacked by Jimmy Rolder for a loss of 9 yards to the NEB 40
28.0%
+0.5
Q2 0:56
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 43
27.5%
-0.5
Q2 0:23
Timeout Nebraska, clock 00:23
27.5%
0.0
Q2 0:13
Emmett Johnson run for 5 yds to the NEB 48
27.5%
0.0
Q2 0:01
Timeout Nebraska, clock 00:01
27.6%
+0.1
Q2 0:00
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 52 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
46.5%
+18.9
MICH · Drive 14PUNT · 6 plays · 22 yds
Q3 15:00
Kyle Cunanan kickoff for 63 yds
46.0%
-0.5
Q3 14:52
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 16 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST down
39.2%
-6.8
Q3 14:22
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the MICH 43
37.9%
-1.4
Q3 13:44
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 5 yds to the MICH 48
37.9%
0.0
Q3 12:57
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Justice Haynes for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 47
37.1%
-0.8
Q3 12:34
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 49 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for no gain to the NEB 3
37.4%
+0.3
NEB · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q3 12:27
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 6
46.1%
+8.7
Q3 11:53
Emmett Johnson run for 1 yd to the NEB 7
46.1%
0.0
Q3 11:00
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dane Key for 5 yds to the NEB 12
46.1%
0.0
Q3 10:23
PENALTY NEB Delay Of Game 4 yards from NEB12 to NEB08. NO PLAY.
45.7%
-0.3
Q3 10:15
Archie Wilson punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 40
45.7%
0.0
MICH · Drive 16FG · 8 plays · 22 yds
Q3 10:07
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds to the MICH 47
38.1%
-7.6
Q3 9:27
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Semaj Morgan
37.4%
-0.8
Q3 9:15
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
37.4%
0.0
Q3 8:35
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Marlin Klein for 16 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST down
37.1%
-0.3
Q3 8:13
Michigan Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declined
37.0%
-0.1
Q3 7:56
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulley
37.0%
0.0
Q3 7:48
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing Goodwin
37.0%
0.0
Q3 7:43
Dominic Zvada 56 yd FG GOOD
29.8%
-7.1
NEB · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · -6 yds
Q3 7:43
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
31.0%
+1.1
Q3 7:34
Emmett Johnson run for 1 yd to the NEB 26
36.4%
+5.4
Q3 7:00
Dylan Raiola sacked by Ernest Hausmann for a loss of 7 yards to the NEB 19
36.4%
0.0
Q3 6:21
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Emmett Johnson
36.4%
0.0
Q3 6:12
Archie Wilson punt for 42 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for no gain to the MICH 38
36.4%
0.0
MICH · Drive 18TD · 2 plays · 62 yds
Q3 6:05
Jordan Marshall run for 8 yds to the MICH 46
29.8%
-6.6
Q3 5:40
Jordan Marshall run for 54 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
15.4%
-14.4
NEB · Drive 19FG · 15 plays · 55 yds
Q3 5:40
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
16.2%
+0.9
Q3 5:10
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Mekhi Nelson for 4 yds to the NEB 21
16.5%
+0.2
Q3 5:00
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Luke Lindenmeyer
16.5%
0.0
Q3 4:51
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 3 yds to the NEB 18
17.3%
+0.8
Q3 4:51
PENALTY U-M UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Hillman,Brandyn) 15 yards from NEB18 to NEB33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
17.3%
0.0
Q3 4:29
Mekhi Nelson run for 6 yds to the NEB 39
18.0%
+0.8
Q3 4:01
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 18 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST down
18.1%
+0.1
Q3 3:14
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 9 yds to the MICH 34
19.3%
+1.2
Q3 2:44
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 5 yds to the MICH 29 for a 1ST down
19.0%
-0.4
Q3 2:12
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 5 yds to the MICH 24
19.0%
0.0
Q3 1:41
Emmett Johnson run for 8 yds to the MICH 16 for a 1ST down
19.0%
0.0
Q3 1:10
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 3 yds to the MICH 13
17.3%
-1.6
Q3 0:37
Dylan Raiola sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the MICH 20
17.3%
0.0
Q3 0:00
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Raiola,Dylan pass complete deep right to Hunter,Nyziah caught at U-M00, for 0 yards to the U-M20 PENALTY NEB Illegal Touch-Pass (Hunter,Nyziah). NO PLAY.
16.9%
-0.5
Q4 14:56
Kyle Cunanan 38 yd FG GOOD
27.0%
+10.1
MICH · Drive 20PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q4 14:56
Kyle Cunanan kickoff for 64 yds
24.8%
-2.2
Q4 14:52
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Semaj Morgan
21.0%
-3.8
Q4 14:33
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Zack Marshall for 6 yds to the MICH 31
20.6%
-0.4
Q4 14:14
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Channing Goodwin
20.6%
0.0
Q4 14:05
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 42 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 2 yds to the NEB 29
20.6%
0.0
NEB · Drive 21PUNT · 4 plays · -5 yds
Q4 13:56
Emmett Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 27
23.0%
+2.3
Q4 13:32
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Nyziah Hunter
23.0%
0.0
Q4 13:13
Dylan Raiola sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the NEB 24
21.8%
-1.2
Q4 12:40
Archie Wilson punt for 56 yds
21.8%
0.0
MICH · Drive 22FG · 17 plays · 77 yds
Q4 12:29
Justice Haynes run for 13 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST down
20.0%
-1.8
Q4 11:53
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the MICH 38
20.0%
0.0
Q4 11:14
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the MICH 38
19.0%
-1.1
Q4 10:18
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 6 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST down
16.7%
-2.3
Q4 9:54
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the MICH 45
15.9%
-0.8
Q4 9:22
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulley
15.8%
-0.1
Q4 9:01
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Justice Haynes for 16 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST down
15.8%
0.0
Q4 8:41
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Anthony Simpson
15.6%
-0.2
Q4 8:32
Jordan Marshall run for no gain to the NEB 39
15.6%
0.0
Q4 7:47
Justice Haynes run for 19 yds to the NEB 20 for a 1ST down
14.9%
-0.7
Q4 7:22
Timeout Nebraska, clock 07:22
13.6%
-1.3
Q4 7:14
Bryce Underwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 21
13.6%
0.0
Q4 6:27
Bryce Underwood run for 12 yds to the NEB 9 for a 1ST down
13.1%
-0.5
Q4 5:53
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the NEB 8
12.3%
-0.8
Q4 5:14
Bryce Underwood run for 6 yds to the NEB 2
12.0%
-0.2
Q4 4:28
Bryce Underwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 3
11.7%
-0.3
Q4 3:54
Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD
9.7%
-2.0
NEB · Drive 23TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q4 3:54
Beckham Sunderland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
9.8%
+0.1
Q4 3:41
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 6 yds to the NEB 31
9.7%
-0.1
Q4 3:18
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 5 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST down
9.7%
0.0
Q4 3:07
Timeout Nebraska, clock 03:07
9.7%
0.0
Q4 2:59
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Dane Key
9.7%
0.0
Q4 2:31
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Cortez Mills Jr. for 10 yds to the NEB 46 for a 1ST down
9.7%
0.0
Q4 2:31
Dylan Raiola pass incomplete to Nyziah Hunter
9.7%
0.0
Q4 2:22
Nebraska Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass (Yards) declined
9.7%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 21 yds to the MICH 45
9.6%
-0.1
Q4 1:48
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 6 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST down
9.3%
-0.3
Q4 1:44
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Raiola,Dylan pass incomplete deep left to Hunter,Nyziah thrown to U-M03 PENALTY U-M Pass Interference (Earls,Shamari) 15 yards from U-M39 to U-M24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
9.7%
+0.4
Q4 1:38
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 21 yds to the MICH 3 for a 1ST down Michigan Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tré Williams) declined for a 1ST down
10.0%
+0.3
Q4 1:34
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
27.8%
+17.8
MICH · Drive 24END OF GAME · 7 plays · 7 yds
Q4 1:33
Kyle Cunanan kickoff for 11 yds , Kendrick Bell return for 1 yd to the NEB 45
23.4%
-4.4
Q4 1:29
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the NEB 42
14.6%
-8.8
Q4 1:29
Timeout Nebraska, clock 01:29
14.6%
0.0
Q4 1:24
Jordan Marshall run for 8 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST down
14.6%
0.0
Q4 1:24
Timeout Nebraska, clock 01:24
14.1%
-0.5
Q4 1:17
B. Underwood takes a knee
14.1%
0.0
Q4 0:00
B. Underwood takes a knee
11.2%
-3.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:51
Justice Haynes run for 75 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
-25.1
TD · Q1 0:11
Bryce Underwood run for 37 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
-19.4
TD · Q2 0:00
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 52 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+18.9